Well, another season is in the books. There were some positives to take away from the season, such as being over 50% for the first time in a few years. Which just further illustrates how completely awful I was these last few seasons. I also connected on 10 of 17 locks, which is a decent hit rate. Of course, the downside is that I was under 50% on my best bets. So to recap, I did pretty well at picking games…except when I had a good feeling about those picks. Makes sense.
Going back to the preseason, I picked three of the six AFC division champs. I nailed the Patriots, Bengals, and Broncos but was WAY off on the Texans. I expected the Colts to take a step back (which they arguably did), but I never saw the Texans falling apart quicker than Miley Cyrus. Regarding the wild card teams, I didn’t pick either the Chiefs or Chargers to make it, instead going with the Dolphins and Ravens. Those two were alive for playoff spots about as long as you can be without actually making it. And about those Chiefs coming off an awful season, I did say I was on board with them for the season and that Jamaal Charles would finish with a hundred billion yards in leading fantasy teams to championships everywhere. I expected them to be around 8-8. But I NEVER saw this coming for San Diego. Woo woo.
Over in the NFC, I picked just two division winners but four playoff teams overall. Green Bay and Seattle came through, while Dallas couldn’t complete the trifecta. And New Orleans, after leading that division much of the season, had to settle for the wild card. Green Bay won it by making me look like a prophet (get it? It’s a homonym!) when I said that the Bears are going to give them a fight right up until the final week of the season. And then the Niners came through for me as another wild card. But perhaps my best call of the season was when I said of Atlanta: “I don’t know what it is about Atlanta this season. Perhaps it’s the horrible offensive line. Or the bad defense. Or the assumption that they will just continue to win games simply 'because'. Whatever the reason, I’m getting a bad vibe here from them.” Then I crapped all over that brilliance by saying Arizona had no talent.
Overall, my picks were more good than bad, and my Super Bowl representatives (Denver and Seattle) are still very much alive and finish the regular season ranked 1-2 in my and many others’ rankings. Not quite as good as last year when I picked Baltimore to beat New England and San Francisco to beat Atlanta in the conference championships, but good nonetheless. Heading into the playoffs, I can’t shake the feeling that Philadelphia and Cincinnati are playing better than just about anyone and those would be my sleeper picks. But I’ll stick with Denver and Seattle at this point, just because it’s gotten me this far and there’s no need to get cute now.
Wild Card Weekend PICKS
* Normally, I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Since there are only four games, they’re all best bets. I’ll still list my lock though. That is listed at the end.
Colts (-2.5) vs. Chiefs
I thought to myself over the last month or so that I couldn’t wait to pick against these two in the first round of the playoffs, no matter who they played. Soooo… Look, the Colts had a fine season and beat some quality teams. But the Reggie Wayne injury changed the entire dynamic of that offense, there’s nobody really reliable anymore, the Trent Richardson trade was an unmitigated disaster, and the defense isn’t really stopping anybody. They won the AFC South, which is the equivalent of winning Miss Meth USA, and I’m not terribly impressed. The Chiefs are getting points, but I think they have as good a chance as anybody of winning this game outright. Andy Reid has a ton of playoff coaching experience (which probably means nothing, I just put it in here because it looks good), Alex Smith is an effective game-manager (ditto here for the Reid comment), and the Chiefs have the best player on the field whenever Jamaal Charles is in the game (legit comment). The Kansas City defense will have to make a play or two, but I like them to do just that.
Pick: Chiefs
Eagles (-2.5) vs. Saints
The Eagles struggled down the stretch, losing to the Vikings and playing pretty poorly against a bad Cowboys team in some must-win games. But I just can’t get away from the Saints on the road being a significant detriment to them. If New Orleans can get through this game, it does set up a potentially epic rematch against Seattle, but I just think Philadelphia’s offensive efficiency and dominant run game to be the difference.
Pick: Eagles
Bengals (-7) vs. Chargers
Look, don’t listen to what I have to say about the Chargers. I have no idea what to make of them anymore. Who is going to cover A.J. Green? How will they handle all of the Cincinnati playmakers? What will they do about Giovani Bernard? How will they contain the Bengal pass rush? Can San Diego’s receivers get any separation? Is Ryan Mathews going to continue his incredible stretch he’s been on? The answer to all of these questions might be “elephant”, because that makes about as much sense as the rest of this season so far. Nobody knows which San Diego team shows up – the one that beat Kansas City, Denver, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, and Dallas – or the one that lost to Tennessee, Houston, Oakland, and Washington. Of all the games San Diego played this season, the one game they were thoroughly dominated in was the Cincinnati game. And they don’t match up well with them. And everybody and their mother keeps telling me they think San Diego will upset the Bengals. So add all that up, and this game could literally go two dozen directions. Which is why a 7-point line just feels too high to me. This should be a field goal game, and it won’t be over if it’s 20-0 at any point, because San Diego is just as capable of making up a deficit like that as they are of giving one up. And plus, you know, Bengals. This one should be crazy.
Pick: Chargers
Niners (-3) at Packers
I don’t care that they’re the defending NFC Super Bowl representative, because this is clearly not the same Niners team that went to the Super Bowl a year ago. IF they can get past this game (a big IF in my opinion), they’re set up well to make another run. But I’m not about to assume that Colin Kaepernick is going to march into sub-zero Lambeau Field in January and come out with a win. Sorry, just can’t do it.
Pick: Packers
LOCK: Kansas City Chiefs
RECORD
LAST WEEK
Overall: 11-5 (68%)
Best Bets: 3-1 (75%)
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 139-113 (55%)
Best Bets: 32-36 (47%)
Lock of the Week: 10-7 (58%)
POWER RANKINGS
(I added each team’s preseason ranking in the last column for comparison purposes)
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Seahawks 13-3 (2)
2. Broncos 13-3 (1)
3. Patriots 12-4 (4)
4. 49ers 12-4 (3)
5. Panthers 12-4 (20)
6. Bengals 11-5 (6)
7. Colts 11-5 (16)
8. Saints 11-5 (10)
9. Chiefs 11-5 (24)
10. Cardinals 10-6 (30)
11. Eagles 10-6 (18)
12. Chargers 9-7 (26)
13. Steelers 8-8 (17)
14. Packers 8-7-1 (5)
15. Cowboys 8-8 (11)
16. Ravens 8-8 (9)
17. Bears 8-8 (8)
18. Jets 8-8 (25)
19. Lions 7-9 (14)
20. Rams 7-9 (23)
21. Titans 7-9 (28)
22. Giants 7-9 (13)
23. Dolphins 8-8 (15)
24. Bills 6-10 (29)
25. Vikings 5-10-1 (22)
26. Falcons 4-12 (12)
27. Browns 4-12 (27)
28. Bucs 4-12 (21)
29. Redskins 3-13 (19)
30. Jaguars 4-12 (32)
31. Raiders 4-12 (31)
32. Texans 2-14 (7)
