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Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the seventh edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don't know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
Writing this in the shadow of the beautiful Edinburgh Castle in picturesque Scotland, I can't help but be struck by the history of the place. If we don't learn from it, it punishes us. We are doomed to repeat it, they say.
Let's make sure that doesn't happen to your IDP teams. Now is an excellent time of the season to get ready for what Vince Lombardi called 'the big push'. It is a time to reassess, remodel and learn from your history.
Make that bold trade. Spend that little bit extra blind bidding money for that player who could make all the difference. It's time to build your roster for the big push.
So let's throw our eye over the best and worst matchups in Week 7 as we prepare for the run-in to the fantasy regular season.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Miami front seven vs. Buffalo
Quite simply, this matchup is too good to turn down. The Bills could be without backup quarterback Thaddeus Lewis, who suffered a foot sprain last week and is considered day to day, meaning desperation signing Matt Flynn would step in. In Flynn's only significant action of the season, he was harassed and hurried behind a suspect Raiders offensive line. The Bills line, according to our pressure allowed metrics, is even worse. Buffalo has surrendered pressure on a mind-boggling 24.3% of dropbacks. Meanwhile, Miami's front seven continues to bring the heat (17% pressure applied) even with Cameron Wake sidelined, and should prosper in this matchup.
Seattle front seven at Arizona
The Cardinals' lack of commitment to the run (24th in rush attempts) continues to haunt them, with Carson Palmer being asked to do too much. Seattle haven't been able to turn pass rush into sacks as much as they would like (2.8 sacks per game), but they apply pressure on an impressive 17.8% of dropbacks. The Seahawks' formula will be tested in this outing as the Cardinals' rush defense is a salty unit; Russell Wilson will be asked to win from the pocket. Then again, this Seahawks defense is due a coming out party in 2013; this matchup against a porous Cardinals offensive line could be just the ticket for the likes of Chris Clemons and Cliff Avril.
Pass Rushing Matchup to Avoid
Minnesota front four at New York Giants
Could this be the game the Giants finally get off the schneid? For our purposes, it matters not; we're in the business of points, and this Vikings' front four has been failing to deliver said points recently. The Vikings have only taken down the quarterback 10 times this season, a poor return considering the presence of Jared Allen, newly -minted Brian Robison and others. Meanwhile, the Giants have cleared things up along the offensive line, allowing only a sack each in their previous two after allowing 10 in the two prior contests. This feels like a 'get right' game for the G-Men at home, and it might be wise to avoid Minnesota pass rushers if you have better options.
| LEAGUE | Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop |
| AVERAGE | Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs |
| 2008 NFL Average | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 |
| 2013 NFL Average | 14.2% | 2.7 | 5.5 | 38.9 | 14.2% | 2.7 | 5.5 | 38.9 |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 14.2% | 2.7 | 5.8 | 41.2 | 14.5% | 2.2 | 5.7 | 39.2 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 12.3% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 37.4 | 12.7% | 1.8 | 5.8 | 45.6 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 18.7% | 3.7 | 7.2 | 38.3 | 14.2% | 3.2 | 6 | 42.3 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 16.3% | 3.3 | 7 | 42.8 | 24.3% | 3.3 | 9 | 37 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 15.6% | 3 | 5.8 | 37.2 | 14.2% | 3.2 | 4.8 | 33.8 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 6.7% | 1.5 | 2.3 | 34.8 | 11.9% | 1.5 | 4.5 | 37.8 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 18% | 3 | 7.2 | 39.8 | 10.9% | 2.3 | 4.2 | 38.2 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 14.4% | 3.2 | 6.2 | 42.8 | 19.8% | 4 | 9.2 | 46.3 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 9% | 2.8 | 4 | 44.5 | 10.3% | 2.3 | 4 | 38.7 |
| DENVER Broncos | 13.8% | 2.8 | 6.2 | 44.7 | 5.6% | 0.8 | 2.3 | 41.3 |
| DETROIT Lions | 14% | 2 | 5.8 | 41.7 | 10.1% | 1.5 | 4.2 | 41.3 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 10.1% | 3.4 | 4 | 39.6 | 12.6% | 2.8 | 5 | 39.6 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 21.9% | 2.3 | 5.5 | 25.2 | 16.2% | 2.8 | 7.3 | 45.3 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 14.3% | 2.8 | 4.8 | 33.8 | 20.6% | 2.2 | 7 | 34 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 12.3% | 1.7 | 4.3 | 35.3 | 17.1% | 3.8 | 7 | 41 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 17.6% | 5 | 7.5 | 42.5 | 14.2% | 2.7 | 5.5 | 38.7 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 17% | 2.6 | 7.4 | 43.6 | 18% | 4.8 | 7.4 | 41.2 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 9.4% | 2 | 4.2 | 44.8 | 13.1% | 2.8 | 4.8 | 36.6 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 15% | 2.3 | 5.8 | 39 | 12.2% | 2.5 | 5.2 | 42.3 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 18.1% | 3.3 | 6.8 | 37.7 | 10.3% | 2.5 | 4.3 | 42 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 9.6% | 0.8 | 3.8 | 40 | 13.3% | 2.7 | 5.5 | 41.5 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 15.8% | 3.3 | 6.3 | 40.2 | 19.3% | 3.5 | 6.8 | 35.3 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 14.7% | 2.7 | 5.5 | 37.5 | 18.9% | 4.7 | 6.3 | 33.5 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 8.7% | 2.2 | 4 | 46 | 18.8% | 2.3 | 6.5 | 34.5 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 12.4% | 1.4 | 4 | 32.2 | 14.2% | 3.8 | 6 | 42.4 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 10.4% | 2.2 | 3.8 | 37 | 6.4% | 1.7 | 2.5 | 39 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 16.4% | 2.3 | 6 | 36.5 | 13.8% | 2.2 | 4 | 29 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 17.8% | 2.8 | 6.3 | 35.5 | 18% | 2.8 | 5.5 | 30.5 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 13.4% | 2.7 | 4.8 | 36 | 13% | 2.2 | 5.3 | 41 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 15.2% | 2.8 | 6.2 | 40.8 | 13.6% | 2.2 | 5.2 | 38.2 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 16.3% | 3 | 6.2 | 37.8 | 11.8% | 2.5 | 4 | 34 |
| WASHINGTON | 18.7% | 3.2 | 7 | 37.4 | 13.7% | 2 | 6 | 43.8 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Dallas defenders at Philadelphia
After making a somewhat inauspicious start to the season under Chip Kelly, who was lauded as an offensive mastermind and someone who shake the very foundations of IDP tackle opportunity, the tide has turned. The Eagles rank ninth in offensive snaps and have reeled off 69, 77 and 65 in their previous three. The takeaway is that this offense is humming. In Nick Foles, they have a smart quarterback who is both composed in the pocket and is a risk taker airing it out downfield. This Cowboys defense ranks above the league average in tackle opportunities (53.8 per game) and should see plenty of action in this crunch battle in the NFC East. Monte Kiffin's unit have somehow managed to scrape together a starting 11, but injuries may take their toll in time. The irrepressible Sean Lee, Jason Hatcher, Bruce Carter and Barry Church are all excellent plays this week.
Kansas City defenders vs. Houston
Despite their record-setting run of pick sixes, the Texans' offense has been a goldmine for fantasy production, staying viable due to their playing from behind and commitment to running the football regardless of the game script. In fact, the Texans' 59.3 tackle opportunities per game figure is the highest in the league. Despite what most people are predicting, this one could be close at Arrowhead. The Chiefs' usual suspects should produce, with Derrick Johnson and Dontari Poe particularly interesting plays against this Houston zone stretch rushing offense.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Tampa Bay defenders at Atlanta
What looks like a good matchup on paper may not be when the players take the field at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons offense, now without Julio Jones and with Roddy White hobbled, looks like a shadow of its former self. Matt Ryan is being hit and hurried on a regular basis and the consistency from this offense just isn't there anymore. Despite the Bucs' above average tackle opportunity per game figure, it is hard to trust Matt Ryan and company to deliver the offensive snaps needed for Tampa's big guns on defense to be more than average plays.
| LEAGUE | Tackle | Rush Attempt | Drop Backs | Offensive | Run | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Run | |
| AVERAGE | Opps | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | % | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | % | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | |
| 2011 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | |
| 2012 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | |
| 2013 NFL Average | 51.5 | 26.5 | 38.9 | 65.3 | 51.5% | 51.5 | 26.5 | 38.9 | 65.3 | 51.5% | |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 52.3 | 26.2 | 41.2 | 67.3 | 50% | 46.8 | 22.7 | 39.2 | 61.8 | 48.4% | |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 48.8 | 23 | 37.4 | 60.4 | 47.1% | 51.6 | 19.4 | 45.6 | 65 | 37.6% | |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 51 | 27 | 38.3 | 65.3 | 52.9% | 52.3 | 26.5 | 42.3 | 68.8 | 50.6% | |
| BUFFALO Bills | 57 | 31.7 | 42.8 | 74.5 | 55.6% | 57 | 35 | 37 | 72 | 61.4% | |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 49.6 | 23.2 | 37.2 | 60.4 | 46.8% | 54.4 | 32.6 | 33.8 | 66.4 | 59.9% | |
| CHICAGO Bears | 50.3 | 26.5 | 34.8 | 61.3 | 52.6% | 49.7 | 24.2 | 37.8 | 62 | 48.7% | |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 50.2 | 25.7 | 39.8 | 65.5 | 51.2% | 55.5 | 29.8 | 38.2 | 68 | 53.8% | |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 54.3 | 28.2 | 42.8 | 71 | 51.8% | 50.3 | 22.2 | 46.3 | 68.5 | 44% | |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 53.8 | 23.7 | 44.5 | 68.2 | 44% | 48.2 | 20.3 | 38.7 | 59 | 42.2% | |
| DENVER Broncos | 50.3 | 22.2 | 44.7 | 66.8 | 44% | 60.8 | 30 | 41.3 | 71.3 | 49.3% | |
| DETROIT Lions | 49.5 | 23.2 | 41.7 | 64.8 | 46.8% | 52 | 25.5 | 41.3 | 66.8 | 49% | |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 50.2 | 23.2 | 39.6 | 62.8 | 46.2% | 53.6 | 27.2 | 39.6 | 66.8 | 50.7% | |
| HOUSTON Texans | 44.3 | 29.2 | 25.2 | 54.3 | 65.8% | 59.3 | 29 | 45.3 | 74.3 | 48.9% | |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 49.7 | 28.7 | 33.8 | 62.5 | 57.7% | 49.7 | 27.7 | 34 | 61.7 | 55.7% | |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 55 | 32 | 35.3 | 67.3 | 58.2% | 46.8 | 22.7 | 41 | 63.7 | 48.4% | |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 47.7 | 22.8 | 42.5 | 65.3 | 47.9% | 51.5 | 28.5 | 38.7 | 67.2 | 55.3% | |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 53.8 | 26.6 | 43.6 | 70.2 | 49.4% | 46.6 | 19 | 41.2 | 60.2 | 40.8% | |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 57.8 | 27.2 | 44.8 | 72 | 47.1% | 49 | 24.8 | 36.6 | 61.4 | 50.6% | |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 50.8 | 28 | 39 | 67 | 55.1% | 54.5 | 29.3 | 42.3 | 71.7 | 53.8% | |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 46.3 | 22.5 | 37.7 | 60.2 | 48.6% | 53.8 | 25.2 | 42 | 67.2 | 46.7% | |
| NEW YORK Giants | 58 | 32 | 40 | 72 | 55.2% | 42.3 | 18.8 | 41.5 | 60.3 | 44.5% | |
| NEW YORK Jets | 51.3 | 25.5 | 40.2 | 65.7 | 49.7% | 50.2 | 27.8 | 35.3 | 63.2 | 55.5% | |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 52.8 | 26.3 | 37.5 | 63.8 | 49.8% | 50.8 | 27.5 | 33.5 | 61 | 54.1% | |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 56.3 | 26.2 | 46 | 72.2 | 46.4% | 54.7 | 33.7 | 34.5 | 68.2 | 61.6% | |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 49.4 | 29.8 | 32.2 | 62 | 60.3% | 49 | 19.8 | 42.4 | 62.2 | 40.4% | |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 49 | 23 | 37 | 60 | 46.9% | 55.7 | 26.8 | 39 | 65.8 | 48.2% | |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 50.3 | 29.2 | 36.5 | 65.7 | 57.9% | 49 | 31.8 | 29 | 60.8 | 65% | |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 47 | 25.7 | 35.5 | 61.2 | 54.6% | 54.5 | 34.3 | 30.5 | 64.8 | 63% | |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 53.5 | 28.5 | 36 | 64.5 | 53.3% | 47.5 | 22.3 | 41 | 63.3 | 47% | |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 53.4 | 27 | 40.8 | 67.8 | 50.6% | 47.2 | 26.4 | 38.2 | 64.6 | 55.9% | |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 50.5 | 25.3 | 37.8 | 63.2 | 50.2% | 50.3 | 29.5 | 34 | 63.5 | 58.6% | |
| WASHINGTON | 54 | 28.2 | 37.4 | 65.6 | 52.2% | 51.4 | 24.4 | 43.8 | 68.2 | 47.5% |
Best of luck with Week 7 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at
larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
