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Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the sixth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don't know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week's games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
It's not time to push the panic button yet, but if you're floundering at 1-4 or 2-3, you should be making moves to rectify that; every line-up decision you make should be gone through with a fine toothcomb. Every waiver claim should be calculated and researched beforehand – lucky for you we've got you covered at Footballguys.
With quarterback changes – enforced and otherwise – abundant in the league, the matchup data we have accumulated so far on certain teams may skew one way or the other. Remember that like a chameleon, the NFL's look is constantly in flux, so it's not wise to get too attached to players; if a player isn't producing, make the move for the player with the favourable matchup.
Fortune favours the bold.
So let's throw our eye over the best and worst matchups in Week 6.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Cincinnati front four at Buffalo
Thaddeus Lewis will be under center for the Bills as they welcome the fearsome front four of the Cincinnati Bengals to town. The Bengals' front four disrupted and harassed Tom Brady last week; imagine what they will do to the inexperienced Lewis. Wallace Gilberry is a player who shone in rotational duty last week and, if available, could be a great plug and play option if you are struggling at defensive end. Geno Atkins is finally rounding into form, while Carlos Dunlap has great upside this week. The Bills give up pressure on a league-high 23.2% of dropbacks – this is a match-up made in heaven.
Detroit front four at Cleveland
I'm rubbing my hands together with glee at the prospect of this one. The transition from Brian Hoyer to Brandon Weeden will open the door for pass rushers to thrive in this Cleveland match-up. As it is, the Browns already surrender pressure like it's going out of fashion, with 9.6 quarterback hits and 4.6 sacks per game. Detroit's front four haven't managed to turn their reputation into points as much as they would like, ranking 21st in pressure applied, but this is a perfect week to turn it around. In a game that should be tight from the get-go, expect Nick Fairley, Ezekial Ansah, Ndamukong Suh and company to take full advantage of Weeden's propensity to hold on to the football.
Pass Rushing Matchup to Avoid
New England front seven vs. New Orleans
The absence of Vince Wilfork doesn't take the wind of the Patriots' sails completely, but Joe Vellano is a significant downgrade and may affect Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich's ability to get one-on-one match-ups in the long run. The Patriots' pressure applied is a respectable 16.2%, but the Saints continue to be solid in pass protection, giving up pressure on only 10.7% of Drew Brees' dropbacks. The Bengals pushed New England around in the ground game last week, a strategy I expect the Saints to replicate on a foggy afternoon in Foxborough. One could argue the Saints are due an off day, but the wise move here is to trust the trend and avoid the Patriots' premiere pass rushers if you can.
SACK OPPORTUNITY
| LEAGUE AVG | Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop |
| AVERAGE | Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs |
| 2008 NFL Average | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 |
| 2013 NFL Average | 14.3% | 2.7 | 5.6 | 39.2 | 14.3% | 2.7 | 5.6 | 39.2 |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 14.4% | 2.8 | 6.2 | 43.2 | 15% | 2.4 | 5.8 | 38.6 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 12.3% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 37.4 | 12.7% | 1.8 | 5.8 | 45.6 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 19.5% | 3.8 | 7.6 | 39 | 14.9% | 2.8 | 6.4 | 43 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 17.3% | 3.4 | 7.4 | 42.8 | 23.2% | 3 | 8.6 | 37 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 16.5% | 3 | 5.8 | 34.8 | 15.5% | 3.8 | 5.5 | 35.5 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 7.1% | 1.6 | 2.6 | 36.4 | 13.1% | 1.8 | 5 | 38.2 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 15.8% | 2.6 | 6.4 | 40.4 | 10.8% | 2.2 | 4 | 37.2 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 16% | 3.6 | 6.8 | 42.6 | 20.6% | 4.4 | 9.6 | 46.6 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 8.4% | 2.8 | 3.8 | 45 | 10% | 2.6 | 4 | 40.2 |
| DENVER Broncos | 14.7% | 3 | 6.6 | 44.8 | 6.3% | 1 | 2.6 | 41.2 |
| DETROIT Lions | 13.7% | 2 | 5.6 | 41 | 10.8% | 1.6 | 4.4 | 40.8 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 10.1% | 3 | 4 | 39.8 | 12.3% | 2.8 | 5 | 40.8 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 22.2% | 2.8 | 6 | 27 | 16.2% | 2.4 | 7.4 | 45.8 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 14.9% | 3 | 5 | 33.6 | 22% | 2.4 | 7.6 | 34.6 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 14.7% | 2 | 5 | 34 | 18.8% | 4.2 | 7.6 | 40.4 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 14.7% | 4 | 6.2 | 42.2 | 12.1% | 2.6 | 4.8 | 39.6 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 17% | 2.6 | 7.4 | 43.6 | 18% | 4.8 | 7.4 | 41.2 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 9.6% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 49.3 | 13.2% | 2.8 | 4.5 | 34 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 16.2% | 2.6 | 6.4 | 39.4 | 11.7% | 2 | 4.8 | 41.2 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 19.1% | 3 | 6.8 | 35.6 | 10.7% | 2.8 | 4.6 | 43 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 10.3% | 1 | 4.2 | 40.8 | 14.4% | 3 | 6.4 | 44.4 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 14.6% | 3.2 | 6 | 41.2 | 20% | 3.6 | 7 | 35 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 12.6% | 2.6 | 4.8 | 38.2 | 15.3% | 3.6 | 4.8 | 31.4 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 9.1% | 2.2 | 4.2 | 46.2 | 18.9% | 2.6 | 6.6 | 35 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 11.3% | 1 | 3.5 | 31 | 12.4% | 3.8 | 5.5 | 44.3 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 9.9% | 2.4 | 3.8 | 38.2 | 5.5% | 1.6 | 2.2 | 39.8 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 17.5% | 2.6 | 6.2 | 35.4 | 14% | 2.2 | 4 | 28.6 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 17.7% | 2.8 | 6.4 | 36.2 | 19.3% | 3 | 5.8 | 30 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.4 | 34.6 | 12.6% | 2.6 | 5.8 | 46 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 14.5% | 3.3 | 6.3 | 43 | 15.8% | 2.3 | 5.8 | 36.5 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 17% | 3.2 | 6.6 | 38.8 | 10.5% | 2.4 | 3.6 | 34.4 |
| WASHINGTON | 19.9% | 3.8 | 7.8 | 39 | 14.1% | 1.8 | 6.3 | 44.3 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
New York Giants defenders at Chicago
My best friend is a Giants fan, so I hear it from him every week about the ineptitude of this team. Their lack of pass rush – a cornerstone of their team's make-up – has evaporated, leaving Eli Manning to pick up the pieces, a task he is not excelling at right now. The Giants' misfortune can be fruitful for IDP purposes, however, and it won't surprise you to hear they boast the league's highest tackle opportunity per game figure (59). After an 11-solo effort against Philadelphia last week, safety Ryan Mundy should be a lock for points. Linebacker Spencer Paysinger and cornerback Prince Amukamara should also figure heavily in the box score.
Washington defenders vs. Dallas
Mike Shanahan's jaw would have dropped on Monday afternoon as he watched Tony Romo slice and dice the Denver defense like they weren't even there. A bye week can't fix what ails you in the NFL, and the Redskins' secondary is arguably the worst out there. As for the defense as a whole, they are averaging 58 tackle opportunities per game (second in the league) and should be peppered with passes by a determined Dallas offense. Perry Riley, London Fletcher, DeAngelo Hall and Brandon Meriweather are all excellent options.
Tackle Matchup to Avoid
San Francisco defenders vs. Arizona
The Cardinals rank a paltry 28th in the league in tackle opportunities allowed and gave us another reason to avoid them last week with a stuttering display at home. Carson Palmer is a mistake waiting to happen and their running game only shows signs of life when the fleet of foot rookie Andre Ellington gets touches. The Niners are around the league average in terms of tackle opportunity, but a putrid Cardinals offense – and a game script that should swing the Niners' way early – should discourage you from trusting your 49ers. Only the likes of Navorro Bowman and Donte Whitner are match-up proof.
TACKLE OPPORTUNITY
| Tackle | Rush Attempt | Drop Backs | Offensive | Run | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Run | ||
| AVERAGE | Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | |
| 2011 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | |
| 2012 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | |
| 2013 NFL Average | 51.5 | 26.3 | 39.2 | 65.5 | 51% | 51.5 | 26.3 | 39.2 | 65.5 | 51% | |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 51.6 | 23.8 | 43.2 | 67 | 46.1% | 46.8 | 23 | 38.6 | 61.6 | 49.1% | |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 48.8 | 23 | 37.4 | 60.4 | 47.1% | 51.6 | 19.4 | 45.6 | 65 | 37.6% | |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 51.2 | 26.4 | 39 | 65.4 | 51.6% | 53.4 | 27.4 | 43 | 70.4 | 51.3% | |
| BUFFALO Bills | 54.4 | 29.8 | 42.8 | 72.6 | 54.8% | 57.2 | 35.6 | 37 | 72.6 | 62.2% | |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 50 | 25.8 | 34.8 | 60.5 | 51.5% | 53 | 31 | 35.5 | 66.5 | 58.5% | |
| CHICAGO Bears | 52.2 | 26.6 | 36.4 | 63 | 51% | 49 | 23.2 | 38.2 | 61.4 | 47.3% | |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 49 | 24.4 | 40.4 | 64.8 | 49.8% | 52.6 | 27.6 | 37.2 | 64.8 | 52.5% | |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 54.4 | 28.2 | 42.6 | 70.8 | 51.8% | 50.6 | 22.4 | 46.6 | 69 | 44.3% | |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 53.6 | 21.8 | 45 | 66.8 | 40.7% | 50.2 | 20.6 | 40.2 | 60.8 | 41% | |
| DENVER Broncos | 49.2 | 21.2 | 44.8 | 66 | 43.1% | 61.6 | 30.2 | 41.2 | 71.4 | 49% | |
| DETROIT Lions | 49.6 | 23.6 | 41 | 64.6 | 47.6% | 51.6 | 25 | 40.8 | 65.8 | 48.4% | |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 51 | 23.5 | 39.8 | 63.3 | 46.1% | 54.5 | 26.5 | 40.8 | 67.3 | 48.6% | |
| HOUSTON Texans | 45.8 | 30 | 27 | 57 | 65.5% | 58.8 | 28.8 | 45.8 | 74.6 | 49% | |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 47.4 | 27 | 33.6 | 60.6 | 57% | 52.4 | 29.8 | 34.6 | 64.4 | 56.9% | |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 54.6 | 32.6 | 34 | 66.6 | 59.7% | 45 | 21.8 | 40.4 | 62.2 | 48.4% | |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 46.2 | 22 | 42.2 | 64.2 | 47.6% | 53 | 28.8 | 39.6 | 68.4 | 54.3% | |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 53.8 | 26.6 | 43.6 | 70.2 | 49.4% | 46.6 | 19 | 41.2 | 60.2 | 40.8% | |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 57.3 | 24.3 | 49.3 | 73.5 | 42.4% | 49.3 | 27.8 | 34 | 61.8 | 56.3% | |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 52.2 | 28.4 | 39.4 | 67.8 | 54.4% | 52.4 | 28.2 | 41.2 | 69.4 | 53.8% | |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 42.6 | 20 | 35.6 | 55.6 | 46.9% | 55.8 | 25 | 43 | 68 | 44.8% | |
| NEW YORK Giants | 59 | 32.6 | 40.8 | 73.4 | 55.3% | 42.6 | 17.4 | 44.4 | 61.8 | 40.8% | |
| NEW YORK Jets | 50.8 | 25.4 | 41.2 | 66.6 | 50% | 51.8 | 29.4 | 35 | 64.4 | 56.8% | |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 54.6 | 26.2 | 38.2 | 64.4 | 48% | 50 | 27.6 | 31.4 | 59 | 55.2% | |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 57.8 | 27.2 | 46.2 | 73.4 | 47.1% | 54.4 | 33.8 | 35 | 68.8 | 62.1% | |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 51.3 | 32.3 | 31 | 63.3 | 62.9% | 47.8 | 18.3 | 44.3 | 62.5 | 38.2% | |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 51.6 | 24.2 | 38.2 | 62.4 | 46.9% | 54.6 | 24.8 | 39.8 | 64.6 | 45.4% | |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 51 | 30.8 | 35.4 | 66.2 | 60.4% | 47.6 | 30.6 | 28.6 | 59.2 | 64.3% | |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 48.4 | 26.8 | 36.2 | 63 | 55.4% | 53.8 | 34.6 | 30 | 64.6 | 64.3% | |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 51.8 | 28.2 | 34.6 | 62.8 | 54.4% | 49.6 | 21.8 | 46 | 67.8 | 44% | |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 52.8 | 25.5 | 43 | 68.5 | 48.3% | 46.8 | 27.8 | 36.5 | 64.3 | 59.4% | |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 49 | 23.8 | 38.8 | 62.6 | 48.6% | 52.4 | 31.4 | 34.4 | 65.8 | 59.9% | |
| WASHINGTON | 58 | 30.5 | 39 | 69.5 | 52.6% | 50.5 | 22.3 | 44.3 | 66.5 | 44.1% |
Best of luck with Week 6 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
