Time flies when you're having fun... or panicking because your fantasy football team is 1-3.
Hopefully you have stayed tune right here and avoided such a situation, however. Here is this week's fantasy exchange heading into the second quarter of the season.
Buy
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
Has Tom Brady hit rock bottom? If he hasn’t, the Patriots are in real trouble.
Brady has been a shell of himself this season, and his Monday night debacle in Kansas City should have owners fleeing in panic. He is one of the worst fantasy quarterbacks on the year, with guys like Derek Carr, EJ Manuel and Kirk Cousins ahead of him in scoring. It looks like he may have lost his fastball and, perhaps, a bit of processing power. But he still has the ability to put up solid numbers if he can get right and start hitting open receivers.
The good news is that he would be a low-risk investment for anyone looking to buy. At this point, his fantasy owners may be giving him away for free. With byes just getting started, you could do worse than take a gamble on the future Hall of Famer.
Rashad Jennings, RB, New York Giants
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 6.2 | 0.41 | 1.00 | 34.2% | 5.1% | 19.2% | 21.7% | 5.7% |
Is anyone really selling on Rashad Jennings?
Last week was a bit of a letdown for the Giants running back in terms of fantasy scoring. He let a goal-line pass and sure touchdown slip through his fingers in the third quarter, after which he barely played thanks to a blowout.
Considering there are some experts out there who think selling Jennings is a wise decision, however, now might be the best time to buy. He is still the lead back in New York, even if Andre Williams happened to out-touch him last week. If you are a happy Jennings owner, don't let last week discourage you—he is still fifth in the league in fantasy scoring and garners a healthy 33.6 percent of his team's fantasy scorring opportunities on the year.
Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 12.0 | 0.52 | 3.71 | 63.0% | 18.2% | 37.1% | -3.2% | 19.8% |
Chris Johnson was brought in to shore up the running game for the Jets, but they needn’t have looked further than their own potential stud—Chris Ivory.
Of course, Ivory has flashed his potential in the past, only to get knocked out for weeks at a time due to injury. Hopefully that wouldn't be the case for him going forward, but the injury risk might be on his fantasy owner's mind, if you catch my drift.
As it turns out, his 71-yard touchdown in Week 1 wasn't a complete mirage. Ivory is getting a ton of fantasy shares in that backfield, and Chris Johnson isn't really doing much to change that. Fortunately for buyers, Ivory managed to stay out of the end zone last week—yet he still saw a healthy 3.71 FP shares—meaning his overall output was a bit depressed.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmTgt% | Rec% |
| 20.7 | 0.51 | 4.35 | 21.0% | 47.6% |
These aren't Larry Fitzgerald's statistics for his last game—he really has scored just 20.7 PPR points on the season.
We talked about Fitzgerald last week, and he put up a big fat zero last week. Of course that’s because he was on a bye, but that bought a reprieve for owners looking to make a deal. With Carson Palmer’s recovery from his nerve issue reportedly slow-going, you can further sell Fitzgerald’s owner on a deal by feeding distrust in quarterback Drew Stanton.
Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPR FP% |
| 34.6 | 0.61 | 2.83 | 69.0% | 7.2% | 30.8% | 15.2% |
Like Fitzgerald, Montee Ball’s off week extends the opportunity to buy. Ball is currently nabbing over 30 percent of his team’s fantasy opportunities, a fact he will eventually exploit for big fantasy games. Ball's awful performance against the vaunted Seattle Seahawks defense still has fantasy owners washing the sour aftertaste out of their mouths—take advantage while you can.
Hold
Eddie Royal, WR, San Diego Chargers
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 27.5 | 3.21 | 4.94 | 17.9% | 71.4% | 7.8% |
It seems there may be fire where we have seen heavy smoke in San Diego.
Eddie Royal is on fire, catching 15 balls for 190 yards and five touchdowns. Royal has teased us before, however—he started his 2013 campaign with similar numbers—17 receptions for 236 yards and four touchdowns through four weeks. So why trust him going forward?
Well, for starters, Royal suffered a toe injury in the middle of last season that had him on the injury report the rest of the way. Injuries are unpredictable, so hopefully he will stay healthy going forward. Even more important is the fact he is being targeted more this year through four games than last year—29 to 20 thus far. That may not seem like a big difference, but two-plus targets more per game is significant.
Clay Harbor, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 14.9 | 0.86 | 3.22 | 21.6% | 100.0% | 4.0% |
Perhaps we are jumping the gun putting Clay Harbor in the "hold" section after just one game, but it was quite the 2014 debut for the Jaguars tight end.
Harbor was targeted a whopping eight times by his rookie quarterback en route to a nice fantasy output in PPR formats. He didn't make it into the end zone—otherwise it would have been a great day—but it seems that Harbor will be a big part of the offense going forward. With Marcedes Lewis on IR and the Jaguars likely needing to score a ton of points to keep up with that woeful defense, Harbor seems like an excellent under-the-radar option going forward.
Sell
Chris Johnson, RB, New York Jets
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 14.1 | 1.76 | 1.56 | 22.2% | 6.1% | 12.9% | -18.8% | 23.2% |
Last week’s top-10 output was fine and dandy for Chris Johnson, especially considering he was going up against one of the league’s best run defenses when the Detroit Lions came to town. The best part about it is he actually created some value in a potential trade—everything else is a mirage.
A 35-yard touchdown scamper thanks to a horrible missed tackle made his day seem much nicer than it actually was. Outside the touchdown run, Johnson averaged 1.8 yards per carry on five rushing attempts. Not only is that an abhorrent average, but he was out-touched by Chris Ivory nearly three-to-one.
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Indianapolis Colts
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 13.2 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 22.0% | 4.9% | 13.4% | 0.6% | 12.1% |
He has been quietly consistent in the first quarter of the season, but it might be time to cash in on Ahmad Bradshaw’s success and grab someone who has been a bit more stable over the years.
Despite his recent and unprecedented success catching touchdown passes—he has four on the year after having compiled just three throughout his career—Bradshaw isn't being utilized enough to be considered safe going forward. He is currently sitting at 16.8 percent of his team's fantasy scoring opportunities, far lower than any of the other running backs in the top 10 on the year. That is simply unsustainalble unless you believe he will continue to score touchdowns at this rate.
Antone Smith, RB, Atlanta Falcons
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 12.2 | 3.05 | 0.76 | 18.2% | 0.0% | 6.3% | -3.2% | 13.5% |
Big Play Antone Smith seems to strike once a week these days, scoring a long touchdown like it’s no big deal. He has been particularly valuable for anyone who may have drafted him in best-ball leagues, providing unexpected points that might be backfilling fantasy scores with players injured, underperforming or on a bye thus far this season.
For anyone who might be tempted to pick him up and start him, however, beware—there are few riskier starts than Smith.
That is because, despite being the 20th-best fantasy scorer thus far in standard formats, Smith is garnering a ridiculously low 5.7 percent of his team’s fantasy opportunities through four games. That is one massive red flag, especially considering Steven Jackson, Devonta Freeman and Jacquizz Rodgers are all getting more opportunities to score fantasy points than Smith.
Starting Smith is like playing the same number at the roulette table every time. You might get lucky, but you are liable to lose your shirt.
Steve Johnson, WR, San Francisco 49ers
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 8.2 | 3.60 | 0.55 | 6.7% | 50.0% | -15.7% |
Steve Johnson caught his first touchdown as a San Francisco 49er, a week after having a big game against the Chicago Bears. It seems like his arrow is pointing up in the fantasy realm, right?
Well, based on his usage, you might want to sell high—if you can sell at all, at any rate. Johnson scored just 8.2 points in PPR formats despite the touchdown, after all.
Travaris Cadet, RB, New Orleans Saints
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 12.0 | 1.71 | 0.71 | 7.7% | 13.6% | 11.9% | -8.7% | 14.3% |
What is happening in the New Orleans Saints backfield?
Mark Ingram went down with injury, which should have created big opportunity for Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson. Travaris Cadet was in the mix, too, but who expected him to take over the pass-catching duties? Thomas seemed like an afterthought against the Dallas Cowboys last week, touching the ball just four times while his running mates stole the fantasy show. And it was a sad show.
Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 11.8 | 1.13 | 1.91 | 16.2% | 83.3% | 4.0% |
It’s difficult to tell how many times Allen Hurns is going to get loose and be wide open on deep routes this season, but opposing defenses will eventually get the hint, right?
Hurns has had multiple such instances this year, some of which he has botched otherwise he might be among the top fantasy receivers right now. With Cecil Shorts III sidelined with injury again and Marqise Lee making his way back from one himself, it might be tempting to hang onto Hurns, but that would be playing with fire. He was only targeted on 16.2 percent of rookie quarterback Blake Bortles' passes last week despite the injuries around him, and he has only commanded 17.3 percent of his team's targets on the entire season.
Dwayne Allen, TE, Indianapolis Colts
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 12.8 | 3.27 | 0.94 | 7.3% | 100.0% | 15.2% |
Dwayne Allen was the sixth-best fantasy tight end in Week 4, but don't let that fool you.
The third-year pro has been the beneficiary of a couple of touchdowns this season despite the fact he is being used relatively little. Allen saw just 7.3 percent of Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck's passes last week, and he just happened to convert one of those for a touchdown in a blowout victory.
There are many more options at his position that are either more consistent or have bigger upside. If you can get something for Allen, do it. If not, well, tread lightly.
Need More Flow
Jarius Wright, WR, Minnesota Vikings
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 21.2 | 1.32 | 7.07 | 33.3% | 80.0% | -15.7% |
It was a triumphant debut for rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater as he led the Minnesota Vikings to victory against the favored Atlanta Falcons. He was a breath of fresh air at the position, particularly for fantasy owners of skill positions. Which players would benefit the most, however, would be an interesting study.
Unlike, say, Allen Hurns, Wright got a ton of fantasy points last week in large part to his heavy involvement in the offense. Hence, his FP shares were through the roof at 7.07. Of course, that was the first time he has seen significant action this season, and his target percentage sits at just 17.6 percent for the year—slightly higher than the aforementioned Hurns.
It's hard to tell if his high usage was a byproduct of Bridgewater starting, a one-off game plan or the bona fide truth. It's also likely he was on most waiver wires this week; if you picked him up, be wary of starting him until we see more.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings
| PPR | PPO | FP Shares | TmAtt% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | Vol/Avg | PPR FP% |
| 16.2 | 0.77 | 4.31 | 40.9% | 10.0% | 28.4% | 13.9% | 16.4% |
Like Jarius Wright, Jerick McKinnon came out of nowhere to post a top-10 fantasy day. He carved up the woeful Atlanta defense like a steak knife through filet mignon to the tune of 19 touches for 152 total yards. He even scored a touchdown near the goal line only to have it called back by the replay assistant.
The question is whether this was a breakout performance heralding great things from the rookie or whether it’s an illusion borne of Atlanta’s defensive ineptitutde. For now adding him to your bench would be wise, but starting him would be foolish.
Att% = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts that player received
Tgt% = the percentage of a team's passing targets that player received
Opp% = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts and targets combined that player received
PPO = fantasy points per opportunity (PPR)
PPT = fantasy points per target (PPR)
TmPly/Avg = the number of plays the player's team ran versus the league average
TmAtt/Avg = the number of passing attempts the player's team ran versus the league average
FP Shares = the player's fantasy output crossed with his team usage
TmFP% = the percentage of a team's fantasy points scored by the player
