Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the fifteenth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
It is amazing what a little adverse weather can do to throw the best laid plans of teams into disarray. Last week featured an above average helping of missed tackles, giving offensive players the advantage and ever so slightly impacting our IDP bottom line – points.
Hopefully you have braved the elements and come out the other side in a play-off semi-final. Early reports on NFL Weather indicate that heavy snow could affect Cleveland and New York, but a repeat of last week’s snowstorm is not on the cards.
So in this most crucial of weeks – with a championship berth on the line – let us dissect the best and worst matchups in Week 15.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Carolina front four vs. New York Jets
In what should serve as a rebound game for the Panthers after an embarrassing 31-13 loss in the Big Easy last week, the Carolina front four should be the primary beneficiaries against a Jets offense that surrenders pressure on 19.5% of Geno Smith’s dropbacks. With Charles Johnson another week removed from his MCL sprain and a point to prove at home, count on the Panthers defensive line to wreak havoc.
Buffalo front four at Jacksonville
The Bills have been a surprisingly strong pass rushing matchup all season, averaging 3.3 sacks and 5.8 hits per game. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have allowed 41 sacks this season and face a Buffalo defense that ranks second in the league with 43 sacks. This certainly sounds like a promising recipe for success despite the Bills' struggles as of late.
Pass Rushing Matchup to Avoid
Baltimore front seven at Detroit
Call this a gut feeling, but Detroit surely won't lay another egg and continue their trend of almost, but not quite, grasping this division title in both hands. On the prime time stage under the lights at Ford Field, the Lions need to get over the hump. A Ravens defense that averages pressure on 15.2% of quarterback dropbacks won't make it easy, but this Lions offensive line has played stellar football all season, allowing only 1.2 sacks per game despite Matthew Stafford's above average dropbacks per game total of 41.5. Baltimore will be just as eager to get the win, but my feeling is that a strong defensive performance by the Lions anchored in stopping the run will help keep their offense balanced and keep the Ravens' pass rush at bay.
Sack Opportunity Table
LEAGUE | Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop |
AVERAGE | Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs |
2008 NFL Average | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 |
2009 NFL Average | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 |
2010 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 |
2011 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 |
2012 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 |
2013 NFL Average | 13.6% | 2.6 | 5.2 | 38.1 | 13.6% | 2.6 | 5.2 | 38.1 |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 16.7% | 2.9 | 7 | 41.8 | 15.8% | 2.8 | 6.2 | 38.9 |
ATLANTA Falcons | 11.8% | 2.1 | 4.1 | 34.6 | 13.8% | 2.4 | 6 | 43.4 |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 15.2% | 2.9 | 5.8 | 38 | 13.2% | 3.2 | 5.4 | 40.8 |
BUFFALO Bills | 14.9% | 3.3 | 5.8 | 39.3 | 18.8% | 3 | 7 | 37.2 |
CAROLINA Panthers | 15.3% | 3.2 | 5.8 | 37.8 | 11.9% | 2.8 | 4 | 33.5 |
CHICAGO Bears | 8.8% | 2.1 | 2.9 | 33.2 | 12.8% | 1.7 | 5 | 39.1 |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 15.7% | 2.8 | 6.6 | 42.2 | 9.1% | 2 | 3.5 | 38.1 |
CLEVELAND Browns | 13.4% | 2.8 | 5.6 | 41.8 | 17.4% | 3.4 | 8.1 | 46.5 |
DALLAS Cowboys | 9.1% | 2.1 | 3.8 | 42.2 | 9.7% | 2.3 | 3.7 | 38.1 |
DENVER Broncos | 13.9% | 2.6 | 5.9 | 42.5 | 7.2% | 1.2 | 3.1 | 42.8 |
DETROIT Lions | 14.2% | 2.1 | 5.3 | 37.4 | 9.3% | 1.2 | 3.8 | 41.5 |
GREEN BAY Packers | 12.4% | 3 | 4.5 | 36.7 | 13.5% | 2.8 | 5.1 | 37.7 |
HOUSTON Texans | 21.7% | 2.2 | 6.8 | 31.2 | 16.5% | 2.6 | 7.2 | 43.2 |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 13.7% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 34.8 | 18.3% | 2.2 | 7.1 | 38.7 |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 11.7% | 1.8 | 4.5 | 38 | 16.3% | 3.2 | 6.3 | 38.6 |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 13% | 3.3 | 5.2 | 40.3 | 12.3% | 2.5 | 4.7 | 38.1 |
MIAMI Dolphins | 14.9% | 3 | 5.8 | 39.3 | 15.2% | 3.7 | 6.2 | 40.9 |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 11.6% | 2.3 | 5 | 43.1 | 14.2% | 2.6 | 5.3 | 37.3 |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 15.3% | 2.8 | 6.1 | 39.8 | 12% | 2.7 | 5.2 | 42.9 |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 18.7% | 3.3 | 6.7 | 35.8 | 11.4% | 2.1 | 4.8 | 42 |
NEW YORK Giants | 13.2% | 1.9 | 5.2 | 38.9 | 13.8% | 2.5 | 5.2 | 37.8 |
NEW YORK Jets | 13.3% | 2.8 | 5.3 | 39.8 | 19.5% | 3.3 | 6.5 | 33.1 |
OAKLAND Raiders | 13.7% | 2.5 | 5.2 | 37.5 | 13.9% | 3.2 | 4.8 | 34.3 |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 7.3% | 2.2 | 3.2 | 44.5 | 14.5% | 2.6 | 4.9 | 34 |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 11.8% | 2.2 | 4.3 | 36.4 | 11.1% | 3.1 | 4.6 | 41.6 |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 10.4% | 2.3 | 3.7 | 35.5 | 9.3% | 1.8 | 3.5 | 38.2 |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 13.6% | 2.4 | 5.1 | 37.5 | 13.2% | 2.5 | 3.7 | 28.1 |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 16.8% | 2.8 | 6.1 | 36.2 | 19% | 2.5 | 5.5 | 28.7 |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 15.2% | 2.9 | 5.3 | 34.9 | 13.4% | 2.5 | 4.8 | 36.1 |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 15.1% | 2.4 | 5.8 | 38.3 | 13.7% | 2.6 | 4.7 | 34.3 |
TENNESSEE Titans | 12.6% | 2.4 | 4.6 | 36.8 | 13.2% | 2.3 | 4.6 | 35 |
WASHINGTON | 13.6% | 2.3 | 4.7 | 34.4 | 15.4% | 2.8 | 6.2 | 39.9 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Miami defenders vs. New England
In a must-win game for the Dolphins to keep their chase for a wild card spot alive, the Patriots offense – even without Rob Gronkowski – should offer enough tackle opportunity to keep Miami defenders viable. The Patriots offense has taken off since Gronkowski's return, however, so expectations may need to be tempered. Bill Belichick is a master adjustor and should find ways to get the likes of Shane Vereen and Julian Edelman involved in what will most likely be a quickfire attack to nullify the Miami pass rush. The Dolphins rank ninth in tackle opportunity and should have their hands full in this matchup.
Minnesota defenders vs. Philadelphia
In a battle of the two teams who lead the league in tackle opportunity, we turn once again to one of the most reliable teams for consistent tackles, the Vikings. Coming in with 56.1 tackle opportunities per game, they represent a strong option against a Philadelphia offense that can rack up the points in a hurry – especially on a fast track. The Eagles allow 53.4 tackle opportunities per game and their run percentage is in the top five at 60.2%. All of this adds up to production for the likes of Audie Cole - who has secured an every-down role - Erin Henderson and Andrew Sendejo.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Seattle defenders at New York Giants
The early forecast is for highs of 37, with lows of 17 and snow likely. Not exactly conditions conducive to fantasy production, especially not for a Seattle defense that has averaged only 48.9 tackle opportunities per game. If there is one glimmer of hope for your Seattle IDP owners out there, it is the discrepancy between the ‘Hawks road and home tackle numbers. At home, Pete Carroll's defense averages only 45.8 tackle opportunities, compared to 51.6 on the road. Regardless, the Giants are eliminated from play-off contention and should pose little threat to a swarming Seahawks unit. Whatever the weather, the best play may be to sit your Seahawks.
Tackle Opportunity Chart
LEAGUE | Tackle | Rush Attempt | Drop Backs | Offensive | Run | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Run | |
AVERAGE | Opps | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | % | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | % | |
2008 NFL Average | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | |
2009 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | |
2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | |
2011 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | |
2012 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | |
2013 NFL Average | 51.4 | 27 | 38.1 | 65.2 | 52.6% | 51.4 | 27 | 38.1 | 65.2 | 52.6% | |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 49.6 | 23.7 | 41.8 | 65.5 | 47.8% | 50.7 | 24.7 | 38.9 | 63.6 | 48.7% | |
ATLANTA Falcons | 52.8 | 28.8 | 34.6 | 63.5 | 54.7% | 49.4 | 20 | 43.4 | 63.4 | 40.5% | |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 50.5 | 26.7 | 38 | 64.7 | 52.8% | 52.3 | 27.7 | 40.8 | 68.5 | 52.9% | |
BUFFALO Bills | 53.2 | 29.7 | 39.3 | 69 | 55.8% | 54.3 | 32 | 37.2 | 69.2 | 58.9% | |
CAROLINA Panthers | 47.5 | 21.1 | 37.8 | 58.8 | 44.4% | 52.6 | 30.8 | 33.5 | 64.3 | 58.5% | |
CHICAGO Bears | 51.4 | 30.4 | 33.2 | 63.5 | 59.1% | 51.2 | 25.3 | 39.1 | 64.4 | 49.4% | |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 50.2 | 24.5 | 42.2 | 66.6 | 48.7% | 54.5 | 30.2 | 38.1 | 68.2 | 55.3% | |
CLEVELAND Browns | 54 | 27.9 | 41.8 | 69.7 | 51.7% | 49.8 | 22.2 | 46.5 | 68.8 | 44.6% | |
DALLAS Cowboys | 54.9 | 26.8 | 42.2 | 68.9 | 48.7% | 46.6 | 21.3 | 38.1 | 59.4 | 45.7% | |
DENVER Broncos | 51.5 | 25.4 | 42.5 | 67.8 | 49.3% | 60.5 | 31 | 42.8 | 73.8 | 51.3% | |
DETROIT Lions | 47.5 | 24.2 | 37.4 | 61.6 | 51.1% | 52.2 | 27.5 | 41.5 | 69.1 | 52.7% | |
GREEN BAY Packers | 51.6 | 27.8 | 36.7 | 64.5 | 53.8% | 53.8 | 28.3 | 37.7 | 66 | 52.6% | |
HOUSTON Texans | 47.2 | 28 | 31.2 | 59.2 | 59.3% | 52.9 | 26.2 | 43.2 | 69.5 | 49.6% | |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 52.1 | 29.8 | 34.8 | 64.6 | 57.2% | 47.4 | 23.8 | 38.7 | 62.5 | 50.2% | |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 54.3 | 30.1 | 38 | 68.1 | 55.4% | 48 | 23.8 | 38.6 | 62.4 | 49.5% | |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 48.8 | 25 | 40.3 | 65.3 | 51.3% | 51.5 | 27.8 | 38.1 | 65.8 | 54% | |
MIAMI Dolphins | 52.8 | 28.5 | 39.3 | 67.8 | 53.9% | 49.2 | 22.4 | 40.9 | 63.3 | 45.5% | |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 56.1 | 28.4 | 43.1 | 71.5 | 50.6% | 50.9 | 27 | 37.3 | 64.3 | 53% | |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 54.1 | 30.4 | 39.8 | 70.2 | 56.2% | 55.8 | 28.6 | 42.9 | 71.5 | 51.3% | |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 47.3 | 24.4 | 35.8 | 60.2 | 51.5% | 53.1 | 23.8 | 42 | 65.8 | 44.9% | |
NEW YORK Giants | 52.5 | 27.8 | 38.9 | 66.7 | 52.9% | 47.1 | 23.9 | 37.8 | 61.7 | 50.8% | |
NEW YORK Jets | 51.5 | 26.3 | 39.8 | 66.2 | 51.1% | 49.2 | 29.5 | 33.1 | 62.6 | 60% | |
OAKLAND Raiders | 52.8 | 27 | 37.5 | 64.5 | 51.2% | 49.6 | 28.2 | 34.3 | 62.5 | 56.7% | |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 56.1 | 28.5 | 44.5 | 73 | 50.8% | 53.4 | 32.2 | 34 | 66.2 | 60.2% | |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 49.8 | 27.7 | 36.4 | 64.1 | 55.6% | 50.8 | 23.1 | 41.6 | 64.7 | 45.4% | |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 49.1 | 24 | 35.5 | 59.5 | 48.9% | 55.3 | 28.4 | 38.2 | 66.6 | 51.3% | |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 49 | 26.3 | 37.5 | 63.8 | 53.7% | 48.8 | 31.7 | 28.1 | 59.8 | 64.9% | |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 48.9 | 26.6 | 36.2 | 62.8 | 54.4% | 51.7 | 32.2 | 28.7 | 60.9 | 62.4% | |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 52.6 | 27.8 | 34.9 | 62.7 | 52.8% | 47.5 | 25.8 | 36.1 | 61.8 | 54.2% | |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 50.2 | 25.3 | 38.3 | 63.6 | 50.4% | 48.9 | 28.2 | 34.3 | 62.5 | 57.7% | |
TENNESSEE Titans | 52 | 28.2 | 36.8 | 65 | 54.3% | 50.2 | 27.9 | 35 | 62.9 | 55.6% | |
WASHINGTON | 51.8 | 28 | 34.4 | 62.4 | 54.1 | 54.3 | 29.4 | 39.9 | 69.3 | 54.1% |
Best of luck with Week 15 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.