Matchup Analysis: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Packers 26, Falcons 29

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Green Bay Packers Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Packers Offense17.0 (-3.2) (21)84 (-8) (15)286 (+65) (6)
Falcons Defense17.0 (-3.2) (12)125 (+32) (25)176 (-44) (11)

Atlanta Falcons Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Falcons Offense23.0 (+2.8) (11)64 (-28) (19)308 (+87) (4)
Packers Defense9.0 (-11.2) (8)90 (-2) (19)135 (-85) (6)

Packers Rushing offense

Good matchup vs. the Falcons defense.

The Packers rushing offense was held to only 84 yards on 28 attempts last week, with 21 of those yards coming from Aaron Rodgers. It was tough to find room to run, but the Packers did very clearly establish that Ty Montgomery is their lead back—affording him all but two of the 21 total carries while Montgomery saw the field on 74 of 82 snaps. Last week was a very difficult matchup for Montgomery against the Seahawks, which helps to explain why he only could muster 2.8 yards per carry.

This week, Montgomery draws a much-improved rushing match up against a Falcons team that ranked as one of the worst against the run in 2016. The Falcons allowed the Bears to average 6.6 yards per carry on their way to 125 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown last week, showing that we may expect more of the same in 2017. Falcons addition Dontari Poe played well on the interior, but Montgomery bounces quite a few runs to the outside, which will challenge the Falcons defensive ends and linebackers.

Packers Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Falcons defense.

Green Bay will visit the Falcons this week in a game with one of the highest point totals of the week. Aaron Rodgers figures to be a big part of that point total after coming off a 300+ yard outing against the elite Seahawks defense in Week 1. Randall Cobb led Packers receivers as he caught nine balls for 85 yards out of the slot last week. Jordy Nelson was close behind with 79 yards and the Packers only touchdown through the air. This week, Ty Montgomery will be a big threat in what is a very favorable matchup for him. The Falcons struggled last season against pass-catching running backs, allowing them the league’s most receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Chicago’s Tarik Cohen had his way with the Falcons by hauling in eight receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown. This bodes well for Ty Montgomery, who is most noted for his pass-catching ability out of the backfield.

The Falcons cornerbacks didn’t have much of a challenge in Week 1 against an injury-ridden Bears receiving corps, with most of the Bears passing yards coming from their running backs and tight ends on check downs passes. The Falcons made little adjustments in the offseason to one of the worst secondaries in the league, so this week will be a true test to see if that secondary has taken any steps forward.

Falcons Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Packers defense.

The Falcons struggled to rush the ball in Week 1 as the duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined to average only 2.9 yards per carry for 53 total rushing yards. While Freeman started as the lead back, he just narrowly out-snapped Coleman here (36 to 24) as the rushing workload was split fairly evenly. The Falcons offensive line would have had a solid outing if not for a very tough day by their right guard, first-time starter Wes Schweitzer. He allowed a significant amount of penetration against mediocre opposing defensive linemen. If Schweitzer gets the start again this week, look for the Packers front seven to have a field day.

The Packers defense dominated a weak Seahawks offensive line in Week 1, racking up nine tackles for loss with three sacks. Right tackle Mike Daniels had a very solid outing, accounting for 2.5 of those tackles for loss with seven tackles overall and four quarterback hits. The Packers defense has played well against the run in recent years, but the Falcons have a solid offensive line outside of one tough spot with Schweitzer.

Falcons Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Packers defense.

The Falcons will face the Packers this week in their home opener at the new Atlanta Mercedes-Benz stadium in a game sporting one of the highest point totals of the week. Matt Ryan picked up right where he left off last season with another 300-yard game, passing for 321 yards and no interceptions. Ryan only threw for one touchdown though, while 88 of his passing yards came from one chunk play. The Falcons offensive line struggled in pass protection, allowing Ryan to take 10 hits and two sacks with a number of hurried pass attempts throughout the day. Julio Jones struggled to find space against Chicago’s zone coverage, only drawing five targets with four receptions for 66 yards. Mohamed Sanu led the team in targets and receptions, but it was tight end Austin Hooper who led in yardage with 128 receiving yards on only two receptions.

The Packers defense did a great job at limiting Russell Wilson in Week 1, holding the Seahawks to only 158 passing yards and no touchdowns. Much of this can be attributed to the relentless pass rush led by Nick Perry and Mike Daniels, racking up six of the team’s seven quarterback hits and all three sacks. The Falcons offensive line is far more talented than the Seahawks unit, but they did struggle in pass protection last week against the Bears. The Packers still have a weaker than average secondary with a couple of subpar cornerbacks, which is something that both Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu should be able to exploit as long as Matt Ryan has time to find them. Ryan racked up 392 yards and four touchdowns in the NFC Championship game against Green Bay last season, and their secondary did not exactly improve during the offseason.

Falcons vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)11T (-3.2)11T (-3.2)13 (-2.4)12 (-3.3)
1Mike Glennon6726402131000014.714.712.512.5

Aaron Rodgers (FanDuel: $9100, DraftKings: $7400)

1vs SEA82284231111721020.720.717.520.5
2PROJ-Dodds263929720.75210.225.525.525.5 (H=60)25.5 (H=73)
2PROJ-Tremblay25402871.71.26200.323.823.823.8 (H=53)23.8 (H=65)
2PROJ-Bloom26352942.10.55230. (H=62)26.1 (H=76)

Falcons vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)28 (+13.1)29 (+18.4)29 (+15.9)29 (+17.9)
1Tarik Cohen28566012847117.325.321.325.3
1Jordan Howard38135215314012.615.614.115.6

Ty Montgomery (FanDuel: $6500, DraftKings: $5800)

1vs SEA74195414439015.319.317.319.3
2PROJ-Dodds15660.53230.112.515.514.0 (H=29)15.5 (H=39)
2PROJ-Tremblay15630.52150.111.413.412.4 (H=24)13.4 (H=30)
2PROJ-Bloom15640.55360. (H=40)19.2 (H=57)

Jamaal Williams (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $4400)

1vs SEA629000000.
2PROJ-Dodds4160.10002.22.22.2 (H=1)2.2 (H=1)
2PROJ-Tremblay290.11702.23.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=3)
2PROJ-Bloom270.10001.31.31.3 (H=0)1.3 (H=0)

Falcons vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-10.5)4 (-12.8)3 (-11.5)4 (-13.3)
1Kendall Wright39433400003.
1Josh Bellamy33432700002.

Jordy Nelson (FanDuel: $8100, DraftKings: $7900)

1vs SEA768779100013.920.917.420.9
2PROJ-Dodds6760.600011.217.214.2 (H=24)17.2 (H=34)
2PROJ-Tremblay7880.600012.419.415.9 (H=29)19.4 (H=43)
2PROJ-Bloom5710.600010.715.713.2 (H=21)15.7 (H=29)

Davante Adams (FanDuel: $6700, DraftKings: $5600)

1vs SEA67734700004.
2PROJ-Dodds5620.40008.613.611.1 (H=19)13.6 (H=32)
2PROJ-Tremblay5680.40009.214.211.7 (H=21)14.2 (H=35)
2PROJ-Bloom4610.50009.113.111.1 (H=19)13.1 (H=30)

Randall Cobb (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5900)

1vs SEA631398500008.517.513.017.5
2PROJ-Dodds5540.40007.812.810.3 (H=18)12.8 (H=28)
2PROJ-Tremblay4470.30006.510.58.5 (H=12)10.5 (H=19)
2PROJ-Bloom6620.31408.414.411.4 (H=21)14.4 (H=34)

Geronimo Allison (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3000)

2PROJ-Dodds1180.10002.43.42.9 (H=2)3.4 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Falcons vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (+0.5)21 (+2.2)20 (+1.3)21 (+2.1)
1Zach Miller40643903.

Martellus Bennett (FanDuel: $5800, DraftKings: $3900)

1vs SEA67634304.
2PROJ-Dodds4450.36.310.38.3 (H=13)10.3 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay4440. (H=13)10.2 (H=28)
2PROJ-Bloom4490.47.311.39.3 (H=16)11.3 (H=34)

Lance Kendricks (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs SEA21421801.
2PROJ-Dodds190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay2190. (H=5)5.1 (H=13)
2PROJ-Bloom2150. (H=3)4.1 (H=9)

Falcons vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)10T (-2.0)10T (-2.0)15T (-1.0) (+0.0)
1Connor Barth1122557.00.0

Mason Crosby (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $--)

1vs SEA1122556.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1. (H=19)9.4
2PROJ-Tremblay22. (H=21)9.8

Falcons vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6T (-5.4)6T (-5.4)4T (-6.6)4T (-6.6)
1Chicago Bears2337220000222.02.0

Green Bay Packers (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2300)

1vs SEA9.0022530100559.09.0
2PROJ-Dodds28.304052.10.90.500. (H=11)6.1 (H=19)
2PROJ-Tremblay28.753562.210.500. (H=11)6.3 (H=21)

Packers vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)7 (-5.9)7 (-5.9)7 (-6.6)7 (-6.5)
1Russell Wilson49142715800240011.911.98.39.3

Matt Ryan (FanDuel: $8200, DraftKings: $7500)

1@ CHI59213032110311021.221.217.920.9
2PROJ-Dodds253728620.9270.122.722.722.7 (H=54)22.7 (H=59)
2PROJ-Tremblay2234260213100.121.621.621.6 (H=49)21.6 (H=54)
2PROJ-Bloom243328320.7230.122.422.422.4 (H=53)22.4 (H=58)

Packers vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2 (-11.2)1 (-15.9)1 (-13.4)1 (-16.4)
1Chris Carson266390111004.
1C.J. Prosise16411000001.

Devonta Freeman (FanDuel: $8100, DraftKings: $7300)

1@ CHI361237122209.911.910.911.9
2PROJ-Dodds14610.63250.213.416.414.9 (H=26)16.4 (H=34)
2PROJ-Tremblay13510.63230.111.614.613.1 (H=21)14.6 (H=28)
2PROJ-Bloom15620.72140.112.414.413.4 (H=22)14.4 (H=27)

Tevin Coleman (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $5300)

1@ CHI248160644205.
2PROJ-Dodds9370.33250. (H=21)12.2 (H=28)
2PROJ-Tremblay9350.43250.191210.5 (H=20)12.0 (H=27)
2PROJ-Bloom9330.33250. (H=17)11.2 (H=24)

Packers vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-6.0)9 (-8.3)9T (-7.0)9 (-8.8)
1Doug Baldwin43446301-306.
1Paul Richardson41745900005.

Julio Jones (FanDuel: $8800, DraftKings: $9200)

1@ CHI48546600006.610.68.610.6
2PROJ-Dodds7970.600013.320.316.8 (H=30)20.3 (H=39)
2PROJ-Tremblay6880.7000131916.0 (H=27)19.0 (H=35)
2PROJ-Bloom7950.800014.321.317.8 (H=33)21.3 (H=43)

Mohamed Sanu (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4500)

1@ CHI48964700004.710.77.710.7
2PROJ-Dodds4440.30006.210.28.2 (H=14)10.2 (H=24)
2PROJ-Tremblay3380.30005.68.67.1 (H=11)8.6 (H=18)
2PROJ-Bloom5520.30007129.5 (H=18)12.0 (H=32)

Taylor Gabriel (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4000)

1@ CHI31433600003.
2PROJ-Dodds2360.30005.47.46.4 (H=10)7.4 (H=16)
2PROJ-Tremblay2280.2000465.0 (H=6)6.0 (H=11)
2PROJ-Bloom3450.30006.39.37.8 (H=14)9.3 (H=23)

Packers vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5T (-4.7)9 (-5.0)8 (-4.9)9 (-5.1)
1Nick Vannett8111001.

Austin Hooper (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3500)

1@ CHI4722128118.820.819.823.8
2PROJ-Dodds4400. (H=12)9.8 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay3350. (H=11)8.9 (H=25)
2PROJ-Bloom3410. (H=11)8.9 (H=25)

Levine Toilolo (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ CHI291000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds190. (H=1)2.5 (H=3)
2PROJ-Tremblay1140.1232.5 (H=2)3.0 (H=5)
2PROJ-Bloom1110. (H=1)2.7 (H=4)

Packers vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19T (+2.0)19T (+2.0)20 (+2.0) (+0.0)
1Blair Walsh33009910.00.0

Matt Bryant (FanDuel: $5000, DraftKings: $--)

1@ CHI3322111112.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1. (H=21)9.9
2PROJ-Tremblay2. (H=25)11.1

Packers vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)20 (-1.4)20 (-1.4)17 (-1.6)17 (-1.6)
1Seattle Seahawks1737041000667.07.0

Atlanta Falcons (FanDuel: $4300, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ CHI17.0030140000445.05.0
2PROJ-Dodds25.603942.30.90.500. (H=12)6.7 (H=21)
2PROJ-Tremblay25.753792.61.20.600. (H=16)7.9 (H=28)