Matchup Analysis: Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Eagles 21, Chiefs 25

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Philadelphia Eagles Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Eagles Offense30.0 (+9.8) (4)58 (-34) (24)298 (+77) (5)
Chiefs Defense27.0 (+6.8) (26)124 (+31) (24)247 (+26) (19)

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Chiefs Offense42.0 (+21.8) (2)185 (+92) (2)352 (+131) (1)
Eagles Defense17.0 (-3.2) (11)64 (-28) (12)200 (-20) (17)

Eagles Rushing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

Doug Pederson’s background as a run-dominant coordinator is still being defied here in Philadelphia. Over 17 games, his Eagles have run the ball on just 40.5% of their snaps, markedly less often than his Kansas City offenses ever did. That’s probably due to necessity, and probably for the best; this group of runners looks as sluggish and uninspiring as they come. There’s plenty of volume, as Pederson’s Eagles run at a higher snap pace than Kansas City did, but not much dynamism at all. LeGarrette Blount mustered just 46 yards on 14 Week 1 carries and converting on only 1 of his 4 short-yardage rushes. As preseason whispers suggested, perhaps he may not be long for this offense. Still, Wendell Smallwood was somehow even less impressive, turning his 4 rushes into all of 4 yards. The fact that this lack of production has come behind this elite front line is unacceptably bad – and star left tackle Jason Peters may be limited this week by a groin injury. Blount will likely lead this middling group for the foreseeable future, but regardless of the pecking order here, the weekly floor looks exceptionally low.

Aside from allowing three short touchdowns, the Kansas City defense held its own beautifully against the Patriots in Week 1. New England lead back Mike Gillislee managed just 3.0 yards per carry, far below the norm for Tom Brady’s offense, as Kansas City’s athletic, attacking front seven had its way. Against Philadelphia, they’ll deal with a stronger line than New England’s but a far less dynamic backfield. In other words, the gaps caused by Kansas City’s aggressiveness will be less exploitable with LeGarrette Blount wheezing through them.

Eagles Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Chiefs defense.

Carson Wentz was great in Week 1, but we’ve seen that movie: Wentz started his rookie 2016 red-hot but fell off mightily after 3 games. He failed to throw downfield with any precision and struggled to convert in the red zone. This Kansas City unit is an exceptionally tall task for Wentz, who’s built most of his young-career success against poor pass defenses like Washington’s. The good news is that Wentz now appears to be surrounded by playmakers. Slot man Nelson Agholor and tight end Zach Ertz were dynamic last week, and Torrey Smith stretched the defense vertically – all while Alshon Jeffery wasn’t even heard from in blanket coverage. All in all, his Week 1 was an encouraging step forward, but we still have to expect inconsistency – and an iffy statistical ceiling. Wentz remains shaky on the deep ball and has yet to establish much timing with his new weaponry. There will be room to beat the aggressive Kansas City defense, especially on deep balls. But Wentz will have to elevate his own downfield game to take advantage.

This is just about as tough a matchup as Carson Wentz could draw. He’s still working to develop accuracy and ball placement, and he’ll take on the defense that led the NFL in interceptions and allowed the second-lowest completion rate in 2016. It’s the same defense that stymied Tom Brady in Week 1, pressuring him mercilessly while erasing Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan from the landscape. Wentz and Alshon Jeffery will need to develop creative ways to beat the ballhawking coverage of Marcus Peters, and even inside targets Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz face difficult matchups.

Chiefs Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Eagles defense.

Kareem Hunt is the talk of the fantasy world, of course, after shredding the Patriots to open the 2017 season. Hunt racked up 246 scrimmage yards on just 22 touches, averaging a silly 8.71 per rush. He’ll probably never be that good again, but why not? Hunt’s explosiveness and open-field speed last Thursday weren’t necessarily flukes. He averaged a stout 6.32 yards per rush as a workhorse at Toledo, with 44 touchdowns on the ground. The dual-threat dynamism wasn’t oddball, either – Hunt caught 41 passes for 403 yards as a senior. A quick, patient gap-shooter, he’s an ideal runner in Kansas City’s scheme, which incorporates plenty of zone blocking to create space. (Hunt looks like a sizeable upgrade in this sense on Spencer Ware, who was a fairly lumbering power back.) This offensive line is built for that type of blocking, so Hunt seems primed to keep rolling more weeks than not. It would be foolhardy to project a run at 250 scrimmage yards again, but fair to expect him to maximize his opportunity and produce alongside most of the top 10 fantasy backs.

The Eagles’ strong 2016 run defense carried over into Week 1 of 2017, so rookie sensation Kareem Hunt won’t have an easy time replicating his debut. The Eagles allowed just nine rushing touchdowns last year, and only nine teams allowed more overall fantasy points to backs. That said, they’re not invincible, and they can be beaten on the ground. Late last season, 3 zone-blocking teams (Washington, Baltimore, N.Y. Giants) posted consecutive successful games against Philadelphia, averaging 124.0 ground yards and running for 3 touchdowns. Granted, the Eagles shut down the Washington running backs just last week (34 yards on 13 rushes), so they’re certainly not some rock-solid opponent to target. It’s just worth noting that Kansas City’s blocking strength – and that of their dazzling new lead back – works against what the Eagles run defense typically offers.

Chiefs Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Eagles defense.

Smith’s pair of 70+ yard touchdown throws were stunning, but not out of this world – he’s a better deep-ball placer than he’s given credit for. Last year he finished 12th among regular quarterbacks in completion rate beyond 20 yards; the fact that he often chooses not to throw downfield doesn’t invalidate his relative success when he does. Now that he’s armed with an electrifying deep threat in Tyreek Hill, we’re seeing the chunks of dynamism in Smith we’ve always laughed at. Hill is a true spark plug, moved all over the formation to create mismatches, and he’s utilized both underneath and down the field. Few NFL cornerbacks can handle his sub-4.3 speed one-on-one, and front sevens across the league are up nights trying to corral his backfield and horizontal games. All told, Smith’s ceiling may be capped by volume – Week 1 represented just his 7th 300-yard passing day over 13 NFL seasons. But he and Andy Reid are adept at tweaking a play to find the mismatch, so there’s a lot more vitality in this passing game than many think. And Smith’s supporting weapons – Hill, tight end extraordinaire Travis Kelce, rookie running back Kareem Hunt – all boast strong weekly ceilings as a result.

With new coordinator Jim Schwartz on board, the Eagles pass defense has improved mightily since finishing 28th in passing defense in 2015. They rose to 13th last year and intercepted 16 passes along the way, and they kicked off 2017 in solid fashion, stifling Kirk Cousins and the Washington passing game in Week 1. Cousins managed just 5.38 adjusted yards per attempt and committed 3 turnovers. The Eagles registered 4 sacks on the day and snuffed out a crucial second-half drive by intercepting Cousins in the end zone. Boasting a deep, dynamic pass rush and playmakers in the secondary like Malcolm Jenkins and Jalen Mills, they’ll be a weekly headache for opposing offenses interested in holding onto the ball.

Chiefs vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9T (-4.5)9T (-4.5)9 (-4.2)9 (-5.1)
1Tom Brady8116362670020013.413.410.710.7

Carson Wentz (FanDuel: $7300, DraftKings: $5900)

1@ WAS68263930721460232319.923.9
2PROJ-Dodds27372711.51.1390.119.919.919.9 (H=48)19.9 (H=60)
2PROJ-Tremblay24392681.41.24110. (H=49)20.1 (H=61)
2PROJ-Bloom23372281.413110.117.717.717.7 (H=39)17.7 (H=49)

Chiefs vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+15.0)28 (+13.3)28 (+14.3)26 (+12.8)
1Mike Gillislee2415453000022.522.522.522.5
1James White4310380533006.

LeGarrette Blount (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4400)

1@ WAS2314460111110.711.711.211.7
2PROJ-Dodds14610.41609.110.19.6 (H=15)10.1 (H=24)
2PROJ-Tremblay14600.31808.69.69.1 (H=14)9.6 (H=22)
2PROJ-Bloom14510.51408.59.59.0 (H=14)9.5 (H=22)

Darren Sproles (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $3900)

1@ WAS33220854304.
2PROJ-Dodds3100.15360.26.411.48.9 (H=16)11.4 (H=34)
2PROJ-Tremblay290.16480.16.912.99.9 (H=20)12.9 (H=43)
2PROJ-Bloom3140.14270. (H=11)9.3 (H=24)

Wendell Smallwood (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ WAS1544011500.
2PROJ-Dodds4190.11703.24.23.7 (H=4)4.2 (H=6)
2PROJ-Tremblay4180.11803.24.23.7 (H=4)4.2 (H=6)
2PROJ-Bloom390.10001.51.51.5 (H=0)1.5 (H=1)

Chiefs vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+2.6)18 (+1.3)19 (+2.1)20 (+3.8)
1Danny Amendola3276100000010.
1Brandin Cooks67738800008.811.810.311.8

Alshon Jeffery (FanDuel: $6900, DraftKings: $5700)

1@ WAS60733800003.
2PROJ-Dodds5610.40008.513.511.0 (H=18)13.5 (H=31)
2PROJ-Tremblay4560.30007.411.49.4 (H=14)11.4 (H=23)
2PROJ-Bloom4520.40007.611.69.6 (H=14)11.6 (H=24)

Nelson Agholor (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4400)

1@ WAS428686100014.620.617.620.6
2PROJ-Dodds4450.30006.310.38.3 (H=14)10.3 (H=25)
2PROJ-Tremblay3430.20005.58.57.0 (H=10)8.5 (H=18)
2PROJ-Bloom5450.30006.311.38.8 (H=15)11.3 (H=30)

Torrey Smith (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $3600)

1@ WAS4831300000343.54.0
2PROJ-Dodds3370.20004.97.96.4 (H=9)7.9 (H=19)
2PROJ-Tremblay2280.10003.45.44.4 (H=5)5.4 (H=10)
2PROJ-Bloom2360.30005.47.46.4 (H=9)7.4 (H=17)

Chiefs vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10 (-3.2)8 (-5.5)9 (-4.4)8 (-5.6)
1Rob Gronkowski78623303.

Zach Ertz (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $5300)

1@ WAS60889309.317.313.317.3
2PROJ-Dodds5510.36.911.99.4 (H=15)11.9 (H=27)
2PROJ-Tremblay5570.37.512.510.0 (H=17)12.5 (H=29)
2PROJ-Bloom6560.37.413.410.4 (H=18)13.4 (H=33)

Trey Burton (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ WAS140000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom1800.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=2)

Brent Celek (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ WAS25211101.
2PROJ-Dodds1800. (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay1110. (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom000000.00.0 (H=0)

Chiefs vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+2.0)19T (+2.0)18T (+1.0) (+0.0)
1Stephen Gostkowski2233999.00.0

Jake Elliott (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $--)


Chiefs vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16T (-2.4)16T (-2.4)3 (-7.6)3 (-7.6)
1New England Patriots4253730100551.01.0

Philadelphia Eagles (FanDuel: $4400, DraftKings: $2900)

1@ WAS17.0026441301242422.022.0
2PROJ-Dodds25.303562.20.80.600. (H=12)6.9 (H=19)
2PROJ-Tremblay25.753632.210.600. (H=13)7.2 (H=21)

Eagles vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (+0.2)14 (+0.2)11 (-3.3)13 (-2.2)
1Kirk Cousins63234024011430018.018.011.613.6

Alex Smith (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $5700)

1@ NE6928353684053034.734.731.034.0
2PROJ-Dodds23342601.50.94110.220.420.420.4 (H=51)20.4 (H=65)
2PROJ-Tremblay21342501.71360.320.720.720.7 (H=52)20.7 (H=66)
2PROJ-Bloom22322301.40.74110. (H=41)18.1 (H=52)

Eagles vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-2.9)10T (-4.6)12T (-3.6)10T (-5.1)
1Chris Thompson303405452111.615.613.615.6
1Rob Kelley331030010003.

Kareem Hunt (FanDuel: $7800, DraftKings: $6800)

1@ NE401714815598242.647.643.149.6
2PROJ-Dodds16730.64270. (H=31)18.2 (H=44)
2PROJ-Tremblay16760.52200.213.815.814.8 (H=27)15.8 (H=35)
2PROJ-Bloom17740.53210. (H=26)16.1 (H=36)

Charcandrick West (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ NE24121111408.
2PROJ-Dodds4170.211003.94.94.4 (H=5)4.9 (H=7)
2PROJ-Tremblay3110.11702.43.42.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom3110.11702.43.42.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=4)

Anthony Sherman (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ NE120000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay1400000.40.40.4 (H=0)0.4 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Eagles vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-3.5)15 (-0.8)14 (-4.0)15 (-2.3)
1Terrelle Pryor531166600006.612.69.612.6
1Ryan Grant37646100006.

Tyreek Hill (FanDuel: $7200, DraftKings: $6200)

1@ NE5087133125019.826.823.329.8
2PROJ-Dodds5680.41100.110.815.813.3 (H=24)15.8 (H=38)
2PROJ-Tremblay5770.4212011.316.313.8 (H=26)16.3 (H=40)
2PROJ-Bloom6650.4270. (H=24)16.2 (H=40)

Albert Wilson (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3300)

1@ NE40553700003.
2PROJ-Dodds3320.20004.47.45.9 (H=8)7.4 (H=19)
2PROJ-Tremblay3370.20004.97.96.4 (H=10)7.9 (H=21)
2PROJ-Bloom3280.10003.46.44.9 (H=6)6.4 (H=15)

Chris Conley (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3200)

1@ NE65424300004.
2PROJ-Dodds2280.10003.45.44.4 (H=5)5.4 (H=11)
2PROJ-Tremblay2300.20004.26.25.2 (H=7)6.2 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom2310.20004.36.35.3 (H=7)6.3 (H=15)

DeAnthony Thomas (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ NE811-201400.
2PROJ-Dodds11300001.32.31.8 (H=1)2.3 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay1110.11402.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=4)

Eagles vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11 (-2.9)12 (-2.2)12 (-2.6)12 (-2.3)
1Jordan Reed55853603.

Travis Kelce (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5100)

1@ NE67754004.
2PROJ-Dodds5630.59.314.311.8 (H=21)14.3 (H=39)
2PROJ-Tremblay6580.58.814.811.8 (H=21)14.8 (H=41)
2PROJ-Bloom5640.59.414.411.9 (H=21)14.4 (H=39)

Demetrius Harris (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ NE26221517.
2PROJ-Dodds190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay1100. (H=1)2.6 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom2140.1243.0 (H=2)4.0 (H=8)

Eagles vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-2.0)10T (-2.0)10T (-3.0) (+0.0)
1Dustin Hopkins1122555.00.0

Eagles vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+4.6)24 (+4.6)22T (+3.4)22T (+3.4)
1Washington Redskins3035621101121212.012.0

Kansas City Chiefs (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2900)

1@ NE27.0037130000333.03.0
2PROJ-Dodds20.803552.31.10.700. (H=18)8.7 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay20.753702.51.20.700. (H=23)9.9 (H=36)