David Dodds has a long running feature series at Footballguys in which he opens his playbook and shows how he melds his knowledge of ADP, personal player evaluations and projections to have the "perfect draft." It's one of my favorite articles every August and it's served me extremely well over the years. And it's a concept that I enjoy applying to IDP leagues.
In truth, there's more than one path to having a perfect draft. It's the process of thinking through the possibilities that prepares you to have the best draft possible. So, let's talk process first, then apply the process to this year's player pool.
Pillars of Perfect Draft Strategy
1. Be aware of your league's parameters and competition.
You're a Footballguys Insider. You know this. But it bears repeating, especially since there is no single standard IDP scoring system. The perfect draft process, for me, relies on one part statistics, one part player evaluation and one part tier/ADP strategy. All three parts assume a precise understanding of your league's scoring system and a reasonable expectation about how your competition will value a given class of players.
2. Set up your draft board in tiers before the draft.
You can get an idea of how I do this in the positional tiers series we publish -- Sigmund Bloom (offense) and myself (defense) -- and update regularly during the preseason. I think using projections as a single data point or a list of players ranked 1-N is dangerous. You lose too much context. Your sixth ranked running back may be very close to the eleventh ranked running back in your mind. Or you may feel there's a significant tier break between your fourth and fifth ranked wide receiver.
Splitting your draft board into tiers allows you to see exactly where you stand at each position during the draft at a glance. It gives you maximum flexibility. You can identify smart relative values – i.e. there are eight RB2 available but only one TE1 left on my board, so it's better to take the TE. The flexibility within your tier list helps separate upside when needed – Player X is a big risk-reward as my RB14, but I want an upside player as the right foil for my safe, elite RB1, so he's a better fit than the RB9 right now. Perhaps most importantly, it limits the chances you'll get stuck on the wrong side of run or push the panic button in the middle of one in the heat of the draft.
You can define your tiers in any number of ways. I tend to be boring and split into categories like Elite RB, Strong RB1 with questions, High Upside RB2, High Floor RB2, and so on. Others might have catchier names (gold standard, silver dollar, etc.) or break them into round grades (1st round, 2nd round, 3rd-4th round, etc.). The key is to be true to the process so that you're not debating player values during the draft. If you know that you'll reach for a Eddie Lacy or T.Y. Hilton or Tyler Eifert before a given tier says you should, bump that player up a tier before you draft. But be prepared to live with the consequences of falling too hard for any given player.
3. Understand what ADP means.
Average draft position, right? The point at which Player X is generally going in relation to his peers and overall. Absolutely, but know what "average" means in this context. Some players may go 2-3 rounds earlier than current ADP, especially in late August when ADP values seemingly change from hour to hour. Remember that the ADP data is only as good as the last draft from which it was taken.
Here's where the art of the tier process and ADP strategy comes in. If your player analysis and projections says a player belongs a tier or more ahead of his current ADP, i.e. Player X is in the RB2+ tier on your board but carries and ADP of RB33, don't fuss over getting that player at "value." Why get stuck with a back ten slots and two tiers down your board because you waited until it was "correct" to draft him by ADP? If you trust your analysis, let your leaguemates point fingers and laugh when you "reach" for Player X. When you're right, as many were with Robert Griffin III III and Randall Cobb last year, Matthew Stafford and A.J. Green in 2011, Arian Foster and Hakeem Nicks in 2010 and Ray Rice in 2009, you'll be the one laughing when it matters.
The Perfect IDP Draft
Let's assume a twelve team league, with a standard QB-2RB-3WR-TE-PK offensive lineup, PPR scoring, a reasonably standard 2DE-3LB-2DB IDP setup with balanced scoring and roster sizes between 30 and 36. I'll also assume you'll be in a competitive draft where your leaguemates are preparing with more than an outdated magazine.
Scripting the Early Rounds
Using tiers allows you to remain flexible in your draft, but a good set of tiers should suggest a loose draft strategy for your first few rounds. My personal tiers suggest waiting as long as possible to draft a quarterback, erring on the side of running backs over wide receivers in the first five rounds and delaying your IDP selections.
More specifically, I'd suggest:
- Only consider Jimmy Graham or Calvin Johnson in the first round if there are no elite running backs available to you.
- Err on the side of drafting another running back in the second round and three in the first four rounds.
- Wait and target a quarterback after the seventh round, hoping for the last of Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III III, Andrew Luck and Tony Romo.
- Pass on J.J. Watt.
There are caveats to this early round script.
- I see a good argument for taking an elite wide receiver in the second round (A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall or Julio Jones) over a riskier running back (Chris Johnson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, etal.). I think the later running back tiers are too shallow this year to recommend a full Upside Down Draft approach, but the draw of an anchor wide receiver is strong.
- Be flexible enough to draft Drew Brees in the third round or later or Rob Gronkowski in the fourth round or later.
- Go ahead and draft J.J. Watt anytime after the third round if you think he can repeat his 2012 numbers. (Click here for a full discussion on the J.J. Watt question.)
For additional opinions on crafting your early round strategy, read Dodds' Perfect Draft series, Sigmund Bloom's offensive tier series and Matt Waldman's Gut Check series on Upside Down strategy and targets.
Weaving IDPs Into Your Perfect Draft
The primary focus of this article is to highlight the best places to weave in each IDP position and highlight the biggest IDP value relative to ADP. The details of this year's blueprint are slightly different than last year, when I recommended not drafting an IDP until the 10th round or later.
1. Get an elite defensive end to anchor your DL lineup.
Ensuring that you've rostered an elite defensive end has been the mainstay of my advice to those in an IDP redraft league for four years. The rest of the IDP world has now come around to this way of thinking, but you'll still see a run of linebackers after J.J. Watt goes off the board. As you'll see shortly, I'm going to recommend drafting a linebacker earlier than usual this year, but I strongly believe that your first IDP selection should be a defensive end.
Here are my current defensive line tiers. There are a number of upside defensive linemen I like this year, but the elite tier is again shallow. The tier feature will provide needed context for the players I'll recommend here.
Unless you're lucky enough to run into J.J. Watt in the sixth round or later, that means you should pencil in Cameron Wake or DeMarcus Ware as your eighth round pick. That's a round or two sooner than I usually recommend, but the rest of the elite tier has enough question marks to warrant the higher priority plays. If you miss out on either of those defensive ends, look to add both Chandler Jones (around the 10th round) and Osi Umenyiora (in the 12th or later).
If you miss on the elite tier defensive ends, the following players may outperform their current consensus ranking by a full tier or more. Target two of the these defensive ends between the 12th and 16th rounds. If you are able to draft an elite defensive end at value but miss on Jones or Umenyiora, target one of the following players as your DL2.
Those in deeper and more competitive leagues where the list above will run out before you can roster a third defensive end should look to draft Corey Wootton as your DL3.
If you're in a tackle-heavy league, you can wait until deep in your draft to grab a DL2 and DL3. Look to grab two of the following young and talented 3-4 ends with 45-6 potential:
2. Make sure you get an elite tier linebacker this year, then wait your leaguemates out and attack the LB2 with upside values.
In past seasons, I've strongly recommended waiting until 10-15 linebackers have been drafted and then quickly take three value linebackers from the second and third tiers. This year, while I'll highlight a handful of value linebackers in that tier, I'm not as confident that the group is as sure of hitting or deep enough to fill out your top three roster slots at linebacker.
You should still wait to draft your elite tier linebacker. That tier is deep enough that you can still wait 3-6 rounds after Luke Kuechly comes off the board before pulling the trigger. But the sweet spot this year is probably going to be the 9th through 11th round rather than the 11th through 13th round. While you wait, you should be attacking running back and wide receiver depth and securing that elite defensive end.
Here are my current linebacker tiers. There are 12 players in the elite tiers that I believe have a top 15 floor (including Daryl Washington on a per game basis after his suspension ends). Make sure you add one. In recent drafts, Derrick Johnson, Sean Lee and Lawrence Timmons have been the highest upside linebackers most likely to remain available after 7-8 are drafted.
After you secure your elite linebacker, it's time to wait out your leaguemates. Let them draft players like Sean Weatherspoon, London Fletcher, Dannell Ellerbe, Jerrell Freeman and in the next 2-4 rounds, then roster 2-4 of the following value linebackers after the 12th round.
- Mychal Kendricks (high ceiling)
- Bruce Carter (high ceiling)
- Demario Davis (high ceiling)
- Brad Jones (high floor)
- Daryl Smith (high floor)
- Nick Roach (high floor)
- Justin Houston (a must roster in big play scoring systems)
All of these players have 90 solo tackle upside with added big play value and are available at a discount by current ADP.
3. Target one elite defensive back. Only draft defensive backs from your elite tiers.
Before the advent of interchangeable safeties and the 3-4 defense, a stud in-the-box safety was a priority draft target as a surrogate LB2 you could plug into your DB1 lineup slot. As the league trended toward cover safeties with cornerback tackling ability, the 80 solo tackle DB all but disappeared. In 2007, only one defensive back had more than 80 solos and just two had 180 or more fantasy points (equal value to a mid-level LB2) in FBG's standard scoring system.
An influx of cover safeties with an interest in supporting the run has reversed that trend. But it's still easy to identify one or more safeties with clear stud potential that hold a consensus ranking well outside the top 15. And similar players declare themselves quickly after a couple of regular season games.
When you can, however, it's still a good idea to draft one of the final safeties left in your elite tier. In some years, you can wait to do so until the 15th round or later. In others, you may have to pop for one as early as the 12th or 13th round.
Here are my current defensive back tiers. The elite tiers are ranked in order of preference. Based on current consensus, you can expect to draft Tyvon Branch as your "elite" safety and Glover Quin (this year's George Wilson, Kam Chancellor breakout play) a few rounds later.
If you're league is competitive and you're unable to fill your roster slots with players from the top tiers, don't panic. The matchup cloud is huge again this year. If you see a player you think belongs in the DB1 upside tier, roster him. If not, you should plan to play matchups with your lineup slots until you find a player you don't want to release.
Under no circumstances should you roster a depth defensive back over any running back or wide receiver or linebacker with starting upside. Drafting Malcolm Jenkins or Dawan Landry over Keenan Allen or Markus Wheaton, for example, is a poor use of a roster slot.
4. Always err on the side of high upside rather than a high floor when drafting IDP depth.
A high floor is nice, but unless you've got a lineup full of studs, a high floor LB3 without any upside provides no relative advantage for your lineup against a good team. Rather than filling out your roster with a player like Lance Briggs, take a shot on Demario Davis.
See my tiers for a longer list of upside targets, but look for the following players as priority late round adds:
- Corey Wootton -- Prime DL3/DL4 target in all systems
- Akeem Dent -- LB5 with LB3+ upside
- Sio Moore -- LB5 with LB3+ upside
Executive Summary
- Err on the side of drafting three running backs in the first four rounds. Target wide receiver depth after that. Wait until at least eight quarterbacks have been drafted to take your quarterback starter.
- Let someone else draft J.J. Watt but reach for an elite defensive end in the eighth or ninth round.
- Make sure you get one elite linebacker, then wait to draft value and upside a few rounds later.
- Plan to take one elite defensive back between rounds 12 and 15.
Your loose draft script should look something like this:
Round 1: RB
Round 2: RB/WR
Round 3: RB/WR
Round 4: WR/RB
Round 5: WR/RB
Round 6: WR/RB/TE
Round 7: TE/QB
Round 8: Elite DL
Round 9: QB/TE
Round 10: Elite LB
Round 11-16: RB/WR depth, DL2, LB2, LB3, Elite S
Round 16+: Prioritize offensive depth, mix in value IDPs
That's it for this year. Make sure you're comfortable with your tiers before your draft starts and you'll be able to handle any curve balls your leaguemates leave hanging over the middle of the plate.
Best of luck with your IDP drafts. Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel or email bramel@footballguys.com.
