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Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the twelfth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don't know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week's games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
"Sometimes it's worth lingering on the journey for a while before getting to the destination." – Richelle Mead, 'The Indigo Spell'
This season has been one to remember so far. Just when you think you've got it pinned down and figured out, it transforms into something else and continues to surprise and elude.
My hope is that to this point the staff here at Footballguys have kept you ahead of the game and that you're in a position to secure a play-off berth in these final few weeks. While you're setting your line-ups for Week 12, take a second to reflect on the work you've put in to get this far – your journey.
It probably started when you were sitting down with a cool beer in summertime with a few early rankings lists on hand. Maybe it was earlier. You've worked hard to get here. Don't forget that.
So before you get to the destination – a shiny championship – take a few minutes to remember the rocky road to where you are now.
Let's see if we can finish this journey in style by dissecting the best and worst of the Week 12 match-ups.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Arizona front seven vs. Indianapolis
A juicy match-up in many ways, but for IDP purposes the cream of this week's slate if you ask me. Arizona's front seven – and entire defense, really – is underrated by some, but they should give Andrew Luck's offense a lot of trouble this week in the desert. The worrying trend for the Colts has been that they've been giving up hits and sacks more often on their quarterback and continue to get behind in games. The Cardinals' pass rush has been humming with nine sacks in the past three games, with veteran John Abraham excelling. I would trust Arizona's pass rush to win the day against an overmatched Indianapolis offensive line.
Baltimore front seven vs. New York Jets
The Jekyll and Hyde Jets have quietly turned into one of the prime pass rushing match-ups in the league. They are giving up pressure on 19.4% of Geno Smith's dropbacks, second only behind Seattle, who surprisingly give up the most pressure per dropback. Baltimore are a desperate team and will be eager to see Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs test their mettle against the Jets' tackles. The Ravens notch 3.5 sacks per game and are one of the better pass-rushing teams in the league; do not hesitate to ride them this week in what could be another Geno Smith self-destruction.
Pass Rushing Matchup to Avoid
Kansas City front seven vs. San Diego
The Chargers are bettered only by the Broncos in terms of pressure allowed, surrendering heat on Philip Rivers on only 8.5% of his dropbacks. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have endured a spell where their pass rush has failed to get off the ground. In fact, Kansas City has recorded only two sacks since Week 7 (this includes a bye week). At Arrowhead, things could certainly begin to turn for the home team against a desperate Chargers outfit, but the trend points to avoiding your Chiefs pass rushers unless you have no better options.
Sack Opportunity Table
| LEAGUE | Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop |
| AVERAGE | Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs |
| 2008 NFL Average | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 |
| 2013 NFL Average | 13.9% | 2.6 | 5.3 | 38.4 | 13.9% | 2.6 | 5.3 | 38.4 |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 15.9% | 2.8 | 6.9 | 43.4 | 17.4% | 2.7 | 6.7 | 38.6 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 12.4% | 2.1 | 4.3 | 34.7 | 13.2% | 1.9 | 5.7 | 43.1 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 17.1% | 3.5 | 6.6 | 38.5 | 13.4% | 3.3 | 5.5 | 41 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 15.3% | 3.3 | 6 | 39.3 | 19% | 2.9 | 7.1 | 37.4 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 14.4% | 3.1 | 5.4 | 37.6 | 12.8% | 2.9 | 4.2 | 32.8 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 7.5% | 1.8 | 2.5 | 33.4 | 13.1% | 1.6 | 5 | 38.3 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 16.6% | 3.1 | 7 | 42.1 | 10.3% | 2.4 | 4.1 | 39.7 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 14.6% | 3.1 | 6 | 41 | 18.3% | 3.5 | 8.4 | 46 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 9.4% | 2.4 | 4.2 | 44.9 | 9.7% | 2.2 | 3.8 | 39.2 |
| DENVER Broncos | 15.8% | 2.9 | 6.8 | 43.1 | 7.3% | 1.3 | 3.1 | 42.5 |
| DETROIT Lions | 13.1% | 1.6 | 5.4 | 41.2 | 10.2% | 1.2 | 4.4 | 43.1 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 13% | 3.1 | 4.8 | 36.9 | 11.9% | 2.3 | 4.4 | 37.1 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 21.8% | 2.3 | 6.5 | 29.8 | 16.8% | 2.8 | 7.3 | 43.4 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 15.3% | 2.6 | 5.2 | 33.9 | 18.9% | 2.3 | 7.2 | 38 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 11% | 1.5 | 3.9 | 35.4 | 15% | 3.4 | 5.9 | 39.3 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 13.7% | 3.6 | 5.5 | 40.1 | 14.4% | 2.9 | 5.6 | 38.9 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 15.9% | 3 | 6.3 | 39.7 | 16.2% | 4.1 | 6.6 | 40.7 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 11.1% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 41.3 | 14.2% | 2.3 | 5.2 | 36.5 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 15.4% | 3.2 | 6.2 | 40.3 | 12.5% | 2.7 | 5.1 | 40.7 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 18.8% | 3.2 | 6.6 | 35.2 | 10.5% | 2.3 | 4.5 | 42.9 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 12.3% | 1.4 | 4.9 | 39.7 | 13.7% | 2.6 | 5.4 | 39.4 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 13.4% | 2.8 | 5.4 | 40.4 | 19.4% | 3.5 | 6.7 | 34.5 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 13.8% | 2.8 | 5.3 | 38.4 | 15.9% | 3.9 | 5.5 | 34.5 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 7.3% | 2.2 | 3.4 | 46.2 | 15% | 2.6 | 5.2 | 34.6 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 11.4% | 1.8 | 3.9 | 34.3 | 12.4% | 3.7 | 5.2 | 42.1 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 10.7% | 2.5 | 3.9 | 36.3 | 8.5% | 1.9 | 3.3 | 38.8 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 12.9% | 2.2 | 5 | 38.8 | 14.1% | 2.4 | 3.9 | 27.6 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 17.5% | 3.1 | 6.4 | 36.5 | 20.6% | 2.6 | 5.9 | 28.6 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 17% | 3.2 | 5.8 | 34.1 | 12.3% | 2.4 | 4.6 | 37.3 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 15.2% | 2.2 | 5.8 | 38.1 | 13% | 2.4 | 4.8 | 36.9 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 14.6% | 2.6 | 5.1 | 35 | 13.5% | 2.5 | 4.7 | 34.7 |
| WASHINGTON | 14.2% | 2.5 | 5.2 | 36.7 | 14.4% | 2.2 | 5.8 | 40.3 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
San Francisco defenders at Washington
Despite their 3-7 record, the Redskins offense has provided some moments of magic this season and ranks highly in both offensive snaps per game and tackle opportunities allowed per game. If this one goes according to script San Francisco should be able to grind out a victory led by Frank Gore and controlled passing, but the Redskins always seem to find a way to mount a comeback. As a result, the Niners defenders represent a solid option this week.
Jacksonville defenders at Houston
It's hard to trust Houston to produce a performance of respectability these days with things seemingly falling apart and a winless run that extends back to Week 2. However, the Jaguars coming to town could be just the ticket. The Texans rank third in the league with 707 offensive snaps and their offense allows 54.8 tackle opportunities per game, in large part due to their balanced approach. Ben Tate should see a hefty workload to wear down the Jaguars, who face 32.1 rushing attempts per game and average 55.3 tackle opportunities per game. As I often say, don't overthink this one.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
New Orleans defenders at Atlanta
My hunch is that Mike Smith and company can't wait to see the end of the 2013 season as the Falcons seem to deteriorate week after week into something that less resembles a football team and more a train wreck. Matt Ryan and the offense have been unable to establish any kind of consistency of late and allow opposing defenses only 47.7 tackle opportunities per game with a paltry 18.5 rushing attempts per game. The Saints should go for the throat in this divisional clash and limit Atlanta's effectiveness on both sides of the ball, so avoiding your New Orleans defenders – except for those in big play heavy scoring leagues – would be advisable.
Tackle Opportunity Table
| LEAGUE | Tackle | Rush Attempt | Drop Backs | Offensive | Run | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Run | |
| AVERAGE | Opps | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | % | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | % | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | |
| 2011 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | |
| 2012 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | |
| 2013 NFL Average | 51.4 | 26.9 | 38.4 | 65.2 | 52.3% | 51.4 | 26.9 | 38.4 | 65.2 | 52.3% | |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 51 | 24 | 43.4 | 67.4 | 47.1% | 48.9 | 23.7 | 38.6 | 62.3 | 48.5% | |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 52.6 | 28.6 | 34.7 | 63.3 | 54.4% | 47.7 | 18.5 | 43.1 | 61.6 | 38.8% | |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 51.7 | 27.6 | 38.5 | 66.1 | 53.4% | 53.1 | 27.7 | 41 | 68.7 | 52.2% | |
| BUFFALO Bills | 52.9 | 29.1 | 39.3 | 68.4 | 55% | 55.5 | 33 | 37.4 | 70.4 | 59.5% | |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 48.1 | 22 | 37.6 | 59.6 | 45.7% | 53.2 | 31.4 | 32.8 | 64.2 | 59% | |
| CHICAGO Bears | 51.5 | 29.8 | 33.4 | 63.2 | 57.9% | 49.1 | 24.6 | 38.3 | 62.9 | 50.1% | |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 51.2 | 25.6 | 42.1 | 67.7 | 50.1% | 54.4 | 29 | 39.7 | 68.7 | 53.3% | |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 53.5 | 27.9 | 41 | 68.9 | 52.1% | 48.8 | 21.8 | 46 | 67.8 | 44.7% | |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 56.3 | 26.1 | 44.9 | 71 | 46.4% | 46 | 19.9 | 39.2 | 59.1 | 43.3% | |
| DENVER Broncos | 51.4 | 25.2 | 43.1 | 68.3 | 49% | 59.3 | 29.2 | 42.5 | 71.7 | 49.2% | |
| DETROIT Lions | 48.6 | 23 | 41.2 | 64.2 | 47.3% | 51.8 | 25.8 | 43.1 | 68.9 | 49.8% | |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 49.1 | 25.2 | 36.9 | 62.1 | 51.3% | 54.1 | 28.6 | 37.1 | 65.7 | 52.9% | |
| HOUSTON Texans | 46 | 28.1 | 29.8 | 57.9 | 61.1% | 54.8 | 27.3 | 43.4 | 70.7 | 49.8% | |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 50.1 | 28.6 | 33.9 | 62.5 | 57.1% | 49.2 | 25.7 | 38 | 63.7 | 52.2% | |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 55.3 | 32.1 | 35.4 | 67.5 | 58% | 47.3 | 22.4 | 39.3 | 61.7 | 47.4% | |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 48.4 | 25 | 40.1 | 65.1 | 51.7% | 51.8 | 28 | 38.9 | 66.9 | 54.1% | |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 55 | 29.8 | 39.7 | 69.5 | 54.2% | 47.9 | 21.4 | 40.7 | 62.1 | 44.7% | |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 56.7 | 28.3 | 41.3 | 69.6 | 49.9% | 47.1 | 24.3 | 36.5 | 60.8 | 51.6% | |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 53.5 | 29.4 | 40.3 | 69.7 | 55% | 54.3 | 29.3 | 40.7 | 70 | 54% | |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 44.7 | 23.4 | 35.2 | 58.6 | 52.3% | 55.1 | 25.1 | 42.9 | 68 | 45.6% | |
| NEW YORK Giants | 51.3 | 27 | 39.7 | 66.7 | 52.6% | 47.4 | 23.8 | 39.4 | 63.2 | 50.2% | |
| NEW YORK Jets | 50.3 | 24.9 | 40.4 | 65.3 | 49.5% | 51.1 | 30.2 | 34.5 | 64.7 | 59.1% | |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 52.1 | 26 | 38.4 | 64.4 | 49.9% | 51.1 | 29.2 | 34.5 | 63.7 | 57.1% | |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 57.7 | 28.6 | 46.2 | 74.8 | 49.6% | 52.5 | 30.7 | 34.6 | 65.4 | 58.6% | |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 50.2 | 29.5 | 34.3 | 63.8 | 58.8% | 51.2 | 22.7 | 42.1 | 64.8 | 44.3% | |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 49.7 | 23.6 | 36.3 | 59.9 | 47.5% | 55.2 | 27.8 | 38.8 | 66.6 | 50.4% | |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 50.1 | 26.6 | 38.8 | 65.4 | 53.1% | 48.2 | 31.6 | 27.6 | 59.2 | 65.6% | |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 49.5 | 26.9 | 36.5 | 63.4 | 54.3% | 51.9 | 32.5 | 28.6 | 61.2 | 62.7% | |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 50.8 | 27.3 | 34.1 | 61.4 | 53.7% | 49 | 26.1 | 37.3 | 63.4 | 53.3% | |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 50.2 | 24.9 | 38.1 | 63 | 49.6% | 50.9 | 28.7 | 36.9 | 65.6 | 56.4% | |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 51.6 | 28.7 | 35 | 63.7 | 55.6% | 49.7 | 27.6 | 34.7 | 62.3 | 55.5% | |
| WASHINGTON | 52.2 | 27 | 36.7 | 63.7 | 51.7 | 55.6 | 30.7 | 40.3 | 71 | 55.2% |
Best of luck with Week 12 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
