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Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the sixteenth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don't know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week's games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
The final hurdle of the fantasy season is before us. After sixteen painstaking weeks of setting line-ups, free agent acquisitions and agonising over this player or that, it all comes down to this.
If you're one of the many unfortunate owners to have been left on the sidelines after a narrow defeat in the semi-finals, don't fret. You'll improve, you'll learn from your mistakes and you'll come back next year stronger than ever if you play your cards right.
As for the lucky handful, here are the best and worst IDP matchups for this oh-so-crucial Week 16 slate.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Kansas City front seven vs. Indianapolis
In a possible play-off preview, the uneven Colts visit noisy Kansas City. This one could be a cagey affair with neither team willing to show the other their hand. Nevertheless there should be points to plunder, especially considering the Colts' offensive line issues. Indianapolis allow pressure on 17.9% of dropbacks. Although the Chiefs have already secured a play-off berth, they will be looking to continue their recent fireworks offensively, likely putting the Colts in catch-up mode. All of your Chiefs have added upside this week, so play them without hesitation.
Detroit front four vs. New York Giants
A team in a worrying decline faces another team in worrying decline. What happens when these forces meet? Well, we'll find out, but the results won't be pretty. The Lions are one of the most baffling teams in the league, but one thing they can be relied on for is their pass rush. Great seasons from the likes of Ndamukong Suh, Willie Young and to a lesser extent Ezekiel Ansah, have made this defensive line one to be feared. And the Giants should be afraid. Although the men from New York have allowed very few sacks this season, they don't often face a unit as formidable as this one. In one of my gut calls this week, I fancy the Lions to deliver big in a must-have game (a call I'll probably regret).
Pass Rushing Matchup to Avoid
Houston front seven vs. Denver
Denver have done a masterful job of protecting Peyton Manning this season. Houston is statistically one of the best pass rushing teams in the league according to our metrics, applying pressure on an impressive 21% of dropbacks. However, they haven't been able to finish the job, with only two sacks per game compared to 6.6 hits. Expect Denver to have it their way in Reliant Stadium, with a controlled running game mixed in with Manning magic snuffing out any Texans pass rushing threat.
Sack Opportunity Table
| LEAGUE | Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop |
| AVERAGE | Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs |
| 2008 NFL Average | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 |
| 2013 NFL Average | 13.6% | 2.5 | 5.2 | 38.2 | 13.6% | 2.5 | 5.2 | 38.2 |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 16.4% | 2.9 | 7.1 | 43.2 | 15.8% | 2.7 | 6.1 | 38.4 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 11.5% | 2 | 4.1 | 35.4 | 13.9% | 2.4 | 6 | 43.2 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 15.1% | 2.8 | 5.7 | 37.8 | 13.5% | 3 | 5.5 | 40.6 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 15.2% | 3.4 | 6 | 39.4 | 19% | 3.1 | 6.9 | 36.5 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 15.9% | 3.2 | 5.9 | 37.4 | 11.7% | 2.7 | 3.9 | 33 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 8.9% | 1.9 | 3 | 33.6 | 13.5% | 1.7 | 5.2 | 38.6 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 15.3% | 2.6 | 6.3 | 41 | 9.1% | 1.9 | 3.5 | 38.6 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 14.1% | 2.8 | 5.8 | 41.1 | 16.9% | 3.1 | 7.8 | 46 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 9.2% | 2.1 | 3.9 | 42.1 | 9.5% | 2.4 | 3.7 | 39 |
| DENVER Broncos | 13.8% | 2.6 | 5.6 | 41 | 7% | 1.1 | 3 | 42.8 |
| DETROIT Lions | 14.5% | 2 | 5.4 | 37.5 | 9.6% | 1.1 | 3.9 | 41.1 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 11.9% | 3 | 4.5 | 37.7 | 13.2% | 2.8 | 5 | 37.9 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 21% | 2.1 | 6.6 | 31.4 | 16.8% | 2.7 | 7.2 | 42.9 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 14.3% | 2.4 | 5 | 35.1 | 17.9% | 2.1 | 6.9 | 38.3 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 12.3% | 1.9 | 4.6 | 37.3 | 16.6% | 3.3 | 6.4 | 38.8 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 12% | 3.1 | 4.9 | 40.4 | 12.1% | 2.4 | 4.5 | 37.3 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 14.6% | 2.9 | 5.9 | 40.5 | 15% | 3.7 | 6.1 | 40.9 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 12.3% | 2.4 | 5.4 | 43.7 | 14.1% | 2.6 | 5.3 | 37.4 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 15.1% | 2.9 | 6 | 39.9 | 12.1% | 2.6 | 5.3 | 43.9 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 18.1% | 3.1 | 6.3 | 34.7 | 11.4% | 2.2 | 4.9 | 43.3 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 13.7% | 2.1 | 5.3 | 38.5 | 14.2% | 2.6 | 5.4 | 37.9 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 13.1% | 2.7 | 5.1 | 38.9 | 19.9% | 3.4 | 6.6 | 33 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 13.4% | 2.5 | 4.9 | 36.8 | 12.7% | 3 | 4.4 | 34.8 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 7.6% | 2.3 | 3.4 | 44.1 | 15% | 2.7 | 5.3 | 35.3 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 11.6% | 2.1 | 4.3 | 37 | 10.9% | 2.9 | 4.4 | 40.5 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 9.9% | 2.2 | 3.6 | 35.9 | 9.2% | 1.9 | 3.4 | 37.1 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 13.7% | 2.5 | 5.1 | 37.5 | 12.9% | 2.4 | 3.6 | 28.3 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 16.9% | 2.9 | 6.1 | 36.4 | 19.2% | 2.6 | 5.6 | 29 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 14.8% | 3 | 5.4 | 36.7 | 13.1% | 2.4 | 4.6 | 34.9 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 14.7% | 2.4 | 5.6 | 37.8 | 13.8% | 2.7 | 4.8 | 34.6 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 12.7% | 2.4 | 4.6 | 36.4 | 13.2% | 2.4 | 4.9 | 36.9 |
| WASHINGTON | 13.7% | 2.4 | 4.8 | 34.9 | 14.9% | 2.7 | 6 | 40.4 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Dallas defenders at Washington
The Cowboys could be playing the lovechild of David Carr and Blaine Gabbert at quarterback and I still wouldn't trust their defense to make a stop. They have reached an embarrassing level of futility on that side of the ball. That trend should continue against a Redskins team who, despite all the turmoil, have managed to put together decent offensive outputs recently. Kirk Cousins got into his comfort zone after a slow start in Atlanta, and should find plenty of success at home. Sean Lee is likely to miss out again if Jerry Jones' pronouncement that he is out for the season is anything to go by. Load up on your Cowboys marginal options if you are looking for a high upside play.
Oakland defenders at San Diego
Ranking third in the league in tackle opportunity allowed, the Chargers have provided a solid go-to matchup for our purposes all season. Oakland is circling the drain defensively; Philip Rivers and company should have a field day against a team that gave up 56 points to the Chiefs. Plug in the likes of Nick Roach, Charles Woodson and Lamarr Houston in what should be a points bonanza.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Seattle defenders vs. Arizona
In all honesty, I could make this recommendation every week. Seattle breaks most of the rules of matchup IDP in that they are such a consistently good unit, showing very few outliers this season in their level of play. As a result they rank 27th in the league in tackle opportunity, with an average of 45.8 tackle opportunities per game at CenturyLink Field. Arizona have been very solid as of late and have everything to play for – but so do the Seahawks. While there is some big play upside with Carson Palmer throwing the football for the likes of Byron Maxwell and Earl Thomas, my advice is to keep away from your ‘Hawks players if you can.
Tackle Opportunity Table
| LEAGUE | Tackle | Rush Attempt | Drop Backs | Offensive | Run | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Run | |
| AVERAGE | Opps | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | % | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | % | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | |
| 2011 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | |
| 2012 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | |
| 2013 NFL Average | 51.4 | 27 | 38.2 | 65.2 | 52.5% | 51.4 | 27 | 38.2 | 65.2 | 52.5% | |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 50.2 | 23.4 | 43.2 | 66.6 | 46.5% | 51.2 | 25.5 | 38.4 | 63.9 | 49.8% | |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 52.6 | 28.3 | 35.4 | 63.7 | 53.7% | 49.6 | 20.1 | 43.2 | 63.3 | 40.4% | |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 50.3 | 26.8 | 37.8 | 64.6 | 53.3% | 51.6 | 27.2 | 40.6 | 67.9 | 52.8% | |
| BUFFALO Bills | 53.5 | 29.8 | 39.4 | 69.2 | 55.7% | 55.1 | 32.9 | 36.5 | 69.4 | 59.7% | |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 47.4 | 21.6 | 37.4 | 58.9 | 45.5% | 52.7 | 31.1 | 33 | 64.1 | 59.1% | |
| CHICAGO Bears | 50.6 | 29.4 | 33.6 | 63 | 58.2% | 51.5 | 25.7 | 38.6 | 64.4 | 49.9% | |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 50.7 | 25.3 | 41 | 66.3 | 49.9% | 54.1 | 29.6 | 38.6 | 68.1 | 54.7% | |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 54.1 | 28.1 | 41.1 | 69.3 | 52% | 49.1 | 21.9 | 46 | 67.9 | 44.5% | |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 54.9 | 26.8 | 42.1 | 68.9 | 48.8% | 46.9 | 21.1 | 39 | 60.1 | 45% | |
| DENVER Broncos | 52 | 26.7 | 41 | 67.7 | 51.4% | 58.9 | 29.6 | 42.8 | 72.4 | 50.2% | |
| DETROIT Lions | 47.1 | 24 | 37.5 | 61.5 | 51% | 51.9 | 27.6 | 41.1 | 68.6 | 53.2% | |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 51.5 | 27.1 | 37.7 | 64.8 | 52.6% | 53.9 | 28.2 | 37.9 | 66.1 | 52.4% | |
| HOUSTON Texans | 47.9 | 28.6 | 31.4 | 59.9 | 59.7% | 52.5 | 26.1 | 42.9 | 69 | 49.8% | |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 51.7 | 29.4 | 35.1 | 64.5 | 56.9% | 48 | 24.6 | 38.3 | 62.9 | 51.3% | |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 55.1 | 31.1 | 37.3 | 68.4 | 56.4% | 48.6 | 24.3 | 38.8 | 63.1 | 49.9% | |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 49.1 | 25.6 | 40.4 | 65.9 | 52.1% | 51.1 | 27.5 | 37.3 | 64.8 | 53.8% | |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 53.1 | 28 | 40.5 | 68.5 | 52.8% | 49.4 | 22.4 | 40.9 | 63.4 | 45.4% | |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 55.4 | 27.3 | 43.7 | 71 | 49.2% | 51.9 | 27.6 | 37.4 | 64.9 | 53.2% | |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 53.9 | 29.9 | 39.9 | 69.7 | 55.4% | 55.9 | 28.1 | 43.9 | 72 | 50.4% | |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 47.4 | 25.1 | 34.7 | 59.8 | 52.9% | 53.8 | 23.6 | 43.3 | 66.9 | 43.8% | |
| NEW YORK Giants | 52.9 | 28.2 | 38.5 | 66.7 | 53.3% | 46.6 | 23.2 | 37.9 | 61.1 | 49.8% | |
| NEW YORK Jets | 51.6 | 27 | 38.9 | 65.9 | 52.3% | 49.1 | 29.4 | 33 | 62.4 | 60% | |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 52.3 | 26.8 | 36.8 | 63.6 | 51.2% | 49.9 | 28.5 | 34.8 | 63.3 | 57.2% | |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 56.6 | 28.9 | 44.1 | 73 | 51.1% | 52.9 | 30.8 | 35.3 | 66.1 | 58.2% | |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 49.7 | 27.3 | 37 | 64.3 | 54.9% | 51.3 | 24 | 40.5 | 64.5 | 46.8% | |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 48.4 | 23.1 | 35.9 | 59 | 47.7% | 55.5 | 29.5 | 37.1 | 66.6 | 53.2% | |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 47.9 | 25.3 | 37.5 | 62.8 | 52.8% | 49.7 | 32.3 | 28.3 | 60.6 | 64.9% | |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 48.3 | 25.7 | 36.4 | 62.1 | 53.3% | 52.1 | 32.4 | 29 | 61.4 | 62.1% | |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 53.4 | 27.2 | 36.7 | 63.9 | 51% | 47.6 | 26.4 | 34.9 | 61.3 | 55.4% | |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 51 | 26.4 | 37.8 | 64.1 | 51.7% | 47.9 | 27.1 | 34.6 | 61.6 | 56.6% | |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 52.4 | 28.8 | 36.4 | 65.2 | 54.9% | 50.8 | 27.3 | 36.9 | 64.1 | 53.7% | |
| WASHINGTON | 51.9 | 27.5 | 34.9 | 62.4 | 53 | 54.1 | 28.8 | 40.4 | 69.1 | 53.2% |
Best of luck with Week 16 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
