WILD CARD WEEKEND PICKS
* Normally, I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Since there are only four games, they’re all best bets. I’ll still list my lock though. That is listed at the end.
Seahawks (-7.5) vs. Saints
I know, I know. The Seahawks blew out the Saints the last time they played, and that made everyone and their mother expect that it will happen again. So now we’re supposed to take the Saints because it’s the opposite of what everyone expects. But sometimes things become clichés due to them being true, and sometimes everyone knows something is going to happen because IT’S DEFINITELY GOING TO HAPPEN. The Seahawks are home, where they’ve been unbelievable all season. The Saints are on the road, where they have won a total of one postseason game in the history of the franchise (a mostly unimpressive win against a decent-but-not-great Eagles team). And we’re supposed to believe it all flips on its head this week? Sorry, I’m not buying.
Pick: Seahawks
Patriots (-7) vs. Colts
This is going out on a bit of a limb considering both of these teams beat Denver this season, but I believe the winner of this game is the unquestioned loser in the AFC Championship game (even if the Chargers somehow win at Denver). I’m not terribly impressed by the overall talent level on either team and I think both of them had some very good fortune to get to this point (playing in terrible divisions doesn’t hurt). And so a 7-point line feels very high to me. I had honestly expected Cincinnati to win last week, setting up a Broncos win over the Colts and a Bengals win over the Patriots this week. Now everything is out of whack, so without a real strong feeling towards either team I’m just going to take the free seven points.
Pick: Colts
Panthers (-1) vs. Niners
Everybody I know is all over the Niners, so it’s a bit of a surprise that this line hasn’t moved more than it has. For some reason, a team that couldn’t get out of its own way offensively for much of the season is now going to march into Lambeau and Carolina on back to back weeks and throw up great performances. And that aside, they didn’t exactly march into Lambeau and play all that well. Yes, they came away with a win in absolutely brutal conditions. But there were still some issues to be seen there, and Carolina has now had two weeks to get healthy. Are we so quickly forgetting how GOOD the Panthers were this season? I mean, this is a team that ransacked most of the NFC the second half of the season, with a nasty defense and a productive offense. And we see that they are only giving a point, which is supposed to mean that the line suggests the Niners are the better team on a neutral field? I can’t get on board with that just yet.
Pick: Panthers
Broncos (9.5) vs. Chargers
I’m not going to sit here and tell you that the Chargers will win. Let’s be honest, I thought they would win five or six games this season. Then declared their season over a half dozen times. Then picked them to lose against the Bengals last week. And I’m picking them to lose again this week (it’s not some reverse jinx thing either, I just don’t believe they win this one). But this line just screams “too high” to me. The teams split their games this season, and the time San Diego lost was also relatively close. I can see Denver jumping out to a large lead early with the Chargers chipping away after halftime. Then this one comes down to the fourth quarter, and a costly turnover plus too much Peyton Manning ends up being the downfall. Broncos 30-24.
Pick: Chargers
LOCK: San Diego Chargers
RECORD
LAST WEEK
Overall: 3-1 (75%)
Best Bets: 3-1 (75%)
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 142-114 (55%)
Best Bets: 35-37 (48%)
Lock of the Week: 11-7 (61%)
