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stat crew anomalies
Every team has played a minimum of four games through five weeks and at least two games at home. So, while the sample size isn't truly significant yet, it's time to start looking at opportunity and stat crew anomalies and trends. IDP owners are often forced to play matchups during the middle part of the NFL schedule, when bye weeks and injuries conspire against the depth of your roster.
This week, we'll look at stat crew trends. These anomalies aren't new. Aaron Rudnicki, Larry Thomas and I have been recording and reporting on these differences since 2005. As we wrote two years ago, the NFL changed its default recording practices and dramatically altered the landscape of assisted tackle numbers. Depending on how your league scores tackles and assists, you may want to avoid some stadiums altogether. It's not the only factor in making close matchup calls -- snap count still rules the day -- but it's critically important.
Next week, we'll consider tackle opportunity, pass rush and coverage matchup trends. You can find all of these metrics and many more tremendously helpful trends in Larry Thomas' Matchup Spreadsheet. It's released every Tuesday.
stadiums to exploit
Washington (assist happy, solo neutral)
Washington's stadium crew is among the most likely crews in the league to award an assisted tackle. But they don't do so at the expense of solos. The effect isn't as pronounced for visiting defenders but it's still there.
Buffalo | Pittsburgh | New York Giants (assist favorable, solo neutral)
These three stadiums award an average number of solos per opportunity and are among the league's most assist-heavy crews. They aren't as favorable as Washington, but worth targeting if you're in a pinch.
stadiums to avoid
Seattle (solo stingy, assist happy)
On average, the Seattle stadium crew records a solo tackle on only half of the tackle opportunities possible. It is the only stat crew that records more assists than solos. The effect is worse for Seahawks' defenders, but it's there for visiting defenders as well. I've written about this before, but coupled with a well below-average tackle opportunity number, Seattle IDPs on average split just 24-25 solo tackles in every home game. Compared to crews in San Diego, Miami and Houston, a Seattle defender is 50% less likely to be awarded a solo tackle on any given play. It's hard to bench Bobby Wagner, but that's an Everest-esque hill to climb eight times a season.
No one else compares to Seattle. Indianapolis is close. Cleveland is trending hard in this direction over its past two home games. New England is less favorable overall but I'd like to see more data. Cincinnati is a risk, but seems to be improving over its past two home games.
Arizona | Jacksonville | Miami | St. Louis | Kansas City (assist stingy)
Consider avoiding these stadiums if your league scores solo and assisted tackles equally. These crews are five times less likely to award an assist -- Jacksonville has awarded just five through two games -- than those on the opposite side of the spectrum.
"just one more thing..." - the columbo blurbs
No, it wasn't Ace Ventura that coined the detective phrase, "Just one more thing." It was Peter Falk. This week's team-by-team section is dedicated to those of us who grew up enjoying Perry Mason novels and chuckling at the lazy-eyed, more brilliant-than-bumbling, frazzled raincoat detective. And my clever way of asking forgiveness for the shorter than usual discussion after a long Tuesday evening of watching and talking about the Frontline concussion documentary, League of Denial.
ARIZONA
There's no reason to rehash the play of Daryl Washington. He's back to elite fantasy linebacker status. He looked as good as his stat line suggests. Calais Campbell had his best game of the season, taking advantage of a solid matchup. Hopefully, that's the beginning of a trend that puts him back alongside Cam Jordan and now Muhammad Wilkerson as the most disruptive 3-4 defensive end this side of J.J. Watt.
ATLANTA
With Akeem Dent out with injury, many assumed that Paul Worrilow would step in as the every-down middle linebacker. The Falcons just don't believe he's ready yet. Two weeks ago, Worrilow sat in many subpackages against New England. Last week, he wasn't trusted as the signal-caller in the base defense. Continue to track his progress, but neither he nor Joplo Bartu are fantasy options yet.
BALTIMORE
It's a brave new world in IDP leagues. It's an extended discussion for another day, but more rush outside linebacker and 3-4 defensive ends are proving that they belong in lineups every week regardless of matchup in balanced scoring systems. Terrell Suggs is one of them. Last week also marked the return of Arthur Brown, who looked very good in his nickel role. Josh Bynes isn't giving up his base role anytime soon, however.
BUFFALO
The Bills are keeping Aaron Williams at corner for now. It looks like Jairus Byrd could be back this week. He may not play every down, which should keep Da'Norris Searcy in reasonable fantasy value for one more week.
CAROLINA
Robert Lester is playing well enough in coverage that he may stick at safety regardless of how soon Quintin Mikell recovers from his ankle injury. The Panthers often lean on veterans, so there was some potential for Mikell to shift over even if he wasn't listed atop the depth chart there. Regardless, there's going to be too much variance in this secondary to trust week to week.
chicago
The Bears are moving Corey Wootton inside. He's a good fit at 3-technique tackle on all downs and could continue to hold DL2 matchup value. It's very good news for Shea McClellin.
CINCINNATI
I cautioned against making a big bet on Rey Maualuga last week. He's not a subpackage player when the Bengals have enough healthy bodies in the back seven. Wallace Gilberry has always been a strong situational rusher, but he impressively held up over 50 snaps against the Patriots. He may be the 2014 starter should the Bengals not find a way to bring Michael Johnson back.
CLEVELAND
Paul Kruger finally showed some signs of life -- on film, anyway -- against Buffalo. Should Barkevious Mingo continue his trend of adding more productive snaps each week, Kruger may get the same lack of attention he received in Baltimore. I've been getting questions on Buster Skrine. This is no fluke. The pass rush is solid, the Browns are in games and Joe Haden will send plenty of chances Skrine's way. He was in my elite CB1 tier for a reason last week.
DALLAS
Ask me about Ernie Sims play against the run last week and I'll show you my E-trade baby "sarcastically shocked" face. Sims doesn't add as much in coverage over Bruce Carter as he gives up against the run. It shouldn't be too long before Carter wins his every-down job back. Until that happens, Barry Church is an even stronger DB play.
DENVER
If Wesley Woodyard misses time with his shoulder / neck injury, both Danny Trevathan and Nate Irving will see more snaps. Irving is your better option against teams that will run offense between the tackles, Trevathan will be better against teams that spread the ball more. Neither is a great bet against Jacksonville this week.
DETROIT
The Lions' defensive line were surprisingly well handled by the Packers last week. Ezekiel Ansah may be more limited by his abdominal injury than he's letting on, but I think much of the poor stat production had to do with a run heavy Green Bay game plan and a detailed protection scheme set up for a Lions' line they knew well.
GREEN BAY
The potential loss of Clay Matthews for a month or more will be a big boost to the IDP value of the tacklers in the back seven. There's no pass rush without Matthews and the Packers are going to have difficulty ending drives quickly and getting off the field on third downs.With Brad Jones out at least one week with a hamstring injury, go get A.J. Hawk. Next man up would have been Robert Francois, who was a decent IDP value briefly last year, but he tore an Achilles tendon last week. That leaves Jamari Lattimore. Consider him in deep leagues only.
HOUSTON
Nothing new to report here. J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing are studs. Whitney Mercilus continues to develop. Ed Reed remains a rotational body. Deep league owners can watch for improvement from Jared Crick and D.J. Swearinger. Otherwise, cross your fingers Watt and Cushing stay healthy.
INDIANAPOLIS
Pat Angerer didn't play well last week. Unfortunately, my concern that he'd begin rotating out of some packages for Kavell Conner has become reality. It's unlikely that trend ends soon.
JACKSONVILLE
Jonathan Cyprien isn't ready to join the ranks of elite NFL safeties yet. His coverage angles still need work. But he is arguably an elite fantasy safety already, given the opportunity he'll see, relatively weak surrounding cast and fundamental, aggressive tackling style. He's close to a quit-streaming, set-it-and-forget-it DB in shallow leagues.
KANSAS CITY
Dontari Poe continues to develop and to show that he was a poor fit as a 2-gap nose. There won't be many centers in the league that will contain Poe if he can maintain his conditioning for 50+ snaps every week. Eric Berry has never been a big tackle producer in coverage. His numbers will be sensitive to games when the opposing team runs the ball few times, as the Titans did last week.
MIAMI
Cameron Wake played just three snaps last week. It's difficult to force a player to rest, but Wake should not have been practicing or preparing to play in either of the past two weeks. Hopefully, the rest through the bye will allow him to return healthy in Week 7.
MINNESOTA
The Vikings signed Brian Robison to a contract extension today. As long as he's opposite Jared Allen, he's a DL3 with matchup upside. There's been no news from Minnesota over the bye week to suggest Desmond Bishop will see a larger role this week.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Chasing the New England snap counts is more difficult than catching a fly with chopsticks. Brandon Spikes was back in the nickel -- though not in a fairly prevalent dime package -- last week. Dont'a Hightower was a base defender only. It's too hard to trust either backer against the multiple offensive sets of New Orleans this week. Steve Gregory lost a handful of snaps to Duron Harmon. On the bright side, both Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich continue to stay on the field every single down. Expect something different next week.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Nothing new in New Orleans. Watch the practice participation reports for the status of Roman Harper. If he plays, all three safeties should see lots of snaps against New England's spread offense this week.
NEW YORK GIANTS
After playing almost every down in Week 4, Mark Herzlich was on the active roster with a toe injury but didn't play a single snap. This time, it was Keith Rivers who got the call against the athletic Philadelphia offensive scheme. The bulk of the value went to the multi-safety alignment the Giants used. Both Will Hill and Ryan Mundy racked up numbers. Unfortunately, though he played the same number of snaps, Antrel Rolle put up a zero. Much of that had to do with the coverage scheme the Giants used, which put Rolle in man situations rather than his usual slot/robber role. Hill, who was playing his first game off suspension, may not see the same number of snaps this week.
OAKLAND
The Raiders continue to work in more 3-4 base defensive sets. That's not surprising given Dennis Allen's multiple defense background. It's working out well for Kevin Burnett, who takes the tackles he's presented with and made lots of plays in coverage against San Diego. It may be time to add rookie D.J. Hayden to our list of slot corners with strong weekly upside. He could be an even better play if he can displace Mike Jenkins at strong side corner soon.
PHILADELPHIA
Connor Barwin's pass rush looked better last week, but must be considered in the context of the matchup against the floundering New York Giants. He's probably not on your radar yet in sack-heavy leagues, but worth a look again this week to see if his play was the beginning of a trend.
ST. LOUIS
Robert Quinn was dominant again against Jacksonville. Unfortunately, it didn't translate to the box score as he finished with just two solos. He's still an every-week elite DL1. As expected, Alec Ogletree remained an every-down linebacker despite the return of Jo-Lonn Dunbar. Ogletree continues to have some on-field issues, but his tackle numbers are good enough to keep him in the LB3 tiers.
SAN DIEGO
We're getting closer to seeing Donald Butler and Manti Te'o as every-down linebackers again. Reggie Walker may still see a spare dime snap, but Butler and Te'o are going to be the best fantasy options. Richard Marshall should go back to his slot role if Shareece Wright returns this week. That's Marshall best fantasy spot.
SAN FRANCISCO
I still don't believe Michael Wilhoite is playing as well as Larry Grant did in place of Patrick Willis, but it's difficult to deny the numbers he's putting up. The next two weeks bring less favorable matchups, however, and Willis' return isn't far away. Resist the urge to chase last week's stats unless you're in a deeper league and Willis doesn't practice.
SEATTLE
Bobby Wagner was slowed by an ankle injury despite playing nearly every down last week. There are reports he may have a high ankle sprain. As noted above, he's facing a tough task to overcome his home stat crew. The matchups don't look overly promising in future weeks. If you can get LB1 value from someone who isn't aware of those issues, take it.
TAMPA BAY
Tampa was on bye last week. Check the participation reports to see whether Mark Barron will be healthy enough to take advantage of a nice matchup against Philadelphia this week.
TENNESSEE
The Titans arguably had two every-week starters on defense in Week 1 -- Zach Brown and Derrick Morgan. Brown has been waylaid by the Titans' dime package, which again cost him many snaps last week. It's an issue that isn't going away and it won't help that Brown was dinged up in last week's game. Morgan looked great in the first half last week, but couldn't finish the game after suffering a shoulder injury. Keep an eye on rookie Lavar Edwards if Morgan can't play this week.
WASHINGTON
Washington comes out of the bye week facing two strong tackle matchups. They should be at full strength without any injured starters. Brandon Meriweather, London Fletcher and Perry Riley are your primary balanced leagues bets, but Ryan Kerrigan is nearing a spot in the every-week, big play scoring league tiers.
Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our weekly IDP podcast here every Thursday for injury updates, player analysis and matchup discussion. Check my article page on Sunday morning for notes on every team's key injuries, depth chart changes and IDP expectations. Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel.