Matchup Analysis: Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Cowboys 23, Broncos 21

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Dallas Cowboys Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Cowboys Offense19.0 (-1.2) (18)129 (+36) (7)263 (+42) (10)
Broncos Defense21.0 (+0.8) (20)64 (-28) (14)185 (-35) (15)

Denver Broncos Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Broncos Offense24.0 (+3.8) (9)140 (+47) (5)181 (-39) (19)
Cowboys Defense3.0 (-17.2) (5)35 (-57) (4)198 (-22) (16)

Cowboys Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

Ezekiel Elliott had a successful Week 1 amidst all of the recent controversies, rushing for 104 yards on 24 carries as he helped secure the Cowboys victory. Elliott was the clear leader of this backfield as he out-snapped Alfred Morris 60-to-8. Darren McFadden was surprisingly inactive for Week 1. The Cowboys offensive line also looked as dominant as usual, even against a stout Giants defensive line.

The Cowboys will be in for yet another challenge in Week 2 as they face the elite Broncos defense. Last week, the Broncos held Melvin Gordon to 54 yards on 18 carries with no touchdowns. After some early success with his first two carries, the Broncos defensive front proceeded to limit Gordon to only 28 yards on 16 carries. While the Broncos were vulnerable to the run last season, they looked solid in the season opener with Von Miller looking as elite as ever. This will be a big challenge for the league’s top rushing offense.

Cowboys Passing offense

Bad matchup vs. the Broncos defense.

The Cowboys do not typically need to rely much on their passing attack with Dak Prescott under center. The game script in Week 1, however, was more pass heavy than usual, with Prescott attempting 39 passes—tied for the second most in a game during his short NFL career. We saw Prescott struggle with this uptick in pass attempts, particularly with his deep shots as he rarely connected outside of one big play to Brice Butler. Dez Bryant was covered up by Janoris Jenkins for most of the night, allowing for Terrance Williams to lead the team in receiving yards with 68. Jason Witten led the team in receptions with seven while accounting for the Cowboys’ only passing touchdown.

The Broncos own one of the league’s best passing defenses, led by elite cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. Cole Beasley will be in for a challenge out of the slot, while Dez Bryant will often be covered up by Aqib Talib. Starting Safety Darian Stewart and cornerback Brendan Langley both left with injuries in Week 1 and are questionable coming into this week. While those injuries are worth watching, neither will have a big impact on this matchup as the Cowboys receivers will be in for a challenge either way.

Broncos Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Cowboys defense.

The Broncos rushing attack looked great in Week 1 with C.J Anderson in the lead role. Anderson rushed 20 times for 81 yards compared to Jamaal Charles with 10 carries for 40 yards. Combined, they averaged over four yards per carry—a very solid showing. Anderson out-snapped Charles 48 to 21. Anderson’s day could have been even more successful had a touchdown run in the third quarter not been called back due to a penalty.

The Cowboys did not have much of a rushing threat to defend against when facing the Giants in week 1, so the Broncos more balanced offense should present the Dallas’ defense with more of a test. The Cowboys defensive line suffered some losses during the offseason, and their one addition in Taco Charlton did not have the best of games in Week 1 as he failed to record a tackle despite playing 26 snaps. We are still in wait and see mode on this Dallas run defense due to their lack of a true test in Week 1.

Broncos Passing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Cowboys defense.

Trevor Siemien managed the Broncos to a win in Week 1, passing for 219 yards and two touchdowns while showing very impressive mobility throughout the game that included a rushing touchdown in the second quarter. Demaryius Thomas was Siemien’s favorite target, nabbing five of eight targets for 67 yards. Siemien connected with slot receiver Bennie Fowler for both passing touchdowns, while Emmanuel Sanders had a relatively quiet evening as he struggled against the Chargers cornerbacks.

The Cowboys secondary came into the season with some question marks after losing four defensive backs in the offseason, but they had a solid outing in Week 1 with a significant amount of support from a strong pass rush. Orlando Scandrick suffered a broken bone in his hand and had to leave in the second quarter, however, Anthony Brown stepped in and did a fine job in Scandrick’s absence, allowing only one catch while tacking on an interception. Scandrick’s status is worth monitoring, as both Emmanuel Sanders and Bennie Fowler see a bump in value if he sits.

Broncos vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+2.8)19 (+2.8)21T (+3.8)18T (+2.9)
1Philip Rivers5922331923100020.620.618.718.7

Dak Prescott (FanDuel: $7700, DraftKings: $5600)

1vs NYG74243926810324019.819.817.117.1
2PROJ-Dodds20322311.40.93130.218.718.718.7 (H=41)18.7 (H=56)
2PROJ-Tremblay20332141.313150.318.218.218.2 (H=39)18.2 (H=54)
2PROJ-Bloom21312021.30.83140. (H=35)17.1 (H=48)

Broncos vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)15T (-2.6)14 (-3.3)14T (-2.8)13 (-3.8)
1Melvin Gordon45185406525113.918.916.418.9
1Branden Oliver11410010001.

Ezekiel Elliott (FanDuel: $8700, DraftKings: $7800)

1vs NYG6024104055360141916.522.0
2PROJ-Dodds19860.63230. (H=29)18.1 (H=38)
2PROJ-Tremblay22960.63210.115.918.917.4 (H=32)18.9 (H=41)
2PROJ-Bloom23950.54200. (H=31)19.1 (H=42)

Alfred Morris (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $4500)

1vs NYG841000000.
2PROJ-Dodds4140.1000222.0 (H=1)2.0 (H=1)
2PROJ-Tremblay4160.10002.22.22.2 (H=1)2.2 (H=1)
2PROJ-Bloom3900000.90.90.9 (H=0)0.9 (H=0)

Broncos vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)24 (+6.5)24 (+8.2)25 (+7.5)23 (+7.7)
1Travis Benjamin394343100010.313.311.813.3
1Keenan Allen531053510009.514.512.014.5

Dez Bryant (FanDuel: $7600, DraftKings: $6600)

1vs NYG67924300004.
2PROJ-Dodds4600.40008.412.410.4 (H=15)12.4 (H=23)
2PROJ-Tremblay5690.40009.314.311.8 (H=18)14.3 (H=30)
2PROJ-Bloom4630.50009.313.311.3 (H=17)13.3 (H=26)

Cole Beasley (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $4300)

1vs NYG52533200003.
2PROJ-Dodds3400.20005.28.26.7 (H=9)8.2 (H=17)
2PROJ-Tremblay3380.2000586.5 (H=9)8.0 (H=17)
2PROJ-Bloom4310.20004.38.36.3 (H=8)8.3 (H=18)

Brice Butler (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs NYG3531300000343.54.0
2PROJ-Dodds3360.20004.87.86.3 (H=10)7.8 (H=23)
2PROJ-Tremblay1130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom11200001.22.21.7 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)

Terrance Williams (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3600)

1vs NYG38766800006.812.89.812.8
2PROJ-Dodds2240.1000354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=9)
2PROJ-Tremblay3380.2000586.5 (H=10)8.0 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom3330.10003.96.95.4 (H=7)6.9 (H=15)

Broncos vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-4.8)4 (-7.1)4 (-6.0)4 (-7.2)
1Antonio Gates39321701.

Jason Witten (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs NYG749759111.918.915.418.9
2PROJ-Dodds4380. (H=12)9.6 (H=29)
2PROJ-Tremblay4350. (H=13)9.9 (H=31)
2PROJ-Bloom5430.46.711.79.2 (H=17)11.7 (H=41)

Broncos vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-4.0)3T (-4.0)3T (-5.0) (+0.0)
1Younghoe Koo0133333.00.0

Dan Bailey (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $--)

1vs NYG4411131315.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1. (H=18)9.0
2PROJ-Tremblay1. (H=17)8.7

Broncos vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)21T (+0.6)21T (+0.6)18T (-0.6)18T (-0.6)
1Los Angeles Chargers2432141100888.08.0

Dallas Cowboys (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2600)

1vs NYG3.00233310005512.012.0
2PROJ-Dodds20.303542.40.80.700. (H=16)8.4 (H=30)
2PROJ-Tremblay20.503492.41.20.700.410.210.210.2 (H=23)10.2 (H=42)

Cowboys vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-7.9)5 (-7.9)5 (-7.2)4 (-8.1)
1Eli Manning562938220011-

Trevor Siemian (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $4900)

1vs LAC69172821921619125.925.923.723.7
2PROJ-Dodds22362361.40.8250.117.717.717.7 (H=43)17.7 (H=59)
2PROJ-Tremblay23372591.51.24120.119.519.519.5 (H=51)19.5 (H=70)
2PROJ-Bloom19282051.20.75210.217.717.717.7 (H=43)17.7 (H=59)

Cowboys vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)5 (-8.6)16 (-2.3)7 (-5.3)15 (-2.8)
1Shane Vereen310001095105.114.19.614.1
1Paul Perkins17716032902.

C.J. Anderson (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $4700)

1vs LAC482081031708.
2PROJ-Dodds16650.4215010.412.411.4 (H=19)12.4 (H=33)
2PROJ-Tremblay13510.3321091210.5 (H=16)12.0 (H=31)
2PROJ-Bloom18740.716012.213.212.7 (H=23)13.2 (H=37)

Jamaal Charles (FanDuel: $5300, DraftKings: $4200)

1vs LAC21104001000442.03.0
2PROJ-Dodds6260.12160. (H=9)7.4 (H=15)
2PROJ-Tremblay7270.21704.65.65.1 (H=6)5.6 (H=9)
2PROJ-Bloom8340.22130. (H=12)8.5 (H=19)

Cowboys vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)6 (-7.3)12 (-6.6)11 (-6.8)12 (-7.1)
1Roger Lewis43645400005.
1Sterling Shepard56874401605.012.08.512.0

Demaryius Thomas (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5900)

1vs LAC60856700006.711.79.211.7
2PROJ-Dodds6680.40009.215.212.2 (H=21)15.2 (H=37)
2PROJ-Tremblay6800.400010.416.413.4 (H=25)16.4 (H=43)
2PROJ-Bloom5660.50009.614.612.1 (H=21)14.6 (H=35)

Emmanuel Sanders (FanDuel: $6400, DraftKings: $5200)

1vs LAC53632600002.
2PROJ-Dodds5600.40008.413.410.9 (H=19)13.4 (H=34)
2PROJ-Tremblay5630.30008.113.110.6 (H=18)13.1 (H=33)
2PROJ-Bloom5640.40008.813.811.3 (H=20)13.8 (H=36)

Bennie Fowler (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs LAC384321200014.117.115.617.1
2PROJ-Dodds2290.20004.16.15.1 (H=7)6.1 (H=15)
2PROJ-Tremblay2240.20003.65.64.6 (H=6)5.6 (H=13)
2PROJ-Bloom2150.20002.74.73.7 (H=4)4.7 (H=9)

Cody Latimer (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs LAC120000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Cowboys vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)13 (-1.2)13 (-0.5)13 (-0.9)13 (-0.6)
1Evan Engram48544404.

A.J. Derby (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $2600)

1vs LAC29333403.
2PROJ-Dodds2170. (H=3)4.3 (H=9)
2PROJ-Tremblay3310. (H=8)7.3 (H=24)
2PROJ-Bloom32702.75.74.2 (H=4)5.7 (H=15)

Virgil Green (FanDuel: $--, DraftKings: $2700)

1vs LAC45114404.
2PROJ-Dodds1130. (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay1110. (H=4)
2PROJ-Bloom11401. (H=3)

Jeff Heuerman (FanDuel: $4600, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs LAC1721200232.53.0
2PROJ-Dodds1800.81.81.3 (H=0)1.8 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay2240.1354.0 (H=4)5.0 (H=12)
2PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Cowboys vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-4.0)3T (-4.0)3T (-5.0) (+0.0)
1Aldrick Rosas1100333.00.0

Brandon McManus (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $--)

1vs LAC1233666.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1.722. (H=16)8.4
2PROJ-Tremblay1.51.9226.66.67.7 (H=14)7.7

Cowboys vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)2T (-6.4)2T (-6.4)4T (-6.6)4T (-6.6)
1New York Giants1939210000112.02.0

Denver Broncos (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3400)

1vs LAC21.0024911000335.05.0
2PROJ-Dodds21.803422.40.90.700. (H=15)8.1 (H=22)
2PROJ-Tremblay23.003412.210.700. (H=16)8.4 (H=23)