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Dynasty, in Theory: Many Happy Returns

Adam Harstad - September 16, 2017

You shouldn't buy low and sell high because we're bad at knowing whose value will go up and whose will go down. Except for this guy. His is definitely going up.

Regression Alert #1: Hunting for Outliers

Adam Harstad - September 15, 2017

Can we use a knowledge of history and statistics to sell high and buy low on players with minimal risk? We can. And we will.

The Problem with Expert Mock Drafts

Adam Harstad - August 24, 2017

Expert Mocks, or Industry Mocks, can be fun and insightful tools... if you're careful not to fall for the wrong takeaways.

A Quick Guide to the Waiver and Trade Dominator

Adam Harstad - August 12, 2017

A quick guide to the Waiver and Trade Dominator, from getting it set up to digging into the deepest and most compelling features.

Ezekiel Elliott and How to Value Suspended Players

Adam Harstad - August 7, 2017

A quick and dirty trick for adjusting player values on the fly in the face of early-season suspensions or injuries.

A Quick Guide to the Lineup Dominator

Adam Harstad - August 5, 2017

A quick guide to the Lineup Dominator, from getting it set up to digging into the deepest and most compelling features.

Skill, Luck, and ADP

Adam Harstad - July 13, 2017

Thoughts on how simply being average can be a path to success in fantasy football.

How to Use MyFBG

Adam Harstad - July 12, 2017

MyFBG is an incredibly powerful and versatile tool for winning your leagues and reclaiming your free time. Here's a step-by-step guide to setting it up so you can start benefiting today.

The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 11

Adam Harstad - November 20, 2016

A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge.

The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 10

Adam Harstad - November 12, 2016

A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge.

Fantasy, in Theory: Tiny Edges

Adam Harstad - November 12, 2016

A few easy ways to chase extra fractions of a win throughout the season

The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 9

Adam Harstad - November 6, 2016

A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge.

Dynasty, in Theory: Age is Just a Number

Adam Harstad - November 6, 2016

Musings on the importance of avoiding a false sense of certainty.

Fantasy, in Theory: Stop Fixing Your Roster

Adam Harstad - October 29, 2016

Every team has holes. They probably won't sink you. Don't commit fantasy malpractice in the name of filling them.

The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 8

Adam Harstad - October 29, 2016

A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge.

The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 7

Adam Harstad - October 22, 2016

A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge.

Dynasty, in Theory: No One is Worth Four Firsts

Adam Harstad - October 22, 2016

A rule of thumb for valuing top-end stars in dynasty leagues.

Fantasy, in Theory: Bayes and Bob

Adam Harstad - October 15, 2016

Using Bayesian Inference to improve our predictions, (and also: Bob Henry is pretty good).

Dynasty Value Charts: Week 6

Adam Harstad - October 15, 2016

Dynasty value charts in both Standard and PPR scoring

The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 6

Adam Harstad - October 14, 2016

A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge.

The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 5

Adam Harstad - October 8, 2016

A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge.

Fantasy, in Theory: Revisiting Preseason Expectations

Adam Harstad - October 8, 2016

Comparing the reliability of early-season performance to average draft position when predicting scoring for the rest of the season.

The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 4

Adam Harstad - October 1, 2016

A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge.

Dynasty, in Theory: A Thought Experiment to Ruin Your Day

Adam Harstad - October 1, 2016

Are your beliefs mutually incompatible? And if so, what do you do about it? Here's a simple thought experiment to potentially ruin your day.

Dynasty Value Charts: Week 4

Adam Harstad - October 1, 2016

Dynasty value charts in both Standard and PPR scoring

Dynasty, in Theory: What Happens When You Assume?

Adam Harstad - September 24, 2016

Little changes in our underlying assumptions can result in big changes in our final results.

The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 3

Adam Harstad - September 22, 2016

A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge.

Fantasy in Theory: Fantasy is Weird

Adam Harstad - September 17, 2016

There should be nothing quite as expected as an unexpected result.

Dynasty Value Charts: Week 2

Adam Harstad - September 16, 2016

Dynasty value charts in both Standard and PPR scoring

The Quarterback Streaming Challenge: Week 2

Adam Harstad - September 16, 2016

A look in at the current state of the Quarterback Streaming Challenge.

Getting the Most Out of a Footballguys Subscription

Adam Harstad - August 31, 2016

So you subscribed to Footballguys... now what? Here's a quick guide to getting the most out of your subscription.

Troubleshooting MyFBG

Adam Harstad - August 31, 2016

Simple steps for resolving issues with MyFBG, and contact information for support in case they fail.

On Le'Veon Bell, Risk, and Substances of Abuse

Adam Harstad - August 25, 2016

Le'Veon Bell's recent suspension and appeal give us plenty of information about what kind of risks he presents going forward. But are we taking away the appropriate lessons?

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 16

Adam Harstad - December 26, 2015

Dynasty Value Charts for PPR and Standard scoring for both likely and unlikely 2016 Playoff Teams

Dynasty, in Theory: Random is Random

Adam Harstad - December 26, 2015

On Finding the Noise in the Signal

Dynasty, in Practice: Ageification, Youthification

Adam Harstad - December 26, 2015

A long-term look at aging patterns at running back and wide receiver, and a discussion of expectations going forward.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 15

Adam Harstad - December 19, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Dynasty, in Practice: If Not Streaming, Then What?

Adam Harstad - December 19, 2015

In real-world situations, playing matchups doesn't result in increased production. So what is the alternative?

Dynasty, in Theory: You'll Never Stand in the Same Stream Twice

Adam Harstad - December 19, 2015

How effective is starting second-tier players against favorable matchups?

Dynasty, in Theory: On Being the Right Size

Adam Harstad - December 12, 2015

Or: "Why You Shouldn't Drop Mike Evans Down a Mine Shaft"

Dynasty, in Practice: Conditional Lineup Requests

Adam Harstad - December 12, 2015

Discussing my favorite rule in fantasy football.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 14

Adam Harstad - December 11, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 13

Adam Harstad - December 5, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Dynasty, in Practice: Coaches are Smart

Adam Harstad - November 29, 2015

A defense of a profession that is frequently under fire.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 12

Adam Harstad - November 28, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Dynasty, in Theory: How to Buy a Championship at the Trade Deadline

Adam Harstad - November 26, 2015

A step-by-step look at a foolproof method for buying a dynasty championship before the trade deadline.

Dynasty, in Theory: WYSINATI

Adam Harstad - November 21, 2015

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 11

Adam Harstad - November 20, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 10

Adam Harstad - November 14, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Dynasty, in Theory: Some Statistics are Better than Others

Adam Harstad - November 14, 2015

When evaluating player performance, it's only natural to emphasize some statistics over others. Let's make sure that we're emphasizing the right ones.

Dynasty, in Theory: Trash Money Records

Adam Harstad - November 7, 2015

A look at DeAndre Hopkins and other garbage-time superstars.

Dynasty, in Practice: Dented Aluminum Cans

Adam Harstad - November 7, 2015

A case for buying your groceries at a discount.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 9

Adam Harstad - November 6, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Dynasty, in Theory: Stop Buying Low and Selling High

Adam Harstad - October 31, 2015

There are better ways to build your roster.

Dynasty, in Practice: Touchdowns Really Do Follow Yards. (Yards Still Don't Follow Back.)

Adam Harstad - October 31, 2015

A re-examination of the hypothesis that touchdowns follow yards.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 8

Adam Harstad - October 30, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Dynasty, in Practice: A Trading Triptych

Adam Harstad - October 24, 2015

A trio of trade questions that serve as a launching point for a discussion of trading philosophies.

Dynasty, in Theory: Where Analytics Fail

Adam Harstad - October 23, 2015

Analytics is a very powerful way to gain new insight into the world. Sometimes it goes wrong.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 7)

Adam Harstad - October 22, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Dynasty, in Practice: Touchdowns Follow Yards, (But Yards Don't Follow Back)

Adam Harstad - October 17, 2015

A real-world example of "regression to the mean" at work.

Dynasty, in Theory: Playing to Win the Game?

Adam Harstad - October 16, 2015

Herm Edwards famously said that you play to win the game. Do you? Should you?

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts: Week 6)

Adam Harstad - October 15, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Dynasty, in Theory: Revisiting Preseason Expectations

Adam Harstad - October 10, 2015

Comparing the predictive power of preseason ADP to early-season performance.

Dynasty, in Practice: Predicting Stretch Performances

Adam Harstad - October 10, 2015

Making predictions about order of finish over the final twelve weeks to evaluate after the season.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts (Week 5)

Adam Harstad - October 9, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Dynasty, in Practice: Power Laws. (They're Not What They Sound Like.)

Adam Harstad - October 3, 2015

Examining the distribution of player performance and making another case for concentrating value.

Dynasty, in Theory: Pay Attention. Focus. Concentrate.

Adam Harstad - October 3, 2015

A simple mantra to aid in building a dominant team.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts (Week 4)

Adam Harstad - October 1, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Dynasty, in Theory: Winning the Informational Arms Race

Adam Harstad - September 26, 2015

How to overcome fixed roster limits and increase the odds that you're holding tomorrow's breakout player today.

Dynasty, in Practice: Creating a Cohesive Vision for Your Roster

Adam Harstad - September 26, 2015

How to use intentional roster management techniques to ensure that every part of your team is working in harmony.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts (Week 3)

Adam Harstad - September 24, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Dynasty, in Practice: Six Simple Rules for Trading Draft Picks

Adam Harstad - September 18, 2015

A look at six easy-to-apply heuristics for how to maximize value in trades involving rookie draft picks.

Dynasty, in Theory: So Money (and They Don't Even Know It)

Adam Harstad - September 18, 2015

Discussing the existence of a universal currency hidden inside superficially barter-based dynasty leagues.

Contender/Rebuilder Dynasty Value Charts

Adam Harstad - September 18, 2015

Dynasty value charts for contenders, rebuilders, and balanced owners in both standard and PPR scoring.

Dynasty, in Practice: How to Value Players in Dynasty

Adam Harstad - September 12, 2015

A new method for estimating long-term player value in dynasty leagues.

Dynasty, in Theory: The Difference Between Contending and Rebuilding

Adam Harstad - September 8, 2015

Using game theory and economics to explain the different preferences of rebuilding and contending teams.

Dynasty, in Practice: How do Quarterbacks Age?

Adam Harstad - September 6, 2015

An attempt to model quarterback aging patterns based on 30 years of historical data.

Dynasty, in Practice: How do Tight Ends Age?

Adam Harstad - September 6, 2015

An attempt to model tight end aging patterns based on 30 years of historical data.

Dynasty, in Practice: How Do Wide Receivers Age?

Adam Harstad - September 5, 2015

An attempt to model wide receiver aging patterns based on 30 years of historical data.

Dynasty, in Practice: How Do Running Backs Age?

Adam Harstad - September 5, 2015

An attempt to model running back aging patterns based on 30 years of historical data.

Unconventional Draft Strategy: The Week 1 Bye

Adam Harstad - August 29, 2015

A counterintuitve, (and borderline crazy), draft strategy to help boost your chances of winning a championship.

Getting the Most Out of a Footballguys Subscription

Adam Harstad - August 16, 2015

So you subscribed to Footballguys... now what? Here's a quick guide to getting the most out of your subscription.

We're Probably Thinking about Age the Wrong Way

Adam Harstad - August 10, 2015

Do current aging models accurately depict what really happens in the NFL? Is there perhaps a better way?

How Much Does Tougher Coverage Impact a Receiver?

Adam Harstad - August 7, 2015

A look at how tougher coverages impact a receiver's production, with a special eye towards DeAndre Hopkins in the wake of the Arian Foster injury news.

Another Perspective on Running Back Workloads

Adam Harstad - August 6, 2015

Examining historical evidence to see if there's any hope for high-workload running backs going forward.

Calculating New Positional Baselines

Adam Harstad - August 4, 2015

Taking real-world worst starter baselines and generalizing them to other league setups.

Dynasty, in Theory: Is PPR Scoring Suitable for Dynasty?

Adam Harstad - August 2, 2015

Does PPR scoring do a good job of rewarding good players at the expense of bad ones in dynasty leagues?

A Better Way to Determine VBD Baselines

Adam Harstad - July 31, 2015

A rigorous analysis of what, exactly, "worst starter" really means in actual fantasy leagues.

Rethinking VBD

Adam Harstad - July 29, 2015

Revisiting the method in which we calculate a player's value.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Big Receivers

Adam Harstad - April 8, 2015

Understanding statistical inference and applying that knowledge to the WR size debate.

It's Not the Size, (It's How You Use It)

Adam Harstad - March 4, 2015

Some opening thoughts on the importance of size when evaluating receivers.