Thank you everyone for being part of Footballguys.com this year. I’d like to wish everyone a happy and safe New Year. Congrats to those of you who weathered the storm in 2013 to win your league(s). To those of you who came up short, better luck next year and we hope to see you right back here in 2014. Remember that the NFL Draft is only four months away!
QUARTERBACKS
Andrew Luck, Ind vs. Jac
For those of you in shallow leagues, Luck looks like a safe option in a week that is filled with lots of questions. Luck has a strong matchup, inside at home, against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the third most point to QBs. The Colts are playoff bound and Luck threw for 260 yards and 2 TDs for 23 fantasy points against the Jags back in Week 4.
Ryan Tannehill, Mia vs. NYJ
Even though Tannehill is coming off his worst performance of the year in Buffalo, he will have the benefit of playing in warmer weather against a Jets defense that he torched for 26 points in New York back in Week 13. Tannehill threw for 331 yards, 2 TDs and an interception while also rushing for 22 yards in that game. The Dolphins have plenty to play for with a wild card bid on the line with a win. OF course, the Jets would like nothing more than to oust their divisional rival from the playoff picture.
Jay Cutler, Chi vs. GB
The Bears are playing for the divisional title, at home, against a Packer defense that Josh McCown threw for 272 yards and a pair of TDs for 24 fantasy points in Week 9. The Packers have allowed the 7th most points to opposing QBs and they’ll be without their top pass rusher Clay Mathews.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ten vs. Hou
Sometimes the best players to roll with in Week 17 are those whose teams have nothing on the line. The Titans and Texans fit that bill. Houston’s defense has been limping down the stretch and they aren’t the same force they were to be reckoned with when Brian Cushing and other starters were healthy. Fitzpatrick isn’t a top talent, but he can generate fantasy points with his arms and legs but he’s also known for turnovers. Other gambles with similar upside/risk profiles week are Kirk Cousins at NYG, Matt Cassel vs. Det, Chad Henne at Indy, Kyle Orton vs. Phi and don’t forget about Terrelle Pryor vs. Den either.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ten at Jac
Although the Jaguars have improved in Gus Bradley’s first year as head coach, they remain one of the best matchups in the league for quarterbacks having allowed the third most points this year. In their last three games, they’ve allowed 25+ fantasy points in each game to the likes of EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden and Case Keenum/Matt Schaub. Back in Week 10, Fitzpatrick rung up 28.5 fantasy points in relief of Jake Locker as the two combined for 30.5 points against the Jaguars. Save for Keenum’s poor outing against them in week 12, quarterbacks have combined for 25+ fantasy points in their last six games against the Jaguars. On the flipside, Fitzpatrick is averaging just over24 points in his last four starts, including an impressive 402 yards, 4 TDs and 36 fantasy points against a good Cardinals defense on Sunday.
Joe Flacco, Bal at NE
In deeper leagues, you might look for Flacco against a Patriots defense that has been shredded in their last two games by Ryan Tannehill (321 yards, 3 TDs and no INTs for 27.5 points) and Jason Campbell (391 yards, 3 TDs, no INTs, 27 rush yards for 34.25 points). With Dennis Pitta back in the lineup, Marlon Brown and Jacoby Jones healthier and Ray Rice rounding back into shape, Flacco has a little more upside, but he remains a QB2 in all but deeper league formats even with the good matchup and the playoffs riding on a win.
Other deeper league options include Jason Campbell against the Jets and Ryan Tannehill on the road against Buffalo. Both games could end up being played in cold, wintery weather, though, so monitor the weather forecasts and plan accordingly.
RUNNING BACKS
Jonathan Grimes, Hou at Ten
This is why you shouldn’t be playing in Week 17. Some of you might recall Grimes floating around the league over the last couple of years. With Ben Tate (ribs), Dennis Johnson (hip) and Deji Karim (collarbone) all hurt, the Texans signed Grimes to be their Week 17 starter against a Titans defense allowing the fourth most points to running backs. In Week 2, both Arian Foster and Tate produced double digit fantasy points against the Titans.
Joique Bell, Det at Min
Reggie Bush lost yet another fumble in last week’s crucial loss at home to the Giants prompting Jim Schwartz to bench him in favor of Bell. Of course, Bell is a talent player in his own right as a looming restricted free agent who is more than capable as a runner between the tackles, receiver in the passing game and a sled dog at the goal line. Bell lacks Bush’s speed and elusiveness, but he’s reliable, has good hands and almost always takes multiple defenders to get him on the ground while falling forward to extra yards. Even if Bush returns to his starting spot, Bush will get a healthy number of touches.
DeAngelo Williams, Car at Atl
The Falcons have allowed the 7th most points to RBs and Williams will likely be the team’s bell cow in the final regular season game. In Week 9, Williams totaled 54 yards while Jonathan Stewart produced 64 yards and Mike Tolbert 37 yards and a TD. Stewart is out again this week leaving Williams to handle what should be a healthy number of touches with Tolbert picking up the slack and likely getting any potential goal line looks that don’t go to Cam Newton. In deeper leagues, don’t hesitate to throw Tolbert into your lineup.
Knile Davis, KC at SD
Also consider using Knile Davis since the Chiefs look like they’ll give plenty of rest to their starters against the Chargers this week. Davis is a talented back who could produce big numbers if given the same number of touches that Jamaal Charles would usually see. He’s a known fumbler in the past, but with a playoff seed locked in, the Chiefs have nothing to lose by giving Davis all that he can handle this week against a Chargers defense allowed the Chiefs’ backs a total of 118 rushing yards, 2 TDs and 50 yards receiving to them in Week 12.
Chris Ivory, NYJ at Mia
Ivory won’t catch many passes. In the Jets anemic offense he hasn’t had many opportunities at the goal line either, but he did rush for 74 yards against the Dolphins in Week 13 and Miami is allowing the ninth most points to the position. In the last three weeks, Ivory has been running hard with 49 carries for 251 yards and 1 TD. Based on yardage alone, he’s a borderline RB2/flex option in standard leagues, but he’s just the type of back who could break off some long Week 17 runs with his burst and toughness.
Stevan Ridley, NE vs. Buf
Ridley is a difficult player to trust when we’re not quite sure if he even has the trust of Bill Belichick, but the reality is that the Patriots probably need Ridley if they are going to make another deep push into the playoffs. So what a better way to prime Ridley for that role than to give him more touches in a safe Week 17 game, allow him to shake off any rust and make him earn his way back into a primary role as the team’s early down thumper and second half finisher. Ridley is the most talented runner in their backfield, but there is always risk when trying to predict what Belichick will do. With the playoffs well in hand, he could just as easily decide to give Ridley a rest if he’s satisfied with what he is seeing in practice and give the majority of the snaps to Brandon Bolden and LaGarrette Blount.
Bobby Rainey, TB vs. NO
The Saints are currently projected as the 6th seed in the NFC Playoffs while the Bucs are just playing out the season. But that doesn’t mean the Bucs are going to roll over either. That doesn’t fit in with Greg Schiano’s style and Bobby Rainey could easily get a healthy workload and produce 100+ yards – as Doug Martin did back in Week 2 when he toted the rock 29 times for 144 yards.
Donald Brown / Trent Richardson, Ind vs. Jac
The Jaguars defense is among the top 10 matchups for running backs and the Colts tandem combined for 142 yards and a TD against them back in Week 4 – Richardson’s first as a Colt. Brown returned to the lineup last week after suffering a stinger in Week 15. Both players will get the rock this week. Although Richardson out-touched Brown last week, Brown continued to produce better stats with his touches. Both players look like better flex options than RB2s.
James Starks, GB at Chi
If he’s able to practice and start this week, Eddie Lacy projects as one of the best plays of the week against what has become a historically bad run defense in Chicago. If Lacy is limited or inactive, Starks would get the bulk of the touches in his absence and immediately jump up the rankings this week as a potential RB1 or RB2 depending on Lacy’s availability and/or expected workload.
Montee Ball, Den at Oak
The Broncos could give Knowshon Moreno a break this week with their eyes on a deep playoff run, especially after watching key players like Wes Welker and Von Miller go down in recent weeks with injuries. By that same logic, it could be a busy day for C.J. Anderson and/or Ronnie Hillman if they decide to rest both Moreno and Montee Ball. The Raiders are one of the best fantasy matchups for running backs. Back in Week 3 in Oakland, Ball produced 61 yards, Moreno 45 yards and Hillman 78 yards and a TD. All of the Broncos’ backs are risky options this week not knowing what the distribution might look like, but you might roll with Ball as a low-end RB2/flex option and monitor the situation through Sunday morning to see who is active and inactive.
Edwin Baker, Cle at Pit
If there is ever a week to consider starting a Browns’ running back then this would be it. The Browns have nothing to gain or lose by handing it off to Baker as many times as he can handle it. The Steelers have been soft against the run this year and the team might decide that Baker deserves a shot at a roster spot next summer. They’re expected to draft a running back regardless, but so far in limited playing time, Baker has performed well enough to get an extended audition in an otherwise meaningless game for the Browns.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Cordarrelle Patterson, Min vs. Det
Wide receivers are typically the biggest wild cards of Week 17 games. No player has more raw talent and explosive potential than Cordarrelle Patterson does. The Lions defense has played well down the stretch but their playoffs hopes are gone and anything could happen in this last game at the Metrodome. With Adrian Peterson iffy, the Vikings will do their best to put the ball into their biggest playmaker’s hands to give their fans something positive to cheer for going into next year. Patterson’s rookie year could finish with a boom.
Brian Hartline, Mia vs. NYJ
Hartline’s best game of the season came against the Jets in Week 13 when he was targeted 15 times for 9 catches, 127 yards and a touchdown. Antonio Cromartie will probably spend most of his snaps locking onto Mike Wallace leaving Hartline free against the other Jets corners. The back end of the Jets defense has been beatable all year long and Hartline has proven to be a pretty reliable back-end WR3/flex option depending on your league size. It is lock and load time with Hartline this week.
Andre Holmes, Oak vs. Den
Holmes has broken onto the scene in a big, but somewhat quiet manner in the midst of another lost season for the Raiders. The former Hillsdale College product has been targeted 33 times in the last four games for 19 catches, 328 yards and 1 TD. Terrelle Pryor retakes the reins of the Raider offense this week against a Bronco defense that has been among the top 10 all year long in points allowed to opposing receivers. Rod Streator has been red hot down the stretch while Denarius Moore has slowly worked his way back into the lineup following a shoulder injury mid-season. Moore and Holmes could rotate and split snaps, or the Raiders could simply opt to give most of those snaps to Holmes realizing that he just might have a bright future with the team as a king-sized outside receiver capable of making breath taking catches reminiscent of Marcus Robinson’s days with the Bears.
Nate Burleson, Det at Min
With Calvin Johnson looking unlikely to play on Sunday, look for the former Viking Nate Burleson to be the Lions leading receiver. Matthew Stafford will probably lean heavily on Joique Bell and/or Reggie Bush out of the backfield with Burleson, Kris Durham, Kevin Ogletree and Joseph Fauria seeing the rest of the targets. The Vikings have been the 2nd friendliest matchup for WRs this year. Back in Week 1, Burleson tallied 6-78-0 against them while sharing targets with Calvin Johnson.
Rueben Randle, NYG vs. Was
Randle didn’t deliver as anticipated against the Lions last week (4-40-0) but he gets the start one more time this week with Victor Cruz sidelined. Washington’s defense isn’t one to fear as much as one has to openly wonder whether Eli Manning can do enough to warrant starting Randle. He’s clearly a young talented receiver with a bright future ahead of him, but Manning has been dismal this year. Neither team has anything to play for besides pride and bragging rights making Randle as good a gamble as any.
Terrance Williams, Dal vs. Phi
The Cowboys still have a chance to make the playoffs, but their fate rides on the arm of Kyle Orton. Whenever a quarterback change is made, you never know what to expect when it comes to how targets will be distributed. Williams hasn’t done much of anything since his early season success following Miles Austin’s annual chronic bout with his hamstrings. The Eagles are the best possible matchup going for receivers, though, and Williams fared quite well against them in Week 7 when he produced 6-71-1 to pair with Dez Bryant’s 8-110-0 and Cole Beasley’s 6-53-0.
Robert Woods, Buf at NE
Woods is a huge reach in a week filled with a ton of them, but with Stevie Johnson likely missing another game due to the passing of his mother, Woods could potentially fill up the stat sheet in his absence. Woods has super-reliable hands, runs good routes and he has produced 5-82-1 and 3-70-0 the last two weeks. He also caught an 18 yard touchdown against the Patriots in his first NFL game this year.
Stedman Bailey, Stl at Sea
The Seahawks have the league’s best secondary, so this is a difficult matchup all-around for the Rams receiving corps, but Bailey has come on strong down the stretch. He’s arguably the best all-around receiver on the team already. This is a game that could feature plenty of targets for Bailey and the Seahawks have their playoff fate already locked in and their secondary has been hit with suspensions and injuries, so why not roll with Bailey in Week 17? We’ll certainly see more of him next year and beyond.
Ted Ginn, Car at Atl
With Steve Smith (knee) less than 100%, Ginn could see more snaps for the Panthers against a Falcon secondary that has allowed the 8th most points to WRs this year. Of course, Ginn has had his moments this year as Cam Newton’s fourth or fifth target and occasional deep threat. Ginn is as electric as any player in the league in the open field. He hasn’t been very reliable as an every down receiver in the past, but he has the upside and speed to take it to the house on any given play. Brandon LaFell also deserves consideration and he has been as a red zone target for Cam Newton.
Da’Rick Rogers, Ind vs. Jac
Looking past all of the usual sleeper stats, matchups and trends, sometimes the best strategy in Week 17 is to roll with a young but talented player in a game where anything could literally happen. That’s where Rogers comes into play. We’ve seen flashes of his upside and talent in the last month once the Colts finally got tired of watching Darrius Heyward-Bey drop catchable pass after catchable pass. Rogers has as much talent as anyone. Lavon Brazill is also worth a shot in this week 17 tilt against a Jaguar team that is filled with players trying to put something onto tape for an offseason of free agency and/or Gus Bradley’s evaluation going into his second season.
Kenny Stills, NO vs TB
We have not heard from Stills in a while, but he fits right in with the theme of young, talented receivers with a potentially bright future ahead of him looking to make one last big splash as the 2013 seasons comes to a close. The Bucs will likely have Darrelle Revis following Marques Colston leaving Stills as am upside, deep threat in single coverage against the other Bucs young, but vulnerable corners.
TIGHT ENDS
Martellus Bennett, Chi vs. GB
The Packers will be without Clay Mathews and they’ve allowed the fifth most points to tight ends this year. They’ve allowed a touchdown to a tight end in four of their last five games. With Jay Cutler’s return, Bennett has produced 7-85-0 and 6-71-0 the last two weeks. Look for the Black Unicorn as one of Cutler’s key red zone targets in a must-win scenario with the division title on the line.
Coby Fleener, Ind vs. Jac
Fleener is as good as any of the fringe TE1/TE2 options going this week against a Jaguars defense allowing the third most points to tight ends. He produced 5-77-1 in Week 4 against the Jaguars making him a very capable TE1 in the final week of the season. Suffice to say, Fleener is probably a sleeper only in smaller leagues.
Charles Clay, Mia vs. NYJ
Similarly, Clay is a low-TE1 play with a great matchup against the Jets – a team he also fared well against earlier in the year (7-80-0). Beyond that, he and Fleener are both good options this week because playing in what should be safe locations – Fleener inside and Clay in Miami.
Delanie Walker, Ten vs. Hou
Walker is akin to Clay and Fleener as a quasi-TE1 depending on your league. He caught a 10-yard touchdown against the Texans back in Week 2. Houston has allowed the 11th most points to TEs and a few TE2 types have gone off against them in the second half of the year like Mychal Rivera (5-54-1), Rob Housler (4-57-1) and Marcedes Lewis (2-42-1).
Ryan Griffin, Hou at Ten
Griffin will probably play out the string for the Texans with Garrett Graham and Owen Daniels not healthy yet and nothing else to play for but the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. Griffin has performed well in an expanded role with 6-62-0 and 5-66-0, catching all 11 of his targets, the last two weeks. The Titans have allowed the 9th most points to TEs, too. In their last meeting back in Week 2, Daniels and Graham both scored combining for 5-54-2.
Andrew Quarless, GB at Chi
Quarless could be an intriguing option this week with a potential return of Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb to the lineup leaving Quarless as an overlooked, but capable red zone option for a team that loves to leverage their tight end there. The Bears have allowed the fourth most points and Quarless had a pair of 6-66-1 games in Weeks 14 and 15, and he caught 5 balls for 34 yards against the Bears back in Week 9.
Joseph Fauria, Det at Min
Fauria is the Lions only healthy tight end this week and the Vikings have allowed the second most points to tight ends. In their prior game at Ford Field, Fauria produced an unexpected 3-27-1 in his first NFL game as the Lions No. 3 tight end. Fauria is known as a red zone or bust player, but he filled in admirably last Sunday with a 3-43-0 effort against the Giants and a touchdown on Monday night against the Ravens in the week before that. If nothing else, he’s worth a reach in deeper leagues and you can dance along with him after he scores.
Zach Ertz, Phi at Dal
I also love Ertz this week against a Cowboy defense allowing the 8th most points after watching Ertz’s role slowly grow in the second half of the season. He’s still a boom/bust play with limited upside as long as Brent Celek is healthy and Nick Foles continues spreading the ball around to all of the Eagles receivers. Ertz caught 3 balls for 33 yards against the Cowboys in Week 7 (Celek has 1-9-0) and he’s just starting to scratch the surface of his potential.
Brandon Myers, NYG vs. Was
Finally, Myers has a nice matchup against a Washington defense allowing the 7th most points and that he produced 5-61-1 against four weeks ago.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland
The Browns offense will come down to a lot of Josh Gordon and Edwin Baker. It’s on the road in Pittsburgh against a Steeler defense that hasn’t performed well this year, but one that has scored a touchdown in three of their last five games – including their last meeting in Cleveland where the Steelers sacked them 5 times and forced 4 turnovers.
Miami vs. NY Jets
The Jets have been the second-friendliest team in the league for fantasy defenses and the Dolphins shellacked them back in Week 13 in New York holding them to 177 total yards, 3 points while forcing 4 sacks and 3 turnovers. At home with the playoffs looming, the Dolphins could have a repeat performance.
Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville
The Jaguars have been the fifth friendliest matchup for defenses. On their home field back in Week 4, with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback, they were held to 205 yards and 3 points by the Colts while allowing 4 sacks, 3 INTs and a touchdown. In the noisy Lucas Oil Field, the Colts could also have a repeat performance even though Chad Henne is a tougher matchup than Blaine Gabbert was.
Other defenses with good matchups that might be exploitable in these weird Week 17 scenarios:
- Detroit at Minnesota, with Adrian Peterson limited or possibly inactive
- Washington at NY Giants, Eli looking to add to his league-leading INTs and the friendliest matchup in the league for opposing defenses
- San Diego at home against the Chiefs, who could be resting their starters for most of the game
- Tennessee at home against a horrible Texans team
