I want to try something different this week but I'd very much like your continued feedback.
With the strong work put in by Aaron Rudnicki on our Monday IDP Upgrades column and John Norton's team-by-team Eyes of the Guru review released on Wednesday, I've used this column as a bridge between those features. Rather than try to cover a lot of players, I've focused on a more in-depth look -- with extra film study and using metrics and rate stats to look for under-the-radar trends -- at the player and team situations which caught my eye.
But I have a vocal set of readers that wonder why I never seem to write about their players and why I haven't covered a particular situation in weeks. And I've received more positive feedback about the new Sunday AM quick hitting notes column than any other IDP column I write regularly.
So, this week, I'm going to change the format of RTD and take a game by game, team by team approach to the content. I'm hoping to strike a good balance but there's likely to be a less depth in some areas at the expense of some added breadth in others.
Thanks again in advance for your feedback on the change in format.
New York Jets at New England
Demario Davis hasn't been the upside play I thought he'd become this year, but he's showing signs of improved play. He was more aggressive last week and didn't look lost in coverage. It's also notable that the Jets have faced the third fewest tackle opportunities in the league through three games and his teammates aren't out-tackling him by a large margin. Give him the benefit of the doubt for another week or two. The Jets are still rotating Antonio Allen (4-4 last week) with Jaiquawn Jarrett. There could be some value here later in the year, but neither player is talented enough to trust. Dee Milliner hasn't fulfilled the rookie corner rule yet. The Jets benched him last week, so he may not get a second chance for awhile. I'll have more on the injury status of Quinton Coples and Sheldon Richardson on Sunday morning.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times and your name is Brandon Spikes. We're now two games into the season and Spikes hasn't played 50 snaps. So much for a contract year renaissance. Instead, we're left to turn our attention to Dont'a Hightower. Unfortunately, he's not been impressive at all. Slow to close outside the tackles, not providing much in coverage and he's not been given a chance to rush the passer. Dynasty owners can continue to hold Hightower if you've got the roster space and wait to see if he can become a Curtis Lofton type middle linebacker next season after Spikes moves on. But don't roster him at the expense of a higher upside option.
St. Louis at Atlanta
James Laurinaitis hasn't lived up to his elite billing -- 11 solos, 0 assists, 1 pass defensed in two weeks. His home stat crew isn't going to give his lackluster solo count a boost with any assisted tackles. It's not time to panic yet, but I'd be more inclined to move him for LB2+ value than try to buy him low right now. Alec Ogletree might be this season's Zach Brown. A inconsistent tackling rookie who's athletic enough to fill up the box score regardless of how many plays he misdiagnoses, overruns or gets blocked away from due to poor technique. I think he's a sell high in redraft leagues, but make sure you're getting very good value for him if you take that route in dynasty leagues. Robert Quinn's dominance has come against two below-average offensive tackles, but the speed off the edge, closing burst and confidence boost these strong weeks have provided him are very real. He's blossoming into a stud and if the Rams continue to keep games close, he'll get enough pass rush chances to offset his lack of solo tackle production in run support. I'm close to recommending Rodney McLeod as a matchup cloud target, but his coverage is iffy enough to keep him off my every-week DB2 list.
Sean Weatherspoon was put on the IR/designated to return list this week. That means the Falcons see his foot sprain as an 8+ week injury. In other words, there's no guarantee he'll be back in Week 11. Don't carry him on your active roster hoping he'll be valuable for a playoff run. Use the roster spot elsewhere and stash him on your IR list. The Falcons also lost SLB/DE Kroy Biermann to a torn Achilles. Joplo Bartu, who was getting a long look as a nickel linebacker over Akeem Dent in the last two preseason weeks and was seeing some playing time last week before those injuries, will move into the lineup and likely into an every-down role. Bartu's stat line won't wow you, but he's a fine LB4+ option with upside (and variance) for those in deeper leagues. Stephen Nicholas may get a look again, but I wonder if we won't see the Falcons find a way to get Paul Worrilow into the lineup. If that happens, we could see Dent moved to weak side linebacker to make room and anything is possible in subpackages. We may not get any advance notice here, so be ready to move quickly on any future Sunday morning when the lineup cards are released. Osi Umenyiora continues to be the high variance, high upside DL1 he'd been when healthy in New York. The per snap pass rush hits and hurries are still promising, but he's not providing the solo tackles in run support his preseason play suggested he would. He's a much better start in big play heavy leagues for now.
Cleveland at Baltimore
I'm with Matt Waldman on Barkevious Mingo. He's going to be inconsistent and may not see more than 25-30 snaps in most weeks. But he's showing the same upside we've seen from part-time players like Aldon Smith and Justin Houston. If we start to see him improve in run support and coverage soon, he'll attract too much attention in pass rush to delay rostering him any longer. The more interesting question will be which linebacker loses snaps as Mingo develops.
The 3-8 line for Daryl Smith caught my eye this week. I don't think Smith has been nearly as effective as he looked in the preseason, but that stat line could be part of a larger problem. The Baltimore home stat crew awarded 66 assisted tackles last week against 69 solos for both teams combined. If that continues, it's a problem for any front seven player in Baltimore unless you get equal points for solos and assists in your league. It's a change from last year's trend and bears watching. Matt Elam took over for Michael Huff last week. He struggled badly at times but John Harbaugh gave him a vote of confidence after the game and he'll get more opportunities to improve under fire. There wasn't any significant change in the Josh Bynes (base) / Arthur Brown (sub) platoon, though it looked like Brown was getting as many blitz opportunites as coverage responsibilities. Should that continue, it'll be notable when he takes over a full time role.
Carolina at Buffalo
I'm not sure there's a healthy body in the Carolina secondary right now. Nearly every cornerback has an injury issue and Charles Godfrey went down for the season with a torn Achilles last week. Mike Mitchell and Quintin Mikell had been rotating at strong safety. Mitchell has already been dinged this season and Mikell now has an ankle sprain. It's expected that Mikell and Mitchell will continue to rotate at one safety spot with D.J. Moore and Colin Jones battling for snaps at the other spot. Wait for a snap count and tackle trend to emerge before investing in this mess.
Nigel Bradham played one snap against Carolina. That's not a typo. But don't go rushing out to acquire Arthur Moats (7-1 against Carolina) yet. Moats did all his damage in just 33 snaps (of a possible 79) with the base defense. The upcoming schedule is promising (NYJ, BAL, CLE aren't known to use a slot receiver and spread formations often) but Moats is going to be a high variance play. And we're still seeing lots of Da'Norris Searcy -- who played every-down last week -- and Jim Leonhard in three safety packages with Aaron Williams. That's without free safety Jairus Byrd. Kiko Alonso has been all-or-nothing. He's either in the backfield or hole making a play or out of position. As long as he continues to convert on his positive plays, he'll be a solid LB2. But he'll need to tighten up his play or face lots of midseason variance. Mario Williams abused the Carolina offensive tackles. More importantly, his bull rush appears to be back. If he can continue to show the power he had against Carolina, the plantar fasciitis he's reportedly dealing with is of no concern and he's a lock to be a DE1 this year.
Minnesota at Chicago
We had a Desmond Bishop sighting last week. Unfortunately, it was brief and reminiscent of a certain prognosticator of prognosticators who forecasted six more weeks of winter. Two snaps for Bishop this week and there's no sign that'll change anytime soon. What could change is the role of Xavier Rhodes, who looked more comfortable against the Bears and could get his starting job back quickly.
James Anderson (8-1, PD) continues to look like an every-week LB3. There will be some variance, but he was good enough in zone coverage last week to think that his upcoming stretch (PIT, DET, NO, NYG) is a very favorable one. Jon Bostic has yet to play a defensive snap through two games. D.J. Williams isn't reminding anyone of Butkus-Singletary-Urlacher and the longer Bostic fails to crack the middle linebacker rotation, the more concerned you should be that his athleticism may not translate to the type of execution defense the Bears run. It's not a complicated scheme but it must be played correctly. Corey Wootton and Shea McClellin continue to rotate. This week, Wootton was the better overall player and broke through with a sack and multiple hurries.
Washington at Green Bay
Don't rush to judgment on London Fletcher yet, but there are cracks in the armor. Fletcher's solid first week came at home, where the stat crew often buoys the box scores with added assists. On the road, with similar tackle opportunity and facing a similar offense, Fletcher managed just a 1-1 line last week. It'll be worth watching to see if a trend develops. Brandon Meriweather lasted 23 snaps before knocking himself out. He'll have a hard time gaining clearance to play this week. If and when Meriweather returns to the lineup, note that Bacarri Rambo played a more traditional free safety role than he had last week. Rambo had three of his solos in that role against Green Bay, but that may not be sustainable over the longer term.
There not much interesting to report with Green Bay. The roles are what we thought they'd be, the disappointing players are who we thought they'd be. Other than the continued absence of Morgan Burnett raising concern for a longer absence, the only notable trend is the relative lack of pass rush chances Brad Jones is getting out of the subpackages. It's a small sample, but I'd like to see some added big play chances before tiering Jones as an every-week LB2.
Tennessee at Houston
Jurrell Casey has played nearly 90% of his team's snaps this year. And he's been dominant. If he can continue to play this many snaps this effectively without breaking down, he's a top five option in DT-required leagues. I know I'm continuing to swim upstream on Zach Brown, but it's hard not to be frustrated watching him on film. He looks every bit as impressive as Lavonte David at times. Other times, he's maddeningly annoying as a run defender. As long as he continues to play every-down alongside this current group of linebackers and Bernard Pollard, who has lost almost all of his former range and needs to be kept around the box, Brown will clean up enough tackles to be a borderline LB1. In other news, Moise Fokou is our Denny Green Player of the Week. He is who we thought he was. A marginal talent in a target rich environment who still can't make enough tackles to be trusted with a lineup slot in fantasy leagues. He was a liability against Houston and may play his way out of a job by midseason. George Wilson got a little burn in subpackage last week -- 40 snaps compared to 3 in Week 1. Just something to file away if Pollard is injured or benched. I don't anticipate that happening anytime soon.
I wrote last week that J.J. Watt didn't get enough box score value out of his dominant second half performance. That changed this week. We may finally be seeing the Brian Cushing I hoped for two years ago. His issue is going to be durability. He's getting a good number of pass rush snaps on nickel downs and has little competition for tackles. Even if he never regains the physicality and range he had before his injuries, he'll be an every-week LB2. There's not much else of note with the Texans. Joe Mays, Darryl Sharpton and D.J. Swearinger Sr are rotating too much to worry over.
Miami at Indianapolis
I've no idea what happened to Cameron Wake this week, but I'm willing to allow a rare stinker from an elite end. The Colts chipped him frequently but didn't double team him on every play, and used a lot of 3- and 5-step drops. There's no one else on the line bringing pressure, but Wake will usually be good enough to overcome those issues. Olivier Vernon has struggled in all phases. He's probably playing too many snaps and it won't be surprising to see Dion Jordan's snap count rise dramatically as soon as the team feels his shoulder can handle it. If you're holding onto Vernon, turn his roster space into something of higher value.
Pat Angerer was back this week. He and Jerrell Freeman played close to every down, each giving way for a handful of snaps for conditioning purposes more than anything else. The stat crew in Indianapolis conveniently kept Angerer's solo count down to give you another week to pick him up if you've been dragging your feet. You may not get another chance with the Colts headed to San Francisco this week. Bjoern Werner was a little better this week but he's still not ready for fantasy lineups.
Dallas at Kansas City
One week may be a fluke, two weeks may be a trend. That may be the case with both Barry Church (14 solos in two weeks) and Sean Lee (7 solos in two weeks) but I'm stubborn. Lee is the vastly better talent, Church has never been consistent and the scheme should not support this type of outburst from anyone not named John Lynch. Bruce Carter's numbers should improve, too, but he hasn't been as good against the run as I'd hoped. Anthony Spencer is ready to see a larger role after making it through last week's game without any residual knee issues. But George Selvie -- a player I had on the dynasty watch list a couple of seasons ago in St. Louis -- has built on a strong preseason with a good start to the regular season and has earned some rotational time. Wait on using Spencer until his snap count and production are relevant again.
It was a disappointing week for Justin Houston and Eric Berry. Houston saved his owners with a solid five solo performance that bodes well for his usage as a LB3 in balanced tackle setups. Berry just didn't play well. Dontari Poe is a better fit in the current flavor of Kansas City 3-4. He's being allowed to use his quickness in the 1-gap front more often. He's also playing with better leverage and has been using his hands extremely well. But he's not the second coming of Geno Atkins. Last week, his two sacks came on a complete whiff from center Doug Frederick on one play and a missed assignment where he was unblocked on another. In Week 1, one of his sacks was coverage related and I'm not certain he deserved credit in the boxscore. That's nitpicking a bit because his game is clearly better, but don't be discouraged if he's less productive in coming weeks despite what looks to be a continued stretch of good matchups.
San Diego at Philadelphia
So much for the argument that the Philadelphia high tempo offense would be an every-week lock for high tackle opportunity. After a monster 67 tackle opportunities given to Washington on the road, the San Diego defense got just 44 in Philadelphia last week. That would've been tough enough to overcome for the Chargers' inside backers. But Donald Butler had on his Mr. Hyde helmet again and was out of sorts on his way to a very disappointing effort. But that wasn't the most striking disappointment in the San Diego box score. After nearly playing every down and running up a big line in Week 1, Bront Bird played five snaps -- again, not a typo -- and a Blutarsky-esque 0-0 line. Reggie Walker and Andrew Gachkar saw the majority of snaps. In last week's column, I argued that Bird was at risk of a big snap count hit against Philadelphia but still felt he was a reasonable high variance play. It's yet another example of why you must be leery when a marginal talent runs up a big number in Week 1.
Mychal Kendricks has 12 solo tackles (18 total) and two fumble recoveries in two weeks. That's the LB2 pace I'd hoped for him. But he's also been out of position too often and missed too many tackles at the point of attack. On the bright side, he (and DeMeco Ryans) are being asked to rush frequently in long down and distance situations. That's a role in which Kendricks thrived in college and could give his stat line a welcome boost in future weeks. Patrick Chung has 9 solos and 15 total tackles through two games. He's struggling in coverage again and, though he's played every down, looked a little slow already in Week 2. If you bought into him heavily this preseason, it might be time to look into selling.
Detroit at Arizona
Ndamukong Suh doesn't have a sack yet but he's been pressuring the pocket more often than early season darlings Dontari Poe and Jurrell Casey. See if you can buy low now. Willie Young is again showing what he can do in a rotational role and with the defensive tackle rotation playing well, Young could be a target in deep, sack-heavy scoring leagues. Your patience in Glover Quin was rewarded last week against a marginal matchup. The rest of his schedule looks much better and I'm still high on him as a potential DB1. I thought it would take Ezekiel Ansah some time to develop as a pass rusher. It hasn't. Defensive line guru Jim Washburn already has Ansah's first step and pad level light years ahead of what it was at BYU. Ansah was already a decent run defender. There's always room for the potential vs production debate with players like Ansah, but I've always felt he was more inexperienced than raw. Offensive tackles may adjust quickly to his bull rush, but if the first quarter interim report is any indication, Ansah will be able to adjust just as ably.
Tread lightly. That was my recommendation on Jasper Brinkley after his 8-0, 2 QH, PD Week 1 line. Against the spread offense of Detroit, Brinkley played just 14 snaps and managed just one solo tackle. Instead, the Cardinals used a mix of six defensive backs. They'll do the same against New Orleans and unless you think the Saints go up multiple touchdowns early and use fewer spread sets, it's best to shelve Brinkley. Ride the Tyrann Mathieu trend one more week against New Orleans and then start shopping him to the highest bidder. If you get CB1 / DB2+ value for him, you will have lost nothing and relieved yourself of lots of variance and long term risk. I'm a fan of slot corners who play the run reasonably well, but the hype on Mathieu is too high right now.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
I'm pushing Cameron Jordan again this week. He's not J.J. Watt, but he's arguably next on the list of 3-4 defensive ends I'm willing to roster and put in my fantasy lineups. The Saints deployed their safeties the same way last week, with Kenny Vaccaro a full time player getting snaps in the box in some subpackages. Roman Harper continues to get enough snaps and cash in on enough chances to hold his DB2 value, but he's a higher variance play.
Adrian Clayborn flashed at times last week, but he's still too inconsistent to trust as a DL2. Lavonte David, like most linebackers, struggled in the solo tackle column against New Orleans, but his effectiveness in subpackage situations pushed him into LB1 range again. You might think Mark Barron ran up big numbers chasing Jimmy Graham around, but his tackles came in run support. He'll be fine despite the weak first game. There hasn't been much of an "avoid Revis" trend to exploit with Leonard Johnson or Johnthan Banks, but it's a trend to watch for expectantly. Don't rush to roster DaShon Goldson; he's suspended this week.
Denver at New York Giants
Danny Trevathan had a monster week, but sat in a number of defensive situations. Be careful before spending major capital on him in free agency. His role isn't assured week-to-week, especially after Von Miller returns. Duke Ihenacho wasn't as impressive on the field and missed part of the game with an ankle injury. But he still managed a respectable five solos. He's a DB1 when healthy.
Ryan Mundy has me convinced. He's had two productive weeks against two different styles of offense and won't get much competition for anyone else in the back seven. Teams will throw at Prince Amukamara as long as he continues to struggle but don't expect double digit tackles that often. Any pass rush matchup against Peyton Manning should be avoided, but Jason Pierre-Paul isn't there yet. On our live Thursday show, we noted that it may be 3-4 weeks before the old Pierre-Paul returns. His early play suggests it'll be a little longer -- he's still primarily a situaitonal rusher -- but I think patience is warranted with him.
Jacksonville at Oakland
Geno Hayes is still playing every down and he's assumed the strong statistical trend we saw from Russell Allen in recent seasons. I'm still leery of buying into Hayes, but if Allen doesn't break back into subpackages soon, Hayes could be a silently strong LB3. Jonathan Cyprien's numbers are improving, but there will be variance until he settles into the speed of the NFL.
Nick Roach was easily the most disappointing line of the week. Bront Bird and Jasper Brinkley and Nigel Bradham were known risks. Roach played every down and didn't play that poorly. The tackle opportunity wasn't great, as the Jaguars ran the ball just 19 times, but there was enough for Roach to dent the box score somewhere. There's better matchups on the horizon, especially on the road in Denver this week. For now, consider Week 2 the more likely fluke than the 5-4 Week 1 performance. Tyvon Branch is out indefinitely with an ankle fracture. Early reports suggest Usama Young will play alongside Charles Woodson. Young won't be a clear DB1 but he had a number of 5-6 solo weeks in Cleveland and the competition for tackles in Oakland isn't too limiting. The Raiders are increasing D.J. Hayden's snap count and it won't be long until we see him starting. He's got a strong profile for fantasy production.
San Francisco at Seattle
The Seattle stat crew picked up where they left off in 2012. 60 assisted tackles were awarded to the teams last Sunday night. NaVorro Bowman (4-7) took the biggest hit for San Francisco. The Niners lost Ian Williams to a season-ending leg injury. Normally, nose tackle injuries aren't major IDP news, but I like Glenn Dorsey's upside in that role. Move on him in DT-required leagues if you've got space rather than waiting for a trend to develop. It's an easy position to stream as needed.
Cliff Avril returned to a part time role and looked good. Chris Clemons is on the verge of returning, Bruce Irvin will come off suspension shortly. Brandon Browner has missed the first two games with injury. Without those players, Seattle has restricted themselves to a well below average 39.5 tackle opportunities per game. That, plus the assist-heavy scoring in Seattle, doesn't bode well for the tackle upside of Bobby Wagner this year. That trend isn't likely to improve against Jacksonville at home this week. There's some big play upside with Wagner, but I'd try to move him in redraft leagues. Ray Lewis bucked a horrid tackle opportunity trend in Baltimore at times, but it's hard to bet on any Seattle defender doing the same.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Kion Wilson started for Larry Foote last week, but Vince Williams saw more snaps in rotation. Williams was around the ball, but his instincts were off in run support and he's not quick enough to have an impact in coverage. The value here will be at the safety position. Cincinnati's stat crew is assist-heavy and the four solo games from Lawrence Timmons, Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark were better than they appear. Timmons could use a better surrounding cast to keep him clean, but the numbers should be there on pure opportunity alone. Jarvis Jones got the start and two-thirds of the ROLB snaps last week. He rarely flashed in pass rush and wasn't great against the run but he did make five solos. That's a promising start for a rush linebacker.
Cincinnati's defensive line looks a little out of sync. Offensive lines are gameplanning differently this year, choosing to double team Geno Atkins inside and take their chances on Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson outside. Dunlap and Johnson are providing pressure but not converting and Atkins is still learning how to deal with double teams. We may see Atkins snap count decrease a bit, especially if Devon Still can make any impact in run defense. Dunlap and Johnson are an explosion waiting to happen. George Iloka again took every strong safety snap but there's no fantasy value to be had there.
Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our weekly IDP podcast here every Thursday for injury updates, player analysis and matchup discussion. Check my article page on Sunday morning for notes on every team's key injuries, depth chart changes and IDP expectations. Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel.
