Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the fifth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
We’ve passed the quarter pole mark of most fantasy football seasons and things are entering a higher gear in terms of line-up decisions and waiver wire pick-ups. Suddenly that one-point loss you suffered in Week 1 that you thought wouldn’t be a big deal could be the difference between a playoff berth and putting your feet up come December.
Whether you’ve made a perfect start or you’re struggling to gain a foothold in your league, you've come to the right place. The IDP landscape is fraught with peril, but allow me to be your Sherpa to guide you through the darkness and into the light of play-off and championship glory.
So with that uplifting message delivered, let’s shine some light on the best and worst matchups on Week 5's slate.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Indianapolis front seven vs. Seattle
A courageous performance from one of the most composed quarterbacks in the league, Russell Wilson, played a huge part in Seattle's overtime victory in Houston last week. What went unnoticed was the turnstile-like Seahawks offensive line giving up six sacks, two hits and 12 hurries. This patchwork unit has been exploited this season and, if not for Wilson's ability to escape the pocket and keep plays alive, they would look at lot worse. Seattle's offensive line leaks pressure on 21.4% of dropbacks, so a resurgent Colts defense led by the in-form Robert Mathis (seven sacks, 11 quarterback hurries this season) should be licking their chops at the prospect of this match-up. Linebacker Jerrell Freeman, who already has three sacks this season, has added value and may even be deployed as a spy on Wilson in obvious passing situations.
San Francisco front seven vs. Houston
The injury to Texans left tackle Duane Brown has really affected the line's ability to protect Matt Schaub, who isn't the type of passer who can improvise and make jaw-dropping plays on the run. Schaub's three pick-sixes this season aside, the Niners, coming off 10 days' rest, should be capable of collapsing the pocket and dictating terms in this prime time match-up. Even with pass-rushing phenom Aldon Smith missing, the Niners managed to hassle and harry Sam Bradford last week, with linebacker Navorro Bowman a big contributor in the pass-rush department. Expect to see the Niners attack Schaub in a similar way.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Chicago front four vs. New Orleans
The Bears ran into a highly productive offense in Detroit last week and gave up 40 points, lending credence to the hypothesis that this defense isn't, in fact, who we all thought they were. Marc Trestman's team face a daunting prospect this week in slowing down arguably the league's second hottest passer behind Peyton Manning in the imitable Drew Brees. The Saints allow pressure on only 10.1% of Brees' dropbacks and, although their ground game isn't where it needs to be yet, his quick release and plethora of reliable weapons makes life easier. Meanwhile, Chicago's 5.5% pressure applied statistic is the lowest in the league. Need I say any more?
Cincinnati front four vs. New England
Reeling after a division loss to the Brian Hoyer-led Browns (there's a sentence I never thought I'd be typing this year), Cincinnati look to regroup against a 4-0 Patriots team. The Patriots' offensive line is one of the better units in the league and, despite Tom Brady's struggles this year gelling with his new receivers, the line has allowed pressure on only 9.8% of Brady's dropbacks. The Bengals defensive line has been inconsistent, but stud defensive tackle Geno Atkins showed signs of life with a nice showing last week. Nevertheless, it is tough to trust any defensive line against the Patriots at the moment, so I would temper your expectations on Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson and even the at times unstoppable Atkins.
Sack Opportunity
| LEAGUE | Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop |
| AVERAGE | Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs |
| 2007 NFL Average | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 |
| 2008 NFL Average | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 14.4% | 2.7 | 5.7 | 39.5 | 14.4% | 2.7 | 5.7 | 39.5 |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 11.8% | 1.8 | 5 | 42.5 | 14.1% | 2.5 | 5.8 | 40.8 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 11.7% | 1.8 | 4.8 | 40.8 | 13.3% | 1.8 | 6 | 45 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 21.5% | 3.3 | 8 | 37.3 | 14.4% | 3 | 6.5 | 45.3 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 16.6% | 3 | 7.5 | 45.3 | 22% | 2.8 | 7.8 | 35.3 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 15.6% | 3.3 | 5.7 | 36.3 | 11.5% | 2.7 | 3.7 | 32 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 5.5% | 1.5 | 2 | 36.3 | 11.6% | 1.5 | 4.5 | 38.8 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 15% | 2.3 | 6 | 40 | 9% | 1.8 | 3.5 | 38.8 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 13% | 3.5 | 5.5 | 42.3 | 20.5% | 4.3 | 10.3 | 50 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 10.4% | 3.5 | 4.8 | 45.8 | 8.7% | 2.3 | 3.5 | 40.3 |
| DENVER Broncos | 14.7% | 2.8 | 6.8 | 46 | 7.9% | 1.3 | 3.3 | 41 |
| DETROIT Lions | 15.5% | 2.3 | 6.8 | 43.5 | 10.7% | 0.8 | 4.3 | 39.8 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 9.6% | 2.3 | 3.7 | 38 | 14.4% | 3.3 | 6.3 | 44 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 21% | 3.3 | 6.3 | 29.8 | 17.6% | 2.8 | 8.3 | 47 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 15.6% | 3.3 | 5.3 | 33.8 | 22.5% | 2.5 | 8 | 35.5 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 17.2% | 2 | 5.8 | 33.5 | 20.2% | 4.8 | 8.5 | 42 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 16.8% | 4.3 | 7 | 41.8 | 11.5% | 2.8 | 4.5 | 39.3 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 16.8% | 2.8 | 7.8 | 46 | 19.4% | 4.5 | 7.8 | 40 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 9.6% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 49.3 | 13.2% | 2.8 | 4.5 | 34 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 15.7% | 2.3 | 6.5 | 41.5 | 9.8% | 1.5 | 4 | 41 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 19% | 3 | 6.8 | 35.5 | 10.1% | 3 | 4.5 | 44.5 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 7.3% | 1 | 3 | 41 | 17.2% | 3.5 | 7.3 | 42.3 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 15.8% | 3.5 | 6.3 | 39.5 | 20.5% | 3.5 | 7.8 | 37.8 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 15.7% | 2.8 | 5.5 | 35 | 15.4% | 3.5 | 5 | 32.5 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 10.1% | 2.5 | 4.5 | 44.5 | 17.8% | 3 | 6 | 33.8 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 11.3% | 1 | 3.5 | 31 | 12.4% | 3.8 | 5.5 | 44.3 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 9.1% | 2 | 3.8 | 41 | 6.1% | 1.5 | 2.3 | 37 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 19.9% | 3 | 6.8 | 34 | 11.8% | 2.5 | 3.8 | 31.8 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 17.3% | 3 | 6.5 | 37.5 | 21.4% | 3.3 | 6.3 | 29.3 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 12.9% | 2.3 | 4.5 | 34.8 | 13.9% | 2.8 | 6.8 | 48.5 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 14.5% | 3.3 | 6.3 | 43 | 15.8% | 2.3 | 5.8 | 36.5 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 17.6% | 3.5 | 6.8 | 38.3 | 11.7% | 2.3 | 3.8 | 32 |
| WASHINGTON | 19.9% | 3.8 | 7.8 | 39 | 14.1% | 1.8 | 6.3 | 44.3 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Cleveland defenders vs. Buffalo
The Bills offense continues to be run-heavy and up-tempo and is allowing a fruitful 58 tackle opportunities per game. On the flip side, Cleveland's defense faces 54.5 opportunities per game. This looks like a match-up where the likes of D'Qwell Jackson and Craig Robertson could reach double-digit tackles, there's ample opportunity for the rest of the Browns defense as well.
Oakland defenders vs. San Diego
The Chargers offense is humming under Philip Rivers and new head coach Mike McCoy, who has ceded more control to his quarterback at the line of scrimmage. In this rescheduled match-up of AFC West foes, the Chargers offense should be able to move the football consistently. The Raiders defense averages 54 tackle opportunities per game, and this game could be just the ticket for San Diego to get their ground attack going. Nick Roach and company should prosper, so plug in your Raiders this week.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Carolina defenders at Arizona
Cardinals head coach described his offense as 'putrid' in last week's less than convincing 13-10 win in Tampa. He wasn't far off with this damning assessment; the Cardinals offense has allowed only 46.3 tackle opportunities per game. Their inability to establish a consistent rushing attack has been a major factor, but Carson Palmer's protection is also letting him down. Carolina defenders except Luke Kuechly should be benched this week if possible.
Tackle Opportunity
| LEAGUE | Tackle | Rush Attempt | Drop Backs | Offensive | Run | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Run |
| AVERAGE | Opportunity | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | Percentage |
| 2007 NFL Average | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | 49.8% | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% |
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | 49.3% | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | 49.9% | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | 49.9% | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% |
| 2011 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50% | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% |
| 2012 NFL Average | 51.7 | 26.2 | 39.5 | 65.7 | 50.7% | 51.7% | 26.2 | 39.5 | 65.7 | 50.7% |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 52.5 | 24.8 | 42.5 | 67.3 | 47.1% | 46.3% | 21.8 | 40.8 | 62.5 | 47% |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 50.5 | 23.3 | 40.8 | 64 | 46% | 49.3% | 18.8 | 45 | 63.8 | 38.1% |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 54.5 | 30.3 | 37.3 | 67.5 | 55.5% | 51.5% | 24.3 | 45.3 | 69.5 | 47.1% |
| BUFFALO Bills | 55 | 29.3 | 45.3 | 74.5 | 53.2% | 58% | 36.8 | 35.3 | 72 | 63.4% |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 50.3 | 25 | 36.3 | 61.3 | 49.7% | 54.7% | 34.7 | 32 | 66.7 | 63.4% |
| CHICAGO Bears | 50.5 | 26.3 | 36.3 | 62.5 | 52% | 50% | 24.5 | 38.8 | 63.3 | 49% |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 51.3 | 26 | 40 | 66 | 50.7% | 50% | 24.8 | 38.8 | 63.5 | 49.5% |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 54.5 | 27.5 | 42.3 | 69.8 | 50.5% | 50.3% | 20 | 50 | 70 | 39.8% |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 51 | 19.5 | 45.8 | 65.3 | 38.2% | 52% | 22.3 | 40.3 | 62.5 | 42.8% |
| DENVER Broncos | 50.8 | 23 | 46 | 69 | 45.3% | 61% | 30 | 41 | 71 | 49.2% |
| DETROIT Lions | 48.5 | 21.3 | 43.5 | 64.8 | 43.8% | 52.3% | 26.5 | 39.8 | 66.3 | 50.7% |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 51.7 | 25 | 38 | 63 | 48.4% | 54.7% | 24.3 | 44 | 68.3 | 44.5% |
| HOUSTON Texans | 46.5 | 28.5 | 29.8 | 58.3 | 61.3% | 60.3% | 28.5 | 47 | 75.5 | 47.3% |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 46.5 | 25.3 | 33.8 | 59 | 54.3% | 53.8% | 30 | 35.5 | 65.5 | 55.8% |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 54 | 31.8 | 33.5 | 65.3 | 58.8% | 45.5% | 21 | 42 | 63 | 46.2% |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 46.3 | 22 | 41.8 | 63.8 | 47.6% | 54.3% | 29.5 | 39.3 | 68.8 | 54.4% |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 52 | 23.3 | 46 | 69.3 | 44.7% | 48.8% | 21 | 40 | 61 | 43.1% |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 57.3 | 24.3 | 49.3 | 73.5 | 42.4% | 49.3% | 27.8 | 34 | 61.8 | 56.3% |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 49.5 | 25.8 | 41.5 | 67.3 | 52% | 55.5% | 30.8 | 41 | 71.8 | 55.4% |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 42 | 20.5 | 35.5 | 56 | 48.8% | 55% | 24.3 | 44.5 | 68.8 | 44.1% |
| NEW YORK Giants | 58.8 | 31.5 | 41 | 72.5 | 53.6% | 42.8% | 17.5 | 42.3 | 59.8 | 40.9% |
| NEW YORK Jets | 48.3 | 26.3 | 39.5 | 65.8 | 54.4% | 54.3% | 31.3 | 37.8 | 69 | 57.6% |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 54 | 28 | 35 | 63 | 51.9% | 50% | 27.5 | 32.5 | 60 | 55% |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 61.8 | 29.8 | 44.5 | 74.3 | 48.2% | 53% | 33 | 33.8 | 66.8 | 62.3% |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 51.3 | 32.3 | 31 | 63.3 | 62.9% | 47.8% | 18.3 | 44.3 | 62.5 | 38.2% |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 52 | 23.3 | 41 | 64.3 | 44.7% | 54% | 26.3 | 37 | 63.3 | 48.6% |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 50.5 | 31 | 34 | 65 | 61.4% | 48.8% | 29.3 | 31.8 | 61 | 60% |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 48.8 | 26.3 | 37.5 | 63.8 | 53.8% | 54.5% | 34.8 | 29.3 | 64 | 63.8% |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 54 | 29 | 34.8 | 63.8 | 53.7% | 47.8% | 18.3 | 48.5 | 66.8 | 38.2% |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 52.8 | 25.5 | 43 | 68.5 | 48.3% | 46.8% | 27.8 | 36.5 | 64.3 | 59.4% |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 49.3 | 23.3 | 38.3 | 61.5 | 47.2% | 54% | 33.8 | 32 | 65.8 | 62.5% |
| WASHINGTON | 58 | 30.5 | 39 | 69.5 | 52.6% | 50.5% | 22.3 | 44.3 | 66.5 | 44.1% |
Best of luck with Week 5 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
