Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of “good” and “bad” matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the tenth edition of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
"You think you know, but you don’t know and you never will."
– Jim Mora
Last week threw us for a loop, didn't it? A slate of games everyone expected to zig, zagged, leaving fantasy owners either jumping for joy or throwing the remote at the television, only to see it fall harmlessly to the turf in front of your dog's snout.
There is no doubt that this year's NFL is one of the hardest to predict in years, but I take solace in the numbers and the film, both of which never lie. Yes, there are hiccups along the way, but if you've come this far in the season and you're still in the hunt, you've done well.
Now comes the fun part – the play-off push. The bye weeks are dwindling and our line-ups are returning to full strength – as long as you've been able to stay injury-free – but alas, those matchups are as important as ever.
So, with Jim Mora's wise words echoing in our minds, let's go through these Week 10 matchups with a fine tooth comb.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Tampa Bay front four vs. Miami
Normally I wouldn't be recommending a winless team's pass rushers to rise to the occasion, but the Miami matchup has treated IDP owners well this season. The Dolphins offensive line is in a mess right now, with the loss of Richie Incognito to suspension and Jonathan Martin to a leave of absence decimating their depth. Not to mention they've allowed 4.4 sacks per game and cannot seem to run the football with any semblance of consistency.
The Buccaneers almost pulled out a shock victory in Seattle, with the play of Mike Glennon giving the defense a chance to compete with the game close. One thing Greg Schiano's team can hang their hat on is their run defense, which has been solid behind the play of Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy in particular. Adrian Clayborn and the aforementioned pairing have that extra upside this week in a matchup that Tampa Bay could control – and possibly even win.
Houston front seven at Arizona
On Sunday night we saw some of the old Texans spirit on display, with the defense setting the tone early on. Hits and hurries on Andrew Luck didn't faze the young passer, but veteran Carson Palmer may struggle behind an offensive line in Arizona that has its fair share of holes and has allowed 21 sacks this season, along with 34 hits and 86 hurries.
Houston leads the league in pass rushing prowess, applying pressure on 21.6% of opponent dropbacks. With Palmer's average number of dropbacks for the season at 38.5, expect Wade Phillips – subbing for Gary Kubiak – to let his defense loose. JJ Watt, even if the statistics do not show it, has been a monster this season, and he should be licking his chops for this one. Antonio Smith and Whitney Mercilus should also be factors in a very appealing matchup in the desert.
Pass Rushing Matchup to Avoid
Denver front seven at San Diego
Fresh off the bye, Denver will be champing at the bit to make a statement against their division rivals, but that may have to come via the offense. San Diego has been the stingiest pass rushing matchups in the league, allowing pressure on only 6.9% of Philip Rivers' dropbacks. The design of the offense is the reason for this, as Rivers is rarely exposed by seven-step drops and generally releases the ball quickly. Denver could force the issue if they establish a sizeable lead, but the smart play here is to eschew Denver pass rushers if you can.
Sack Opportunity Table
| LEAGUE | Pressure | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop |
| AVERAGE | Applied | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Allowed | Backs |
| 2008 NFL Average | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 | 11.3% | 2.1 | 4 | 35.4 |
| 2009 NFL Average | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 | 12% | 2 | 4.1 | 34.3 |
| 2010 NFL Average | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 | 13.3% | 2.2 | 4.7 | 35.4 |
| 2011 NFL Average | 12.7% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 | 12.8% | 2.2 | 4.6 | 35.9 |
| 2012 NFL Average | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 | 13.1% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.3 |
| 2013 NFL Average | 14.1% | 2.7 | 5.4 | 38.6 | 14.1% | 2.7 | 5.4 | 38.6 |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 16% | 2.9 | 6.9 | 43 | 16.9% | 2.9 | 6.5 | 38.5 |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 13% | 2.3 | 4.8 | 36.6 | 13% | 1.8 | 5.6 | 43.4 |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 18.2% | 3.5 | 6.8 | 37 | 13.7% | 3.1 | 5.8 | 41.9 |
| BUFFALO Bills | 14.8% | 3.1 | 6 | 40.6 | 20.9% | 3.1 | 7.9 | 37.8 |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 13.4% | 2.9 | 5.1 | 38.3 | 12.6% | 2.8 | 4.1 | 32.6 |
| CHICAGO Bears | 8.3% | 1.9 | 2.8 | 33.1 | 12% | 1.5 | 4.5 | 37.4 |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 17.1% | 2.8 | 6.9 | 40.2 | 9.9% | 2.3 | 3.9 | 39.2 |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 15.4% | 3.4 | 6.6 | 42.4 | 18.8% | 3.4 | 8.3 | 44.4 |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 9.6% | 2.6 | 4.3 | 45.2 | 9.3% | 2.1 | 3.8 | 40.6 |
| DENVER Broncos | 16.6% | 2.8 | 7.3 | 43.8 | 7.5% | 1.4 | 3.3 | 43.4 |
| DETROIT Lions | 13.3% | 1.6 | 5.3 | 39.4 | 11.2% | 1.3 | 4.9 | 43.5 |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 12.6% | 3 | 4.9 | 38.6 | 13% | 2.8 | 4.8 | 36.5 |
| HOUSTON Texans | 21.6% | 2.5 | 6.3 | 28.9 | 16.6% | 2.9 | 7 | 42.1 |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 15.5% | 2.8 | 5.6 | 36.4 | 21.2% | 2.4 | 7.6 | 36 |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 10.9% | 1.4 | 3.6 | 33.3 | 15.2% | 3.6 | 6.1 | 40.4 |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 15.2% | 4 | 6.1 | 40.1 | 15% | 2.9 | 5.7 | 37.9 |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 15.7% | 3.1 | 6.6 | 42.1 | 16.7% | 4.4 | 6.8 | 40.5 |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 9.7% | 2.1 | 4.3 | 43.8 | 15% | 2.5 | 5.6 | 37.5 |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 15.9% | 3.2 | 6.6 | 41.3 | 12.3% | 2.8 | 5 | 40.6 |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 19.2% | 3.3 | 7 | 36.4 | 11.4% | 2.6 | 4.9 | 42.9 |
| NEW YORK Giants | 12% | 1.3 | 5 | 41.6 | 12.7% | 2.4 | 5.3 | 41.3 |
| NEW YORK Jets | 13.3% | 3 | 5.6 | 41.7 | 18.9% | 3.4 | 6.6 | 34.7 |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 13% | 2.9 | 5 | 38.5 | 15.7% | 4.1 | 5.5 | 35.1 |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 7.5% | 2.1 | 3.6 | 47.1 | 15.1% | 2.6 | 5.6 | 36.8 |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 12.3% | 1.6 | 3.9 | 31.6 | 13.8% | 4 | 5.9 | 42.6 |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 10.5% | 2.4 | 3.8 | 35.8 | 6.9% | 1.5 | 2.8 | 39.8 |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 13.3% | 2.1 | 5.1 | 38.5 | 12.1% | 1.9 | 3.3 | 26.8 |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 19% | 3.3 | 6.9 | 36.2 | 21.8% | 3 | 6.4 | 29.6 |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 17.8% | 3.2 | 5.7 | 31.8 | 12.4% | 2.4 | 4.9 | 39.4 |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 14.4% | 2.1 | 5.3 | 36.4 | 13.2% | 2.5 | 5.3 | 39.9 |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 14.3% | 2.8 | 5.1 | 35.9 | 14.2% | 2.8 | 4.9 | 34.3 |
| WASHINGTON | 14.5% | 2.6 | 5.6 | 38.8 | 14.2% | 1.8 | 5.8 | 40.4 |
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Minnesota defenders vs. Washington
The league leaders in tackle opportunity, Minnesota have been a veritable bounty of fantasy points this year. This Thursday night matchup may be littered with the usual amount of subpar play and mistakes that has become custom for the short week, which may play into the hands of Washington's offense. Robert Griffin III III's unit has shown signs of life the past few weeks and has averaged 54.1 tackle opportunities allowed per game.
Expect the likes of Chad Greenway, Erin Henderson, Josh Robinson and Andrew Sendejo (if you are desperate) to rack up the points in a favourable matchup that could get your Week 10 off to a flying start.
Dallas defenders at New Orleans
Looking to rebound from the mauling in New York, Drew Brees and company should show no mercy to a Cowboys defense that has given up yards through the air for fun. The irrepressible Sean Lee will have his hands full with Jimmy Graham to deal with over the middle, but Lee should be able to add to his gaudy tackle numbers. Unexpected breakout safety Barry Church and the rest of the defensive back corps also represent strong options against a Saints offense that allows 53 tackle opportunities per game. Don't overthink this one.
Tackle Matchup to Avoid
Seattle defenders at Atlanta
The Falcons have had a fork stuck in them and they seem to have lost their way on both sides of the football. Seattle is not without its own problems, but Pete Carroll's should be able to dispatch Atlanta in the Georgia Dome. Atlanta allows only 48.6 tackle opportunities per game and averages only 18.6 rush attempts per game, not a good formula for IDP success. In a game Seattle should control, my advice is to keep your Seahawks out of your line-up if possible.
Tackle Opportunity Table
| LEAGUE | Tackle | Rush Atts | Drop Backs | Offensive | Run | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Run | |
| AVERAGE | Opp | Faced | Faced | Snaps Faced | % | Allowed | Atts | Backs | Snaps | % | |
| 2008 NFL Average | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | 49.8 | 27.3 | 35.4 | 62.7 | 43.5% | |
| 2009 NFL Average | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | 49.3 | 27.6 | 34.3 | 61.9 | 44.6% | |
| 2010 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | 49.9 | 27.4 | 33.3 | 62.9 | 43.6% | |
| 2011 NFL Average | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | 49.9 | 27.2 | 35.9 | 63.1 | 43.1% | |
| 2012 NFL Average | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | 50 | 27.3 | 36.3 | 63.6 | 54.5% | |
| 2013 NFL Average | 51.5 | 26.7 | 38.6 | 65.4 | 51.9% | 51.5 | 26.7 | 38.6 | 65.4 | 51.9% | |
| ARIZONA Cardinals | 52.4 | 25.4 | 43 | 68.4 | 48.4% | 47.8 | 23 | 38.5 | 61.5 | 48.2% | |
| ATLANTA Falcons | 50.5 | 25.8 | 36.6 | 62.4 | 51% | 48.6 | 18.6 | 43.4 | 62 | 38.3% | |
| BALTIMORE Ravens | 51.3 | 27.4 | 37 | 64.4 | 53.4% | 51.9 | 25.8 | 41.9 | 67.6 | 49.6% | |
| BUFFALO Bills | 54.2 | 29.3 | 40.6 | 69.9 | 54.1% | 56 | 33.7 | 37.8 | 71.4 | 60.1% | |
| CAROLINA Panthers | 48 | 21.4 | 38.3 | 59.6 | 44.5% | 54.6 | 32.6 | 32.6 | 65.3 | 59.7% | |
| CHICAGO Bears | 51.3 | 28.9 | 33.1 | 62 | 56.3% | 49.4 | 25 | 37.4 | 62.4 | 50.6% | |
| CINCINNATI Bengals | 50.9 | 25.9 | 40.2 | 66.1 | 50.9% | 54.8 | 28.6 | 39.2 | 67.8 | 52.1% | |
| CLEVELAND Browns | 54.4 | 27.6 | 42.4 | 70 | 50.6% | 48.7 | 22.1 | 44.4 | 66.6 | 45.4% | |
| DALLAS Cowboys | 54.4 | 24.8 | 45.2 | 70 | 45.5% | 47.9 | 20.3 | 40.6 | 60.9 | 42.5% | |
| DENVER Broncos | 50.9 | 24 | 43.8 | 67.8 | 47.2% | 60.5 | 29.3 | 43.4 | 72.6 | 48.3% | |
| DETROIT Lions | 47.5 | 22.9 | 39.4 | 62.3 | 48.2% | 53.5 | 25.9 | 43.5 | 69.4 | 48.4% | |
| GREEN BAY Packers | 48.3 | 23.9 | 38.6 | 62.5 | 49.5% | 54.6 | 29.5 | 36.5 | 66 | 54% | |
| HOUSTON Texans | 44.9 | 27.6 | 28.9 | 56.5 | 61.6% | 56.8 | 28.9 | 42.1 | 71 | 50.9% | |
| INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 50.6 | 28.1 | 36.4 | 64.5 | 55.6% | 48.5 | 26.4 | 36 | 62.4 | 54.4% | |
| JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 55.3 | 33.8 | 33.3 | 67 | 61.1% | 47.6 | 22.3 | 40.4 | 62.6 | 46.7% | |
| KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 47.1 | 23.8 | 40.1 | 63.9 | 50.5% | 52.1 | 28.3 | 37.9 | 66.2 | 54.4% | |
| MIAMI Dolphins | 56.1 | 29.4 | 42.1 | 71.5 | 52.3% | 48.9 | 22.6 | 40.5 | 63.1 | 46.3% | |
| MINNESOTA Vikings | 57.5 | 27.4 | 43.8 | 71.1 | 47.6% | 46.5 | 23.3 | 37.5 | 60.8 | 50% | |
| NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 54.4 | 30.1 | 41.3 | 71.4 | 55.3% | 54.1 | 29.8 | 40.6 | 70.3 | 55% | |
| NEW ORLEANS Saints | 47 | 24.5 | 36.4 | 60.9 | 52.1% | 53 | 23.8 | 42.9 | 66.6 | 44.8% | |
| NEW YORK Giants | 53.6 | 28.1 | 41.6 | 69.8 | 52.4% | 46 | 22 | 41.3 | 63.3 | 47.8% | |
| NEW YORK Jets | 49.3 | 23.4 | 41.7 | 65.1 | 47.5% | 52.4 | 31 | 34.7 | 65.7 | 59.1% | |
| OAKLAND Raiders | 52.5 | 25.1 | 38.5 | 63.6 | 47.9% | 52.5 | 29.5 | 35.1 | 64.6 | 56.2% | |
| PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 57.3 | 27.4 | 47.1 | 74.6 | 47.9% | 52.4 | 29.8 | 36.8 | 66.6 | 56.8% | |
| PITTSBURGH Steelers | 51.1 | 31 | 31.6 | 62.6 | 60.6% | 50 | 20.9 | 42.6 | 63.5 | 41.8% | |
| SAN DIEGO Chargers | 50.4 | 24.4 | 35.8 | 60.1 | 48.4% | 55.4 | 27.1 | 39.8 | 66.9 | 49% | |
| SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 49.6 | 26.6 | 38.5 | 65.1 | 53.7% | 49.9 | 33.8 | 26.8 | 60.5 | 67.7% | |
| SEATTLE Seahawks | 50.1 | 27.4 | 36.2 | 63.7 | 54.8% | 51.8 | 32 | 29.6 | 61.6 | 61.8% | |
| ST. LOUIS Rams | 51.1 | 28.8 | 31.8 | 60.6 | 56.3% | 49.1 | 24.9 | 39.4 | 64.3 | 50.7% | |
| TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 51.5 | 26.9 | 36.4 | 63.3 | 52.2% | 49.9 | 26.5 | 39.9 | 66.4 | 53.1% | |
| TENNESSEE Titans | 51.6 | 28.1 | 35.9 | 64 | 54.5% | 49.4 | 28.1 | 34.3 | 62.4 | 57% | |
| WASHINGTON | 52.9 | 26.6 | 38.8 | 65.4 | 50.4 | 54.1 | 29.1 | 40.4 | 69.5 | 53.8% |
Best of luck with Week 10 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
