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The fantasy football landscape has turned into a Salvador Dali painting.
Sure, some usual suspects head up fantasy leader boards—Drew Brees, Marshawn Lynch, Julio Jones and Jimmy Graham grace the top five at their respective positions, for example—but unexpected performances and the ravages of injury have scrambled the field.
Is that Old Man Steve Smith in the top five at wide receiver? What are Ahmad Bradshaw and Matt Asiata doing among the top running backs?
The Fantasy Exchange is here to take a closer look at some of the shenanigans and let you know whether you are looking at a mirage or the real deal.
We are going to change things up a tad in this article, no longer focusing on the most recent games for players. Now that every team has played at least four games, we can look more reliably to the season-long numbers to glean information about how each player is being utilized by his team.
Buy
Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Tgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
47.6 | 1.30 | 1.89 | 19.6% | 86.4% | -33.0% |
One touchdown.
Two touchdowns.
Three touchdowns.
No score!
Percy Harvin fantasy owners needed a cold shower on Monday night after penalties stripped them of three touchdowns—two on consecutive plays. What could have been a special night turned to ash, another disappointing fantasy output for the dynamic wide receiver.
Aside from a 51-yard touchdown scamper that should have been called back because Harvin actually stepped out of bounds, things haven't quite shaped up like he or his fantasy owners had hoped this preseason. Fully healthy for the first time in a while, Harvin seems to be off the field more often than anyone expected. Perhaps the Seahawks are trying to mitigate injury risk.
At any rate, his disappointing output to date is a great buy low opportunity on a guy who has the ability to score from anywhere on the field. Indeed, all of his overturned touchdowns came from long distance on Monday night.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
55.2 | 0.49 | 3.68 | 73.1% | 8.9% | 33.3% | 11.0% | 15.6% |
Is it time to panic if you are a LeSean McCoy owner?
Perhaps. If you are looking to get a potential game-changer onto your roster, though, it might be the best time to buy. McCoy has seemed out of sorts, but so has the rest of the Philadelphia Eagles offense. Perhaps all those defensive and special teams touchdowns are throwing them out of rhythm.
It isn't just a rhythmic funk McCoy finds himself in these days—he has looked skittish at times, perhaps still feeling the effects of a nasty hit he took in Week 3. One thing is for sure, McCoy is still getting plenty of chances to score fantasy points for the Eagles. He is getting a third of his team's fantasy scoring opportunities, and it stands to reason he will eventually start capitalizing on those.
That is all not to mention an offensive line that should improve with time. Lane Johnson just made it back—though he seemed to struggle in his first game off suspension—and Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce should hopefully be back by Week 10. That's still a ways away if you are really counting on McCoy to produce huge numbers, but he could well be the key to a big playoff run.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Tgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
59.8 | 0.82 | 1.81 | 21.6% | 63.4% | 13.6% |
It has been a rough couple of weeks for Pierre Garcon, punctuated by his one-catch, four-yard performance against Richard Sherman and the Seattle Seahawks last week. The Washington offense isn’t what it was—a read-option, screen-heavy scheme—when he was a fantasy gold mine. DeSean Jackson has seemingly overtaken Garcon as the top receiver on the team.
Still, Garcon is an important part of that offense, and his schedule lightens up a bit after he squares off with Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals this week. Washington faces the Tennessee Titans, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Weeks 7 through 10, which should get him back on track in the fantasy realm if he doesn't turn things around this week.
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Miami Dolphins
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
19.8 | 0.79 | 1.78 | 21.9% | 0.0% | 18.0% | -9.0% | 7.1% |
The Knowshon Moreno seesaw continues.
At one point, Moreno was reportedly doubtful for the entire preseason. Lo and behold, he was healthy enough to play in the third preseason game and get a healthy chunk of Miami’s rushing attempts in Week 1. After his freak elbow injury in Week 2, we were told he might miss most of October at one point. Lo and behold, he is practicing this week.
Whether he plays a significant role in his first game or not remains to be seen—the Dolphins may well proceed cautiously with a guy who has been out of action for a few weeks. If he regains his Week 1 form along with his workload, though, Moreno is going to be a beastly addition to any fantasy squad looking to buy low or pick him up off waivers.
If Moreno’s game count is adjusted to one instead of two, given he was injured on his first carry against the Buffalo Bills, his FP Shares would jump from a decent 1.78 to an astounding 7.19, and his opportunity percentage would sit at 36 percent, among the best in the league at his position. Granted, the sample size would be limited to just one game there, but it’s clear he was a big part of that offense before he went down, and it stands to reason he will regain much of his workload once he’s fully healthy.
Andrew Hawkins, WR, Cleveland Browns
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Tgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
51.1 | 0.66 | 2.16 | 30.8% | 58.5% | -20.5% |
Andrew Hawkins continues his streak of failing to reach paydirt, but he is still a viable option in PPR formats. The Cleveland receiver is averaging over 10 targets per game to date, good for a healthy 30.8 percent of the team’s take. Even though he has caught just 24 of those for 271 yards, his 2.16 FP shares are good for 35th in the league at his position. Once he breaks the seal on those touchdowns, he is going to become a real asset.
Jared Cook, TE, St. Louis Rams
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
41.1 | 0.71 | 1.68 | 16.3% | 61.3% | -6.7% |
His teammates are getting all the fantasy publicity, but Jared Cook is quietly a decent option at tight end in St. Louis.
The perennial tease has yet to taste end zone success—though he should have against the Dallas Cowboys, dropping an easy touchdown in an excellent matchup—but he is seeing enough targets to merit a look on the waiver wire or a cheap trade. Perhaps Jimmy Graham is out this week, and you are looking for someone to fill the gap. Cook has as high upside as anyone who might be available.
Andre Holmes, WR, Oakland Raiders
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Tgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
31.8 | 0.99 | 1.92 | 18.4% | 52.4% | -9.1% |
There isn’t much to like about the Oakland Raiders. Tony Sparano takes over a team licking its wounds and coming off a bye, one with a bleak outlook on both sides of the ball. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had from that offense in the fantasy realm.
True, Sparano figures to pound the rock, diminishing the value of his receivers in the process. Andre Holmes has quietly been a big part of the offense in recent games, however, and he might be a great under-the-radar pickup if he is available.
Reggie Bush, RB, Detroit Lions
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
56.3 | 0.77 | 2.50 | 33.8% | 15.6% | 22.2% | 7.7% | 16.7% |
Reggie Bush is a bit of an enigma these days, a promising all-around back who has had a bit of a roller coaster season thus far.
Right now, the rollercoaster is at its nadir, at least if we are expecting Bush to climb back into fantasy relevance. Bush had an opportunity for a big game last week with Joique Bell sitting, but he was knocked from the game with an injury. That leaves him in doubt for Week 6—further driving his price down—with little to show for in the fantasy realm over the past several weeks.
When he does return from injury, he will likely share time with Bell. Thus far, Bush has seen 33.8 percent of the team's carries and 22.2 percent of the team's overall fantasy scoring opportunities despite Bell's meddling. He should get back on track from a fantasy perspective—even if "on track" means "serviceable RB2"—and he can probably be had for pennies on the dollar right now.
Hold
Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Tgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
71.2 | 1.62 | 4.22 | 19.9% | 67.7% | -6.7% |
He was a hold in here a few weeks ago, and Brian Quick remains that way through five weeks.
Why? Well, aside from the fact Austin Davis is playing rather well, Quick has been the team’s best receiver. Quick snagged two touchdowns against that woeful Philadelphia Eagles defense last week, continuing a streak of strong fantasy output this season. Quick is in the top 15 at his position despite having played one fewer game than all but one other receiver ahead of him, averaging 17.8 points per game in PPR formats and generally looking like a guy drafted at the top of the second round.
The only thing not to like thus far is his target percentage—he and surprising Terrance Williams are the only receivers in the top 15 below 20 percent. Still, his FP shares are healthy at 4.22, and it doesn't look like he will relinquish the No. 1 role in St. Louis anytime soon.
Sell
Antone Smith, RB, Atlanta Falcons
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
57.7 | 3.04 | 0.59 | 8.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 13.0% |
He was in this column last week, so of course Big Play Antone Smith would catch a 74-yard touchdown pass. As usual, though, his massive production came on a scant few touches.
There is just no way Smith can sustain his output with his current usage. It's certainly a romantic notion—as though he is certain to score from distance once a week to tickle our statistical fancies—but he is a massive risk in your starting lineup. Unless the Atlanta Falcons begin to utilize him more than 5.8 percent of the time, sell high while he is on the radar.
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Indianapolis Colts
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
82.1 | 1.17 | 3.04 | 32.2% | 9.5% | 18.5% | 23.8% | 17.7% |
Week 5 was the beginning of the precipitous fall we should see from Ahmad Bradshaw in the fantasy realm, at least if Trent Richardson stays healthy. It might still be a good time to sell on Bradshaw’s Q1 performance, however, especially if a team is in dire need of a running back.
It’s not as though Bradshaw will become completely useless, but his usage is not conducive to consistent fantasy output. He’s not Antone Smith, after all—capable of scoring from anywhere on any given play.
Dwayne Allen, TE, Indianpolis Colts
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
59.4 | 2.22 | 1.50 | 9.1% | 75.0% | 31.6% |
He keeps finding his way into the end zone, but Dwayne Allen remains a fantasy risk on a weekly basis.
That’s because he is receiving a meager 9.1 percent of his team’s passes, by far the lowest figure among the top 10 fantasy scorers at the position. Only teammate Coby Fleener is below 10 percent among the top 15 scorers. The fact the Indianapolis Colts pass the ball 31.6 percent more than the average team offsets his low target percentage a bit, but it shouldn't be enough to help him sustain his fantasy production. Unless you expect him to get to 13-plus touchdowns this season, which is his current pace.
Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans Saints
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
70.7 | 1.44 | 1.35 | 18.6% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 16.6% | 15.4% |
Do you remember what Pierre Thomas did in Week 4? Perhaps one of your leaguemates has forgotten after his Week 5 outburst.
Doomed to boom-or-bust status, Thomas is hardly in a position to deliver consistent fantasy output. He scored two long touchdowns last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what would have otherwise been a ho hum afternoon—he got just four carries, after all, though his eight receptions were a sight for sore PPR eyes.
The trouble with Thomas is Mark Ingram’s imminent return. The latter was having an outstanding start to his 2014 season before going down with injury, and he is coming back to an ever-crowded Saints backfield now that Khiry Robinson and Travaris Cadet have established themselves as legitimate options as well.
If you can get a deal done, it might be time to sell with Thomas grabbing just 13.9 percent of New Orleans’ fantasy scoring opportunities this season despite Ingram’s absence for the past several weeks. New Orleans is heading into a bye, which makes things difficult, but potential owners may have his Week 4 fiasco even further out of mind by the time the Saints are set to play in Week 7.
Needs More Flow
Branden Oliver, RB, San Diego Chargers
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | TmOpp%/GP | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
44.9 | 1.15 | 2.95 | 19.7% | 4.8% | 19.7% | 8.1% | 11.7% |
Good old No. 43 was back in action with the San Diego Chargers last week, this time an undrafted rookie out of Buffalo.
Branden Oliver burst onto the fantasy football scene in unlikely fashion, a massive performance off the bench against the top-ranked run defense in the league. His output topped the league in fantasy scoring for Week 5, and he might be the lead back for at least one more week with Ryan Mathews and Donald Brown potentially sidelined. So what should you do with your newfound waiver wire gem?
Well, quite simply, you start him this week and go from there. But do so knowing he is a relatively unproven commodity coming off the game of his life.
Louis Murphy, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
28.4 | 1.08 | 3.32 | 26.9% | 50.0% | -0.1% |
The offense has come to life in Tampa Bay over the last couple of weeks, not coincidentally with Mike Glennon having taken over under center.
Rookie Mike Evans was starting to come on with Glennon at the helm, but an injury has sidelined him for the time being. Louis Murphy has stepped up in his stead, making some big catches and scoring a decent number of fantasy points over the past couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see if he can sustain his productivity—his usage numbers certainly seem to indicate he can, given he has been targeted on 26.9 percent of Tampa Bay's passing plays when active.
He is a big risk in starting lineups, but Murphy might be a daily fantasy value until Evans returns.
Odell Beckham Jr, WR, New York Giants
PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Tgt%/GP | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
14.4 | 2.08 | 2.80 | 14.8% | 80.0% | 1.1% |
It was a dandy debut for Odell Beckham Jr with the New York Giants. He seemed to step right into fantasy relevance with a four-catch, 44-yard performance that included a touchdown. Beckham's usage numbers look pretty decent after one game, particularly his 2.8 FP shares. The question is whether this was a sign of things to come or merely the product of playing a bad defense that likely focused on incumbent fantasy studs Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and Larry Donnell.
Att% = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts that player received
Tgt%/GP = the percentage of a team's passing targets that player received in games played
Opp%GP = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts and targets combined that player received in games played
PPO = fantasy points per opportunity (PPR)
PPT = fantasy points per target (PPR)
TmPly/Avg = the number of plays the player's team ran versus the league average
TmAtt/Avg = the number of passing attempts the player's team ran versus the league average
FP Shares = the player's fantasy output crossed with his team usage
TmFP% = the percentage of a team's fantasy points scored by the player