The daily fantasy space has ballooned into something that is casting an ever-increasing shadow on traditional fantasy football. Sites are popping up everywhere, and the big players have only gotten exponentially bigger over the years. Why not dive in?
You all already know what daily fantasy football is, and you should be regular consumers of all the content we provide here at FBG. Mine is just a new voice to a growing chorus of fantasy dispensers. Hopefully I don't turn it into a cacophany.
This will by my daily debut at Footballguys, wading into the wonderful and murky waters that is fantasy football in this format. Austin Lee and I already discuss some daily fantasy over at The Nine Route podcast, but I wanted to put some of my thoughts down on virtual paper.
For now, this column will focus mainly at Draft Kings with a peek over at FanDuel. Without further ado, here are this week's daily musings:
Draft Kings
Stack of the Week
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints - $8,100
Travaris Cadet, RB, New Orleans Saints - $3,000
Not only is this a home game for the New Orleans Saints—where Drew Brees has historically been far better when sifting through his home-road splits—but it is a tantalizing matchup. The Saints go up against the Green Bay Packers in a battle of offensive titans. Of course, the Saints haven’t quite been themselves this season, which is the reason why Brees is semi-affordable.
More importantly, Vegas thinks this is going to be a barn-burner. The over-under for this game is set at a whopping 55.5, and the Saints are somehow narrowly favored despite the disparity in records between the two teams. That means a ton of scoring, likely without a big lead for the Saints who may actually find themselves playing catch-up most of the game if Aaron Rodgers and Co. have anything to say about it.
Any number of Saints skill players would make for a nice stack, but the best way to offset Brees’ cost may be to slot running back Travaris Cadet into your daily lineups. This is especially true in GPP tournaments, where Cadet has a high ceiling and likely a low ownership percentage. As minimum salary guys go, Cadet is at the top of the list for Week 8.
True, Cadet is a bit of a gamble compared to, say, receiver Brandin Cooks or even injured tight end Jimmy Graham, but it is a good bet he will retain most of the pass-catching workload out of the backfield. We all know how much the Saints like to throw to their running backs—Thomas had 29 targets before his injury, and Cadet has 21 himself despite his spot on the depth chart. It’s conceivable he will see seven to eight targets on the day to go along with a handful of carries.
All that to say, Cadet is a much nicer choice as a high-upside guy in GPP games, whereas you might want to find someone with a higher floor in cash games.
PlayS
Quarterback
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys - $7,400
The Dallas Cowboys are favored by nine points at home against the hapless Washington Football Team, and the over-under is set at 49. That means Vegas is pegging them to score four touchdowns on the day.
Even though the spread would indicate DeMarco Murray is going to have a big game—a likely scenario regardless—the Cowboys aren’t going to score all those touchdowns on the ground. Washington has an awful secondary, one that is giving up a ton of fantasy points this season—11th-most standard points per game, a ranking that would be even worse had three touchdowns former Seahawks receiver Percy Harvin scored not been nullified in Week 5. With receivers Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams humming, Gavin Escobar coming on strong and a run game that is going to keep Washington offense, look for a big game out of Romo.
Running Back
Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - $8,800
When poring over moneylines and spreads for this weekend’s games, Matt Forte doesn’t stand out as an outstanding option. The Bears are seven-point road dogs against the New England Patriots, which points toward a heavier lean on the passing game.
Of course, Forte is a huge part of that passing game. Hence, he leads the entire league in receptions.
That’s right, not teammates Brandon Marshall nor Alshon Jeffery or other big-name receivers like Cowboy Dez Bryant or Steeler Antonio Brown can trump Forte’s 52 receptions on 62 targets. The likelihood he will see eight-plus targets and catch at least five of them is through the roof, whether or not the Bears are behind in the game. Then there is the fact the Patriots are giving up 27.9 points per game in PPR formats to opposing running backs. Forte should more than pay off his cost, making him a solid anchor for your DFS squads in any format.
Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns - $4,300
Not only are the Cleveland Browns favored by seven points at home against the Oakland Raiders, but the latter has given up 25 standard points per game to opposing running backs this season. That is second-worst in the league.
This looks to be a low-scoring affair won in the trenches, and Ben Tate will see a large share of the action. He may not have upside as a pass-catcher—to his detriment in PPR formats like this one—but Tate is a solid, cheap option for a guy who is liable to get 25 touches and a score.
Wide Receiver
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys - $6,900
Dez Bryant at $6,900 is highway robbery this week, which almost makes him not worth starting considering he will likely see a huge ownership percentage. Everything elucidated in the arguments for Tony Romo above applies here—Washington is a great matchup, and Bryant is liable to go off for 150 yards and two touchdowns.
Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals - $4,900
Michael Floyd walked through the valley of the shadow of fantasy irrelevance earlier this season despite his offseason hype, and he had quarterback Carson Palmer’s nerve issue to thank for it. Well, Palmer is back, and so is Floyd’s fantasy value.
The third-year pro had a nice game in Palmer’s return last week, catching three passes for 47 yards and a long touchdown. Granted, those came on just three targets, so there was a little something left to be desired when diving deeper into the statistics. As bad as they have been this season, the Oakland Raiders have done a decent job limiting opposing receivers to date. They also put up a bit of a fight at home last week.
Arizona is at home this week, and Floyd gets to face one of the most generous defenses. The Eagles have given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to receivers in standard formats this season, and a high-scoring affaird is on the horizon. Giddy-up.
Greg Jennings, Minnesota Vikings - $4,000
Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings - $3,300
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are giving out fantasy points to opposing receivers like they showed up at their doorstep with Halloween costumes on. Will it be trick or treat for Greg Jennings this week? That is the $4,000 question.
This one is a bit of a gamble considering all the factors involved, but Jennings is cheap enough to merit a look. The Buccaneers have been a sieve on defense, but this figures to be a low-scoring matchup featuring weeping and gnashing of teeth on both sides. Considering the good matchup, though, Jennings could conceivably come away with a nice line on six or seven targets.
His counterpart in that wide receiver corps could be the droid you are looking for, however. Cordarrelle Patterson has been disappointing this season, to be sure, and much of that has had to do with the fact the Vikings are just not getting him the ball. While that wasn't necessarily fixed last week after he became a squeaky wheel, Patterson still possesses the highest upside among all the skill players in Minnesota.
All it could take is one touch in space against a poor-tackling Buccaneers defense for Patterson to meet value. Of course, he could wind up with one catch for 15 yards on three targets, so tread lightly.
Jennings is your cash game choice, while Patterson has the high ceiling lookg of a GPP value.
Tight End
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
The Seattle Seahawks have been surprisingly soft on defense this season, though they have been burned in a couple of specific ways. One of those has been at tight end, where they have been unable to keep up with the likes of Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and… Lance Kendricks? Their inability to cover tight ends has been a bit bizarre, and most of that came before stud middle linebacker Bobby Wagner went down with injury.
Enter Greg Olsen, quarterback Cam Newton’s safety blanket in that Carolina Panthers offense. Olsen has quietly been one of the most consistent performers at any position this season, having gotten to double-digit standard fantasy points in five of seven games this season. He figures to be a huge part of the Carolina offense this week. Combined with the matchup, Olsen seems like the best bet to meet value despite being one of the priciest tight ends this weekend.
FadeS
Quarterback
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks - $8,400
Russell Wilson’s nuclear explosion against the St. Louis Rams could have a nasty fallout this week.
A high ownership percentage is likely in store here, even with a relatively hefty price tag. Wilson takes on the Carolina Panthers this week, a team that has been kind to opposing quarterbacks, to be sure. Much of that has been the result of a porous secondary, one that quarterbacks like Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and Chicago’s Jay Cutler were able to exploit thanks, in part, to their outstanding receivers.
Wilson has no such advantage, as much as Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse would like to think they are Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.
Of course, a big chunk of Wilson’s value comes from his ability to run the ball. Last weke he became the first quarterback in NFL history to surpass 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a single game. Expecting a similar result in back-to-back weeks would be lunacy.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots - $7,200
The New England Patriots are heavily favored at home in what looks to be a high-scoring affair, so why would you
For starters, Brady isn’t the friendliest stack in daily fantasy. Wide receiver Julian Edelman might be the most popular guy, but he hasn’t really been a good return in most weeks. Tight end Rob Gronkwoski is a great stacking option, but he is also the most expensive tight end. Any cost savings you might have from starting Brady would be more than offset by stacking him with Gronkowski.
Then there is the little matter of the betting odds for this week’s affair. A big lead would likely mean more running than a tight one, and it looks like Vegas is expecting the Patriots to win by seven.
Running Back
Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings - $4,900
An aura of appeal surrounds Jerick McKinnon, the elusive Vikings running back who has apparently absconded with the lead back role in Minnesota. Things look rosy after he became the first running back to eclipse 100 yards against the Buffalo Bills this season. He is moderately priced, so why fade him?
A couple of things are working against him here. First—and most importantly—this is being pegged as a low-scoring game, given the over-under of 42.5. Despite their awful start, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are actually favored, to boot. Now, that alone shouldn’t be enough to dissuade you from picking him for lineups—McKinnon has a ton of upside, after all. That isn’t all, however.
The Buccaneers have given up a ton of fantasy points to just about everyone this season, including third-most to running backs thus far. However, a large majority of those points came in blowout losses—to the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens, for example. Game flow was a huge factor in those running back scores. Again, this week is projected to be close on top of being low-scoring.
Then there is the Matt Asiata problem. The plodding running back is on the outs—or so it would seem after McKinnon severely out-touched him in the past couple of weeks—but he is still liable to steal goal-line work from the diminutive McKinnon.
On top of all that, McKinnon is seeing a high ownership percentage over at FanDuel, which should translate to a similar situation at Draft Kings.
McKinnon is still a quality cash game choice, but you should probably stay away in GPP tournaments.
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers - $8,000
There was good reason to advocate spending money on the most expensive running back of the week in Matt Forte. Those reasons don’t exist for the most expensive receiver.
Antonio Brown has been fantastic this season, particularly in PPR formats. This may be the week he falters, however.
The Indianapolis Colts are sporting an unexpectedly great defense this season, particularly against the pass. Cornerback Vontae Davis has been a huge part of that defensive success in the secondary, and he will draw Brown on assignment this week. Now, Brown isn’t going to be shut out, but Davis has allowed just 14 receptions on 32 targets this season. The former Miami Dolphins first-round pick has elevated his game to the elite level, and Brown is next in his sights.
The main saving grace for Brown is the total set at 49.5, predicting a high-scoring affair in which the Steelers are 1.5-point underdogs at home. A tight, high-scoring game could certainly help get Brown in the mix, but he is a pricey risk this Sunday.
Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers - $5,000
This looks like a nice price tag for a guy who has been a consistent producer for the most part this season.
Kelvin Benjamin has been the season’s best rookie receiver to date, and he gets a date with the Seattle Seahawks defense this week. Despite their defensive woes in recent weeks, the Seahawks haven’t given up a ton of fantasy points to opposing receivers. St. Louis’ Brian Quick had just a couple of receptions for 34 yards last week, for example. The Seahawks have given up just three touchdowns to wide receivers this season despite having faced Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Keenan Allen and all their respective cohorts this season.
The place to invest in that Carolina offense is tight end, as we have discussed with Greg Olsen.
Fan Duel
Stack of the Week
Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals - $7,400
Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals - $6,500
We have already been over Floyd’s value over at Draft Kings, and he presents similar value at FanDuel. Where you can really take advantage of his upside is in a stack with his quarterback, Carson Palmer.
It looks like it’s going to be a high-scoring shootout this week in Arizona. Oddsmakers have the over-under set at 48—not stupendously high like Green Bay at New Orleans, but still a high number—with the Cardinals at two-point favorites. Given both squads have been pretty generous in the passing game, it’s a good bet Palmer will take to the sky for much of the scoring this week.
All odds courtesy of OddsShark.com.
