As usual week one was loaded with both good and bad surprises, confirmations, and the normal share of major head scratchers. It is just good to finally have something real to work with. It is too early to identify matchup trends so the first couple of weeks will be devoted mostly to improving our rosters. This is a crucial time for grabbing those unexpected potential stars who slipped through the cracks despite all our studies and preparation. An aggressive owner can really help them self with a few tactical pickups.
The other issue that comes into play is determining what to do with those high expectation guys that flat lined in week one. There is no worse feeling than giving up on a guy too quickly then having him turn out to be the stud you expected to begin with. This is certainly not an exact science, but I will tell you what I saw in week one and what I believe it means. Hopefully the wisdom of my 20+ years of IDP experience will prove useful.
Arizona Cardinals
It was not completely unexpected that Tyrann Mathieu filled the nickel corner role against the Rams in week on. For many of us it was not even a big surprise that he finished the game with 7 solo tackles and a forced fumble. What is both surprising and impressive is that he did it on just 42 total snaps. I am both optimistic and somewhat nervous about putting Mathieu in my lineup each week knowing that he is going to be on the field only about 60% of the time. At this point I would have to consider him a risky every week play with upside or a matchup based spot starter. The NFL has give us some rather productive slot corners in the past but consistency tends to be an issue.
Jasper Brinkley had a strong 8 tackle performance in the opener. With Karlos Dansby playing on a one year deal, Brinkley could be on his way to a long term starting job with the team. That said, it will still be a shock if he is not benched in week five when Daryl Washington returns. Dansby also piled up 8 solo stops and added a fumble recovery. There is at least some possibility that he will go to the pines instead of Brinkley but the chances of that seem slim.
An interesting note from the week one contest that was played in St. Louis; no Cardinals defender was credited with an assist in the game. In contrast, Colts defenders were credited with 35. It would sure be nice if the NFL would give us a little scoring consistency but for now we just need to be aware of these things when putting in our lineups.
Atlanta Falcons
Anyone who has been reading my column this season knows that Osi Umenyiora is a high expectation sleeper of mine. His strong preseason play failed to carry over to week one. Drew Brees does not take a lot of sacks so I am going to be patient with Umenyiora and chalk his 1 tackle performance up to the matchup. Even so I will still have to consider sitting him this week against a Rams offense that allowed no sacks to Arizona in the opener.
Hopefully Atlanta can find someone to compliment Umenyiora on the other side and take some of the pressure off. Against the Saints they started tackle Jonathan Babineaux at that position where he played 68 snaps. He may well be the team's second best pass rusher and if he continues to work at end, Babineaux could be worth a pickup by owners in tackle required leagues.
Along with Babineaux playing end, the Falcons moved Kroy Biermann to strong side linebacker against the Saints. He finished the game with an unimpressive 3 tackles and 2 assists. He is designated as an end in nearly all fantasy leagues, so if he continues to work at the second level Biermann could become a quality every week play for us.
Baltimore Ravens
After splitting time and playing second fiddle at strong safety, it was not a big surprise to see Matt Elam get on the field for only 13 plays against Denver. What was a surprise is that after playing in the passing down sub packages all preseason, Elam's rookie counterpart Arthur Brown saw just 6 snaps in week one. Josh Bynes and Daryl Smith were both three down linebackers in this game, with Bynes leading the team in tackles. Interesting as that may be, there are a couple of reason not to be in a hurry to add Bynes. Despite lower numbers in this one game, Smith is still the better player here. He made more plays in coverage and will undoubtedly be the better option on most weeks. The other reason not to jump on Bynes is that we could see a bigger role for Brown at any time. Denver made the Ravens defense look bad on Thursday night. One more such showing by this defense could usher in the less experienced but more talented rookies.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills safety situation will not go away. After advising (and taking) a wait and see approach with Da'Norris Searcy in week one, like every one who followed that suggestion, I had to sit and watch him go 5-4-1 with a 74 yard fumble recovery TD. The move ultimately cost me a couple of games. Searcy lined up at free safety in most situations but was not used in typical free safety fashion. He spent some time in a run support alignment near the line, blitzed a few times and was generally everywhere right up to the point when he left the game with an injury early in the fourth quarter. As of Tuesday afternoon we are still waiting for more info on that injury. It does not look like Jairus Byrd is going to be in uniform anytime soon and if Searcy continues to play as he did against New England, the Bills are probably okay with that. The only current concern with Searcy is the injury situation. If he is back on the field for week two, he will be in several of my lineups.
Searcy stole the show but he was not the only productive safety in a Bills uniform on Sunday. Strong safety Aaron Williams managed a respectable 4-5 and is probably roster worthy as a safe DB4 with DB3 upside. The guy we need to address however, is Jim Leonhard. Leonhard assumed the role formerly held by Bryan Scott. The Bills used a great deal of nickel in this game with Leonhard as the third safety. In many situations during the first three quarters he lined up as a linebacker next to Kiko Alonso. When Searcy left the game Leonhard assumed the free safety duties. In all he was on the field for 59 snaps, finishing with 9 solo tackles. If Searcy misses time, Leonhard could be a good pickup.
After seeing a good deal of three down duty during the preseason, Nigel Bradham was relegated to a two down time share with Arthur Moats in week one. If you grabbed Bradham as a late round sleeper it is time to move on.
Carolina Panthers
Charles Godfrey managed 7 solo stops and a sack in week one but do not be lured into that trap. It seems like he has a strong game or two at the beginning of every season before fading into obscurity. Last year he had 17 tackles in the first three games before finishing the season with 44.
Quintin Mikell played 50 of 66 snaps and recorded just 1 tackle after being with the team for only a few days. We can safely expect both his playing time and production to grow as he plays his way back into football condition. Mikell may ultimately provide some fantasy value though it is unlikely that he will produce on the level he has in the past. The quality of Carolina's front seven will likely limit his opportunity.
Chicago Bears
After sitting out the entire preseason with a calf injury, D.J. Williams replaces rookie Jon Bostic as the Bears two down middle linebacker in week one. Williams looked fine but failed to make much of an impact. Barring an injury to James Anderson or Lance Briggs, Williams seems unlikely to capture an every role this season.
As expected Corey Wootton opened as the Bears starting end opposite Julius Peppers. On passing down however, he shifted inside with Shea McClellin getting the outside rush opportunities. McClellin made the most of his opportunity with a couple of tackles and a sack on 30 snaps. It will be interesting to see f his role expands as the season progresses.
Cincinnati Bengals
The situation at safety in Cincinnati has been on our watch list all offseason. The Bengals looked at several guys during the preseason but it was George Iloka who earned the spot on opening day. His numbers (3-1) did not stand out, but this is a position with a good deal of potential. Keep an eye on Iloka going forward. As a trailer to that story, Taylor Mays played strong safety through much of the preseason but worked from a linebacker position in some of the week one sub packages. He is not going to have a significant role it seems.
It has been a long time coming but Carlos Dunlap finally joined Michael Johnson as the starting defensive ends for the Bengals. Neither player had a sack or made much of a box score impact against the Bears, but there is little doubt that the production will come. Likewise it is a safe bet that Geno Atkins goose egg in the opener was a complete fluke.
Cleveland Browns
The other Desmond Bryant opened some eye with a pair of sacks in week one. This is a player I had targeted from early in the preseason as a possible standout 3-4 end. One game is not a trend but two sacks is sure a positive start. Keep an eye on this guy.
Dallas Cowboys
Barry Church blew up with the best game of his career in week one, but think twice before putting him at the top of your waiver list. Church is a serviceable player on an improving defense but he is not a special player. That said, the new scheme could add to his previous value. Unless you are in dire need at the position I would put him low on the priority list until/unless he gives us another quality outing in week two.
Bruce Carter out produced Sean Lee in week one. This is not a surprise and it is likely to happen a few more times before the end of the year, but ultimately I still believe Lee with be the better overall fantasy option. Both guys are going to be every week starters for us.
Denver Broncos
Before week one no one had paid much attention to Denver strong safety Duke Ihenacho. He caught my eye on a few plays during the preseason but after decades with very little quality production from the Denver safety positions, I blew it off. His league leading 11 solo tackles in week one has everyone is paying attention now. This guy looks like the real deal. He moved all around the defensive formation during the game, showing an ability to make plays all over the field. Ihenacho lined up near the line a number of times and 15 yards deep several times as well. He always seemed to be going forward at the snap, showed outstanding anticipation and is a physical tackler. I doubt we will see many more double digit tackle games from him, but I will not be surprised if he becomes a top 15 DB and an every week must start. Grab him if you can. The Broncos linebacker situation has gone from bad to worse over the last week. Injuries forced a shuffle that landed Wesley Woodyard in the middle for week one, but and ankle injury cut his playing time short. As of Tuesday he has not practiced and is considered questionable for week two. Paris Lenon is the next man up and could be worth a spot start over the next week or two if you are in a pinch.
Adding insult to injury, Von Miller had yet another run in with the law this week and could have time added to his suspension. How can a guy in his situation be dumb enough not only drive with no license, but to get pulled over for speeding while he was doing it? All I can say is wow!
Houston Texans
In earlier columns I mentioned Danieal Manning as a player to keep an eye on. As a free safety in recent years he has been a marginal fantasy option at best. When he lines up at strong safety his numbers have been pretty good. Against San Diego Manning had 5 tackles and a sack. He is not going to challenge for a top 15 spot but Manning could prove to be a dependable DB3 for us.
J.J. Watt's quiet opener may be no more than a bump in the road, but it would be enough to make me a bit nervous if I had drafted him. Especially when we look at what happened to Jared Allen and Jason Pierre-Paul following their huge season.
Indianapolis Colts
If you picked up Pat Angerer after his return to the lineup in the third preseason game, fight off the urge to cut him after he sat week one with a concussion. Angerer was cleared to return on Tuesday and should be in the lineup week two. I may not have the confidence to start him this week, but there is enough potential to warrant one more week of patience.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Falling into the category of shocker is the fact that Russell Allen was a two down weak side linebacker in week one. Geno Hayes got the call on the strong side and joined Paul Posluszny in the nickel sub packages. Jacksonville linebackers are going to have a ton of opportunity so even though Hayes is a marginal NFL starter, he could ultimately make a lot of tackles. Have him your short list of guys to watch in week two.
The Jaguars defensive end situation has been on my watch list all offseason. The answer to me question is Jason Babin. He was a full time player against the Chiefs, finishing at 3-0-1. Babin went undrafted in a lot of leagues and he could be one of the few bright spots for a Jacksonville team that seems destined to struggle greatly.
Rookie Safety Johnathan Cyprien got off to a disappointing start but give him some time. He is going to be a good player in a target rich environment.
New England Patriots
After seeing him work as a three down middle linebacker during the preseason, a lot of owners used a late round pick on Brandon Spikes. if you were one of those owners be careful this week. His poor outing and questionable expectations will have a lot of people bailing quickly. Get the lowdown before cutting ties. New England opened in their nickel package and Spikes was part of that. He left the game early due to dehydration however, and ended up playing only 16 snaps. He is still far from a sure thing but is one of those guys that could come back to bite an owner who is too hasty. I am going to sit tight on him for one more week and see what happens.
New Orleans Saints
With the strong play of rookie Kenny Vaccaro during the preseason, there are a lot of nervous Roman Harper owners out there. In the opener against Atlanta Vacarro and Malcolm Jenkins were on the field for all 56 defensive snaps with Harper playing 49. I have not yet had a chance to watch this game completely and see what happened to Harper on the other 7 plays, but it looks to me as if Rob Ryan is going to get them all on the field together often. From the sampling I have seen of the game it looked as if Vaccaro spent a lot of time in a linebacker like role next to Curtis Lofton. This scheme may have been matchup based as the Falcons spread the field and threw a lot, so I am not sure that we really have any answers yet. One thing I do know, if you have any Saints linebacker besides Lofton it is time to move on.
New York Giants
He is not yet listed as a starter but if he can stay healthy Terrell Thomas may be a big pickup in corner required leagues. When this guy is healthy he makes a lot of tackles. He managed to lead the club with 6 tackles in week one while lining up at the nickel corner.
Week one gave us no answers when it comes to the Giants linebackers other than a clear message to stay away from them. Spencer Paysinger was the every down backer but managed only 4 tackles on 72 snaps. Mark Herzlich finished at 5-1 but was on the field for only 25 snaps. Until/unless someone clearly steps up, the only fantasy options in the back seven are the safeties and possibly Thomas at corner.
Oakland Raiders
It is still early but if week one is any indication, free safety Charles Woodson may have lost the magic. He finished the contest with 1 tackle and 2 assists, and was as close to a nonfactor as I have seen him be in years.
After having an every down role early in the preseason, Sio Moore played just 9 snaps on Sunday. It is hard to say if that is due to the injury of if he has somehow fallen from grace in Oakland. Redraft owner may want to put their finger on the trigger and pull if there is a quality pickup option out there. Dynasty owners need to keep the safety on and put the gun away. The future is bright for this guy.
It is no secret that I have been reserved when it comes to getting excited about Mychal Kendricks. He looked lost early in the preseason but when the lights came on for real, he played well. Kendricks led the team in tackles at 6-4-0 and added a fumble recovery for good measure. DeMeco Ryans looked better than expected as well but was overshadowed by Kendricks who made plays all over the field. If week one is any indication, everyone who picked him up late as an LB3 or LB4 got a steal.
Fletcher Cox continues to play well at his new position. He was quietly solid against with a 3-0-1 against Washington and seems well on the way to joining the short list of other 3-4 ends with fantasy value.
San Diego Chargers
Bront Bird had a huge game against Houston and is high on a lot of free agent lists this week. Keep in mind that he is a short term fill in that will be back on the bench in a couple of week when Manti Te'o comes back. Unless you are playing on the possibility that Te'o's injury is going to linger, you should make better use of that roster spot. Bird's big game was likely a product of the matchup anyway.
Seattle Seahawks
One of the weekend's biggest head scratchers is the fact that despite all the injuries and suspensions, Michael Bennett was not a starter against Carolina. Instead O'Brien Schofield got the start at end with Bennett playing mostly in passing situations. With Chris Clemons close to a return, Bennett's status has become very muddy.
There are a few more things I would like to cover this week but I am out of time. Be sure to check out the IDP roundtable on the Audible this week. We will hit on a few of the things I missed and talk a little about matchups as well. Best of luck this week and as always, Just Win Baby!
