Photo: Chuck Cook, USA Today Sports

Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.

Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.

The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.

The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.

We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.

You are very welcome to the ninth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.

Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.

With six more teams on byes this week, studying the matchups and maximising your line-up’s points output is more important than in a normal week. Winning these games really gives a boost to your playoff hopes. Now is the time to go on a run; forget all that has happened so far. Play this thing one week at a time and don’t give up until you’re mathematically eliminated.

Let’s take a look at the best and worst of the IDP matchups this week, shall we?

Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit

Cincinnati front four at Miami

It is all falling apart in Miami for Joe Philbin and Jeff Ireland; it just seems that they cannot get over the hump and be a consistent team. One crucial aspect of their disappointing run has been the play of the offensive line, which has allowed a league-leading 32 sacks. The Dolphins' poor rushing attack hasn't helped, putting all the pressure on Ryan Tannehill to deliver. Cincinnati's front four has been very consistent and has brought the heat all season, averaging pressure on 17.2% of opponent dropbacks. The likes of Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson should feast in this prime time matchup, so get on the Bengals train this week.

Houston front seven vs. Indianapolis

Gary Kubiak has made the bold decision to go with Case Keenum at quarterback, despite Matt Schaub declaring himself fit to play. This could have a knock-on effect on the team, who appeared energised even in defeat when Keenum took the helm at Kansas City. The Texans' defense has done their part this season (20.5% pressure applied) to disrupt the passer; the offense simply hasn't been able to pick up the slack.

The Colts are coming off a bye and can rubberstamp their title credentials in the AFC South with a road win, but they allow pressure on 20.5% of Andrew Luck's dropbacks, a number that will not please head coach Chuck Pagano. The Texans, fighting for their lives, could ride their defense to a win here. Other than JJ Watt, it is difficult to predict where the production will come from, but this is an attractive matchup if you are considering a plug-and-play Houston option.

Pass Rushing Matchup to Avoid

New York Jets front seven vs. New Orleans

The Saints are on a roll and show no signs of slowing down thanks to a locked-in Drew Brees and renewed vigour from their defense. Despite boasting one of the best run-stopping defensive lines in the game, the Jets have been unable to seal the deal, producing pressure on only 13.4% of opponent dropbacks. The Saints, meanwhile, have allowed pressure on 11% of Brees' dropbacks. In a game that is difficult to predict, the smart money is on the Saints to find a way, so tempering your expectations on your Jets defensive players could be the way to go.

Sack Opportunity Table

Tackle Matchups to Exploit

Washington defenders vs. San Diego

San Diego has consistently been one of the best tackle matchups in the league this year, and this week that trend should continue. The Chargers offense averages a healthy 67.7 offensive snaps per game, allowing 56.7 tackle opportunities. The Redskins, meanwhile, have regressed in dramatic fashion from last year's solid defensive unit. However, their poor play shouldn't deter IDP owners from taking full advantage; Perry Riley, DeAngelo Hall, Josh Wilson and rookie Baccari Rambo are excellent plays in this juicy matchup.

Buffalo defenders vs. Kansas City

The Chiefs proficiency running the football with Jamaal Charles – combined with a controlled passing attack – has made them a decent tackle matchup. In a game they will be expected to win, the game script could once again see plenty of tackle opportunity for Buffalo, who average a healthy 55.5 tackle opportunities per game. Rookie revelation Kiko Alonso should be the main beneficiary, while safety Da'Norris Searcy is also poised to rack up the stops. Kansas City will not force Buffalo into their nickel package if the game is going according to plan, so the Bills defensive line – particularly Marcell Dareus – could have sneaky upside.

Tackle Matchups to Avoid

Seattle defenders vs. Tampa Bay

The Seahawks' wobble in St Louis aside, this is a far from favourable matchup for Pete Carroll's squad. Tampa Bay's regime is falling apart at the seams, with turmoil from head coach Greg Schiano all the way down to the misuse of Darrelle Revis, to name but a couple of thorns in the team's side. The play on the field has been poor, and the statistics bear this out: the 0-8 Buccaneers allow opponents 48.6 tackle opportunities per game, a paltry figure for our purposes.

Consider also the differential between Seattle's home tackle opportunities versus their away tackle opportunities, an astounding 14 per game. In the friendly confines of the Pacific North-West, the Seahawks average only 40 tackle opportunities per game, so counting on tackle production from even the most reliable of your Seahawks in this clash would be unwise; look elsewhere, my friends.

Tackle Opportunity Table

Best of luck with Week 9 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.

If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.