Matchup Analysis: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Vegas Prediction

Vegas says: Browns 16, Ravens 24

FBG Projections

TeamRushYardsTDCompAttPass YdTDINT

Cleveland Browns Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Browns Offense18.0 (-2.2) (19)57 (-35) (25)180 (-40) (20)
Ravens Defense0.0 (-20.2) (3)77 (-15) (16)144 (-76) (7)

Baltimore Ravens Offense: overview

Points (vs AVG) (rank)Rush Yards (vs AVG) (rank)Pass Yards (vs AVG) (rank)
Ravens Offense20.0 (-0.2) (16)157 (+64) (3)111 (-109) (29)
Browns Defense21.0 (+0.8) (18)35 (-57) (3)255 (+34) (21)

Browns Rushing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

Cleveland’s line lost overall in Week 1, and Isaiah Crowell wasn’t left with much room to operate, managing just 33 yards on 17 rushes. That’s not the kickoff the Browns were expecting after adding two strong interior linemen (Kevin Zeitler and J.C. Tretter) to an already-elite unit. But any group with two new starters will need time to gel, and Crowell himself could run more decisively upfield; plenty of the running game’s inconsistency is on him. After all, he’s been held below 4.0 yards per rush in 10 of his last 13 games. He’ll carry lots of volume appeal in virtually every matchup – Duke Johnson’s rushing role certainly isn’t on the rise – but he’s not yet a strong bet for efficiency.

The Baltimore run defense has posted elite numbers on the whole for quite some time. Stout along the line and at inside linebacker, they’ve been great against power rushers. Still, quick-footed guys have found a lot of recent success bouncing outside the box. Over the last three weeks of last season, we saw three huge rushing lines from the likes of Ryan Matthews (20 carries for 128 yards), LeVeon Bell (20 for 122), and Rex Burkhead (27 for 119). And just last week, Giovani Bernard mustered 40 yards on just 7 rushes. This defense is definitely imposing, but Isaiah Crowell (and to a lesser extent Duke Johnson) – both quick, east-west runners – could find intriguing room, but it is a tough matchup up the middle for these running backs.

Browns Passing offense

Tough matchup vs. the Ravens defense.

DeShone Kizer wasn’t great in his NFL debut, but he performed toward the higher end of the first-start scale. He took seven sacks and threw a bad interception, but also led a late-game touchdown drive entirely with his arm. At this point, Kizer is merely getting up to speed and making the most of the reps with his many young receivers. Besides his mobility, aggressiveness is his most fantasy-attractive trait, so we’ll see some sporadic fireworks as he grows more comfortable pushing the field. He certainly has the personnel to create plays, stocked with dynamism at every skill position. Much of his growth as a stat-stuffer hinges upon Corey Coleman’s co-development, and the duo connected well in the opener, hitting on 5 of 6 targets for 53 yards. Coleman made several key catches, both down the field (beating Joe Haden for 19 and 23 yards) and underneath (a tough quick-slant touchdown catch in heavy traffic). If he keeps winning one-on-one battles down the field, Kizer should have a few big stat lines ahead, if not this Sunday.

The Ravens were merciless to Andy Dalton in Week 1, forcing him into 5 turnovers and registering 5 sacks. Their pass rush isn’t as good as last Sunday suggested – and they’ll be facing a Browns line generally stronger than that of last weeks’ Bengals. The secondary was especially active on the ball in Week 1, with their lead cornerback trio combining for three of the team’s four interceptions. They’ll be similarly honed in on rookie DeShone Kizer, who impressed in his debut but will face a strong man-coverage unit this week. This defense will again be fiery and aggressive, and they should force Kizer into difficult progressions and a few errant throws.

Ravens Rushing offense

Neutral matchup vs. the Browns defense.

Baltimore’s run game is predicated on grinding. It doesn’t produce fireworks, but it does a decent job of managing game flow with fall-forward running. The personnel is uninspiring: Terrence West is a one-speed guy, and Buck Allen simply appears to be running in quicksand. But together they can get what’s blocked, and the Ravens line held its own in Week 1. Marshal Yanda’s presence is absolutely essential to their success, and he appears healthy and dominant. It will be interesting to see how the backs fare without a fullback, what with lead blocker Kyle Juszczyk out of town and an offensive shift to a one-back base.

The Browns run defense, gashed extensively throughout 2016, showed fantastically in its 2017 debut. Danny Shelton’s return to the lineup was huge, as the Browns clogged lanes and finished Bell’s runs all day. But even more important to the equation is new coordinator Gregg Williams, whose defenses have finished top-six in four of his last six seasons in yards per rush. Of course, we’ll need to see more than one outstanding matchup to consider this a unit to outright avoid in fantasy. But things are trending up – and given Williams’ history, they’re trending toward the elite.

Ravens Passing offense

Good matchup vs. the Browns defense.

Joe Flacco wasn’t asked to do much in Week 1’s ugly knockout of the Bengals, but that was script-related. This is definitely an offense that wants to throw – they’ve put more passes into the air over the last two seasons than any other team. And with Flacco’s downfield-oriented receiving corps, he’ll gradually start generating more and more potential impact with his passing than we saw last week. Jeremy Maclin got loose for a long touchdown, but it came on a quick slant; Flacco only threw once to the 15-yard level all day. As that number rises, we’ll see opportunities for Maclin, Mike Wallace, and Breshad Perriman to push the field and make plays. The question of his full-season value lies in the health of his back – as well as his conditioning after missing most of the preseason. But he looked reasonably efficient all-around in Week 1. For the moment, it’s safe to expect voluminous passing, but downfield dynamism is still a risky prospect.

This remains a pass defense to target; they’ve allowed more touchdown passes than any other team since the start of last season. Joe Haden’s release was the right move for the Browns – his on-field play is remarkably inconsistent and no longer worth his hefty Cleveland salary. But the team now lacks coverage chops; Jamar Taylor was solid last year, but was utterly shredded in Week 1 by Antonio Brown. And the safeties are poor in coverage behind them, leaving the defense open to splash plays and touchdowns on a massive scale. Gregg Williams’ presence bodes well for their future, of course. And It was encouraging that the team kept Martavis Bryant from producing anything of note last week. But there’s still no pass rush and little coverage ability to speak of here, and they’ll remain a leaky matchup for opposing fantasy players.

Ravens vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-13.1)1 (-13.1)1 (-13.9)1 (-13.8)
1Andy Dalton611631170041204.

DeShone Kizer (FanDuel: $6800, DraftKings: $5100)

1vs PIT66203022211517121.821.819.619.6
2PROJ-Dodds21342181.21.14150.116.716.716.7 (H=38)16.7 (H=51)
2PROJ-Tremblay22362441.11.14120.117.317.317.3 (H=41)17.3 (H=54)
2PROJ-Bloom20362101.11.55150. (H=36)16.1 (H=48)

Ravens vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)9 (-4.8)7 (-5.5)8T (-5.0)6 (-6.0)
1Giovani Bernard297400213907.
1Jeremy Hill10626011-

Isaiah Crowell (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $4900)

1vs PIT5217330223306.68.69.610.6
2PROJ-Dodds16640.32140. (H=20)12.2 (H=31)
2PROJ-Tremblay13460.221707.59.58.5 (H=12)9.5 (H=20)
2PROJ-Bloom16490.52160. (H=20)12.1 (H=30)

Duke Johnson (FanDuel: $5400, DraftKings: $3900)

1vs PIT5000052200243.04.0
2PROJ-Dodds4140.14290. (H=12)9.5 (H=25)
2PROJ-Tremblay31204310. (H=10)8.9 (H=22)
2PROJ-Bloom270.13220. (H=7)7.1 (H=15)

Matthew Dayes (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs PIT1337022901.
2PROJ-Dodds2501701.22.21.7 (H=1)2.2 (H=2)
2PROJ-Tremblay28021502.34.33.3 (H=3)4.3 (H=8)

Ravens vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)4 (-7.8)7 (-10.1)6 (-8.8)7 (-10.6)
1A.J. Green551057400007.412.49.912.4
1Brandon LaFell57532400002.

Corey Coleman (FanDuel: $6000, DraftKings: $4700)

1vs PIT536553100011.316.313.816.3
2PROJ-Dodds4510.30006.910.98.9 (H=14)10.9 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay4520.20006.410.48.4 (H=13)10.4 (H=24)
2PROJ-Bloom5600.40008.413.410.9 (H=20)13.4 (H=38)

Kenny Britt (FanDuel: $5700, DraftKings: $4000)

1vs PIT52311300001.
2PROJ-Dodds3420.20005.48.46.9 (H=9)8.4 (H=19)
2PROJ-Tremblay2300.10003.65.64.6 (H=4)5.6 (H=9)
2PROJ-Bloom1130.10001.92.92.4 (H=1)2.9 (H=3)

Ricardo Louis (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs PIT16323200003.
2PROJ-Dodds2200.10002.64.63.6 (H=4)4.6 (H=9)
2PROJ-Tremblay2280.10003.45.44.4 (H=5)5.4 (H=12)
2PROJ-Bloom2250.10003.15.14.1 (H=5)5.1 (H=11)

Kasen Williams (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1vs PIT122000000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Tremblay000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Ravens vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1T (-5.6)2T (-7.9)1T (-6.8)2T (-8.0)
1Tyler Kroft1211500.

David Njoku (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs PIT2922200243.04.0
2PROJ-Dodds2230. (H=6)5.5 (H=15)
2PROJ-Tremblay2210. (H=4)4.7 (H=11)
2PROJ-Bloom2170. (H=3)4.3 (H=10)

Seth DeValve (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

1vs PIT31544204.
2PROJ-Dodds2220. (H=5)5.4 (H=14)
2PROJ-Tremblay3310. (H=9)7.3 (H=25)
2PROJ-Bloom3320. (H=7)6.8 (H=22)

Ravens vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-7.0)1 (-7.0)1 (-8.0) (+0.0)
1Randy Bullock0000000.00.0

Zane Gonzalez (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $--)

1vs PIT1111444.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds1. (H=12)6.8
2PROJ-Tremblay1. (H=8)5.6

Ravens vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)8T (-4.4)8T (-4.4)12T (-4.6)12T (-4.6)
1Cincinnati Bengals2026811000334.04.0

Cleveland Browns (FanDuel: $4100, DraftKings: $2400)

1vs PIT21.0029011000333.03.0
2PROJ-Dodds24.103722.11.10.500. (H=15)7.4 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay23.004032.51.20.600. (H=20)8.7 (H=35)

Browns vs QB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)16 (+1.5)16 (+1.5)17 (+1.8)16 (+0.9)
1Ben Roethlisberger602436263213-8019.419.416.716.7

Joe Flacco (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $5200)

1@ CIN66917121110009.
2PROJ-Dodds24372581.61130. (H=47)19.2 (H=64)
2PROJ-Tremblay23382761.71.200019.419.419.4 (H=48)19.4 (H=65)
2PROJ-Bloom19322001.10.811013.713.713.7 (H=26)13.7 (H=35)

Browns vs RB

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)1 (-11.7)2 (-14.4)2 (-12.9)2 (-14.9)
1LeVeon Bell4310320631504.
1James Conner8411000001.

Terrance West (FanDuel: $6600, DraftKings: $5100)

1@ CIN27198011000141414.014.0
2PROJ-Dodds13560.52160.110.812.811.8 (H=21)12.8 (H=32)
2PROJ-Tremblay14640.4215010.312.311.3 (H=20)12.3 (H=30)
2PROJ-Bloom17660.6280111312.0 (H=22)13.0 (H=33)

Javorius Allen (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $4100)

1@ CIN332171010007.
2PROJ-Dodds12450.22170.18109.0 (H=18)10.0 (H=26)
2PROJ-Tremblay13570.3215091110.0 (H=22)11.0 (H=31)
2PROJ-Bloom12430.23160.17.710.79.2 (H=19)10.7 (H=29)

Browns vs WR

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)19 (+2.0)22 (+5.7)20 (+4.0)25 (+8.2)
1Antonio Brown511111182000018.229.223.732.2
1Martavis Bryant50621400001.

Jeremy Maclin (FanDuel: $6300, DraftKings: $5000)

1@ CIN484256100011.613.612.613.6
2PROJ-Dodds5550.40007.912.910.4 (H=18)12.9 (H=33)
2PROJ-Tremblay4590.30007.711.79.7 (H=16)11.7 (H=28)
2PROJ-Bloom4520.30007119.0 (H=14)11.0 (H=25)

Mike Wallace (FanDuel: $5500, DraftKings: $3900)

1@ CIN4711800000.
2PROJ-Dodds4510.30006.910.98.9 (H=16)10.9 (H=32)
2PROJ-Tremblay4560.20006.810.88.8 (H=15)10.8 (H=31)
2PROJ-Bloom4550.30007.311.39.3 (H=17)11.3 (H=34)

Breshad Perriman (FanDuel: $4900, DraftKings: $3100)

1@ CIN4241500000.
2PROJ-Dodds3440.30006.29.27.7 (H=14)9.2 (H=30)
2PROJ-Tremblay3430.20005.58.57.0 (H=11)8.5 (H=26)
2PROJ-Bloom3430.30006.19.17.6 (H=13)9.1 (H=29)

Mike Campanaro (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $3000)

1@ CIN1300001200.
2PROJ-Dodds1160.10002.23.22.7 (H=2)3.2 (H=4)
2PROJ-Tremblay2270.11603.95.94.9 (H=6)5.9 (H=14)
2PROJ-Bloom000000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Browns vs TE

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)29 (+9.6)30 (+11.3)29 (+10.4)29 (+11.2)
1Jesse James548641216.

Nick Boyle (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ CIN45111401.
2PROJ-Dodds2170. (H=3)4.3 (H=10)
2PROJ-Tremblay2210. (H=4)4.7 (H=11)
2PROJ-Bloom2170. (H=3)4.3 (H=10)

Ben Watson (FanDuel: $4800, DraftKings: $2600)

1@ CIN401000000.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds2160. (H=3)4.2 (H=9)
2PROJ-Tremblay2220. (H=4)4.8 (H=11)
2PROJ-Bloom000000.0 (H=0)0.0 (H=0)

Maxx Williams (FanDuel: $4500, DraftKings: $2500)

1@ CIN1711500.
2PROJ-Dodds2160. (H=3)4.2 (H=9)
2PROJ-Tremblay2180. (H=3)4.4 (H=10)
2PROJ-Bloom1900.91.91.4 (H=0)1.9 (H=2)

Browns vs PK

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)3T (-4.0)3T (-4.0)3T (-5.0) (+0.0)
1Chris Boswell0033333.00.0

Justin Tucker (FanDuel: $5200, DraftKings: $--)

1@ CIN2222888.00.0
2PROJ-Dodds22. (H=20)9.8
2PROJ-Tremblay1. (H=16)8.7

Browns vs TD

Season FPPG allowed rank (vs AVG)25T (+7.6)25T (+7.6)26 (+9.4)26 (+9.4)
1Pittsburgh Steelers1823771001151518.018.0

Baltimore Ravens (FanDuel: $4700, DraftKings: $3700)

1@ CIN0.0022154100151525.025.0
2PROJ-Dodds16.403022.71.10.900.411.411.411.4 (H=28)11.4 (H=36)
2PROJ-Tremblay15.503222. (H=34)12.7 (H=44)