WEEK 16 PICKS
* I pick four “best bets” and make one of those a “lock” each week. Those are listed at the end.
Miami (-2.5) at Buffalo
This line is gonna look bad when Buffalo wins the game outright. I liked the Dolphins this year and despite jumping back off the bandwagon a few weeks ago, I have to admit they’re playing better. But this Miami team of all teams, is not marching into the Ralph in mid-December and dominating.
Pick: Bills
Kansas City (-6.5) vs. Indianapolis
Much like Buffalo, do you realize how difficult it is to win in December at Arrowhead? It just doesn’t happen, even against bad Chiefs teams. And a good one featuring the most dominant individual in football? The fantasy savior himself, J-Chaz? C’mon.
Pick: Chiefs
Cincinnati (-7.5) vs. Minnesota
Let’s not get all crazy thinking that the Vikings are suddenly good just because they beat the Eagles. Cincinnati is a different team in their home stadium, and this one’s gonna get ugly.
Pick: Bengals
Denver (-10.5) at Houston
The Broncos had their slip-up last week against San Diego. I can’t see them underwhelming against two consecutive inferior opponents. Not to mention, this one will be nice and warm indoors so Peyton can get back to his usual five-touchdown performance.
Pick: Broncos
Carolina (-3.5) vs. New Orleans
That half point makes this one an easy call, even if it is the Saints on the road. This is a field goal game if I ever saw one.
Pick: Saints
Tennessee (-5.5) at Jacksonville
Oh, who cares.
Pick: Jaguars
Dallas (-3.5) at Washington
Now we’re taking it too far in the other direction. The Cowboys are much more talented than the Redskins, and shouldn’t have much trouble bouncing back with a big performance here. Forget last week. And if I hear one more person blaming Tony Romo as the sole reason for a loss in which the Dallas defense gave up 34 second half points to a guy who wasn’t good enough for the Raiders, I’m going to scream.
Pick: Cowboys
New York Jets (-2.5) vs. Cleveland
The Jets are favored in a game? Wow, must be playing somebody really horribOHNOWIGETIT.
Pick: Jets
Saint Louis (-5.5) vs. Tampa Bay
Oh, who cares…part II.
Pick: Bucs
Detroit (-9.5) vs. New York Giants
This feels like way too many points until you stop and think about just how completely beyond awful these Giants are. The Lions have struggled mightily lately, which just means this week they are primed for a completely dominant offensive performance, coupled with New York ineptitude. I’m not all that confident because Detroit, but this lead should in theory hit double digits.
Pick: Lions
Seattle (-10.5) vs. Arizona
Brutally tough game to pick. At this point in the season, we need to believe that Arizona is for real. But understandably, most of us are still kinda warming up to the idea. The Seahawks are home, which is supposed to make them an automatic take at this point. But this is a high line for two top-ten teams. Still, I don’t wanna break rules at this point in the season. If Seattle is going to slip at home, it’ll be here. But let’s wait until it happens before we start getting cute.
Pick: Seahawks
Green Bay (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh
The Steelers are showing that they still have a little bit of fight left in them, and Green Bay isn’t all the way over the hump just yet. Let’s not forget how badly they were being dismantled by the Cowboys – THE COWBOYS – a week ago.
Pick: Steelers
San Diego (-10.5) vs. Oakland
Oh, I’m sorry are you not familiar with San Diego’s M.O.? They beat Denver, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Dallas, and Philadelphia. But they lost to Tennessee, Washington, and Oakland. Not to mention, it’s entirely possible that they’ll be eliminated from playoff contention before this game even starts. There’s no way they should be double digit favorites here.
Pick: Raiders
Baltimore (-2.5) vs. New England
Sometimes, teams just seem to have other teams’ numbers. Such may be the case with these two, as the Ravens have played about as well as a team can play against New England in each of their last two meetings. With Baltimore coming off a huge victory and New England coming off a crushing defeat, it might feel like the right time to assume they flip-flop this week and the Pats to pull off a win. But I’m riding the Baltimore momentum, and while both teams need the game…Baltimore really needs it.
Pick: Ravens
Philadelphia (-3.5) vs. Chicago
The one thing that scares me here is that the Eagles may not need this game either way. Depending on what Dallas does earlier in the day, this game could end up being irrelevant for Philadelphia. The division title could come down to Week 17 regardless. So with Chicago needing it no matter what, I always tend to lean towards that when all else is equal.
Pick: Bears
San Francisco (-12.5) vs. Atlanta
This is a whole lotta points to lay with a team that doesn’t tend to blow out its opponents. Plus the Falcons have a lot of prideful veterans and aren’t going to just roll over and die these last two weeks. They stink, but this is going a bit far.
Pick: Falcons
BEST BETS: Bengals, Broncos, Raiders, Bears
LOCK: Denver Broncos
RECORD
LAST WEEK
Overall: 10-6 (62%)
Best Bets: 2-2 (50%)
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE
Overall: 111-93 (54%)
Best Bets: 25-31 (44%)
Lock of the Week: 7-7 (50%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Prv)
1. Seahawks 11-2 (1)
2. Broncos 11-2 (2)
3. Patriots 10-3 (3)
4. Chiefs 10-3 (5)
5. Saints 10-3 (6)
6. 49ers 9-4 (7)
7. Panthers 9-4 (4)
8. Bengals 9-4 (8)
9. Cardinals 8-5 (10)
10. Eagles 8-5 (13)
11. Cowboys 7-6 (9)
12. Colts 8-5 (11)
13. Lions 7-6 (12)
14. Bears 7-6 (15)
15. Ravens 7-6 (14)
16. Packers 6-6-1 (17)
17. Dolphins 7-6 (21)
18. Chargers 6-7 (18)
19. Titans 5-8 (16)
20. Rams 5-8 (19)
21. Steelers 5-8 (20)
22. Jets 6-7 (22)
23. Browns 4-9 (24)
24. Giants 5-8 (23)
25. Bucs 4-9 (28)
26. Redskins 3-10 (25)
27. Falcons 3-10 (26)
28. Bills 4-9 (27)
29. Jaguars 4-9 (30)
30. Vikings 3-9-1 (29)
31. Raiders 4-9 (31)
32. Texans 2-11 (32)
