defensive back TIERS
I'm continuing a early position-by-position look at IDP tiers for 2014 with the defensive backs this week.
Your tiers should be shallow in the offseason, even in deeper leagues. Unless a given IDP position is as scarce as offensive talent in your league, it's always better to carry a boom-bust offensive flyer over a replacement level defender or take up multiple bench spots with just above replacement level defenders.
The defensive back tier is more of a cloud this time of the year. You might consider some of these players elite, but my offseason philosophy with defensive backs is not to grow too attached. If there's a better use of a roster spot than holding a DB2, use it. And I rarely hold corners through the offseason as more than roster placeholders.
Therefore, at this point in fantasy calendar year, I'm generally tossing defensive backs into a single bucket -- safeties I'm willing to hold on my roster. This year, I was surprised to find that the list is nearly 20 players long. That's often not the case. Some of these players will likely fall off the list after free agency and the draft, but I'd hold them through the offseason unless there's an offensive talent or linebacker available with a startable ceiling.
Here they are in rough order of preference:
Harrison Smith, Kenny Vaccaro, Mark Barron, Eric Weddle, Jonathan Cyprien, Kam Chancellor, Morgan Burnett, Antrel Rolle, Eric Berry, Tyrann Mathieu, William Moore, Barry Church, Bernard Pollard, T.J. Ward, D.J. Swearinger, T.J. McDonald, Reshad Jones, Malcolm Jenkins, Antoine Bethea, Earl Thomas, Tyvon Branch, LaRon Landry, James Ihedigbo.
I'm also watching Da'Norris Searcy, Shamarko Thomas, Matt Elam, Phillip Thomas and Shaun Williams closely this offseason.
one good question
This will be the first full offseason with our upgraded content management system at Footballguys. The upgrades we made to our content production this year will allow us to do more offseason coverage than ever before. Features that were only possible as Forum threads previously -- coaching and scheme discussions, free agent breakdowns, every-down linebacker speculation, predraft scouting reports, in-depth reviews of up-and-coming defensive players and lots more -- will now be available as standalone or running features with regular updates.
With that in mind, I want to end the regular season with a preview of the offseason. Here's one good question I'd like to examine for each defense before training camp this summer.
Arizona -> Will the Cardinals re-sign Karlos Dansby? What's the most likely statistical ripple effect if they do not?
Atlanta -> Is Paul Worrilow the next underrecognized NFL linebacker talent or a product of his environment?
Baltimore -> Will the Ravens be able to coach Arthur Brown up enough to become the centerpiece of their defense?
Buffalo -> Will Mike Pettine get a head coaching job? Bonus: How good might Kiko Alonso be if he plays more disciplined?
Carolina -> What happens to the Carolina tackle opportunity if the Panthers upgrade the secondary to pair with an elite front seven?
Chicago -> Is Jonathan Bostic a long-term IDP value or just another athletic linebacker without much upside?
Cincinnati -> Will the Bengals add anyone to the back seven to challenge Vontaze Burfict for tackles? Does Vinny Rey get a shot?
Cleveland -> How will the Browns choose to deploy Barkevious Mingo? Is he the next big sack-heavy league breakout target?
Dallas -> Is Barry Church for real? Bonus: How will the Cowboys' defense change after (not if) Monte Kiffin is fired?
Denver -> Is there any trustworthy Broncos' defender? Wes Woodyard? Danny Trevathan? Duke Ihenacho? Quanterus Smith?
Detroit -> Just how good could a bookend of Ezekiel Ansah and Devin Taylor be? Will their progress be slowed if Jim Washburn leaves?
Green Bay -> Can any Green Bay defender play a full 16 game season?
Houston -> Will the Texans bring in a young linebacker to challenge Brian Cushing?
Indianapolis -> Will Jerrell Freeman remain the lone every-down linebacker?
Jacksonville -> Has Andre Branch finally begun to fulfill his pass-rushing promise after flashing during the second half?
Kansas City -> Can the 32-year old Derrick Johnson keep up his LB1 pace, especially if the Chiefs finally find another viable ILB?
Miami -> Will the Dolphins recognize that Dion Jordan is capable of a Von Miller like impact as a 4-3 OLB?
Minnesota -> Will Audie Cole get a chance to hold the middle linebacker job this offseason?
New England -> Who plays linebacker next year? Bonus: Is it possible for Chandler Jones to play 1000+ snaps again?
New Orleans -> Can Kenny Vaccaro be the next long term stud fantasy defensive back?
New York Giants -> Is 2014 finally the offseason in which the Giants make linebacker a priority? Bonus: Can Jason Pierre-Paul recover?
New York Jets -> What happens to Demario Davis (and David Harris and Quinton Coples) if Rex Ryan is fired?
Oakland -> Will Sio Moore be trusted with a full time role next year?
Philadelphia -> Who will free Brandon Graham?!?!?
Pittsburgh -> Can Vince Williams improve enough in coverage to earn an every-down role?
St. Louis -> How many tackles could Alec Ogletree run up if he played the run more consistently?
San Diego -> How will the Chargers use Melvin Ingram next year? Bonus: Will they trust Manti Te'o on passing downs?
San Francisco -> Will either Corey Lemonier or Tank Carradine work their way into significant snaps next year?
Seattle -> Should we start a petition to get the Seattle stat crew to bring its solo tackle counts in line with league averages?
Tampa Bay -> Can Adrian Clayborn or Mark Barron take the next step and become every-week IDP starters?
Tennessee -> Will the Titans decide exactly what they think of their linebackers or are they the next NYG-like mess?
Washington -> Who replaces London Fletcher? Bonus: What happens to the defensive scheme after Mike Shanahan is fired?
I'm looking forward to the offseason discussion. A very happy holiday week to everyone and safe travels to those away from home visiting family and friends.
Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our weekly IDP podcast here every Thursday for injury updates, player analysis and matchup discussion. Check my article page on Sunday morning for notes on every team's key injuries, depth chart changes and IDP expectations. Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel.