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NOTE: This column is a living document and will be updated throughout the morning. Major changes to the content will be in red. Check back often for additions as gameday inactives are announced and lineup / depth chart changes are reported. I'll also be retweeting those reports with quick bits of analysis, so make sure you're following @JeneBramel and checking my timeline on Twitter.
It's championship week in most fantasy leagues.
There is only one critical game-time decision (Maurice Jones-Drew), with the majority of the early week questionables (Aaron Rodgers, Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, etc.) already ruled out. The status of Adrian Peterson and Larry Fitzgerald is not yet fully clear, but all indications are that both will be active today. Like previous weeks, there's a long list of skill position players who are listed probable after an incomplete week of practice.
If you're looking at a close lineup decision this morning, a bit of general advice. First, trust your gut. It's gotten you this far and it's doubly painful to overthink a decision, go against your gut and be wrong. Second, unless you're a heavy favorite, err on the side of playing your highest upside option in close calls. You need points against another championship caliber team and the possibility of a 20+ point game (even if the downside is a 3-4 point game) is much more attractive than the surety of a 8 point game.
Best of luck this weekend and I'll have any major updates here as they happen.
adrian peterson | foot / groin | QUESTIONABLE
Peterson practiced Friday, which makes the report that Thursday was a day of treatment plausible. He's been allowed to bear weight on his midfoot sprain for over a week, took part in four of the last five workouts (Friday/Saturday last week, Wednesday/Friday this week) and says he's "ready to roll" today. I'm not 100% convinced that Peterson is healthy enough to take 20+ touches, but it's hard to bet against a player who's effectively played through a sports hernia, groin and hamstring injuries over the past 12 months.
Fantasy expectation: There's a risk of aggravation, a risk that the Vikings have already gameplanned to limit his carries and a risk that he'll struggle through his injury on the road against an above average Cincinnati front seven. But if he's active, it's very hard to recommend sitting him. Consider him a boom-bust RB1 today.
calvin johnson | knee | questionable
Johnson wasn't moving well at times Monday night and the Lions restricted his practice reps a little more than in recent weeks. Though he's listed questionable, there's been no report that the Lions are considering sitting him. The limited Friday practice is reassuring enough to me that we aren't going to see a surprise pregame report that Johnson is inactive again. But it's never a bad idea to have a hedge for a late game.
Fantasy expectation: Johnson is not 100%, but this is a must win game for Detroit at home against a floundering Giants' team. Use Johnson as you normally would.
1215 ET: Both Will Carroll and Adam Schefter are hearing that Johnson is a GTD and will be evaluated during warmups. I still believe he'll play, but do what you can to get a late game hedge in place in case this goes as it did in Week 5, when Johnson rumors started swirling on gameday and he was unable to play. If you're stuck, I wouldn't bench Johnson for a lesser early game option unless you'll be much more vexed by a late game zero from Calvin if he's inactive than a monster late game effort if you sit him and he plays. There's nothing brilliant in that analysis, but there's no reliable information coming until 230 ET.
larry fitzgerald | concussion | questionable
Fitzgerald was headed to an independent neurologist to gain clearance for contact after his second consecutive limited practice on Friday. That exam appears to have gone well. There are multiple reports this morning that Fitzgerald is expected to play.
Fantasy expectation: Arizona plays later this afternoon. There's a small risk of a setback in warmups, so have a hedge in place if you're planning to trust Fitzgerald despite the tough matchup in Seattle with a dinged up Carson Palmer. The matchup would be a much bigger concern for me than the injury if Fitzgerald is active.
maurice jones-drew | groin | questionable
Both Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter are reporting this morning that Jones-Drew is expected to play today barring a setback during warmups. Jones-Drew was a surprise full Friday practice participant after not practicing since his injury two and a half weeks ago. Take that listing with a grain of salt as beat writers didn't see him on the field during the open portion of practice, but it looks likely that he'll be active today. Whether he can be effective or avoid an aggravation without only a single practice is an open question.
Fantasy expectation: I'd be leery of Jones-Drew today. The trend is positive, but he's still in the early stages of regaining strength and conditioning from a hamstring strain that kept him out of practice for over two weeks. Consider him a boom-bust RB2 / flex play.
ray rice | thigh | questionable
Rice has been struggling through hip and now thigh issues for most of the season. He's listed questionable but practiced on Thursday and Friday and is much closer to probable than doubtful today.
Fantasy expectation: There's risk with Rice and the late afternoon start, but I think he's safe to consider a low ceiling RB2.
t.y. hilton | shoulder | questionable
Hilton has been dealing with a shoulder injury for nearly a month and told reporters it has been painful to play through despite his first productive game in a month last week. I thought it looked like an AC sprain on replay then, which is an injury that can limit a receiver's ability to beat a jam at the line of scrimmage and reach for balls away from their body. There are no indications that Hilton will sit today, but it's a tough matchup on the road against Brandon Flowers and company in Kansas City.
Fantasy expectation: Hilton is a tough call today. The matchup would be concerning even if he were healthy. Given the wide range of expectation here, I think I'd consider Hilton only if I were a heavy underdog and needed a high ceiling WR3 or my other options were equally concerning.
joe flacco | knee | questionable
Flacco will play today with a brace to stabilize the MCL on his front leg. That could affect his accuracy, but he's had a week to get used to the brace and shouldn't be a major issue.
Fantasy expectation: Flacco has upside against the Patriot secondary, but he's a boom-bust QB1 at best.
Best of luck in your fantasy games this weekend. I'll be back on Monday morning to review all the Week 16 injuries in the Injury Rounds column. Follow me on Twitter @JeneBramel for breaking news and analysis during the games today.
