Matchup Analysis: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Titans 22, Jaguars 20

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Tennessee Titans Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Titans Offense16.0 (-4.2) (23)95 (+2) (12)255 (+34) (11)
Jaguars Defense7.0 (-13.2) (6)93 (+0) (20)110 (-110) (3)

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Jaguars Offense29.0 (+8.8) (5)155 (+62) (4)125 (-95) (28)
Titans Defense26.0 (+5.8) (25)109 (+16) (22)250 (+29) (20)

Titans Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

The Titans running backs got off to a slow start in 2017, averaging only 3.8 yards per carry for a total of 69 yards between both Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry. The Titans offense had an uncharacteristically pass-heavy game script against the Raiders with 41 pass attempts to only 21 rushes as they failed to secure a lead at any point. Murray out-snapped Henry 47 to 18, as Henry was brought in primarily for short yardage situations with only one complete series to himself. While healthy, Murray is still the primary running back for this offense.

The Jaguars defense dominated the Texans on all fronts last week, holding them to only 203 yards of total offense and one touchdown. The Jaguars defensive line clearly won the trenches here, putting consistent pressure on the quarterback while holding Lamar Miller to only 65 yards on 17 carries. New addition Calais Campbell was very impressive in his Jaguars debut, albeit much more via his pass rush than his run stopping ability due to his presence on the outside. Both Abry Jones and Dante Fowler Jr also played large roles in defending the run, while linebacker Myles Jack accounted for eight tackles and three run stops. To the Texans credit, they were without star left tackle Duane Brown, which caused a severe downgrade to that unit as a whole. The overall game script was not at all conducive to rushing the ball either, as they were down 19-0 at halftime. This week, the Jaguars face a much tougher test against the top-rated Titans offensive line, which should give us a true picture of how this team really stacks up against the run.

Titans Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Jaguars defense.

The Titans threw the ball a whopping 41 times in Week 1 against the Raiders. This was a significant uptick in passing for Marcus Mariota, who averaged 30 pass attempts per game in 2016 with only two games above 40 attempts. Titans receivers were getting open often last week, making a number of chunk plays against the Raiders secondary. Corey Davis and Rishard Matthews had productive outings, Delanie Walker looked very solid here as well racking up a team-leading seven receptions for 76 yards. While Mariota made some bad reads here and there, he moved the ball well overall for most of the game. Where the Titans uncharacteristically struggled here was in red-zone efficiency. After finishing first in the NFL with a 72% red zone touchdown rate last season, the Titans converted a touchdown on only one of three opportunities last week.

The Jaguars pass defense took complete advantage of the Houston offense last week, making for a very long day for most of the Texans offensive players. They held the Texans passers to only 110 combined passing yards while forcing one interception and three fumbles. Calais Campbell was a monster on the edge in his Jaguars debut, racking up five sacks with one hit and one hurry on the quarterback. This week, Campbell should draw a much more difficult matchup against Titans All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin. The Titans will also have their hands full with this secondary, as the Jaguars have a couple of elite cornerbacks in Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye—both of whom did a solid job limiting Deandre Hopkins to only a 44% catch rate in Week 1.

Jaguars Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Titans defense.

In his NFL debut, Leonard Fournette was a volume workhorse as he rushed for 100 yards and a touchdown. Fournette was very heavily utilized as he led the NFL with rush attempts (26) in Week 1. Fournette was also involved in the passing game, hauling in three catches on three targets for 24 yards. The game script in Week 1 was very favorable Fournette and crew, as the Jaguars got out to a 19-0 lead by halftime which yielded to quite a few run plays later in the game. While Chris Ivory spelled Fournette at times, rushing nine times for 42 yards, Fournette clearly appears to be the lead back for this offense.

The Titans played a solid game overall on the defensive side of the ball, however, they did not look as sharp as expected against the run, allowing Marshawn Lynch to break off a number of chunk plays with his powerful running style. Jurrell Casey uncharacteristically struggled while the Titans linebackers had to gang tackle Lynch on multiple occasions. This week, the Titans defensive draws a much more favorable matchup than the Raiders elite offensive line. The Jaguars offensive line was ranked near the bottom coming into the season by Footballguys offensive line specialist Matt Bitonti. Despite enabling Fournette to rush for 100 yards, most of that production came from the sheer volume as Fournette still only managed 3.8 yards per attempt.

Jaguars Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Titans defense.

The Jaguars passing attack showed us much of what they did last season, minus the turnovers, in Week 1 against the Texans. To their credit, it was a very tough matchup against a stout defense—and they did what was needed to hold on to the win, but it was a statistically horrifying performance for fantasy purposes. Blake Bortles completed only 52% of his 21 pass attempts for 125 yards and a lone passing touchdown to fullback Tommy Bohanon. Allen Hurns was the only wide receiver to catch multiple passes, amassing only 42 yards to lead the team. A big part of this passing inefficiency was the loss of Allen Robinson early in this game, who we now know will miss the remainder of this season with a torn ACL. This means both Allen Hurns and Marquise Lee should see a big bump in usage going into Week 2 against a vulnerable Titans secondary.

The Titans secondary had a tough outing against the Raiders, allowing 262 passing yards and two touchdowns in addition to a number of significant receptions as four separate Raiders caught a pass of at least 19 yards. Former Jaguars safety Johnathan Cyprien really struggled in coverage, as he allowed Derek Carr to complete all four pass attempts thrown his way for a total of 75 yards. Rookie cornerback Adoree Jackson made some very solid plays though, defending a couple of key passes while up against Amari Cooper. New cornerback Logan Ryan, while only logging one tackle, also played relatively well in coverage.

Jaguars vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-5.0)8 (-5.0)3 (-9.7)6 (-7.6)
1Deshaun Watson4812231021121609.

Marcus Mariota (FanDuel: $7900, DraftKings: $6400)

1vs OAK64254125600326121.421.418.818.8
2PROJ-Dodds22342551.50.84200. (H=50)21.2 (H=61)
2PROJ-Tremblay19322201.30.95240.218.918.918.9 (H=41)18.9 (H=50)
2PROJ-Bloom22332331.50.93190.219.919.919.9 (H=44)19.9 (H=55)

Jaguars vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8 (-4.9)10T (-4.6)10 (-4.6)10T (-5.1)
1Lamar Miller6417650223109.611.610.611.6
1Tyler Ervin50380541802.

DeMarco Murray (FanDuel: $7500, DraftKings: $6300)

1vs OAK471244022160687.08.0
2PROJ-Dodds16640.52160.111.613.612.6 (H=21)13.6 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay16620.51709.910.910.4 (H=15)10.9 (H=19)
2PROJ-Bloom18720.52140. (H=23)14.2 (H=31)

Derrick Henry (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $5500)

1vs OAK18625000002.
2PROJ-Dodds9340.31705.96.96.4 (H=9)6.9 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay8320.3000555.0 (H=5)5.0 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom7310.2160. (H=8)6.5 (H=9)

Jaguars vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-7.2)6 (-11.5)4 (-9.2)6 (-12.0)
1DeAndre Hopkins7916755100011.518.515.018.5
1Bruce Ellington4520000000.

Eric Decker (FanDuel: $6100, DraftKings: $4400)

1vs OAK6083100000142.54.0
2PROJ-Dodds4520.30007119.0 (H=14)11.0 (H=28)
2PROJ-Tremblay4460.30006.410.48.4 (H=13)10.4 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom4400.40006.410.48.4 (H=13)10.4 (H=26)

Rishard Matthews (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4600)

1vs OAK52957100007.112.19.612.1
2PROJ-Dodds4520.30007119.0 (H=14)11.0 (H=27)
2PROJ-Tremblay4530.30007.111.19.1 (H=14)11.1 (H=28)
2PROJ-Bloom4560.30007.411.49.4 (H=15)11.4 (H=29)

Corey Davis (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4100)

1vs OAK421066900006.912.99.912.9
2PROJ-Dodds4510.30006.910.98.9 (H=15)10.9 (H=30)
2PROJ-Tremblay4500.30006.810.88.8 (H=15)10.8 (H=30)
2PROJ-Bloom6640.30008.214.211.2 (H=23)14.2 (H=48)

Taywan Taylor (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3600)

1vs OAK6221400001.
2PROJ-Dodds1150.10002.13.12.6 (H=2)3.1 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay1120.10001.82.82.3 (H=1)2.8 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom1900000.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=1)

Jaguars vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (-0.5)19 (+1.2)18 (+0.3)19 (+1.1)
1C.J. Fiedorowicz24444604.

Delanie Walker (FanDuel: $6200, DraftKings: $4700)

1vs OAK53977607.614.611.114.6
2PROJ-Dodds4450.46.910.98.9 (H=14)10.9 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay5500.47.412.49.9 (H=17)12.4 (H=33)
2PROJ-Bloom4450.36.310.38.3 (H=12)10.3 (H=24)

Jaguars vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-6.0)2 (-6.0)2 (-7.0) (+0.0)
1Kaimi Fairbairn0011111.00.0

Ryan Succop (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $--)

1vs OAK3411101012.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1.722. (H=17)8.6
2PROJ-Tremblay1.622. (H=15)8.0

Jaguars vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-7.4)1 (-7.4)1T (-8.6)1T (-8.6)
1Houston Texans2928000000000.00.0

Tennessee Titans (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3300)

1vs OAK26.0035920000222.02.0
2PROJ-Dodds21.403402.410.700. (H=18)8.6 (H=25)
2PROJ-Tremblay20.253562.41.10.800.4101010.0 (H=23)10.0 (H=32)

Titans vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)22 (+3.5)22 (+3.5)21T (+3.8)18T (+2.9)
1Derek Carr6622322622022021.321.318.718.7

Blake Bortles (FanDuel: $7100, DraftKings: $4400)

1@ HOU64112112510313011.611.610.310.3
2PROJ-Dodds22362301.213110.217.617.617.6 (H=40)17.6 (H=65)
2PROJ-Tremblay22372531.31.1270.1181818.0 (H=42)18.0 (H=67)
2PROJ-Bloom162616110.83110.112.912.912.9 (H=23)12.9 (H=38)

Titans vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-3.3)8 (-5.0)11 (-4.0)7T (-5.5)
1Marshawn Lynch3218760211609.210.29.710.2
1Jalen Richard14522011602.

Leonard Fournette (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6500)

1@ HOU392610013324018.421.419.924.4
2PROJ-Dodds17650.63260.113.316.314.8 (H=28)16.3 (H=38)
2PROJ-Tremblay17680.54300.113.417.415.4 (H=29)17.4 (H=43)
2PROJ-Bloom21860.53160.113.816.815.3 (H=29)16.8 (H=40)

Chris Ivory (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3600)

1@ HOU259420211105.
2PROJ-Dodds6220.22140. (H=10)7.4 (H=17)
2PROJ-Tremblay6240.23240. (H=15)9.6 (H=27)
2PROJ-Bloom10420.21706.17.16.6 (H=11)7.1 (H=16)

Tommy Bohanon (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ HOU2610011116.
2PROJ-Dodds0001100121.5 (H=0)2.0 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay1401701.12.11.6 (H=1)2.1 (H=2)

Titans vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+10.4)26 (+12.1)27 (+11.4)26 (+11.6)
1Amari Cooper6113562100012.217.214.717.2
1Michael Crabtree48768300008.314.311.314.3

Marqise Lee (FanDuel: $5900, DraftKings: $3800)

1@ HOU534000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds5550.30007.312.39.8 (H=17)12.3 (H=40)
2PROJ-Tremblay4520.20006.410.48.4 (H=13)10.4 (H=30)
2PROJ-Bloom5520.30007129.5 (H=16)12.0 (H=38)

Allen Hurns (FanDuel: $5600, DraftKings: $3900)

1@ HOU51434200004.
2PROJ-Dodds4480.30006.610.68.6 (H=14)10.6 (H=30)
2PROJ-Tremblay4540.30007.211.29.2 (H=16)11.2 (H=33)
2PROJ-Bloom4510.40007.511.59.5 (H=17)11.5 (H=35)

Jaelen Strong (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $--)

2PROJ-Dodds3360.20004.87.86.3 (H=9)7.8
2PROJ-Tremblay3400.20005.28.26.7 (H=10)8.2
2PROJ-Bloom22400002.44.43.4 (H=3)4.4

Arrelious Benn (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ HOU7111200001.
2PROJ-Dodds2260.10003.25.24.2 (H=5)5.2 (H=11)
2PROJ-Tremblay2300.20004.26.25.2 (H=7)6.2 (H=15)

Titans vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)14 (-0.9)14 (-0.2)14 (-0.6)14 (-0.3)
1Jared Cook47555605.610.68.110.6

Marcedes Lewis (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ HOU642000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds2210. (H=4)4.7 (H=11)
2PROJ-Tremblay3340. (H=10)7.6 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom170. (H=1)2.3 (H=3)

James OShaughnessy (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ HOU1111801.
2PROJ-Dodds2200. (H=4)4.6 (H=11)
2PROJ-Tremblay2200. (H=5)5.2 (H=13)
2PROJ-Bloom2280. (H=5)5.4 (H=14)

Titans vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29T (+7.0)29T (+7.0)30 (+11.0) (+0.0)
1Giorgio Tavecchio4422141419.00.0

Jason Myers (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $--)

1@ HOU3423111112.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1.51.822. (H=14)7.6
2PROJ-Tremblay1.51.9226.56.57.6 (H=14)7.6

Titans vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2T (-6.4)2T (-6.4)4T (-6.6)4T (-6.6)
1Oakland Raiders1635010000112.02.0

Jacksonville Jaguars (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ HOU7.00203101301303028.028.0
2PROJ-Dodds22.603432.40.90.700. (H=18)8.5 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay21.253382.10.90.700.4999.0 (H=20)9.0 (H=29)