Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the fourteenth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
Depending on your playoff system, this could be your last week of setting a line-up and participating in the ritual of fantasy football for a long time. I, along with my colleagues, am here to ensure that doesn’t happen.
There's nothing quite like a playoff game in fantasy football. It forces you to put all your eggs in one basket; after all, all of the work you have done to this point has been to get into the tournament, to give yourself a shot at glory. That's all anyone asks.
If you're on the outside looking in, don't fret. Sometimes it's even more fun to spoil a party than to attend one, if you catch my drift.
The overarching point here is this: this is a tremendous and fulfilling hobby we all take part in. It enriches our understanding and love of the game, and that is something to be treasured. Enjoy every second of it.
So, are you the risk-taker or the patience merchant? Will you go all-in or hold your cards? Every matchup is different and your opponent's strengths and weaknesses should factor into your decisions. Let's take a look at some of the best matchups to exploit and avoid in Week 14.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Cincinnati front four vs. Indianapolis
The Bengals continue to grind out results, while the Colts are showing signs of creaking, especially defensively. Away from Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis allow 19.9% pressure on Andrew Luck's dropbacks; Cincinnati, meanwhile, rank in the top five in pressure applied. This matchup appears to be one the Bengals can take advantage of if they play their cards right.
Houston front seven at Jacksonville
Wade Phillips' unit is a baffling one; despite leading the league in pressure applied (22.3%), they have been unable to finish the job with sacks and big plays. Jacksonville are improving little by little, but their offensive line has weaknesses that can be exploited. If Houston can control this game (by no means a certainty), they should be able to get into good pass-rushing situations against a Jaguars offense that allows pressure on 16.5% of dropbacks.
Pass Rushing Matchup to Avoid
Philadelphia front seven vs. Detroit
The Lions are one of the stingiest offensive lines in the league, allowing pressure on Matthew Stafford on only 9.7% of dropbacks, with only 1.3 sacks per game. Philadelphia have improved on the defensive line, with Cedric Thornton and Fletcher Cox leading the way, but they may struggle against an underrated Lions offensive line. It is unlikely Philadelphia pass rushers would play a prominent role in your line-ups as it is, but steer clear of them if you can.
Sack Opportunity Table
LEAGUE | Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop |
AVERAGE | Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs |
2008 NFL Average | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 |
2009 NFL Average | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 |
2010 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 |
2011 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 |
2012 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 |
2013 NFL Average | 13.9% | 2.6 | 5.3 | 38.2 | 13.9% | 2.6 | 5.3 | 38.2 |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 16.4% | 2.8 | 7 | 42.8 | 16.5% | 2.9 | 6.5 | 39.4 |
ATLANTA Falcons | 11.4% | 1.8 | 3.9 | 34.4 | 14.4% | 2.5 | 6.3 | 44 |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 16% | 3.2 | 6.1 | 38 | 13.6% | 3.3 | 5.4 | 39.8 |
BUFFALO Bills | 15.5% | 3.5 | 6.3 | 40.4 | 17.6% | 2.7 | 6.5 | 36.9 |
CAROLINA Panthers | 15.2% | 3.3 | 5.7 | 37.3 | 11.3% | 2.6 | 3.8 | 33.1 |
CHICAGO Bears | 8.9% | 2.1 | 3 | 33.7 | 13.2% | 1.8 | 5.2 | 39.3 |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 16.3% | 3 | 6.8 | 41.8 | 9.8% | 2.2 | 3.8 | 38.3 |
CLEVELAND Browns | 13.8% | 2.8 | 5.6 | 40.6 | 17.9% | 3.6 | 8.3 | 46.7 |
DALLAS Cowboys | 9.2% | 2.2 | 3.9 | 42.6 | 9.8% | 2.3 | 3.8 | 39 |
DENVER Broncos | 13.9% | 2.7 | 6.1 | 43.8 | 7.8% | 1.3 | 3.3 | 41.5 |
DETROIT Lions | 14.9% | 2.3 | 5.8 | 38.7 | 9.7% | 1.3 | 4.2 | 42.9 |
GREEN BAY Packers | 12.9% | 3.2 | 4.8 | 36.8 | 13.2% | 2.7 | 5 | 37.8 |
HOUSTON Texans | 22.3% | 2.3 | 7 | 31.4 | 17% | 2.6 | 7.1 | 41.8 |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 14.8% | 2.5 | 5.2 | 34.8 | 19.3% | 2.4 | 7.3 | 38.1 |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 11.5% | 1.7 | 4.2 | 36.1 | 16.5% | 3.3 | 6.5 | 39.4 |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 13% | 3.1 | 5.2 | 39.7 | 12.7% | 2.7 | 5 | 39.3 |
MIAMI Dolphins | 15.6% | 3 | 6.1 | 39.1 | 15.7% | 3.8 | 6.5 | 41.3 |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 11.8% | 2.3 | 5 | 42.3 | 15% | 2.8 | 5.6 | 37.3 |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 15.7% | 2.9 | 6.2 | 39.3 | 12.2% | 2.6 | 5.1 | 41.8 |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 18.7% | 3.2 | 6.7 | 35.6 | 11% | 2.1 | 4.6 | 41.8 |
NEW YORK Giants | 13.2% | 1.9 | 5.3 | 39.7 | 13.8% | 2.6 | 5.3 | 38.1 |
NEW YORK Jets | 13.4% | 2.8 | 5.3 | 39.9 | 19.3% | 3.5 | 6.5 | 33.7 |
OAKLAND Raiders | 13.2% | 2.7 | 5.1 | 38.5 | 14% | 3.3 | 4.8 | 33.9 |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 7.6% | 2.4 | 3.5 | 46.2 | 15.2% | 2.8 | 5.3 | 35 |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 12.1% | 2.1 | 4.4 | 36.4 | 11.4% | 3.1 | 4.8 | 41.6 |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 10.1% | 2.3 | 3.6 | 35.6 | 9% | 1.8 | 3.5 | 38.9 |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 13.9% | 2.4 | 5.3 | 38.3 | 13.5% | 2.5 | 3.8 | 27.8 |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 17.3% | 2.9 | 6.3 | 36.7 | 19.9% | 2.5 | 5.8 | 28.8 |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 15.9% | 3.1 | 5.6 | 35.1 | 12.8% | 2.4 | 4.7 | 36.5 |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 13.5% | 2 | 5.2 | 38.2 | 14.3% | 2.8 | 5 | 35 |
TENNESSEE Titans | 14.1% | 2.6 | 4.9 | 34.9 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.7 | 35.8 |
WASHINGTON | 14.2% | 2.5 | 5 | 35.3 | 15.7% | 2.6 | 6.2 | 39.3 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Kansas City defenders at Washington
The Chiefs defense find themselves on a slippery slope all of a sudden. During their winning streak the pass rush was humming, offenses they faced were struggling and all looked promising. Injuries have taken their toll, however, and the quality of opposition has been raised. In the past three weeks, the Chiefs defense has faced 60, 55 and 53 tackle opportunities; their average is 49.3. Part of this is that they've faced the Broncos offense two of the three weeks, but Washington remains an excellent tackle matchup. Despite all their woes and question marks over RGIII, the Redskins allow 55.3 tackle opportunities per game, with 30.4 rush attempts per game. Rain is forecast for the game, so expect the ground game to get in gear. Washington's zone scheme puts the onus on perimeter defenders to make tackles, so cornerbacks Sean Smith and Brandon Flowers, as well as Eric Berry, will prove high-upside plays.
Cleveland defenders at New England
Brandon Weeden has dragged this ship down to the ocean floor – and his abject offensive displays are having a serious effect on the Browns defense. The pendulum has swung for the team's most solid unit; they allow 53.8 tackle opportunities per game, while six players have accumulated 40+ solo tackles. New England may lack defensive firepower after crippling injuries, but their offense has taken off. At home they average 58.7 tackle opportunities allowed, a recipe for success if you are fielding any Browns defenders. Since the return of Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots offense has taken off. Expect fireworks in Foxborough.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Chicago defenders vs. Dallas
The Cowboys offense ranks dead last in the league in tackle opportunities allowed (TOA), producing their best tackle opportunity allowed at home. In frigid Chicago on Monday evening, the wise play would be to stick with the trend. DeMarco Murray and an improving effort from the Dallas offensive line has seen the team rush 20 and 30 times respectively in the last two weeks. Prior to that, however, Romo and co had produced paltry totals. This is not a vote of confidence in the Bears defense to deliver; rather it is a damning indictment of the Dallas offense (46.8 tackle opportunities allowed per game). This is a prime example of a 'stay away' game in such an important week.
Tackle Opportunity Table
LEAGUE | Tackle | Rush Attempt | Drop Backs | Offensive | Run | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Run | |
AVERAGE | Opps | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | % | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | % | |
2008 NFL Average | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | |
2009 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | |
2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | |
2011 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | |
2012 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | |
2013 NFL Average | 51.5 | 27 | 38.2 | 65.3 | 52.5% | 51.5 | 27 | 38.2 | 65.3 | 52.5% | |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 50.5 | 24.1 | 42.8 | 66.8 | 47.7% | 49.9 | 24.1 | 39.4 | 63.5 | 48.2% | |
ATLANTA Falcons | 52 | 28.5 | 34.4 | 62.9 | 54.8% | 49.8 | 19.8 | 44 | 63.8 | 39.6% | |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 50.3 | 26.8 | 38 | 64.8 | 53.3% | 52.8 | 27.8 | 39.8 | 67.6 | 52.5% | |
BUFFALO Bills | 53.8 | 29.2 | 40.4 | 69.6 | 54.2% | 54.9 | 32.8 | 36.9 | 69.8 | 59.8% | |
CAROLINA Panthers | 47.3 | 21.4 | 37.3 | 58.7 | 45.2% | 52.8 | 31.4 | 33.1 | 64.5 | 59.5% | |
CHICAGO Bears | 52 | 30.6 | 33.7 | 64.3 | 58.8% | 50.5 | 24.8 | 39.3 | 64 | 49% | |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 51 | 25.5 | 41.8 | 67.3 | 50% | 54.2 | 29.8 | 38.3 | 68.1 | 54.9% | |
CLEVELAND Browns | 53.8 | 28.5 | 40.6 | 69.1 | 53% | 49.4 | 22 | 46.7 | 68.7 | 44.5% | |
DALLAS Cowboys | 54.5 | 26.3 | 42.6 | 68.9 | 48.3% | 46.8 | 20.8 | 39 | 59.8 | 44.3% | |
DENVER Broncos | 52.8 | 25.7 | 43.8 | 69.5 | 48.7% | 59.6 | 30.9 | 41.5 | 72.4 | 51.9% | |
DETROIT Lions | 46.7 | 22.4 | 38.7 | 61.1 | 48% | 53 | 27.1 | 42.9 | 70 | 51.1% | |
GREEN BAY Packers | 52.3 | 28.2 | 36.8 | 64.9 | 53.9% | 53.1 | 27.9 | 37.8 | 65.7 | 52.6% | |
HOUSTON Texans | 47.7 | 28 | 31.4 | 59.4 | 58.7% | 52.8 | 26.8 | 41.8 | 68.6 | 50.9% | |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 51.5 | 29.3 | 34.8 | 64.2 | 57% | 47.9 | 24.8 | 38.1 | 62.8 | 51.7% | |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 54.3 | 31 | 36.1 | 67.1 | 57.1% | 48.5 | 23.4 | 39.4 | 62.8 | 48.3% | |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 49.3 | 25.7 | 39.7 | 65.3 | 52% | 51.3 | 26.9 | 39.3 | 66.3 | 52.4% | |
MIAMI Dolphins | 53.3 | 29.1 | 39.1 | 68.2 | 54.6% | 49.3 | 22.3 | 41.3 | 63.6 | 45.1% | |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 56.9 | 28.5 | 42.3 | 70.8 | 50.1% | 50.8 | 27.2 | 37.3 | 64.4 | 53.5% | |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 54 | 30.8 | 39.3 | 70.2 | 57.1% | 55.7 | 29.3 | 41.8 | 71.1 | 52.5% | |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 47.1 | 24.5 | 35.6 | 60.1 | 52% | 53.4 | 24.4 | 41.8 | 66.3 | 45.7% | |
NEW YORK Giants | 51.7 | 26.8 | 39.7 | 66.4 | 51.8% | 47.5 | 24.3 | 38.1 | 62.3 | 51.1% | |
NEW YORK Jets | 51.7 | 26.3 | 39.9 | 66.3 | 51% | 49.3 | 29.3 | 33.7 | 63 | 59.6% | |
OAKLAND Raiders | 53.1 | 26.6 | 38.5 | 65.1 | 50.1% | 49.7 | 28.3 | 33.9 | 62.3 | 57% | |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 57.2 | 28.1 | 46.2 | 74.3 | 49.1% | 53.1 | 31 | 35 | 66 | 58.4% | |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 50.1 | 28 | 36.4 | 64.4 | 55.9% | 51.2 | 23.3 | 41.6 | 64.8 | 45.4% | |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 49.7 | 24.3 | 35.6 | 59.9 | 49% | 54.7 | 27.4 | 38.9 | 66.3 | 50.2% | |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 49.8 | 26.6 | 38.3 | 64.9 | 53.4% | 48.8 | 31.6 | 27.8 | 59.4 | 64.8% | |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 48.8 | 26.1 | 36.7 | 62.8 | 53.4% | 52.7 | 33 | 28.8 | 61.8 | 62.7% | |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 52 | 27.4 | 35.1 | 62.5 | 52.7% | 48.3 | 26.3 | 36.5 | 62.8 | 54.6% | |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 50.5 | 25.6 | 38.2 | 63.8 | 50.7% | 49.2 | 27.6 | 35 | 62.6 | 56.1% | |
TENNESSEE Titans | 50.4 | 27.9 | 34.9 | 62.8 | 55.4% | 51.3 | 28.4 | 35.8 | 64.2 | 55.4% | |
WASHINGTON | 51.7 | 27.2 | 35.3 | 62.5 | 52.6 | 55.3 | 30.4 | 39.3 | 69.7 | 55% |
Best of luck with Week 14 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.