Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the fourth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
With three weeks of the season in the books, patterns are beginning to emerge, some for the better and some for the worse. Players we thought would be contributors are falling by the wayside, leaving us to scramble for waiver wire alternatives. Adaptability is the key in the IDP landscape. It is essential to stay abreast of the changing situations in line-ups – and to capitalise on them, of course.
Fortunately, our match-up data is accumulating nicely and we now have more data points to sift through and a better chance of hitting the jackpot or avoiding that treacherous false friend.
So without further ado, let’s sink our teeth into an enticing set of Week 4 matchups to exploit and avoid.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Cincinnati front four at Cleveland
The Bengals’ front four has been on a tear of late, with Michael Johnson (in his contract year) a standout. Through three weeks Johnson has registered two quarterback sacks, five hits and nine hurries to go along with a steady eight solo tackles and one assist in run defense. As plucky as Cleveland’s offense looked last week in Minnesota, however, this offensive line is giving up pressure on a league-high 22% of quarterback dropbacks. Part of the reason for that is the fact the Browns have trailed in a couple of games, but Oniel Cousins and Mitchell Schwartz in particular are struggling. The Bengals are averaging two sacks and six hits per game; expect to see that number shoot up this week in this AFC North clash.
Kansas City front seven vs. New York Giants
Although the demoralising 38-0 loss to Carolina has skewed this statistic somewhat, the New York Giants have allowed 3.8 sacks per game and 7.3 quarterback hits through only three weeks. This offensive line is ripping at the seams and they can expect no respite against a stifling Kansas City defense that has excelled so far. Outside linebacker Justin Houston has notched up seven sacks, one hit and eight hurries and should keep up that torrid pace. The Giants will attempt to use more max protect and rely on the ground game to ease the heat on Eli Manning, but the game script may force them away from that strategy. The likes of nose tackle Dontari Poe (four sacks this season) has appeal in leagues that require defensive tackles.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Miami front four at New Orleans
Things are looking bright for the upstart Dolphins. Behind the precision passing of Ryan Tannehill and a stubborn defense, they have vaulted themselves into the picture for the playoffs. However, losing Cameron Wake will blunt their potent pass rush against a Saints offense that allows pressure on only 10.9% of Drew Brees’ dropbacks. Rookie defensive end Dion Jordan and Olivier Vernon will be asked to pick up the slack, but neither of them comes close to Wake’s immense talent. Despite Miami’s impressive 19.6% pressure applied statistic, the wise move is to look elsewhere for pass rushing options.
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Baltimore defenders at Buffalo
Averaging 69.1 offensive snaps per game through the first three weeks – and 55 tackle opportunities - the Doug Marrone-led Bills have not shied away from an up-tempo offense. EJ Manuel has made his mistakes, but is a smart quarterback who can process plays and concepts and execute them true to their conception. Baltimore have been playing some excellent defense and should stymie the Bills’ somewhat, but that won’t take Marrone away from his game plan. Expect in excess of 55 snaps in a game where the Bills may have to play catch-up. Leading tacklers Lardarius Webb, Daryl Smith and Jimmy Smith should figure heavily and have high ceiling in this matchup.
Philadelphia defenders at Denver
In what could be a shootout at Mile High, the Eagles defense will face their toughest challenge yet against the mercurial Peyton Manning and co. With Philadelphia’s lightning-quick offense scoring so quickly, the defense has averaged 61 tackle opportunities per game, the highest in the league. Meanwhile, Denver have kept defenses busy, averaging 60 tackle opportunities allowed per game. Quite simply, this is a matchup made in heaven for IDP nuts like you and I. Mychal Kendricks (21-3) and Demeco Ryans (18-9) in particular should have field days.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Arizona defenders at Tampa Bay
Josh Freeman’s struggles have had a knock-on effect on the rest of the Bucs offense, but things likely won't improve with Mike Glennon getting the start. Tampa Bay allows only 43.3 tackle opportunities per game and, against a steady Cardinals defense, this trend should continue. Expectations should be tempered for the likes of standout rookie safety Tyrann Mathieu and Karlos Dansby.
Best of luck with Week 4 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.