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The NFL preseason is like sitting through a fast food commercial while dealing with hunger pangs. You can almost smell the savory aroma of that fried chicken or grilled burrito subverting your consciousness. Like an apparition, you fly to your nearest purveyor of processed poison, unaware or uncaring of the consequences to come.
For fantasy football owners, that temptation hits hard for some players hits hard after a solid preseason. Tantalizing as they may be, you might want to steer clear of these guys in any remaining drafts, at least as they are currently valuated.
Chris Johnson, RB, New York Jets
As fantasy football goes, Chris Johnson has some unwarranted staying power.
The newly minted Jet might be creating much of his own hype. Johnson said he thinks he’s still capable of a 2,000-yard season.
No worries if that made you guffaw—it seems ludicrous here as well, given all those years since his original 2,000-yard campaign. Johnson has long been a shell of himself, despite delusions of grandeur on his part. He hasn’t had much excuse, either—the Tennessee Titans did everything they could to get him a solid offensive line and plenty of touches in their offense.
To be fair, Johnson wound up being one of the top 10 fantasy running backs last season. While a big reason for that was attrition—several top backs fell off due to injury, for example—Johnson was good enough to be a steady presence in fantasy lineups. In New York, however, he may not be the sole beneficiary of
Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell will be in the mix behind Johnson, meaning he will need to be more efficient than that 3.9 YPC that he boasted last season. He will also be 29 with 2,014 touches to his name heading this fall, on the precipice of a cliff off which most running backs fall.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
There is no denying Travis Kelce is a talented pass-catching tight end. He has great potential, which is part of the reason why he has moved up draft boards over the past month. His great preseason had something to do with that—Kelce has caught many fantasy eyes with a pair of long touchdowns.
Unfortunately, there is that little matter of playing time, or lack thereof in Kelce’s case.
For better or worse, Anthony Fasano is the starting tight end in Kansas City. He is an experienced player who brings a solid all-around game, even if his ceiling as a pass-catcher is low. That means he will get the majority of snaps, limiting Kelce’s opportunity to score fantasy points.
That is not to say Kelce isn’t a good flier. The second-year pro should see time in two-tight end sets, and he could play his way into a bigger role as the season wears on. In fairness, that is where he is currently being drafted, on average off the board as the 20th tight end. But his ADP has been ticking up, and you might be tempted to take him over more valuable commodities.
Terrance West, RB, Cleveland Browns
The hype has cooled on this one, but not so much on ADP.
Terrance West very well could give Ben Tate a run for his money, but the rookie out of Towson is likely to play a true backup role in Cleveland this season, at least if the preseason is any indication. That is because Tate is doing what he was signed to do—run the football effectively. While 4.3 YPC isn’t astounding, it is far better than West’s 2.8 YPC clip through the first three games of the preseason.
Now, West could well see a decent touch count by virtue of Cleveland’s offensive gameplan from week to week—the Browns don’t figure to be pass-heavy like last season, at least now with an improved backfield, Norv Turner gone and Brian Hoyer at quarterback.
John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
By all accounts, John Brown has been quite the find in Arizona. Perhaps there are a few too many accounts of his early rise in the desert, however.
Take this nugget from Peter King over at The MMQB, for example:
“John Brown will be over-hyped and some wise guy in your league could take him too high. But he’s really fast (second to Dri Archer at the combine this year), and Arians is going to call his name a lot. Taking him in the 10th round would probably be a good risk.”
There is no denying Brown is a speedster with potential. But aren’t we getting a bit carried away? He is currently ranked No. 47 over at The MMQB, ahead of guys like Justin Hunter, Kenny Britt and Jarrett Boykin.
That is not to say Brown doesn’t have a big game in him or two this season, but much of his hype is a product of the preseason. Michael Floyd only recently got into some game action, a contest in which Brown shined after Floyd and the rest of the starters departed. He is the No. 3 receiver in Arizona behind Larry Fitzgerald and Floyd and the fourth option—at best—when we throw running back Andre Ellington in the mix. He is simply not going to provide much fantasy value barring injury.
James White, RB, New England Patriots
The Great White Hype has reached unnecessary levels in New England.
James White is getting a ton of love this preseason. Why?
The sixth-round running back out of Wisconsin has been the toast of training camp, to be sure. His roster spot is assured, and there has even been talk of cutting Stevan Ridley. Whether that speculation holds water is another matter—the likelihood the Patriots will cut their still-effective 2013 starter on the final year of his rookie contract seems nonexistent—there is that small matter of effectiveness. In White’s case, it’s the lack thereof during preseason games that should be worrisome.
All that bluster about his training camp success has not translated to game time, during which White has looked tentative and slow. He averaged an abysmal 2.8 yards per carry through the first three games of the preseason.
Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins
Things were looking up for Lamar Miller earlier this offseason. Sure, the Miami Dolphins signed Knowshon Moreno to presumably take over as the starter, but he was all but invisible after knee surgery. Miller, meanwhile, impressed his coaches and generally looked improved from a year ago.
Unfortunately for Miller and his fantasy owners, Moreno recently removed his invisibility cloak, throwing the Dolphins backfield into fantasy disarray in the process.
In truth, this was always Moreno’s job to lose once he signed in Miami. His bad start sunk his fantasy stock and buoyed Miller’s, but a healthy Moreno figures to be the lead back in a committee.
Tim Wright, TE, New England Patriots
Few backup tight ends will make bigger waves than Tim Wright did when he was traded to the New England Patriots.
The move was a bit polarizing—many expect him to have a big impact with the Patriots while others think his influence on the offense will be minimal. I fall into the latter category.
If the Buccaneers thought they had Aaron Hernandez 2.0—the version without all the off-field insanity—on their hands, they wouldn’t have traded him away. Instead, he was barely hanging onto a roster spot before New England came calling.
Trading for Wright was likely spurred by a need for depth at the position for the Patriots, more so than finding an immediate impact starter. Before his arrival, the Patriots had just Michael Hoomanawanui and Steve Maneri—neither of whom presents a particularly palatable pass-catching option—behind Rob Gronkowski. Wright adds good depth in that regard, even if he is more of a joker than a traditional tight end.
Some have speculated Wright would reprise Aaron Hernandez’s old role, given similar size and skill sets. That may well be the case down the line, but how likely is it the Patriots will install an old offense just days before the start of the regular season?
And that is the other part of the rub—we have no idea how long it will take Wright to integrate with the offense, if he can even do so effectively.
Perhaps the hullabaloo over the Wright trade was contained to a certain segment of social media, but you would do better taking a late-round stab at someone else—someone like Zach Miller, Mychal Rivera or even Travis Kelce—than wasting a pick on Wright.
Beware the preseason hype.