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Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the eleventh edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
"Spectacular achievement is always preceded by unspectacular preparation."
- Robert H. Schuller
The mercury in those thermometers is dipping ever so slightly as we enter mid-November and the fantasy season reaches its climax.
If you've reached this point and you are relevant in the play-off picture, my hat is off to you; but plaudits at this stage mean nothing. Let's go for the jugular and hope, as the great Mr. Schuller said, that all your preparation since last summer (and likely before) will pay off with a glistening championship.
(Side note: if your league doesn't have a physical league trophy, it's well worth investing in one; it adds a little element of fun to proceedings).
Week 11 throws up its fair share of tantalising matchups for us to pick apart, so let's sink our teeth into the best and worst in the IDP landscape.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
New York Jets front seven at Buffalo
A rusty E.J. Manuel looked all at sea in Pittsburgh last week and his skittish play contributed to what has become a go-to matchup for pass rushers this season. Buffalo allows pressure on 19.4% of its quarterbacks' dropbacks, along with 3.1 sacks per game and 7.4 hits per game. That's not pretty reading for head coach Doug Marrone, who welcomes division rival New York coming off a bye.
After their thumping of the New Orleans Saints in MetLife Stadium two weeks ago, the Jets' front seven will be the straw that stirs the drink in this clash. Although this defense's main strength is their run defense, there will be ample pass rush opportunities. The Bills will attempt to keep Manuel's pass attempts down with a steady dose of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, but no team has been able to shove the football down the Jets' throats that way – and the safe bet is the game script will turn sour for Buffalo, allowing the Jets' pass rushers to flourish.
Houston front seven vs. Oakland
The knee injury to Terrelle Pryor seems to be a major concern for the Oakland coaching staff – and the second-year passer did not appear comfortable in or outside the pocket last week. Houston leads the league in pressure per dropback percentage at 22%, so this is an opportunity for the likes of J.J. Watt (who was simply outstanding last week in Arizona) and Antonio Johnson to reap the rewards. The Raiders offense is surrendering 4.1 sacks per game, supporting the fact they lead the league in sack allowed percentage. Take advantage of this tasty matchup if you can.
Pass Rushing Matchup to Avoid
San Francisco front seven at New Orleans
Coming off a home loss to the physical Panthers will leave a bitter taste in the mouths of San Francisco players – but they have a chance to redeem themselves this week in the Superdome. If the Niners can keep this one close to the vest and keep Drew Brees warming the bench, they have a chance to let their pass rush loose. Aldon Smith returned last week in a limited role and looked decent, but clearly needs more reps. The smart play here is to sit your Niners defenders, however, with the Saints one of the stingiest offensive lines in the league (allowing 10.9% pressure per dropback).
Sack Opportunity Table
| LEAGUE | Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop |
| AVERAGE | Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs |
| 2008 NFL Average | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 |
| 2013 NFL Average | 14.1% | 2.7 | 5.4 | 38.4 | 14.1% | 2.7 | 5.4 | 38.4 |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 16.7% | 2.9 | 7.2 | 43.3 | 17.6% | 2.7 | 6.7 | 37.9 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 12.8% | 2.1 | 4.6 | 35.6 | 12.7% | 1.8 | 5.4 | 42.8 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 17.9% | 3.7 | 7 | 39.1 | 13.8% | 3.3 | 5.8 | 41.8 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 14.5% | 3.2 | 5.8 | 39.9 | 19.4% | 3.1 | 7.4 | 38.2 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 14.4% | 3.2 | 5.3 | 37.1 | 13.1% | 2.9 | 4.3 | 33 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 7.3% | 1.7 | 2.4 | 33.3 | 13.4% | 1.6 | 5.2 | 38.9 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 16.9% | 3 | 6.8 | 40.3 | 10.8% | 2.6 | 4.4 | 40.9 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 15.4% | 3.4 | 6.6 | 42.4 | 18.8% | 3.4 | 8.3 | 44.4 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 9.4% | 2.4 | 4.2 | 44.9 | 9.7% | 2.2 | 3.8 | 39.2 |
| DENVER Broncos | 16.4% | 2.9 | 7 | 42.6 | 8.1% | 1.4 | 3.4 | 42.8 |
| DETROIT Lions | 14.5% | 1.7 | 5.9 | 40.7 | 10.2% | 1.1 | 4.3 | 42.6 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 12.7% | 3 | 4.7 | 36.7 | 11.6% | 2.6 | 4.3 | 37.4 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 22% | 2.3 | 6.4 | 29.3 | 17.2% | 2.9 | 7.3 | 42.6 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 15.2% | 2.7 | 5.2 | 34.3 | 19.8% | 2.4 | 7.6 | 38.1 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 10.4% | 1.3 | 3.6 | 34.3 | 15.8% | 3.6 | 6.1 | 38.8 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 15.2% | 4 | 6.1 | 40.1 | 15% | 2.9 | 5.7 | 37.9 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 15.8% | 3 | 6.3 | 40 | 16.8% | 4.1 | 6.9 | 40.9 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 10.7% | 2.3 | 4.7 | 43.4 | 14.6% | 2.3 | 5.3 | 36.4 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 15.9% | 3.2 | 6.6 | 41.3 | 12.3% | 2.8 | 5 | 40.6 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 18.9% | 3.2 | 6.7 | 35.3 | 10.9% | 2.4 | 4.7 | 42.8 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 12.1% | 1.6 | 4.9 | 40.3 | 13.5% | 2.4 | 5.3 | 39.4 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 13.3% | 3 | 5.6 | 41.7 | 18.9% | 3.4 | 6.6 | 34.7 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 13.8% | 2.9 | 5.1 | 37 | 15.4% | 4.1 | 5.3 | 34.6 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 7% | 2 | 3.3 | 46.9 | 15.1% | 2.6 | 5.3 | 35.2 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 11.5% | 1.8 | 3.8 | 32.8 | 13.6% | 4 | 5.7 | 41.7 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 10.8% | 2.3 | 3.9 | 36 | 7.7% | 1.8 | 3 | 39 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 13.7% | 2.3 | 5.2 | 38.2 | 13.6% | 2.3 | 3.7 | 26.9 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 18.1% | 3.2 | 6.6 | 36.4 | 20.8% | 2.8 | 6.1 | 29.3 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 17% | 3.2 | 5.8 | 34.1 | 12.3% | 2.4 | 4.6 | 37.3 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 14.9% | 2.1 | 5.6 | 37.2 | 13.5% | 2.4 | 5.1 | 38 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 15% | 2.8 | 5.2 | 34.8 | 13.2% | 2.6 | 4.7 | 35.2 |
| WASHINGTON | 14.2% | 2.4 | 5.3 | 37.6 | 14.8% | 2 | 6 | 40.4 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Kansas City defenders at Denver
The game where the rubber meets the road for the Chiefs, many would say. This is the first true test of this defense and I will be intrigued to see how they stack up against a loaded Denver offense, albeit with a somewhat hobbled Peyton Manning. While the Chiefs can slow down the Denver offense, it will be a tough task to stop it in its tracks. Manning's offense allows 59.2 tackle opportunities per game and the best option here is to trust that trend will continue despite the Chiefs ranking among the lowest tackle opportunity teams in the league. The Bills showed the Chiefs could be run on, and Denver may have their way here easier than most think.
Minnesota defenders at Seattle
The Vikings lead the league in tackle opportunities – so why not go back to the well in this potentially one-sided matchup in Seattle? Minnesota's inability to get off the field on third down has plagued them all season. The fightback against Washington was eye-opening and one I did not see coming, but can they sustain that for an entire game? Breakout safety Andrew Sendejo should be picked up by all owners if he hasn't been already; he could reproduce his gaudy 16-tackle performance of last week against a Seahawks team that runs the football on 65.7% of its offensive snaps at home. Don't overthink this: load up on your Vikings this week.
Tackle Matchup to Avoid
New York Giants defenders vs. Green Bay
Scott Tolzien was reportedly in line to start for Green Bay against the Giants at the time of writing, but Matt Flynn may have something to say about that. Regardless of who takes the reins for the Pack, things are slipping away for this offense. Injuries have really taken their toll and even with good quarterback play, where is the reliability factor in this offense? Eddie Lacy could keep things under control and help the Pack to an upset, but it is hard to trust them right now. As a result, the Giants (an average tackle opportunity team at 52.1 per game) defenders are not very attractive options in a week where fantasy production is available in many other places.
Tackle Opportunity Table
| LEAGUE | Tackle | Rush Attempt | Drop Backs | Offensive | Run | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Run | |
| AVERAGE | Opps | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | % | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | % | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | |
| 2011 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | |
| 2012 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | |
| 2013 NFL Average | 51.4 | 26.9 | 38.4 | 65.3 | 52.2% | 51.4 | 26.9 | 38.4 | 65.3 | 52.2% | |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 51.7 | 24.9 | 43.3 | 68.2 | 48.2% | 48 | 23.7 | 37.9 | 61.6 | 49.3% | |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 51.8 | 27.6 | 35.6 | 63.1 | 53.2% | 47.8 | 18.3 | 42.8 | 61.1 | 38.4% | |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 52.2 | 27.8 | 39.1 | 66.9 | 53.2% | 52.2 | 26.2 | 41.8 | 68 | 50.2% | |
| BUFFALO Bills | 54.3 | 29.7 | 39.9 | 69.6 | 54.7% | 55.1 | 32.5 | 38.2 | 70.7 | 59% | |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 47.2 | 21.7 | 37.1 | 58.8 | 45.9% | 54.1 | 32.3 | 33 | 65.3 | 59.8% | |
| CHICAGO Bears | 50.4 | 28.6 | 33.3 | 61.9 | 56.6% | 49.3 | 24.4 | 38.9 | 63.3 | 49.5% | |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 51.3 | 26.3 | 40.3 | 66.6 | 51.3% | 55.3 | 28.8 | 40.9 | 69.7 | 52.1% | |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 54.4 | 27.6 | 42.4 | 70 | 50.6% | 48.7 | 22.1 | 44.4 | 66.6 | 45.4% | |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 56.3 | 26.1 | 44.9 | 71 | 46.4% | 46 | 19.9 | 39.2 | 59.1 | 43.3% | |
| DENVER Broncos | 51.7 | 25.2 | 42.6 | 67.8 | 48.8% | 59.2 | 28.4 | 42.8 | 71.2 | 48% | |
| DETROIT Lions | 47.7 | 22.6 | 40.7 | 63.2 | 47.3% | 52.4 | 25.9 | 42.6 | 68.4 | 49.4% | |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 48.7 | 25.3 | 36.7 | 62 | 52.1% | 55.2 | 29.6 | 37.4 | 67 | 53.5% | |
| HOUSTON Texans | 45.4 | 27.8 | 29.3 | 57.1 | 61.1% | 55.6 | 28 | 42.6 | 70.6 | 50.4% | |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 50.3 | 29.1 | 34.3 | 63.4 | 57.8% | 48.4 | 25 | 38.1 | 63.1 | 51.6% | |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 55.1 | 33 | 34.3 | 67.3 | 59.9% | 47.6 | 23.1 | 38.8 | 61.9 | 48.6% | |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 47.1 | 23.8 | 40.1 | 63.9 | 50.5% | 52.1 | 28.3 | 37.9 | 66.2 | 54.4% | |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 55.4 | 30.2 | 40 | 70.2 | 54.5% | 48.2 | 21.7 | 40.9 | 62.6 | 44.9% | |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 58.2 | 28.3 | 43.4 | 71.8 | 48.7% | 46.4 | 23.3 | 36.4 | 59.8 | 50.2% | |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 54.4 | 30.1 | 41.3 | 71.4 | 55.3% | 54.1 | 29.8 | 40.6 | 70.3 | 55% | |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 45 | 23.6 | 35.3 | 58.9 | 52.3% | 55.2 | 25.3 | 42.8 | 68.1 | 45.9% | |
| NEW YORK Giants | 52.1 | 27.8 | 40.3 | 68.1 | 53.3% | 46.8 | 23.8 | 39.4 | 63.2 | 50.8% | |
| NEW YORK Jets | 49.3 | 23.4 | 41.7 | 65.1 | 47.5% | 52.4 | 31 | 34.7 | 65.7 | 59.1% | |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 52.6 | 26.6 | 37 | 63.6 | 50.5% | 51.1 | 29 | 34.6 | 63.6 | 56.7% | |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 57.6 | 27.7 | 46.9 | 74.6 | 48.1% | 52.4 | 30.5 | 35.2 | 65.7 | 58.2% | |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 50.7 | 30 | 32.8 | 62.8 | 59.2% | 50.6 | 22.2 | 41.7 | 63.9 | 44% | |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 50.2 | 24.1 | 36 | 60.1 | 48% | 55.7 | 28 | 39 | 67 | 50.3% | |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 49.7 | 27 | 38.2 | 65.2 | 54.4% | 48.9 | 32.7 | 26.9 | 59.6 | 66.8% | |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 49.2 | 26.3 | 36.4 | 62.7 | 53.5% | 52.8 | 33 | 29.3 | 62.3 | 62.5% | |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 50.8 | 27.3 | 34.1 | 61.4 | 53.7% | 49 | 26.1 | 37.3 | 63.4 | 53.3% | |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 50.6 | 25.4 | 37.2 | 62.7 | 50.3% | 49.9 | 27.7 | 38 | 65.7 | 55.5% | |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 51.1 | 28.3 | 34.8 | 63.1 | 55.4% | 49.9 | 28 | 35.2 | 63.2 | 56.1% | |
| WASHINGTON | 52.1 | 26.3 | 37.6 | 63.9 | 50.5 | 55.2 | 29.9 | 40.4 | 70.3 | 54.1% |
Best of luck with Week 11 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
