Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the second edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
After a whirlwind Week 1, it’s tempting to assume we know all there is to know and that patterns have now been determined, but it couldn’t be further from the truth. In some cases, things were confirmed to us; in others, we got a healthy dose of reality, forcing us to revise our original analysis.
As far as how that affects our fantasy line-ups, it shouldn’t – at least, not yet. It would be unwise to overreact to a Week 1 performance; trust me, I’ve done it and have subsequently been burned by my rash decision.
If the season was a pizza, all we’ve got is a slice.
And with that juicy metaphor on our minds, let’s tuck in to a delectable set of matchups to exploit and avoid in Week 2.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Cincinnati front four vs. Pittsburgh
Whenever Pittsburgh’s offensive line is in the equation, the solution usually equals sacks for the opposing defensive front. With center Maurkice Pouncey out for the season with a torn ACL and MCL, Mike Tomlin has some reshuffling to do up front. However, Cincinnati’s vaunted front four failed to register a sack against a new-look Chicago offensive front last week in a matchup many thought was nailed on for fantasy points. Regardless, this Steelers offense looks to be in an early tailspin and with home advantage, players like Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap should profit this week.
Miami front seven at Indianapolis
Take this with a pinch of salt, but the Colts already lead the NFL in pressure allowed per snap with a whopping 29.6%. Miami pushed around a solid Browns offensive line last week, with superstar defensive end Cameron Wake wreaking havoc (three sacks, two hits, five hurries). The book on Indianapolis coming into 2013 read: offensive line worries. Expect a barrage of pressure from the ‘Fins front seven with ample opportunity for the likes of Olivier Vernon and first round pick Dion Jordan to shine.
Pass Rushing Matchup to Avoid
New York Jets front seven at New England
The Jets front seven managed to hit the 14.7% pressure applied on Josh Freeman’s 34 dropbacks in Week 1, but they’ll see a familiar up-tempo offense in Foxborough that may nullify their pass rushing prowess. With Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen due to miss the game, New England’s offense may struggle, especially if Brady is forced to hold on to the football. Nevertheless, Bill Belichick would have had his eye on this one even before the trip to Buffalo and will know how to attack rookie quarterback Geno Smith. The smart money is on New England getting out to an early lead and nursing it from there on the ground. Look elsewhere for upside plays for sacks and turnovers.
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
San Diego defenders at Philadelphia
*** LARKIN’S MATCHUP OF THE WEEK ***
The grand unveiling of Chip Kelly’s offense on the Monday night stage was everything the masses hoped for and more. The Eagles offense ran in excess of 50 plays at lightning-quick pace in the first half, with quarterback Michael Vick running the read-option with smooth precision. The domino effect, of course, is that all defensive players facing the Eagles get a bump until we see a team slow this offense down. Some may say I am overreacting, but even if the Eagles are in come-from-behind mode, their offense will still be fast-paced; the game script won’t change Kelly’s strategy.
The Chargers, after a horrendous collapse against Houston, will be looking to rebound. In a similarly enticing matchup, linebackers Bront Bird (10-4 vs. Houston) and Donald Butler (9-4-0.5) should notch 10 tackles apiece, with safety Eric Weddle (7-2), who blitzed often in Week 1, making his owners happy as well. We should see more of the same from Philadelphia, and the Chargers will be the beneficiaries.
Tampa Bay defenders vs. New Orleans
A more balanced New Orleans offense under returning head coach Sean Payton recorded an impressive victory over Atlanta last week; now they go for 2-0 in the division. Historically a very good tackle matchup, the New Orleans offense will give Tampa Bay plenty to think about. Villain of the piece in New York last week, weakside linebacker Lavonte David (6-2) is poised for a productive outing, as is the improving Mason Foster, who tallied a pair of sacks last week. Take advantage of this excellent matchup and plug your Buccaneers into your line-up.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Buffalo defenders vs. Carolina
Whether Cam Newton’s assertion that he is pleased with how Mike Shula attacked Seattle is true or not, Carolina’s offense has plenty of work to do on the scoreboard after recording a measly seven points in their home opener. Admittedly, a typically stubborn Seattle stymied their running attack to short gains and Newton was safe with the football, but the lack of 10+ yard plays was a concern. However, an even greater concern will be the play of the offensive line, which lost right guard Garry Williams for the year to a torn ACL and MCL.
On the other side of the ledger, Buffalo’s aggressive, attacking defense managed to unsettle the often unflappable Tom Brady in their season opener. Expect Mike Pettine to draw up some complex blitzes to keep Newton in the pocket. Carolina will struggle to generate sustained drives, so it is hard for me to recommend Buffalo defenders, despite strong weeks from Da’Norris Searcy, Jim Leonhard and Kiko Alonso.
Oakland defenders vs. Jacksonville
Totalling only 48 tackle opportunities allowed last week in comeback mode against the Chiefs, Jacksonville continues to be a poor matchup. With Blaine Gabbert due to sit with a lacerated hand, the Raiders defense should be able to manage veteran Chad Henne. In what could be a matchup to decide the No 1 overall pick in next year’s draft, I would temper your expectations for your Raiders. Nick Roach (8-1) is a possible exception.
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Best of luck with Week 2 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.