Music theory has this concept called “deceptive cadence.” It is a concept from classical music where the flow of music sounds like it is about to resolve to the dominant—the key of the song or piece of music—and instead falls down to the relative minor, which does not resolve. It can move the piece in an entirely new direction or simply create tension.
That’s what it felt like after Week 1. We saw a pattern where there possibly couldn’t be one, and instead of resolving to a nice dominant chord, it fell to the sad minor. One week does not a pattern make. What did Week 2 tell us about the fantasy exchange, however?
Here is a refresher on the statistics used below:
- Att% = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts that player received
- Tgt% = the percentage of a team's passing targets that player received
- Opp% = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts and targets combined that player received
- PPO = fantasy points per opportunity (PPR)
- PPT = fantasy points per target (PPR)
- TmPly/Avg = the number of plays the player's team ran versus the league average
- TmAtt/Avg = the number of passing attempts the player's team ran versus the league average
- FP Shares = the player's fantasy output crossed with his team usage
- TmFP% = the percentage of a team's fantasy points scored by the player
Here are this week's risers, fallers and head-scratchers:
Buy
Charles Clay
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 10.1 | 0.39 | 2.53 | 25.0% | 87.5% | -12.1% |
He has had a slow start to the season, but Charles Clay is going to warm up sooner than later.
Despite the rough outing all around last week in Buffalo, there are signs auguring good things for Clay going forward. He got to double-digit fantasy points in PPR formats, and it was largely due to the 25 percent of the team’s targets he received. His fantasy shares are healthy at 2.53 considering he didn’t score a touchdow
Clay has been a favorite target for quarterback Ryan Tannhill in the past, and he was a nice safety valve last week. As the Dolphins scheme to get thim the ball more in situations where he can do some damage, his fantasy output will increase.
Justin Hunter
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 4.6 | 0.43 | 0.84 | 18.2% | 33.3% | -9.3% |
Well, it seems the Dallas Cowboys are no pushovers on defense after all. At least for one week, anyway.
The Tennessee Titans were unable to get anything going outside of Delanie Walker, and Hunter’s promising matchup turned out to be a bitter disappointment. That doesn’t mean you should give up on Hunter, though.
Much of his poor performance had to do with missed connections, like in Week 1. Jake Locker was simply off for much of the game—that is unless he was throwing the ball to Walker, for some reason—and Hunter’s output suffered as a result. He still got six targets and a decent target share, however. In fact, Hunter leads the Titans in targets through two weeks.
That bodes well for his fantasy futures, and his price only got cheaper after the disappointing Week 2 showing.
Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp% | TmPly/Avg | TmFP% |
| 7.1 | 0.44 | 1.38 | 36.4% | 15.4% | 27.1% | -37.6% | 13.3% |
It has been an interesting start to Fred Jackson’s season. On the one hand, he has gotten decent opportunity that has led to a few big plays. On the other, he hasn’t scored many fantasy points yet due to a lack of touchdowns.
Through two weeks, however, Jackson has received a healthy 22.6 percent of the Bills' fantasy scoring opportunities. By comparison, C.J. Spiller is at 27 percent, not too much higher.
Jackson is not a sexy name, but he is bound to put up some quality fantasy scores in the coming weeks. If you are hurting for a running back—given last week's carnage, you might be—Jackson is likely a cheap pickup.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp% | TmPly/Avg | TmFP% |
| 8.1 | 0.51 | 1.44 | 59.1% | 7.1% | 23.5% | -28.1% | 10.1% |
Schedule and injury have conspired to sink Eddie Lacy and his fantasy owners during the first two weeks of the seaosn.
The reigning Rookie of the Year has been a dud thus far on the road against the Seattle Seahawks defense, buoyed by the 12th Man, and at home against the best run defense in the land in the New York Jets. That is no longer the case going forward.
In fairness, the Detroit Lions—Lacy's next opponent—do boast a quality defensive front. The Lions are in the middle of the pack in fantasy points-against with running backs, however, and Lacy had a pretty good outing against them last year. He might not go off for 150 and a pair of scores, but this is the week he begins to bounce back. It may be the best time to buy.
Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 5.5 | 0.21 | 1.10 | 20.0% | 57.1% | -3.8% |
He has had a slow start to the 2014 season, but Heath Miller is lurking below the surface, waiting for everyone to forget about him before he pounces on unsuspecting fantasy owners.
Miller scored just 5.5 fantasy points in PPR formats last week on 20 percent of Pittsburgh’s pass attempts. While the latter number may not be massive, he is still clearly a big part of that offense. The biggest issue was quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s inability to hit open receivers in Week 2.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 12.1 | 1.35 | 2.07 | 17.1% | 66.7% | -3.8% |
Banking on Travis Kelce early this season was a risky proposition. That concern has melted away after the first couple of weeks of action.
Kelce was sparingly used in Week 1—to the point where head coach Andy Reid all but lamented that fact—yet he caught three passes on five targets for 49 yards on just 18 snaps. His snap count nearly doubled last week, and his production followed suit. He was targeted six times—mostly on intermediate-to-deep throws—and wound up with 12.1 points in PPR formats. Not too shabby for a guy who still only played 32 snaps. His limited snap count is the reason why his target percentage is so low at 17.1 percent, but he managed to get his FP shares to 2.07 with the opportunities he was afforded.
As the Chiefs get more comfortable using Kelce, his snap count should continue to rise. It’s unclear whether Reid envisions Kelce starting this season, but if he averages 40-50 snaps per game he will be a viable every-week starter from a fantasy perspective.
Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 11.0 | 0.60 | 3.33 | 30.3% | 50.0% | -9.3% |
The stock may have bottomed out on Victor Cruz at this point. Whoever drafted him may be desperate for help, especially if he has fallen victim to the injurypocalypse. There may be no better time to buy than now.
Cruz isn’t producing a ton of fantasy points yet, and obvious statements are obvious. After quarterback Eli Manning all but forgot about him for much of Week 1, he garnered 10 targets in Week 2. Unfortunately, he caught just half of them for 60 yards. That 50 percent catch rate actually improved from Week 1—he is now up to 43.8 percent on the season.
There is no guarantee that Cruz’s quality of targets will improve with Manning seemingly on a quick descent down Mount Doom, but Week 2 was an encouraging improvement for his fantasy prospects. If he gets 10 targets a game, he will eventually cash in on a few big plays, as he has been wont to do in the past.
Hold
James Jones, WR, Oakland Raiders
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 24.2 | 1.09 | 8.07 | 33.3% | 64.3% | -10.2% |
Despite being the culprit in one of the best-worst plays of the season last week, James Jones is still a quality receiver to own in the fantasy football realm.
The reasons are two-fold—the Oakland Raiders figure to be throwing the ball a lot thanks to that porous defense, and Jones has become a favorite target for rookie quarterback Derek Carr.
Consider that Jones saw a third of his team's targets last week, a healthy figure for any wide receiver in the fantasy realm. He owned one of the top FP shares from last weekend at 8.07, and his rapport with Carr along with that poor defense will likely keep him fantasy-relevant.
Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp% | TmPly/Avg | TmFP% |
| 11.1 | 0.62 | 2.98 | 53.6% | 10.3% | 29.5% | -35.5% | 23.8% |
A sore foot has been a thorn in the sides of Andre Ellington and his fantasy owners. He hasn’t been able to get it going yet in 2014 despite plenty of opportunity, though he did crack double-digit scoring last week in PPR formats.
He is getting the majority share in that backfield, however, and it’s only a matter of time before he hits a big game. That is, of course, unless his foot gets worse.
The good news is that Ellington’s bye is coming up, which should hopefully give him enough time to heal up.
Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 30.2 | 1.44 | 12.81 | 42.4% | 71.4% | -9.3% |
After his Week 2 performance, it might be tempting to deal Delanie Walker if there is a taker. Unless you have Jimmy Graham or Julius Thomas, stick with the talented Tennessee Titans tight end.
Don’t take my word for it… well, take my word for it in this film study that coincidentally dropped this week.
Steve Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 13.1 | 0.71 | 4.52 | 34.5% | 60.0% | -38.0% |
Skepticism abounded after Steve Smith’s Week 1 outburst, and much of that could be found around these parts. Smith scored on a fluky, 80-yard touchdown, and the Baltimore Ravens weren’t likely to throw the ball 62 times.
More information was needed, though, and it seems we’ve gotten it. Week 2 showed that Smith’s output was no fluke. There was a period of time in last week’s Thursday night debacle where Smith seemed to be targeted on every pass play. He wound up with a target share of 34.5 percent, and he would have had an excellent fantasy output had he been able to haul in one of his end zone targets.
It seems Mr. Smith is worth keeping after all.
Andrew Hawkins, WR, Cleveland Browns
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 13.0 | 0.58 | 3.80 | 29.3% | 50.0% | -12.3% |
Andrew Hawkins has been the quiet night on many fantasy football benches thus far this season. It might be time to get him in the game.
He hasn’t been lighting it up, but Hawkins is just outside the top 20 fantasy scorers in PPR formats despite failing to score a touchdown. Quarterback Brian Hoyer has targeted him often, though his 50 percent catch rate last weekend wasn't particularly great. Hawkins owns a shiny 3.8 FP shares, a great number considering he hasn't gotten into the end zone. He is a startable WR3 in PPR formats until further notice.
Sell
Darren Sproles, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp% | TmPly/Avg | TmFP% |
| 30.8 | 2.80 | 1.53 | 14.3% | 18.9% | 16.9% | -73.3% | 36.3% |
This was no easy call.
Darren Sproles is a bit of a mystery going forward. On the one hand, he was the top fantasy-scoring running back in Week 2. Chip Kelly has figured out a way to maximize Sproles in that offense, and he has sizzled thus far as a result.
On the other, Sproles’ usage is cause for concern. Despite scoring 30.8 points in PPR formats last week, Sproles garnered just 1.53 FP shares. That’s because he was in on just 16.9 percent of his team’s fantasy scoring opportunities. Even though it seemed like he touched the ball every other time he was on the field, he only got 11 touches.
Granted, he is going to have PPR value because he will invariably get six or seven targets a game, but those long touchdown plays can dry up any time. Beware the fantasy cliff.
Mohamed Sanu, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 17.4 | 3.60 | 2.90 | 16.7% | 75.0% | -48.7% |
Opportunity knocked in Cincinnati when A.J. Green went out with injury last week. Mohamed Sanu answered the door.
The third-year receiver wound up with a nice day, scoring 17.4 points in PPR formats and rewarding anyone who might have started him as a flier. Those rewardees were a bit lucky, however—Sanu’s performance was a bit of a mirage.
That’s because, despite Green’s absence, Sanu got just 16.7 percent of his team’s targets in Week 2. He just happened to cash in on a 76-yard touchdown despite garnering just four targets. He also benefited from 50 passing yards on a trick play.
Green will be back, and Sanu will continue to be a boom-or-bust play with a high likelihood of busting from week to week.
WAITING FOR FLOW
Bobby Rainey, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| PPR FP | PPO | FP Shares | Att% | Tgt% | Opp% | TmPly/Avg | TmFP% |
| 20.4 | 0.82 | 8.37 | 73.3% | 14.3% | 48.1% | -45.0% | 33.3% |
Bobby Rainey was a revelation for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, to the tune of 174 total yards. He started in place of injured Doug Martin, whose only revelation was more mediocrity in Week 1.
The problem is that Martin is the incumbent starter, and he is slated to come back this week. Whether or not the two are going in opposite directions with regard to playing time will be interesting to see starting on Thursday night—Rainey clearly showed he was capable of shouldering the workload in Week 2, but Martin could still get the majority share in that backfield.
He is a worthwhile pickup and, perhaps, Week 3 start, but he may well fall back to fantasy irrelevance if Martin shakes off that injury and regains his 2012 form. We'll know more after this week.
Jason Avant, WR, Carolina Panthers
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 16.4 | 1.63 | 3.38 | 20.6% | 71.4% | -27.3% |
Cam Newton made his triumphant return to the starting lineup from a cracked rib, and the main beneficiary was… Jason Avant. That’s right, the forgotten No. 3 receiver received 20.6 percent of Newton’s targets, scoring a touchdown on a laser and having himself a fine fantasy day in the end.
It seems likely Avant’s fantasy output was a one-week affair—we have seen this before, after all. His usage was enough to merit a closer look, though. The Panthers aren’t exactly loaded at the receiver position, and Newton might find Avant to be the most trustworthy in the corps for all we know.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
| PPR FP | PPT | FP Shares | Tgt% | Rec% | TmAtt/Avg |
| 10.0 | 0.71 | 1.67 | 16.7% | 71.4% | -10.2% |
A week ago, Jarrett Boykin would have been a decent pickup. Then Week 2 happened.
The Green Bay Packers receiver was swiftly supplanted on the depth chart by rookie Davante Adams, a bit unexpected given Boykin’s spot seemed secure. Perhaps Boykin’s poor play early in the game contributed to the change.
Adams got in the game and promptly garnered seven targets, catching five of them including a big yard reception.
Given the opportunity he was given and his response, Adams is certainly worth a stash on your bench, assuming he was unowned to his point in redraft formats. If he has truly overtaken Boykin as the No. 3 receiver, he will have similar value to James Jones in years’ past. There is, however, the possibility that Adams slides back down to No. 4, particularly if he makes a big mistake.
