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Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the thirteenth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." – Mahatma Gandhi
In all likelihood, you're on the brink of – or starting – your playoffs this week. Everything you have done this season – all your decisions, good and bad; all your draft picks; all your preparation – has led to this small stretch that can make or break your season.
Keeping in mind that this is a hobby and the main reason we take it up is for fun and enjoyment, we still want to win. In my day job as a sub-editor at a national newspaper I'm asked to comb through reams and reams of text to 'massage' the copy, so to speak.
Well, Week 13 is a perfect opportunity for you to 'massage' your line-up. Make it the best set of players it can be – and most importantly of all, go for upside. As I've preached many times in this article before, sheepishness at playoff time (unless you are an overwhelming favourite) is simply not worth it.
The byes are a thing of the past, so you should have a full set of chips to push to the middle of the table as the playoff push begins. Let's check out these Week 13 matchups, shall we?
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Arizona front seven at Philadelphia
Who would have thought the Cardinals would raise their heads above the parapet and put the NFL on notice with a series of stifling defensive performances, combined with a competent Carson Palmer, to get into playoff contention? Philadelphia face a tough task keeping the Arizona defense – a unit that ranks in the top 10 in pressure applied – quiet. The matchup between the quick-hitting Eagles offense and the bend-but-don't-break Cardinals defense will be fascinating to watch. However, the momentum is with Arizona off a big home win. Calais Campbell, John Abraham and others should benefit from defensive coordinator Todd Bowles' aggression.
New Orleans front seven at Seattle
Surely Rob Ryan is going through the Seahawks' first 11 games of tape and realising that this offensive line is porous and can be attacked. The Saints' front four has been a dominant force all season, with Cameron Jordan and Akiem Hicks in particular taking over games at times. Seattle allows pressure on 20.6% of Russell Wilson's dropbacks - keeping contain on the mobile Wilson is another story entirely, of course – but New Orleans averages pressure on 19.2% of quarterback drops. Ride the hot hand here and trust your Saints to deliver in a hostile environment.
Pass Rushing Matchup to Avoid
Cincinnati front four at San Diego
The Chargers offensive line has allowed sacks on only 4.7% of Philip Rivers' dropbacks, a stark contrast to last season's output. The trend doesn't lie: San Diego is the stingiest pass rushing matchup out there, so Cincinnati's vaunted pass rush may struggle to find form this week. The Bengals will be fresh off the bye and average 3.1 sacks per game, but it is difficult to recommend the likes of Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson and co. Avoid if at all possible.
SACK OPPORTUNITY TABLE
LEAGUE | Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop |
AVERAGE | Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs |
2008 NFL Average | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 |
2009 NFL Average | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 |
2010 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 |
2011 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 |
2012 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 |
2013 NFL Average | 13.9% | 2.6 | 5.3 | 38.4 | 13.9% | 2.6 | 5.3 | 38.4 |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 16.2% | 2.6 | 7 | 43.1 | 17.1% | 2.7 | 6.6 | 38.8 |
ATLANTA Falcons | 12.3% | 2 | 4.3 | 34.6 | 14.1% | 2.2 | 6.1 | 43.2 |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 17% | 3.5 | 6.4 | 37.5 | 13.8% | 3.4 | 5.5 | 40.1 |
BUFFALO Bills | 15.3% | 3.3 | 6 | 39.3 | 19% | 2.9 | 7.1 | 37.4 |
CAROLINA Panthers | 14.7% | 3.1 | 5.6 | 38.3 | 12.2% | 2.8 | 4.1 | 33.5 |
CHICAGO Bears | 7.8% | 1.8 | 2.5 | 32.5 | 12.8% | 1.5 | 5 | 39.2 |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 16.6% | 3.1 | 7 | 42.1 | 10.3% | 2.4 | 4.1 | 39.7 |
CLEVELAND Browns | 14% | 2.8 | 5.6 | 40.4 | 18.2% | 3.6 | 8.5 | 47 |
DALLAS Cowboys | 9.4% | 2.4 | 4.1 | 43.7 | 9.9% | 2.4 | 3.9 | 39.5 |
DENVER Broncos | 15.1% | 2.9 | 6.6 | 44 | 7.8% | 1.4 | 3.3 | 42.1 |
DETROIT Lions | 13.7% | 1.8 | 5.5 | 39.7 | 10% | 1.3 | 4.4 | 43.5 |
GREEN BAY Packers | 13.6% | 3.4 | 5 | 36.8 | 12% | 2.3 | 4.6 | 38.7 |
HOUSTON Texans | 23.6% | 2.5 | 7.2 | 30.5 | 16.6% | 2.7 | 7.1 | 42.7 |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 15.3% | 2.6 | 5.3 | 34.5 | 19% | 2.2 | 7.3 | 38.2 |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 11.3% | 1.5 | 4 | 35.5 | 17% | 3.5 | 6.6 | 39.1 |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 13.4% | 3.4 | 5.4 | 40.1 | 14% | 2.9 | 5.5 | 39.1 |
MIAMI Dolphins | 15.1% | 2.9 | 6 | 39.7 | 16.4% | 4 | 6.7 | 41.1 |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 11.3% | 2.2 | 4.8 | 42.5 | 14.7% | 2.6 | 5.4 | 36.5 |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 15.2% | 3.1 | 6.1 | 40.1 | 12.2% | 2.7 | 5.1 | 41.8 |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 19.2% | 3.4 | 6.9 | 36 | 10.6% | 2.2 | 4.5 | 42.1 |
NEW YORK Giants | 12.3% | 1.6 | 4.9 | 39.9 | 13.4% | 2.5 | 5.2 | 38.7 |
NEW YORK Jets | 13.8% | 2.9 | 5.5 | 39.5 | 19.1% | 3.5 | 6.5 | 33.8 |
OAKLAND Raiders | 13.6% | 2.7 | 5.3 | 38.9 | 14.6% | 3.5 | 5 | 34.3 |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 7.3% | 2.2 | 3.4 | 46.2 | 15% | 2.6 | 5.2 | 34.6 |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 12.2% | 2.1 | 4.5 | 36.4 | 11.9% | 3.4 | 4.9 | 41.4 |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 10.6% | 2.5 | 3.9 | 36.7 | 8.6% | 1.8 | 3.4 | 38.9 |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 13.6% | 2.4 | 5.2 | 38.1 | 13.6% | 2.4 | 3.7 | 27.5 |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 17.5% | 3.1 | 6.4 | 36.5 | 20.6% | 2.6 | 5.9 | 28.6 |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 16.2% | 3 | 5.7 | 35.4 | 12.3% | 2.4 | 4.5 | 36.1 |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 14.5% | 2.2 | 5.6 | 39 | 13.7% | 2.5 | 4.9 | 35.8 |
TENNESSEE Titans | 13.4% | 2.4 | 4.6 | 34.7 | 13.3% | 2.5 | 4.7 | 35.5 |
WASHINGTON | 13.7% | 2.5 | 4.9 | 35.7 | 15% | 2.4 | 5.9 | 39.5 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Oakland defenders at Dallas
Doesn't it seem like Dallas always gets a creampuff opponent on Thanksgiving? In what amounts to a homecoming game for the NFC East leading Cowboys, Tony Romo and co should find success against a Raiders defense that averages 52.9 tackle opportunities per game. Raiders head coach Dennis Allen has done admirably with the pieces at his disposal, but this feels like a comfortable Dallas victory. DeMarco Murray was featured more against New York last week and should see a big role here, adding to the appeal of Raiders defenders like Nick Roach, Lamarr Houston and Charles Woodson. Dallas actually ranks a putrid 32nd in tackle opportunities allowed; call this a gut feeling.
Atlanta defenders at Buffalo
The problems for Atlanta start on the front lines; they are unable to protect the passer, shortening drives, and they are unable to pressure the passer or sufficiently stop the run. The trickle down effect is plenty of tackle opportunity for the likes of breakout Paul Worrilow, the returning Sean Weatherspoon and others. The Bills offense has established itself as a reliable tackle matchup this year, ranking third in the league with 55.5 opportunities allowed per game. In the beautiful city of Toronto, expect Buffalo to control both lines of scrimmage and manhandle a spent Falcons team – with plenty of fantasy points to be mined if you own Atlanta defenders.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
New England defenders at Houston
The fall and fall of Gary Kubiak's Texans has been like watching a man falling from a height in slow motion; everyone knows what the outcome will be, but it's agonising to observe nonetheless. No rest this week for Houston with New England coming to town. The Patriots have had to cobble together a defensive front seven after injuries to Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo. Normally this would be a recipe for tackle numbers, but Houston has turned into one of the poorest tackle matchups in the last three weeks, allowing 46, 48 and 41 opportunities. New England ranks third in the league in tackle opportunity, but this Texans offense inspires no confidence – avoid playing your Patriots defenders if you can.
SACK OPPORTUNITY TABLE
LEAGUE | Tackle | Rush Attempt | Drop Backs | Offensive | Run | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Run | |
AVERAGE | Opps | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | % | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | % | |
2008 NFL Average | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | |
2009 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | |
2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | |
2011 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | |
2012 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | |
2013 NFL Average | 51.4 | 26.9 | 38.4 | 65.3 | 52.3% | 51.4 | 26.9 | 38.4 | 65.3 | 52.3% | |
ARIZONA Cardinals | 49.6 | 23.2 | 43.1 | 66.3 | 46.7% | 49.8 | 24.3 | 38.8 | 63.1 | 48.7% | |
ATLANTA Falcons | 52.3 | 28.3 | 34.6 | 62.9 | 54.1% | 48.5 | 18.8 | 43.2 | 62 | 38.8% | |
BALTIMORE Ravens | 50.7 | 27.6 | 37.5 | 65.1 | 54.5% | 53 | 28 | 40.1 | 68.1 | 52.8% | |
BUFFALO Bills | 52.9 | 29.1 | 39.3 | 68.4 | 55% | 55.5 | 33 | 37.4 | 70.4 | 59.5% | |
CAROLINA Panthers | 48.1 | 21.5 | 38.3 | 59.8 | 44.8% | 52.9 | 31.2 | 33.5 | 64.6 | 58.9% | |
CHICAGO Bears | 50.5 | 29.7 | 32.5 | 62.3 | 58.8% | 50.4 | 24.7 | 39.2 | 63.9 | 49.1% | |
CINCINNATI Bengals | 51.2 | 25.6 | 42.1 | 67.7 | 50.1% | 54.4 | 29 | 39.7 | 68.7 | 53.3% | |
CLEVELAND Browns | 53.7 | 28.5 | 40.4 | 68.8 | 53% | 48.7 | 21.3 | 47 | 68.3 | 43.7% | |
DALLAS Cowboys | 55.5 | 26.5 | 43.7 | 70.2 | 47.6% | 46.1 | 19.9 | 39.5 | 59.4 | 43.2% | |
DENVER Broncos | 52.9 | 25.7 | 44 | 69.7 | 48.6% | 60.2 | 30.9 | 42.1 | 73 | 51.4% | |
DETROIT Lions | 48 | 23.1 | 39.7 | 62.8 | 48.1% | 51.8 | 25.6 | 43.5 | 69.2 | 49.5% | |
GREEN BAY Packers | 51 | 26.8 | 36.8 | 63.6 | 52.6% | 55 | 29.1 | 38.7 | 67.8 | 52.9% | |
HOUSTON Texans | 46.8 | 28.1 | 30.5 | 58.5 | 60% | 53.5 | 26.7 | 42.7 | 69.5 | 49.9% | |
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 50.9 | 28.7 | 34.5 | 63.3 | 56.4% | 48 | 24.7 | 38.2 | 62.9 | 51.5% | |
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 54 | 31.1 | 35.5 | 66.5 | 57.6% | 48 | 22.9 | 39.1 | 62 | 47.7% | |
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 49 | 25.2 | 40.1 | 65.3 | 51.4% | 51.4 | 27.1 | 39.1 | 66.2 | 52.7% | |
MIAMI Dolphins | 54.5 | 29.7 | 39.7 | 69.5 | 54.5% | 47.9 | 21 | 41.1 | 62.1 | 43.8% | |
MINNESOTA Vikings | 57.4 | 28.8 | 42.5 | 71.4 | 50.2% | 49.2 | 26 | 36.5 | 62.5 | 52.9% | |
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 54.9 | 31.1 | 40.1 | 71.2 | 56.6% | 55.5 | 29.5 | 41.8 | 71.3 | 53% | |
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 45.8 | 23.3 | 36 | 59.3 | 50.8% | 54.5 | 25.1 | 42.1 | 67.2 | 46% | |
NEW YORK Giants | 50.9 | 26.4 | 39.9 | 66.3 | 51.8% | 47.5 | 24.4 | 38.7 | 63.1 | 51.3% | |
NEW YORK Jets | 50.5 | 25.5 | 39.5 | 65 | 50.5% | 50.2 | 30 | 33.8 | 63.8 | 59.8% | |
OAKLAND Raiders | 52.9 | 26.3 | 38.9 | 65.2 | 49.7% | 50.3 | 28.6 | 34.3 | 62.9 | 57% | |
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 57.7 | 28.6 | 46.2 | 74.8 | 49.6% | 52.5 | 30.7 | 34.6 | 65.4 | 58.6% | |
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 50 | 28.3 | 36.4 | 64.6 | 56.5% | 51.6 | 23.7 | 41.4 | 65.1 | 46% | |
SAN DIEGO Chargers | 49.5 | 23.1 | 36.7 | 59.8 | 46.7% | 55.2 | 27.7 | 38.9 | 66.6 | 50.2% | |
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 49.9 | 26.6 | 38.1 | 64.7 | 53.4% | 48.4 | 31.7 | 27.5 | 59.2 | 65.6% | |
SEATTLE Seahawks | 49.5 | 26.9 | 36.5 | 63.4 | 54.3% | 51.9 | 32.5 | 28.6 | 61.2 | 62.7% | |
ST. LOUIS Rams | 51.9 | 27.2 | 35.4 | 62.5 | 52.4% | 48.3 | 26.4 | 36.1 | 62.5 | 54.6% | |
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 50.4 | 24.8 | 39 | 63.8 | 49.3% | 50.1 | 28.3 | 35.8 | 64.1 | 56.4% | |
TENNESSEE Titans | 50.7 | 28.2 | 34.7 | 62.9 | 55.6% | 50.7 | 27.7 | 35.5 | 63.3 | 54.7% | |
WASHINGTON | 52 | 27.5 | 35.7 | 63.3 | 53 | 54.9 | 30.4 | 39.5 | 69.8 | 55.3% |
Best of luck with Week 13 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
Have a great time at Thanksgiving with your families.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.