The football season is coming to a close, and many traditional fantasy seasons have ended prematurely. Hopefully yours is still intact thanks to all the wonderful content here at Footballguys, but bad luck gets the best of us.
At any rate, daily fantasy is the place to be if you are looking to scratch that itch, however. Looking for an assist? Below you'll find my plays, fades and stack of the week for Draft Kings and FanDuel in Week 15.
Stack of the Week
Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland Browns - Draft Kings (DK): $5,200, FanDuel (FD): $6,700
Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns - DK: $8,100, FD: $8,000
Back to the well we go, perhaps to our detriment if the water has been poisoned.
Last week’s stack of the week was a total disaster as Brian Hoyer continued his streak of awful play and the Browns regularly kept Josh Gordon off the field in passing situations. The latter might still be problematic this week, but hopefully the quality of his targets will improve dramatically.
That’s because rookie Johnny Manziel will finally take the reins at quarterback. Granted, we’re not sure what we are going to get out of a guy who couldn’t overtake Hoyer earlier this season, but it’s difficult to believe he will be as bad or worse than his predecessor. Even if his passing isn’t too much better, Johnny Football’s ability to score points with his legs make him an intriguing option with a ton of upside.
Gordon, meanwhile, could be motivated to prove his coach wrong about a perceived lack of conditioning. Once again, this is strictly a GPP pairing.
Play
Quarterback
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints - DK: $8,400, FD: $9,200
He had a horrendous Week 14, but that doesn’t mean Drew Brees won’t explode on Monday night.
It has been a bit of a maddening run for Brees owners and investors this season, but few games perplexed them all than last week’s dud against the Carolina Panthers. In contrast, Brees threw five touchdowns in a road game the week before.
He’s back on the road again this week, and he has a beautiful matchup against a bad Chicago Bears defense that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game (PPG) over the past five weeks. More importantly, the game has a predicted high point total due to two bad defenses.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - DK: $6,600, FD: $7,900
Somehow Matt Ryan is cheaper this week than he was before going nuclear against the Green Bay Packers.
Well, we actually know how—the game was on Monday night, well after this week’s prices were fixed. Take advantage of this great holiday sale! Ryan is facing a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that recently auditioned for a leading role in a Charmin commercial. The one downside here is not knowing the status for star receiver Julio Jones, who will be a game-time decision. Should he be ruled out on Sunday morning, adjust accordingly.
Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles - DK: $6,500, FD: $7,500
Last week’s fantasy flop wasn’t unexpected for Mark Sanchez, given he was facing a Seattle Seahawks defense that seems to have regained its Super Bowl swagger. Getting held to fewer than 100 passing yards was eye-opening, but Sanchez was unlikely to post a big game.
This week, the Sanchize gets another crack at a much softer unit—hated division rival Dallas’ defense, one that has given up the fourth-most PPG to quarterbacks over the past five weeks. One of the guys who scored well in that span was Sanchez himself, who put up 23.7 point in a road tilt on Thanksgiving.
This game has an over-under set at 55, with the Eagles favored by just 3.5 points. That points to a shootout with plenty of fantasy points to go around. At those rates, Sanchez could be one of the steals of the week.
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys - DK: $7,300, FD: $8,400
Similar things can be said for Sanchez’s counterpart on the Dallas offense—Tony Romo. The biggest difference is the fact Romo scored fewer than 10 points last time around against Philadelphia, an unexpected result given Philadelphia’s generous pass defense. In his defense, Dallas played a Sunday night game on the road just a few days prior to the Thursday afternoon game against Philadelphia, and Romo got beat up by an unusually porous offensive line that day.
Despite that, the Eagles are just behind the Cowboys when it comes to giving up fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past five weeks. Romo will actually have a few days’ extra rest or preparation this time around to boot. Expect Romo to bounce back in a high-scoring affair.
Kyle Orton, Buffalo Bills - DK: $5,500, FD: $7,600
If you are looking for a cheap option at quarterback for GPP lineups, Kyle Orton might be your man.
Orton is squaring off against the Green Bay Packers in a game that figures to have a favorable script when it comes to scoring fantasy points in the passing game. That’s because, despite a quality defense playing at home, the Bills are six-point underdogs in a game that’s predicted to eclipse 50 total points. The Packers pass defense just got smoked by Matt Ryan as the Falcons quarterback made a desperate comeback bid after being down 31-7 at halftime.
Running Back
Alfred Morris, Washington - DK: $5,000, FD: $7,000
The New York Giants might have held Bishop Sankey down last week, but Alfred Morris is no rookie plodder.
Washington’s workhorse had 90 total yards and a touchdown the last time out against the Giants, and that is a reasonable expectation for him this week assuming his offense hasn’t completely mailed it in for the rest of the year. Hence, he is a nice cash option at a mid-range price.
Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals - DK: $4,300, FD: $7,100
If you believe the news coming out of Cincinnati, a lot of touches are coming for Jeremy Hill.
That’s because offensive coordinator Hue Jackson recently said he would like to see one back carry the load, and fellow running back Giovani Bernard said Hill would be the starter this week. That makes him a great option for both cash and GPP contests, given his cost for Week 15.
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns - DK: $4,900, FD: $6,500
Hill’s counterpart on the other side of the field should have a similar workload if he is fully healthy.
Isaiah Crowell wasn’t 100 percent last week, which is likely why he split time with Terrance West. He still got 14 carries for 54 yards and a score, in line with his averages for the past five weeks. The matchup isn’t great, which limits his upside, but a good number of touches and subsequent production seems guaranteed if you are looking for a moderately priced cash game option.
LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles - DK: $6,600, FD: $8,100
The last time LeSean McCoy faced the Dallas Cowboys, he went nuclear. McCoy rushed for 159 yards and a score as the game got out of hand in a blowout victory. Aside a predictably dour output against the Seahawks last week, McCoy has been fantastic in the second half of the season.
This week's matchup might be much closer than the Thanksgiving affair, but the Eagles are sure to ride McCoy again in a pretty good matchup.
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers - DK: $9,600, FD: $9,600
The entire Pittsburgh offense is really worth looking at in daily fantasy, given the high-scoring prediction. Running back Le’Veon Bell is, perhaps, the safest option this weekend.
True, his price point makes it difficult for him to meet value—he is strictly a cash game option in that light—but Bell’s 711 total yards and five touchdowns over the past three weeks point to a safe fantasy haven in a good matchup this week.
Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - DK: $9,000, FD: $9,000
Matt Forte is another nice cash game option that won’t break the bank.
Who knows exactly how the Bears will deal with Brandon Marshall’s absence now that he is out for the remainder of the season, but it seems like Forte might see an uptick in his already voluminous touch count. The league-leader in receptions at his position, Forte makes for a great PPR option with a high floor. His upside might not be at the same levels as some of his compatriots at the position, but it may not matter if he catches seven or eight passes.
LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots - DK: $4,400, FD: $6,500
Utilizing a New England running back is not without risks. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is a Sith Lord of fantasy football, after all, laughing maniacally at the wake of smoldering fantasy rosters he leaves behind.
This week, however, LeGarrette Blount owners might be the ones laughing all the way to the bank. The Miami Dolphins have given up the most rushing yards in the league to opposing running backs over the past five weeks, a sieve of a run defense. The Patriots, meanwhile, are heavy favorites at home. That bodes well for the running game, assuming New England gets out to a big lead. Even if it's a closer game than expected, look for the Patriots to pound the rock with a Blount object in an effort to keep the Dolphins pass rush honest.
Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders - DK: $4,000, FD: $6,500
Opportunity is the one who knocks.
Latavius Murray bounced back from a concussion to garner 25 touches in last week’s victory against the San Francisco 49ers. He ran well, but he didn’t have a ton of room to operate. Even so, it’s clear who the Raiders are rolling with at running back, unless head coach Tony Sparano is going to channel Bill Belichick.
This week, Murray gets another crack at the Kansas City Chiefs—albeit on the road this time—a team he torched for 112 yards and two touchdowns on four touches just a couple of weeks ago. Kansas City has allowed a ton of fantasy points to running backs in recent weeks, a dramatic dropoff considering how well that defense defended the run earlier this season. Murray may not average 28 yards per carry again this week, but another 25 touches against that defense could mean a nice outing regardless of venue.
Chris Ivory, New York Jets - DK: $4,200, FD: $5,200
Chris Johnson, New York Jets - DK: $3,600, FD: $5,300
Interested in a real gamble? How about someone on the Jets offense?
Chris Johnson takes a stroll down narrative lane this week as he faces off against the team that spurned him. We just saw his teammate, Percy Harvin, go off against his old team a week ago. Why not throw a dart with Johnson suspecting he might have just a little more motivation?
Narratives aside, this is a good matchup for both Johnson and Chris Ivory. Not only have the Tennessee Titans been bleeding fantasy points all over the field, but the running back tandem has been splitting time recently—each had exactly 24.3 percent of the team's targets and carries last week.
The downside? The Jets are underdogs in a game with an over-under set at 42. Still, New York seems content to let quarterback Geno Smith hand the ball off a ton, and the Titans are generous hosts.
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts - DK: $8,000, FD: $8,800
Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts - DK: $4,000, FD: $5,700
If you hadn’t realized it after his huge game against Houston earlier this season, T.Y. Hilton loves to play the Texans. The star Colts receiver has scored double the fantasy points against his divisional foe than against everyone else in his short career to date. This isn’t some anomaly, either—Houston has been awful against the pass for years now, and that has been no different this season. Houston has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season.
Donte Moncrief is intriguing for his upside alone—we have seen him go nuclear in a couple of games this season. The problem is his floor—it’s at sea level. That makes him a GPP-only option, but one with great potential to light up your fantasy scoreboard against the Texans.
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys - DK: $7,900, FD: $8,500
Last time around, Dez Bryant was a disappointment against the Philadelphia Eagles. It was a fairly high-scoring affair on Thanksgiving, but Bryant had just four receptions for 73 yards on the day.
Don’t let that dissuade you from trying again this week. The Eagles are still giving up a ton of points to receivers, the Cowboys should be better rested and prepared, and Dez is still one of the best receivers in the league. Bryant is a nice cash game option with decent GPP potential at a slightly discounted valuation.
Marquess Wilson, Chicago Bears - DK: $3,000, FD: $4,500
An unfortunate injury has shelved Brandon Marshall for the rest of the season. That is a big hit for Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears, but a potential boon for second-year wideout Marquess Wilson.
A broken clavicle shelved him for half the season, but Wilson has been healthy and active for a few weeks. He amassed just five receptions for 40 yards in that span—including a lackluster total even after Marshall’s departure last week—but having first-team reps with his quarterback this week might improve things quite a bit. Just having more opportunity to score fantasy points makes Wilson a tantalizing option, particularly in that nice matchup at those low prices. He is not without risk, however, which means you should only utilize him in GPP formats.
Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints - DK: $5,700, FD: $6,100
Last week was a dud, but that only served to lower Kenny Stills’ cost for an even juicier matchup against the Chicago Bears this week. That Chicago defense has given up the second-most fantasy PPG to opposing receivers over the past five weeks, and the game has an over-under set at 53.5. Let the fireworks begin.
Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles - FD: $5,600, FD: $7,000
Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles - DK: $6,100, FD: $8,000
The dynamic receiver duo in Philadelphia makes for quality investments this weekend for all the same reasons their quarterback does. Matthews and Maclin both had nice games against the Cowboys last time out against their divisional rivals, and a bounce-back from the offense should mean both will be viable in the fantasy realm once again.
Harry Douglas, Atlanta Falcons - DK $4,200, FD: $5,800
Depending on whether Julio Jones plays this weekend, this could either be a good or a fantastic option.
Harry Douglas is also banged up, to be sure, but he should play in a juicy matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, as elucidated in the Matt Ryan analysis. Jones would probably take away several targets if he plays, but he could also steal defensive attention given how well he has played in recent weeks. If so inclined, Douglas makes a nice stacking option with Ryan in GPP contests.
Golden Tate, Detroit Lions - DK: $6,300, FD: $7,500
This one is admittedly a bit of a gut call, but Golden Tate could be a ninja performer this week for anyone who takes a shot.
The last time he played against the Minnesota Vikings, Calvin Johnson was inactive due to injury. With Megatron active and playing well, Tate could sneak into the fantasy elite at his position with the Vikings focusing on the big man on the other side. He would be a much better choice if those prices were lower, but Tate presents a differentiation opportunity—that is to say, nobody is talking about him as a good option, so he might have a low ownership percentage—with upside for your lineups this week.
Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills - DK: $5,500, FD: $7,200
Robert Woods, Buffalo Bills - DK: $$4,300, FD: $5,800
Kyle Orton makes for an interesting investment in GPP formats, so why not his receivers?
Sammy Watkins seems like a particularly tantalizing option given Julio Jones’ detonation on Monday night, but to simply assume the next No. 1 receiver will automatically explode would be foolish. Still, the matchup is nice and the aforementioned game script is favorable. Watkins should see plenty of targets, giving him a nice floor for cash games.
The better GPP option might be Robert Woods across the way, a receiver who has had a couple of big games this season himself. The Packers may focus on stopping Watkins, which could give Woods some space to operate. Or it could simply be a nice day for the Buffalo passing game all around.
Tight End
Larry Donnell, New York Giants - DK: $3,800, FD: $5,200
It seems like ancient history, but Larry Donnell became a thing the last time he faced Washington.
That’s because the Giants tight end scored three touchdowns in that game, putting him on the fantasy map and causing owners to fall all over themselves to pick him up or pay for him in daily fantasy. He has largely been a disappointment since then, but another crack at the Washington defense could get him back in the good graces of fantasy owners. Not convinced? What does the fact that Washington has allowed the most points to opposing tight ends over the past five weeks do for you?
Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers - DK: $4,500, FD: $5,500
Keep chopping at that tree—it will eventually fall.
Antonio Gates has fallen off considerably after a strong first half, but he is still garnering targets. With a nice matchup this week—and Ladarius Green and Ryan Mathews likely out—Gates should be in line for a big game.
The last time he faced the Broncos, Old Man Gates went for 54 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The offense isn’t playing as well as a whole, but that could turn on a dime in a must-win situation against divisional foes. Quarterback Philip Rivers has been traditionally great in December, which is a good sign for his playmakers.
Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans - DK: $4,400, FD: $5,300
Last week’s decent matchup turned into a nightmare for Delanie Walker, but he has an even better matchup this week against the New York Jets.
Jake Locker is back under center after Zach Mettenberger's season-ending injury, and Walker has scored over three more fantasy PPG with his embattled quarterback than with anyone else. That include a 10-reception, 142-yard and one-touchdown game earlier this season against the Dallas Cowboys.
Fades
Quarterback
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks - DK: $8,000, FD: $8,800
He is the fourth-best quarterback in the fantasy realm right now, but that doesn’t mean you should gravitate toward Russell Wilson this weekend.
Wilson has historically scored far fewer fantasy points against his divisional foe than he has against everyone else. He has been better at home, as is to be expected, but huge numbers are likely not in store in a game predicted to have just 38 total points. Wilson has some upside since he can run the ball, but he is a bit too pricey to trust this week.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - DK: $9,200, FD: $10,200
Normally Aaron Rodgers is a solid play almost regardless of price. This week, you might want to stay away.
That is because the Buffalo Bills defense is pretty good, one that held Peyton Manning below 10 fantasy points on the road last week. There is a reason the Bills are giving up the third-fewest fantasy PPG to opposing quarterbacks, after all. Granted, Manning isn’t playing all too well right now as opposed to Rodgers, who is clearly an alien or android sent to destroy us all.
Rodgers is probably going to be fine, but “fine” isn’t good enough at those prices.
Running Back
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers - DK: $7,500, FD: $8,400
The same reasons why Rodgers should be faded are those why Eddie Lacy should be too, with a bit of injury intrigue added, given he had to leave the Monday night tilt. The Bills have been better against the pass than the run, but Lacy is probably too pricey to be worth the trouble in a trap game this week.
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks - DK: $7,300, FD: $8,700
With so many quality options at running back, there is little reason to spend on Marshawn Lynch.
That’s because Beast Mode is set to face division rival San Francisco 49ers, a team that has given up the 10th-fewest fantasy PPG to running backs this season. That includes holding Lynch out of the end zone on Thanksgiving in a defensive struggle.
Of course, the last time Lynch played the 49ers in Seattle he went off for 135 total yards and three touchdowns, so perhaps the matchup isn’t as bad as it seems. He makes some sense in cash games because you know he is going to get the ball plenty, but there are too many guys with better matchups and/or lower prices to invest in Lynch.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals - DK: $8,500, FD: $9,000
Things have changed dramatically since the last time the Browns and Bengals faced off, a shocking win for Cleveland, a game that saw Cincinnati score just three points. The teams are headed in opposite directions now,
A.J. Green was in his second game back from injury, seemingly not at full strength as he was held to just three receptions for 23 yards despite 10 targets. Part of the reason for that was the presence of cornerback Joe Haden, a quality cornerback. He might not be Darrelle Revis or Richard Sherman, but Haden has been known to shut down receivers from time to time.
Perhaps quarterback Andy Dalton will fare much better now that he's not playing on primetime. Chances are Green won't meet value regardless, given the matchup.
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans - DK: $6,000, FD: $5,200
The last time DeAndre Hopkins faced the Indianapolis Colts he caught just one pass for 12 yards. That doesn't mean he will lay another egg this week, but it's been a bad matchup for Hopkins through the first two seasons of his career. Colts cornerback Vontae Davis looks like he will play this weekend, and he makes the Indianapolis secondary.
Hopkins certainly has upside, but he is too risky at that cost to put him in lineups of any nature.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots - DK: $7,600, FD: $7,600
It seems silly to fade a the league-leading tight end who is the most consistent scorer at his position at this point, but this would be the week to do it.
That’s because, for all their defensive faults, the Miami Dolphins haven’t given many fantasy points to tight ends this season, including just . Miami’s pass rush can be rather ferocious led by Cameron Wake, which could lead the Patriots to keep Gronkowski in to block—or at least chip—a bit more often.
Even if that’s not the case, the Patriots might be content to run the ball 40 times, especially if they get out to a big, early lead in a game they’re favored by more than a touchdown. Gronkowski caught just four balls for 40 yards in his first meeting against the Patriots, albeit that was his first regular season game back from a torn ACL. He might perform well this week regardless, but he may not meet value at those prices.
