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Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of good and bad matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
You are very welcome to the first of what will be a season-long look at the best and worst matchups in the IDP landscape based on detailed, accurate spreadsheet data generated by Larry Thomas on a weekly basis.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much. Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to improve my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Each and every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
Week 1 presents a challenge in that we are operating with a blank slate. If the 2013 NFL season was a puzzle, we would have only the corner pieces. At the best of times, fantasy owners make educated guesses about who to start and who to bench, but the theme of this week’s article is go with your gut.
If you watched the preseason, there were definitely some valuable tidbits to stash away in your memory banks, but realise that the reality could change in an instant. Teams try new things in preseason. Coaches, like artists seeking that perfect portrait, are tinkerers by nature.
So, without further ado, let’s see where our gut takes us in Week 1.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
Cincinnati front four at Chicago
Freshly-minted $55m defensive tackle Geno Atkins will be licking his chops to get a shot at this revamped Bears offensive line. There has been some buzz in the preseason that the Bears may have finally turned a corner with their big boys up front, but the verdict is still out. Atkins, Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap will pose problems; defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is not afraid to let the dogs loose, so to speak. This is a tantalising matchup that should be capitalised on.
San Francisco front seven vs. Green Bay
Poor David Bakhtiari… starting at left tackle for any team is one of the most difficult tasks in the game, but protecting Aaron Rodgers’ blind side brings with it a whole other level of pressure. Lining up against Aldon Smith for 60 minutes will not make things any easier. The Niners front seven could have a fruitful outing if Green Bay’s piecemeal offensive line begins to creak. Mike McCarthy would be wise to employ a more balanced attack with Eddie Lacy getting fed often, but that all depends on the game script going to plan. Justin Smith, Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks all have interesting upside.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Atlanta front seven at New Orleans
In one of the highlight matchups of the opening stanza of the new season, the Falcons bid to knock off the Saints in the Superdome. Atlanta was among the worst defensive fronts in the league last season for generating pressure. Osi Umenyiora has been added in an attempt to reverse their fortunes in the pass-rush department, but Drew Brees’ quick release and the Saints’ solid protection should leave the Falcons’ front four toothless. Avoid at all costs.
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Jacksonville defenders vs. Kansas City
The Jaguars led the league in tackle opportunities last season with a grand total of 861, and there are few reasons to think that trend is close to changing. Andy Reid and the new regime in Kansas City will lean heavily on the fleet of foot Jamaal Charles and this solid offensive line to wear down the home team, with quarterback Alex Smith taking controlled shots downfield. If the game script unfolds as expected, Jaguars linebacker tandem Russell Allen and Paul Posluszny should profit in the tackle column; facing 30+ rushing attempts is not out of the question. Rookie strong safety Jonathan Cyprien could also feature prominently in the box score.
Buffalo defenders vs. New England
New England has consistently ranked in the top-10 in all major offensive statistical categories that translate to IDP production. If, as predicted, Bill Belichick adheres to an up-tempo approach against an underrated Buffalo front seven, the Bills defense could be on the field for 70-75 snaps. Rookie linebacker Kiko Alonso intrigues me in this aggressive, Mike Pettine-coached defense that will not be afraid to attack Tom Brady in the pocket. With Stephon Gilmore out of the lineup due to a wrist injury, Leodis McKelvin and Justin Rogers will have to pick up the slack. Both cornerbacks have CB3 or better upside in this matchup. Jairus Byrd, normally a shoo-in to get the nod in a juicy matchup like this, is dealing with pain associated with plantar fasciitis. Keep an eye on his status, but if he gets the nod, plug him in without hesitation.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Indianapolis defenders vs. Oakland
Well, well, well. Dennis Allen has pulled a rabbit out of the hat by naming Terrelle Pryor the starting quarterback for the Raiders’ opener. Perhaps it is not a complete surprise, but it certainly gives the Colts defense something to think about. While Pryor’s athleticism may add a new dimension to Oakland’s offense, his inexperience will tell in crucial situations and the Raiders will likely struggle to sustain drives. As a result, expectations for the likes of linebacker Jerrell Freeman and safety pair Antoine Bethea and LaRon Landry should be tempered.
Tampa Bay defenders at NY Jets
The Bucs ranked 12th in the league in tackle opportunity last season and face the much-maligned Jets offense in the opener. In what I anticipate will be a fairly cagey, low-scoring affair, your best bet is to avoid playing any Bucs defenders unless you have to. Upper echelon performers like Lavonte David, a revelation last season, could surprise, but do you really want to put faith in Mark Sanchez to move the football on a consistent basis when it matters? I would like to go on record by predicting that Sanchez will throw a pick to former teammate Darrelle Revis; just a hunch, readers.
Best of luck with Week 1 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.
