Remember 2004? Aside from being the year of the Wardrobe Malfunction, the birth of Facebook and the death of Friends, that is.
Pepperidge Farm remembers. So does NFL referee-turned-analyst Mike Pereira, and he brings good tidings of great joy for fantasy owners if recent tweets are any indication.
Interesting day at NFL officiating clinic. Biggest point of emphasis for 2014..Illegal contact and defensive holding. More offense!
— Mike Pereira (@MikePereira) July 19, 2014
Last time the NFL had this as a major emphasis was 2004 and the number of illegal contact fouls went from 79 to 191.
— Mike Pereira (@MikePereira) July 19, 2014
The League average last season was 48 points per game. I think that was an all-time record. How about a littlle balance.
— Mike Pereira (@MikePereira) July 19, 2014
The focus on illegal contact and defensive holding is being dubbed the "Legion of Boom rule," an homage to cornerback Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman and Co. Thanks to Seattle's artful practice of constant contact in the secondary—that is to say, committing defensive penalties on nearly every passing play knowing the officials will swallow their whistles for most, as Pereira believes—defenses around the league are liable to see an uptick in illegal contact penalties downfield. This could be a boon to opposing offenses.
Taking a closer look at the past paints an intriguing picture, however. Here is the average fantasy output in PPR scoring formats for the top 20 players at each position from 2003 to 2005.
QB | RB | WR | TE | |
2003 | 264.4 | 284.1 | 254.7 | 115.6 |
2004 | 288.8 | 261.8 | 262.8 | 138.1 |
2005 | 255.3 | 254.3 | 254.0 | 149.3 |
At first blush, this seems like it could have a nominal effect on fantasy scoring. After all, we have seen an unprecedented rise in recent seasons, at least in the passing game. How much of a spike could it really produce if officials focus on illegal contact?
Incidentally, Mushin Muhammad led the league in fantasy scoring at wide receiver 10 seasons ago, followed by Javon Walker and Joe Horn. How is that from a blast from the past?
Back to the present, however—does a change like this impact the 2014 season? If we use the 2004 Officiating Bump as a baseline, it could be a significant factor.
Note the boost quarterbacks and wide receivers got in 2004 relative to 2003 and 2005. That is a 9.2% increase in fantasy scoring at quarterback and 3.2% at wide receiver. It accompanied a precipitous decline in scoring for the top running backs, which was down 7.9% from 2003 to 2004. Of course, the running back position kept dropping—as the tight end position kept rising—making it difficult to ascertain whether penalties had any measureable effect on those two positions.
Much has been made about the increasing pass-happy nature of the NFL in recent years, and fantasy scoring is booming at quarterback as a result. The top 20 quarterbacks scored an average of 264.4 fantasy points a decade ago, during the 2004 Officiating Bump. The same increase would result in an average of 355.5 points for the top 20 quarterbacks in 2014. Similarly, a correlating increase at receiver would result in an average of 280.8 points among the top 20, up from 180.2 a decade ago.
Those would be eye-popping numbers, if they are attainable at any rate.
Of course, this could all simply be a coincidence. Moreover, there may not be room for a marked increase in scoring at certain positions. Fantasy football is like playing stocks, and the quarterbacks and wide receivers are like the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq—they keep climbing and threatening records, but is the bubble ready to burst? That is a larger question for another time, however.
Then there is the fact Illegal contact and defensive holding aren’t the only penalties that affect the passing game. Here is a look at those two plus defensive pass interference between 2003 and 2005.
2003 | 2004 | 2005 | ||||
Penalties | Yards | Penalties | Yards | Penalties | Yards | |
Illegal Contact | 51 | 262 | 146 | 692 | 110 | 550 |
Pass Interference | 222 | 3608 | 177 | 3223 | 200 | 3602 |
Defensive Holding | 150 | 724 | 123 | 651 | 187 | 903 |
Note that these numbers differ than those Pereira brought up in his Tweets—these are from Pro Football Reference.
Either way, there was clearly a huge jump in illegal contact penalties from 2003 to the following season. What Pereira failed to mention was the decrease in defensive pass interference it accompanied. Of course, this relationship could actually be beneficial to fantasy scoring. Fewer penalty yards means more opportunity to gain yards, though it’s difficult to believe 400 or so penalty yards would make such a huge difference.
One difference might be how often pass interference gets teams at the goal line—the running back’s wheelhouse—versus illegal contact or defensive holding, which are five-yard penalties. These penalties are automatic first downs, however, and the overall number increased by 23 from 2003 to 2004. Of course, there was another increase of 51 the following season, so that may not tell us much.
The biggest effect might be intangible, however. Increased scrutiny could lead to softer secondaries around the league, something most offenses will exploit. Any little edge an offense gains could have a big effect in the fantasy realm. The Butterfly Effect is in play here. The question is whether a flap of its wings will create a hurricane like it may have in the past, or if this is much ado about nothing.