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As the NFL season wanes, so do opportunities to cash in at daily fantasy sites, at least when it comes to professional football. American football.
Looking for a little guidance in Week 16's treacherous waters? Let's dive in for some goodies.
Stack of the Week
Draft Kings
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots - Draft Kings (DK): $8,000, FanDuel (FD): $9,700
Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots - DK: $7,000, FD: $7,800
Brady and the Jets. It never gets old.
Tom Terrific takes on his nemesis this week, a broken team that is still putting up a fight. These next two weeks are Rex Ryan’s last hurrah with the New York Jets, so his team might give the Patriots its best shot. Fortunately for Brady, that shot will probably be a blank. He torched his nemesis for 267 yards and three touchdowns earlier this season.
Rob Gronkowski, meanwhile, might be the best value of the week at that price over at Draft Kings. It’s unclear why his price went down after a big week, but we shouldn’t be complaining. The Jets have been better as of late, but they are going to be annihilated this week.
This duo is far more value-friendly at Draft Kings, but this is a good stack almost anywhere.
Plays
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - DK: $7,000, FD: $8,200
The Chicago Bears may as well be named the Lame Ducks.
Marc Trestman is in his last throes as the head coach, Jay Cutler has been benched, and the defense couldn’t stop a toddler from stealing candy from the locker room. The Bears feature the most generous defense in the land when it comes to giving up fantasy points per game (PPG) to opposing quarterbacks this season, including a 390-yard, two-touchdown allowance to Stafford in a Thanksgiving Day turkey. That came when the Bears had some semblance of hope.
That last part is what makes the Detroit Lions offense so intriguing all around, and it’s why Matthew Stafford makes for a great option in all formats. There is a danger that Stafford pulls a Ben Roethlisberger circa Week 15—that is to say, he throws for a ton of yardage but few touchdowns—but his price point is too good to pass up this week.
Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns - DK: $5,500, FD: $6,200
Just keep digging, you’ll eventually find the treasure, right? That or you’ll hit rock bottom.
Johnny Manziel had an awful debut as the Browns starter, but the upside is still there. That makes him an intriguing GPP dart, particularly given you can save a ton of salary to use elsewhere. The Carolina Panthers should be a far easier matchup for Manziel, who faced a solid Cincinnati Bengals defense that was probably licking its chops and seeking revenge for a bad loss in a divisional matchup. Of course, Vegas thinks this is going to be a low-scoring affair, so we could well see a reprise of Manziel malaise. That’s why this you should only use him in GPP lineups.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - DK: $7,400, FD: $8,700
The Atlanta Falcons are on the road this week, fighting for their playoff lives. They face a New Orleans Saints defense that gave up 448 yards and three touchdowns to Ryan early in the season.
Week 1 was a long time ago, and this game is on the road. But a shootout is conducive to fantasy fireworks, and it’s not as if the Saints defense has turned into the Seattle Seahawks’. This NFC South tilt features the highest over-under at 56, and the Falcons are underdogs by nearly a touchdown. High scores and big deficits make for excellent fantasy scoring conditions at quarterback.
Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs - DK: $5,600, FD: $7,400
He is strictly a GPP option, but Alex Smith could bring home some serious bacon for his investors this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers have not only given up the fifth-most fantasy PPG to opposing quarterbacks on the season, but they have given up the most PPG to the position over the past five weeks. That’s including a game against Zach Mettenberger, one in which he threw two touchdowns.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints - DK: $8,300, FD: $9,100
This feels like a trap.
Riding Drew Brees in the fantasy realm has been a roller coaster this season, including an incredible dud at home against a mediocre Carolina Panthers defense just two weeks ago. Brees bounced back with a huge game against that woeful Bears defense last week, however, and he’s back home in what amounts to the NFC South championship game against the Atlanta Falcons. That is the same Falcons team that, despite its poor defensive play this season, Brees only threw for one touchdown against way back in the first week of the season.
Despite all that, the line for this game indicates a high-scoring effort from both sides, and Brees should be a good cash game option as a result. Let’s just hope Brees doesn’t fumble away another plus matchup.
Jimmy Clausen, Chicago Bears - DK: $5,000, FD: $5,000
Jimmy Clausen is the definition of a gamble this week. The Chicago Bears made the somewhat-surprise switch to their backup quarterback in light of their recent struggles, particularly those of Jay Cutler.
Granted, this is going to be a bloodbath if oddsmakers are right—Chicago was a 4.5-point underdog at opening, before the quarterback change. Now the Bears are nearly 10-point underdogs in a game predicted to have around 44 total points scored.
Those are reasons why Clausen is an intriguing choice this week, however. He will be a contrarian play because nobody believes the Bears will be able to do much on offense, and his minimum price allows for roster flexibility.
Running Back
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs - DK: $8,000, FD: $8,900
If you are looking for a safer option in the Kansas City offense, Jamaal Charles is your man.
True, he doesn’t seem safe after last week’s letdown—especially considering Knile Davis had that huge catch-and-run for a touchdown—but this week should be a bit better as Charles seems to be at full health. The Pittsburgh Steelers are far stingier to opposing running backs than the Oakland Raiders, but Charles has broken plenty of quality defenses throughout his career.
C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos - DK: $6,900, FD: $7,800
The Broncos head to Cincinnati to take on a Bengals team that has allowed the fifth fantasy PPG to running backs this season. Denver seems content putting the offense in the hands of their talented second-year back these days as quarterback Peyton Manning seems to be resting that 38-year-old arm for the playoffs.
Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams - DK: $4,600, $6,500
It was a predictably poor outing for Tre Mason as he took on the Arizona Cardinals last week. This week, he gets a much friendlier opponent when the Giants come to town.
That New York defense is fourth-worst in the league against the run this season, though a lot of good that did Tennessee’s running game last week. As mediocre as they are, the Rams are far superior to that wilting Titans squad, however, and Mason has proven to be an explosive back when given some space. The Rams are favored by 5.5 points this week—a big lead means more touches for Mason and that backfield to boot.
Joique Bell, Detroit Lions - DK: $6,000, FD: $7,300
If you are starting Matthew Stafford and looking to hedge your bets in cash games, Joique Bell will make a fine start regardless. The Lions will be prolific this week, with plenty of fantasy points to go around. Bell is a fine option in his own right, though his upside is somewhat limited. The Bears have been atrocious on defense the past few weeks, and Bell had 91 yards and a pair of touchdowns the last time out against the team’s NFC North nemesis.
Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins - DK: $4,400, FD: $6,300
There hasn’t been much upside to Lamar Miller all season long, but he has been pretty steady in plus matchups. This week is one such matchup as the Minnesota Vikings come to Miami in an epic battle of mediocrity.
The Vikings have given up 20.2 PPG to opposing running backs this season, the 12th-most in the league.
Wide Receiver
Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens - DK: $4,100, FD: $6,600
Every few weeks, Steve Smith goes off. It has been a few weeks since the last time the old timer took a defense to school, so he’s due, right?
Well, aside from superstition, this is a good week to invest in the 35-year-old Ravens receiver. That’s because the Houston Texans have had a tough time stopping opposing receivers this season, though they did limit T.Y. Hilton and Co. to minimal damage last week. They have an injury to T.Y. Hilton and a fortunate penalty nullifying a long Donte Moncrief touchdown to thank for that.
Smith’s price is low enough to make him a solid investment in cash games, and he has the upside in this matchup to be a nice GPP option.
DeSean Jackson, Washington - DK: $5,500, FD: $6,800
He may claim this week’s matchup bears no vengeful significance, but DeSean Jackson
The Eagles defense may accommodate Jackson regardless. Jackson torched his old team the last time around to the tune of five receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown. The Washington offense could put a wet blanket on a repeat conflagration given how poorly it has played in recent weeks, but a divisional game can bring out the best in any team. Also, consider the fact the over-under is at 50.5 and Washington is an 8.5-point underdog—Jackson could see some targets in garbage time.
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions - DK: $8,700, FD: $9,200
Golden Tate, Detroit Lions - DK: $6,100, FD: $7,400
We have already enumerated the reasons investing in the Lions offense is a good bet this week. Calvin Johnson is your cash game huckleberry while Golden Tate is a GPP darling.
Tight End
Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos - DK: $4,800, FD: $6,000
Last week was Julius Thomas’ first back from injury, and his playing time was predictably impacted. He played just 29 of 66 snaps and caught just one pass for 30 yards.
He should see some more action this week, and his price was driven down to appetizing levels after the light fare he offered last week. Even with Peyton Manning throwiing the ball less, Thomas makes for a nice GPP option at those prices.
Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams - DK: $3,200, FD: $5,000
His explosion two weeks ago was enough to lure some prey into a trap last week, and Jared Cook wound up catching them with a three-catch, 22-yard dud on Thursday night. His pricing has fallen back to palatable levels for this week, however, and he is once again a decent dart throw at near minimum value against the Giants.
Fades
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - DK: $7,400, FD: $8,500
The Pittsburgh Steelers are at home this week, where Ben Roethlisberger has been far better than away. It’s at Heinz Field where Big Ben tossed six touchdowns in consecutive games this season, a big reason why he has scored nearly 13 more fantasy PPG at home than when he is on the road. Unfortunately for Roethlisberger, one of the stingiest pass defenses in the land is coming to town—the Kansas City Chiefs, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing quarterbacks this season.
It stands to reason the Steelers will try to pound the Chiefs into submission with Le’Veon Bell, given Kansas City has been so generous on the ground in recent weeks. Roethlisberger will do some damage, but not likely enough to merit serious consideration here.
Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos - DK: $8,400, FD: $9,600
Apparently FanDuel isn’t giving up on Peyton Manning just yet, but his price may not be lower on DraftKings this season.
Peyton Manning is coming off an awful pair of games when it comes to fantasy football. His 51-game touchdown streak ended two weeks ago, and he followed it up with an average day last week against the San Diego Chargers, thanks in large part to the flu. His incredible drop in volume has been a bit eerie—perhaps he is trying to keep his arm fresh for the playoffs—and we might see a continuation of that this Monday against a decent Cincinnati Bengals pass defense that has given up the second-fewest fantasy PPG to quarterbacks over the past five weeks.
There is also a hint of playoff rest in the air as Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post made a legitimate argument that Manning should sit Monday’s game out altogether. That is unlikely to happen, but what if he is yanked at halftime?
Running Back
DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys - DK: $9,00, FD: $9,300
This doesn’t need to be said, right? Don’t risk Murray with that hand injury, even if he’s active for the afternoon games.
Jeremy Hill, Denver Broncos - DK: $5,600, FD: $7,300
Jeremy Hill made a huge splash last week. Now it’s time to fade him.
The Denver Broncos haven’t exactly doled out a ton of fantasy points to opposing running backs this season—they have allowed the fourth-fewest to the position this year—and there is a good chance the Cincinnati Bengals will have to play catch-up on Monday night. The over-under is just 47.5—normally a decent number, but lowe considering the Broncos are involved—and Cincinnati is a 3.5-point underdog at home.
Wide Receiver
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears - DK: $8,000, FD: $8,500
While Jimmy Clausen makes for an intriguing option in GPP contests, his main receiver is unappealing in many ways. The biggest issue is opportunity cost—do you really think Jeffery is going to be more valuable at those prices than someone you can get at similar cost? That is one mighty risk to take considering his quarterback situation, not to mention the fact he is facing a tough Detroit Lions defense.
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans - DK: $6,300, FD: $7,200
Temptation might lure you toward playing DeAndre Hopkins this week against a Baltimore Ravens defense that has been rather generous to opposing wideouts. The problem is the Houston Texans are on the road having made Sophie’s choice of Case Keenum over Thad Lewis at quarterback. That is not a guarantee of a bad game for Hopkins, but it certainly makes him a bad bet.
