After a couple decades worth of drafting, I came to the conclusion that I was doing it wrong. In hundreds of real and mock drafts, I had always taken players that I wanted when they were available. While that seems legit, it's wrong. Digging deeper into strategy, there is a better way.
That better way is to take players you want as late as possible. Of course you're probably saying that it's difficult - if not impossible - to know when "as late as possible" really is.
And that's true.
If we like a BenJarvus Green-Ellis, for example, we can approximate his ADP as the 85th player off the board. Of course, he could go earlier than that, so we truly don't know when as late as possible is for Green-Ellis.
But it doesn't matter.
We can solve that by not liking Green-Ellis exactly but liking players similar to Green-Ellis. You know - running backs that have a lot of competition for carries but still will get a good deal of touches. There are several backs that fit that description:
- Shane Vereen
- DeAngelo Williams
- BenJarvus Green-Ellis
- Andre Brown
- Mark Ingram
- Ronnie Hillman
And that's not even a complete list. The players listed above have similar ADP. While some will go earlier than expected, there will be at least one sitting there when he should be. That's the guy like Green-Ellis that we'll get as late as possible.
But before we get the kind of players we want, we need to know when those players should be available. And we are going to do so from the end of the draft first.
By starting at the end, we stay true to the "as late as possible" line of thought. This thought is widely used at kicker and defense as many people wait until the last two rounds for those positions because there are still quality options available there. We are going to keep this going at every position. For example, if we can select a usable WR5 in the 16th round, we don't need to take a WR5 in the 12th.
Here is a general outline for a standard 18-round, 12-team draft in a non-PPR scoring system:
- Round 18: Kicker
- Round 17: Team Defense
- Round 16: TE2
- Round 15: WR6
- Round 14: RB6
- Round 13: QB2
- Round 12: WR5
- Round 11: WR4
- Round 10: RB5
- Round 9: RB4
- Round 8: TE1
- Round 7: WR3
- Round 6: QB1
- Round 5: RB3
- Round 4: RB2
- Round 3: WR2
- Round 2: WR1
- Round 1: RB1
Using those guidelines, let's draft in reverse.
Round 18: Kicker
The Top 11 kickers might be off the board by the time you pick, but it doesn't matter. One of these guys will be there:
- Greg Zuerlein, StL
- Dan Bailey, Dal
- Kai Forbath, Was
- Randy Bullock, Hou
- Robbie Gould, Chi
- Adam Vinatieri, Ind
- Steve Hauschka, Sea
Get one. If he turns out to disappoint, drop him in favor of a free agent darling.
Round 17: Team Defense
In some scoring systems, defenses do matter. After the Seahawks and 49ers are off the board, however, it's difficult to accurately predict which defenses are going to be on the matter list. We certainly aren't going to spend a 7th- or 8th-round pick on one of those elite defenses, so we will wait.
By the 17th round, most of our opponents will have taken their defense, but there will be solid options still on the board. Here are some likely candidates:
- Arizona Cardinals
- Atlanta Falcons
- New York Giants
- Dallas Cowboys
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Miami Dolphins
- Cleveland Browns
- Minnesota Vikings
- San Diego Chargers
- New York Jets
- Kansas City Chiefs
The Buccaneers and Chiefs are especially tempting considering they open the season facing the Jets and Jaguars, respectively. If the New England Patriots happen to drop this fall, they are worth a look too as they face the Bills - who are experiencing a disaster at quarterback right now - in Week 1.
Round 16: TE2
The great thing about waiting so long for a second tight end is that there will still be plenty of options available. What we're looking for is a guy that could surprise and join the Top 10. Here are a few that should fit the bill:
- Rob Housler, Ari
- Dwayne Allen, Ind
- Julius Thomas, Den
- Marcedes Lewis, Jac
- Brent Celek, Phi
- James Casey, Phi
- Zach Miller, Sea
- Travis Kelce, KC
Remember, your TE2 is a take-a-shot player. If you grab Julius Thomas and he does little for the first couple of weeks, feel free to hit the waiver wire for another take-a-shot tight end.
Round 15: WR6
Similar to your TE2, we are taking a shot here. There is no point in taking a guy like Leonard Hankerson - who will never be a difference-making fantasy receiver. Instead, go for broke with one of these guys:
- Keenan Allen, SD
- Markus Wheaton, Pit
- Michael Crabtree, SF
- Dexter McCluster, KC
Sure, all of these guys could easily flop in 2013. And chances are pretty good that Hankerson will finish the season with better stats than most of them.
That doesn't matter. If your WR6 doesn't surpass Hankerson's mediocre production, you didn't fail. Going for broke often misses. When it succeeds, though, you'll be golden.
Round 14: RB6
One can never have a strong enough backfield, so we'll look deep here. Our targets include the following players:
- Bilal Powell, NYJ
- Shonn Greene, Ten
- Daniel Thomas, Mia
- Isaac Redman, Pit
- Joique Bell, Det
- Knowshon Moreno, Den
- Knile Davis, KC
As with our options as WR6, every one of these guys could be awful this season, but what else can you expect from a running back in the 14th round? As with our 15th-round selection, we're going for broke.
Round 13: QB2
In a 12-team league, you'll want a second quarterback. One of these guys will be great options in the 13th round:
- Sam Bradford, StL
- Alex Smith, KC
- Philip Rivers, SD
Obviously, check for bye-week issues with your QB1.
Rounds 11 and 12: WR4 and WR5
Similar to our WR6 options, we want to take a couple of shots here. Unlike our WR6 options, however, we don't want our misses to complete flops. Let's look at one of these receivers:
- Emmanuel Sanders, Pit
- DeAndre Hopkins, Hou
- Michael Floyd, Ari
- Alshon Jeffery, Chi
- Ryan Broyles, Det
- Cordarrelle Patterson, Min
- Rueben Randle, NYG
- Kenbrell Thompkins, NE
- Brian Hartline, Mia
This group of receivers are currently second or third fiddle on thier team, but they could be primed for a breakout in 2013. If they don't explode, they should still have decent production. Getting a couple of them will really round out your wide receiver corps.
Rounds 9 and 10: RB4 and RB5
Same song, second verse at running back. At this stage of your draft, you'll be looking for some quality backfield options. We'll need some guys that - despite being NFL backups - will get a good number of touches all season long. Here is a list of such backs:
- Ben Tate, Hou
- Vick Ballard, Ind
- Fred Jackson, Buf
- Bernard Pierce, Bal
- Bryce Brown, Phi
- Danny Woodhead, SD
- Pierre Thomas, NO
And of course, an injury could elevate one of these guys into possible stud status. Taking two of them increases your chance at winning that lottery.
Round 8: TE1
This is absolutely the sweet spot for your tight end. Obviously, the elite guys are gone, but the following quartet could easily finish 2013 as high-end TE1s:
- Jermichael Finley, GB
- Kyle Rudolph, Min
- Greg Olsen, Car
- Antonio Gates, SD
After these four, the tight end pool looks similar for another dozen players.
Round 7: WR3
This area of your draft is particularly tasty at wide receiver. You should be able to find a player that either have a track record of quality production or the potential to be a star in 2013. Check out these options:
- T.Y. Hilton, Ind
- Cecil Shorts, Jac
- Steve Johnson, Buf
- Greg Jennings, Min
- Tavon Austin, StL
- Anquan Boldin, SF
- Miles Austin, Dal
- Mike Williams, TB
- Kenny Britt, Ten
Any of these guys are nice options for your WR3.
Round 6: RB3
Even in the sixth round, there are starting running backs available. Having three NFL starters in your backfield is always nice, so let's get one of these guys:
- Ryan Mathews, SD
- Montee Ball, Den
- Giovani Bernard, Cin
- Chris Ivory, NYJ
- Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind
- Daryl Richardson, StL
These guys are either currently starting or - in the case of Ball and Bernard - should be very soon.
Round 5: QB1
People love to wait a long time at this position, but this is a nice spot for your quarterback. While one of the elite signal callers likely won't slide, there are very good options availble here:
- Matt Ryan, Atl
- Matthew Stafford, Det
- Colin Kaepernick, SF
- Robert Griffin III, Was
- Andrew Luck, Ind
These studs are almost always gone if you wait a round, so grabbing one here makes sense.
Round 4: RB2
A 4th-round back doesn't come without warts. Whether unproven or injury-prone, the players available here might make you a bit nervous. As a RB2, however, it's worth taking a shot at one of these:
- David Wilson, NYG
- Darren McFadden, Oak
- Darren Sproles, NO
- Lamar Miller, Mia
- Eddie Lacy, GB
While it would be scary to need one of these backs as your top ballcarrier, they offer excellent potential as an RB2.
Round 3: WR2
It seems that most fantasy players look at other positions in the third, the wide receivers available here are excellent:
- Larry Fitzgerald, Ari
- Andre Johnson, Hou
- Roddy White, Atl
- Randall Cobb, GB
- Victor Cruz, NYG
- Vincent Jackson, TB
Many fantasy rosters will have one of these guys as their top receiver. Putting them at WR2 will make you loaded at the position.
Round 2: WR1
While Calvin Johnson is almost always gone in Round 1, the 2nd-round receivers are still excellent. Get one of these:
- A.J. Green, Cin
- Dez Bryant, Dal
- Brandon Marshall, Chi
- Julio Jones, Atl
- Demaryius Thomas, Den
It's never bad to have an elite player to anchor your receivers.
Round 1: RB1
Fantasy football is so easy. Draft one of these studs:
- Adrian Peterson, Min
- Doug Martin, TB
- Jamaal Charles, KC
- Arian Foster, Hou
- C.J. Spiller, Buf
- Marshawn Lynch, Sea
- Ray Rice, Bal
- LeSean McCoy, Phi
- Trent Richardson, Cle
- Alfred Morris, Was
Reverse Drafting Results
Finally, let's take a look at an easily attainable roster.
Rnd | Player Name - Team | Rnd | Player Name - Team | Rnd | Player Name - Team |
6th | QB Colin Kaepernick - SF | 1st | RB Trent Richardson - Cle | 2nd | WR Dez Bryant - Dal |
13th | QB Alex Smith - KC | 4th | RB Darren Sproles - NO | 3rd | WR Victor Cruz - NYG |
8th | TE Jermichael Finley - GB | 5th | RB Chris Ivory - NYJ | 7th | WR Kenny Britt - Ten |
16th | TE Dwayne Allen - Ind | 9th | RB Ben Tate - Hou | 11th | WR Ryan Broyles - Det |
18th | PK Steve Hauschka - Sea | 10th | RB Bryce Brown - Phi | 12th | WR Brian Hartline - Mia |
17th | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14th | RB Joique Bell - Det | 15th | WR Dexter McCluster - KC |
This team has the best of all worlds:
- Balance
- Elite talent at the critical running back and wide receiver positions
- Near-elite quality at quarterback and tight end
- Excellent potential at all four positions
Follow the outline above, and you'll be able to get a similar roster.