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Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the eighth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
The ebb and flow of the NFL never ceases to amaze me. This week saw a plethora of injuries to established stars - both on offense and defense – that will force coordinators and head coaches to alter their plans.
Fantasy football management, much like real life football, puts similar demands on you, the fantasy owners out there. With each passing week, your roster’s depth will be tested. That flier you took on waivers last week may be in your starting line-up this week as your hand is forced.
Change is constant, but if we prepare ourselves the right way and observe the trends in the IDP landscape, we can better withstand the fallout of such catastrophic blows to our line-ups.
Alas, the stretch run continues in fantasy leagues. With the bye week gauntlet in full swing (six teams are off this week), expect matchups to play an even more important part in your thinking. Let's take a glance at some Week 8 matchups to exploit and avoid.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Kansas City front seven vs. Cleveland
Hail to the Chiefs (defense). As a diehard fan of defensive football, I absolutely love watching this unit go about their business. Welcoming a Brandon Weeden-led Browns team to Arrowhead could be the perfect recipe for another rollicking. Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs rank first in sacks (35). Conversely, the Browns allow the fourth most sacks in the NFL. In another stat that may please you, the Chiefs lead the league in quarterback hits, while the Browns top that category in terms of hits allowed.
Are you starting to see what I'm getting at here? To borrow a term from the Simpsons, when a character (I can't recall who) was talking about a boxing match that fictional character Drederick Tatum was involved in: "Tatum'll fustigate him!" I believe the Browns will be fustigated here – and fustigated quite badly.
New Orleans front seven vs. Buffalo
The Bills have allowed the most pressure per dropback in the league this season (23.3%). Dealing with a resurgent Saints front seven in the Superdome may be their biggest challenge yet, especially with the men from the Bayou well rested off the bye. Pro Bowl candidate Cameron Jordan should have a big outing (five sacks, five hits and 24 hurries this year), with Parys Haralson and Junior Galette carrying huge upside in big-play scoring leagues. This could be a bonanza for Saints defenders from a tackle perspective as well, as the Bills offense allows 56.7 opportunities per game.
Pass Rushing Matchup to Avoid
Detroit front four vs. Dallas
The Cowboys have quietly turned into one of the weaker pass rushing matchups for opposing defenders, surrendering pressure on only 9.6% of Tony Romo's dropbacks. The offensive line has played a big part in that, with tackles Doug Free and Tyron Smith anchoring the perimeter and veteran Brian Waters making a real impact inside. Despite being at home, Detroit's defensive line will be tested - they have a sack percentage statistic of only 4.6% (27th in the league). The best bet might be to look elsewhere for pass rushing upside this week.
Sack Opportunity Table
LEAGUE | Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop |
AVERAGE | Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs |
2008 NFL Average | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 |
2009 NFL Average | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 |
2010 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 |
2011 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 |
2012 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 |
2013 NFL Average | 14.3% | 2.7 | 5.5 | 38.8 | 14.3% | 2.7 | 5.5 | 38.8 |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 15.8% | 2.7 | 6.3 | 39.9 | 16.4% | 2.9 | 6.7 | 41 |
ATLANTA Falcons | 12.4% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 39 | 12.2% | 1.5 | 5.2 | 42.3 |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 18.4% | 3.6 | 6.7 | 36.6 | 13.1% | 2.9 | 5.4 | 41.3 |
BUFFALO Bills | 15.2% | 3.1 | 6.4 | 42.3 | 23.3% | 3.4 | 8.6 | 36.9 |
CAROLINA Panthers | 15.2% | 3.2 | 5.7 | 37.3 | 13.8% | 3 | 4.3 | 31.3 |
CHICAGO Bears | 7.1% | 1.4 | 2.4 | 34.1 | 12.1% | 1.6 | 4.4 | 36.7 |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 17.2% | 2.6 | 7.1 | 41.4 | 10.6% | 2.1 | 4 | 37.7 |
CLEVELAND Browns | 14.3% | 2.9 | 6 | 42 | 19.8% | 3.9 | 9.1 | 46.1 |
DALLAS Cowboys | 9.1% | 2.9 | 4.1 | 45.6 | 9.6% | 2.3 | 3.9 | 40.1 |
DENVER Broncos | 14.6% | 2.7 | 6.4 | 44 | 8% | 1.3 | 3.4 | 43 |
DETROIT Lions | 13.3% | 1.9 | 5.4 | 40.7 | 10.7% | 1.3 | 4.6 | 42.7 |
GREEN BAY Packers | 11.9% | 3.3 | 4.8 | 40.5 | 12.8% | 2.5 | 5 | 39.2 |
HOUSTON Texans | 20.9% | 2.3 | 5.6 | 26.7 | 16.6% | 3.1 | 7.1 | 43.1 |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 15.2% | 3 | 5.6 | 36.6 | 20.5% | 2.1 | 7.1 | 34.9 |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 11.6% | 1.6 | 4.1 | 35.6 | 17.6% | 4.1 | 7 | 39.7 |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 17.9% | 5 | 7.3 | 40.7 | 14.6% | 2.6 | 5.6 | 38.3 |
MIAMI Dolphins | 16.9% | 2.8 | 7.2 | 42.3 | 16.3% | 4.3 | 6.7 | 40.8 |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 10.6% | 2 | 4.7 | 44.2 | 15.6% | 2.5 | 6.2 | 39.5 |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 15.5% | 2.6 | 6 | 38.7 | 11.5% | 2.7 | 5 | 43.4 |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 18.1% | 3.3 | 6.8 | 37.7 | 10.3% | 2.5 | 4.3 | 42 |
NEW YORK Giants | 12.2% | 0.9 | 5.1 | 42 | 13.8% | 2.6 | 5.7 | 41.4 |
NEW YORK Jets | 14.4% | 3.4 | 6 | 41.6 | 19.3% | 3.6 | 6.9 | 35.6 |
OAKLAND Raiders | 14.7% | 2.7 | 5.5 | 37.5 | 18.9% | 4.7 | 6.3 | 33.5 |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 8.3% | 2.1 | 3.9 | 46.4 | 17% | 2.4 | 6.3 | 37 |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 11.2% | 1.3 | 3.7 | 32.7 | 14.3% | 3.7 | 5.7 | 39.7 |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 11.8% | 2.7 | 4.3 | 36.3 | 6.6% | 1.6 | 2.6 | 38.7 |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 15.6% | 2.4 | 5.9 | 37.6 | 13.2% | 2.1 | 3.7 | 28.1 |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 19.2% | 3.4 | 7.3 | 37.9 | 19.5% | 2.9 | 6 | 30.7 |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 13.2% | 2.6 | 4.4 | 33.6 | 13% | 2.4 | 5.3 | 40.6 |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 14.3% | 2.3 | 5.5 | 38.3 | 13.4% | 2.3 | 5.3 | 39.7 |
TENNESSEE Titans | 15.6% | 2.9 | 5.6 | 35.7 | 11.7% | 2.6 | 4.1 | 35.4 |
WASHINGTON | 18% | 3 | 6.5 | 36.2 | 13.3% | 1.8 | 5.5 | 41.5 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Minnesota defenders vs. Green Bay
There's plenty of fantasy gold to be mined in this matchup, with the Josh Freeman-led Vikings taking on the upwardly mobile Packers. Freeman's performance on Monday night was atrocious - he consistently missed open receivers and looked completely out of his depth. His familiarity with the playbook was obviously minimal, but an NFL quarterback should be able to put on a better show than that, but I digress.
Freeman's inept play will only aid IDP owners. The Vikings defense ranks first in the league in tackle opportunity (57.7 per game) and the unit shows no signs of improving – and looks to be getting little help from the offense. Safety Jamarca Sanford has notched eight and 10 solo tackles in the past two weeks, so he is an excellent play against a Packers offense allowing 53.8 tackle opportunities per game. The usual suspects - Chad Greenway, Erin Henderson and the cornerbacks - have a high ceiling this week.
New York Giants defenders at Philadelphia
The Eagles'suffered a blip against Dallas that they will look to rebound from in this divisional clash. Remarkably, Chip Kelly's team have lost nine in a row at home going back to 2012. Philadelphia still represents a solid matchup (53.8 tackle opportunities allowed per game), so the porous Giants defense should reap the benefits. The Giants' leading tacklers - Ryan Mundy, Prince Amukamara and Spencer Paysinger - should prove to be nice plug and play options. However, Jon Beason is also making a name for himself in New York. Neither Beason nor Paysinger are playing every down, so there is risk attached to both, but the upside is too good to turn down.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
New England defenders vs. Miami
The Dolphins' offense, despite lofty pre-season expectations related to the Mike Wallace signing, has failed to click into gear. Ranking 31st in the league in offensive snaps (365), poor offensive tackle play and an inability to run the football (31st in the league in rush attempts) have doomed them to the cellar of tackle opportunity allowed (46.5 per game).
New England have taken some injury hits, including Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, crippling the spine of their defense. Despite this, replacement DT Chris Jones and company did a solid job shutting down the Jets' rushing attack last week and they should have no problems handling the so far pedestrian duo of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas.
Tackle Opportunity Table
LEAGUE | Tackle | Rush Atts | Drop Backs | Offensive | Run | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Run | |
AVERAGE | Opps | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | % | Allowed | Atts | Backs | Snaps | % | |
2008 NFL Average | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | |
2009 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | |
2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | |
2011 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | |
2012 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | |
2013 NFL Average | 51.4 | 26.6 | 38.8 | 65.4 | 51.6% | 51.4 | 26.6 | 38.8 | 65.4 | 51.6% | |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 52.4 | 27 | 39.9 | 66.9 | 51.5% | 48 | 22 | 41 | 63 | 45.8% | |
ATLANTA Falcons | 50.2 | 23.8 | 39 | 62.8 | 47.5% | 49.3 | 19.2 | 42.3 | 61.5 | 38.9% | |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 50.7 | 27.3 | 36.6 | 63.9 | 53.8% | 52.1 | 26.4 | 41.3 | 67.7 | 50.7% | |
BUFFALO Bills | 55.4 | 30.7 | 42.3 | 73 | 55.4% | 56.7 | 34.3 | 36.9 | 71.1 | 60.5% | |
CAROLINA Panthers | 49.3 | 22.8 | 37.3 | 60.2 | 46.3% | 54.5 | 33.5 | 31.3 | 64.8 | 61.5% | |
CHICAGO Bears | 52 | 28.9 | 34.1 | 63 | 55.5% | 48.4 | 23.9 | 36.7 | 60.6 | 49.3% | |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 50.6 | 25.6 | 41.4 | 67 | 50.6% | 53.7 | 28.1 | 37.7 | 65.9 | 52.4% | |
CLEVELAND Browns | 54.4 | 28.3 | 42 | 70.3 | 52% | 49.3 | 22.3 | 46.1 | 68.4 | 45.2% | |
DALLAS Cowboys | 53 | 23.6 | 45.6 | 69.1 | 44.5% | 49.3 | 21.1 | 40.1 | 61.3 | 42.9% | |
DENVER Broncos | 50.9 | 23.4 | 44 | 67.4 | 46.1% | 59.7 | 28.6 | 43 | 71.6 | 47.8% | |
DETROIT Lions | 48.6 | 22.4 | 40.7 | 63.1 | 46.2% | 52.1 | 25.4 | 42.7 | 68.1 | 48.8% | |
GREEN BAY Packers | 49 | 23.2 | 40.5 | 63.7 | 47.3% | 53.8 | 27.5 | 39.2 | 66.7 | 51.1% | |
HOUSTON Texans | 46.1 | 29.6 | 26.7 | 56.3 | 64.1% | 57.1 | 28.3 | 43.1 | 71.4 | 49.5% | |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 50.1 | 27.4 | 36.6 | 64 | 54.7% | 50.3 | 28.1 | 34.9 | 63 | 56% | |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 56.1 | 33.1 | 35.6 | 68.7 | 59% | 46.7 | 21.9 | 39.7 | 61.6 | 46.8% | |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 47.1 | 23 | 40.7 | 63.7 | 48.8% | 52.3 | 29 | 38.3 | 67.3 | 55.5% | |
MIAMI Dolphins | 54 | 27.2 | 42.3 | 69.5 | 50.3% | 46.5 | 20 | 40.8 | 60.8 | 43% | |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 57.7 | 28 | 44.2 | 72.2 | 48.6% | 46.7 | 23 | 39.5 | 62.5 | 49.3% | |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 54 | 31.4 | 38.7 | 70.1 | 58.2% | 53.3 | 28 | 43.4 | 71.4 | 52.5% | |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 46.3 | 22.5 | 37.7 | 60.2 | 48.6% | 53.8 | 25.2 | 42 | 67.2 | 46.7% | |
NEW YORK Giants | 54.7 | 29.4 | 42 | 71.4 | 53.8% | 44.4 | 20.7 | 41.4 | 62.1 | 46.6% | |
NEW YORK Jets | 50.6 | 24.7 | 41.6 | 66.3 | 48.9% | 53.4 | 31.3 | 35.6 | 66.9 | 58.6% | |
OAKLAND Raiders | 52.8 | 26.3 | 37.5 | 63.8 | 49.8% | 50.8 | 27.5 | 33.5 | 61 | 54.1% | |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 56.3 | 26.1 | 46.4 | 72.6 | 46.4% | 53.7 | 32.1 | 37 | 69.1 | 59.8% | |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 49.7 | 29.2 | 32.7 | 61.8 | 58.7% | 49 | 21.3 | 39.7 | 61 | 43.5% | |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 48.6 | 22.1 | 36.3 | 58.4 | 45.6% | 56.7 | 28.7 | 38.7 | 67.4 | 50.6% | |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 49 | 26.9 | 37.6 | 64.4 | 54.8% | 50 | 33.1 | 28.1 | 61.3 | 66.3% | |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 48.1 | 24.6 | 37.9 | 62.4 | 51% | 54.3 | 34 | 30.7 | 64.7 | 62.6% | |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 53.7 | 29.9 | 33.6 | 63.4 | 55.6% | 47.6 | 22.1 | 40.6 | 62.7 | 46.5% | |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 50.8 | 25.5 | 38.3 | 63.8 | 50.2% | 48.8 | 26.7 | 39.7 | 66.3 | 54.6% | |
TENNESSEE Titans | 51.3 | 27.6 | 35.7 | 63.3 | 53.8% | 49 | 27.1 | 35.4 | 62.6 | 55.4% | |
WASHINGTON | 51.8 | 27.2 | 36.2 | 63.3 | 52.4% | 53.2 | 27.5 | 41.5 | 69 | 51.7% |
Best of luck with Week 8 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.