Overvalued WRs

Jeff Haseley - Wallace is an injury risk after not attending training camp, plus he has a new offense to learn under Todd Haley. Combine that with him really only being a deep threat (albeit a good one) and there's reason for concern in selecting him at his current ADP. Antonio Brown is the wide receiver to have on Pittsburgh this year, not Wallace.

Ryan Hester - As a Steeler fan and a Game Recap writer of nearly every Steelers game last season, I noticed a trend that many have picked up on this offseason when discussing Pittsburgh's receivers. Ben Roethlisberger favored Antonio Brown over Wallace in the second half of 2011. Brown had more targets, catches, and yards than Wallace over the last eight games. Although Wallace's skill set is slightly limited, his elite skill (getting deep) is one that demands attention. Combine that attention with the potential lack of what he considers a sufficient contract offer, and Wallace could be a very disgruntled player this season. Brown's overall skill set is better at this point, and he's had a full camp to learn the new offense while Wallace has simply been reading a playbook and doing individual training exercises in Florida.

Matt Waldman - Go ahead and take a receiver with a game based on track star speed, but has missed most of training camp. He won't be in great football shape and the likelihood of a nagging injury will be too great for me to want him in my top-20 at the position. Please take him if you're in my league.

Mark Wimer - Wallace sulked his way through all the preseason OTAs and almost all of training camp, only to watch Antonio Brown (who came in to OTA's and camp, THEN negotiated a lucrative extension) take over as the #1 wide receiver in the Steelers' new offensive system. Wallace is way behind in learning the new system, and may not be starting even when (if) he reports to the team. I think Brown is the real deal and Wallace will be playing second-fiddle in Pittsburgh until he departs for greener pastures - he's wildly overrated at 18th wide receiver off the draft board.

Jason Wood - Wallace is unhappy with his contract, understandably so. Unfortunately he picked the wrong year to miss training camp. New OC Todd Haley brings an offensive system nicknamed the "Rosetta Stone" because of its complexity. And while Wallace has flourished, he doesn't have a reputation for being a fast learner. Combine the lack of time learning the new playbook with the risk of conditioning related injuries (hamstrings are a big concern with receivers that haven't stayed in shape), and I'm avoiding him at all costs.

Sigmund Bloom - Jennings has WR1 talent, and he certainly plays in a great offense with a great quarterback. He missed time last year, and his two-week layoff after a concussion during camp casts a shadow over his durability prospects this year. He's just too risky to take in the third round when similar quality options are available well into the fifth round.

Heath Cummings - While Jennings has spent a good portion of the preseason trying to recover from concussion symptoms; Jordy Nelson has spent that timing wowing everyone at camp. Jennings will be the second best receiver in Green Bay this season and is probably one more concussion away from an extended absence.

Ryan Hester - This may be a "cheap" pick because of the concussion effects from which Jennings is suffering, but they're a legitimate concern. Jennings did return to practice on Monday, August 19, but a report also came out that it took so long for him to return because of a second "banging of the head" incident. Any player who has suffered a concussion at any point during the season brings some risk, but to suffer one (and potentially two) before the season ever starts should make prospective owners want to pump the breaks. Also, consider in 2011, Jennings wasn't even the top fantasy WR on his own team (Jordy Nelson was). Jennings and Nelson put up massive numbers last season because Rodgers did and tight end Jermichael Finley didn't. Rodgers regressing or Finley improving would put a dent in Jennings' and Nelson's potential. I'd rather wait for new NFC North rival Brandon Marshall. He doesn't have the benefit of being a key cog in an offense as potent as Green Bay, but he also won't have to give away as many targets to other options.

Aaron Rudnicki - There are few things in today's NFL scarier than concussion problems, especially for a receiver. Jennings has missed time this preseason since suffering a concussion early in training camp. While he clearly has the talent and situation to be a top-10 receiver, the risk of him taking another hit and missing significant time is too much to take him this high. Better to let someone else take that chance considering the players going after him have just as much upside without the same risk.

Sigmund Bloom - A.J. Smith might have doled out starting quality wide receiver money to Meachem, but he hasn't shown that he can be that quality yet in his career. He also hasn't meshed with Philip Rivers during camp and the preseason. Vincent Brown's broken ankle gives Meachem a window to seize a big role, but he hasn't been able to do it with Drew Brees as his quarterback in the past.

Steve Holloway - Meachem disappointed in his four years with the Saints after being drafted in the first round in 2008. He never caught more than 45 passes and averaged only 4 targets per game in the NFL's most prolific passing offense. The Chargers seem to have several #2 level wide receivers for this season and I suspect that Meachem will be the least likely one to provide consistent production. With the injuries to Ryan Mathews and Vincent Brown out for a while with a broken ankle, Meachem's opportunities have increased.

Aaron Rudnicki - During the past three years in New Orleans, Meachem has topped out at 45 receptions and 722 yards. Those numbers came while playing in one of the best passing attacks in the league so how is he going to top them while playing in a lesser offense with the Chargers? He does bring the big play ability that the Chargers lost when Vincent Jackson moved on, but Meachem is just far too inconsistent to draft this early.

Matt Waldman - Norv Turner picks wide receivers like Elizabeth Taylor picked husbands. He's drawn to the bad ones like a magnet and underappreciates the good ones. Meachem isn't necessarily a bad NFL wide receiver; he's just not nearly as good as his billing. He doesn't run great routes and while statistically his catch rates are good, he still has enough issues with his hands that he can't be trusted in higher-risk situations to make the big plays that Vincent Jackson did. Defenses force most teams into these high-risk situations and I think the Chargers will need Meachem to see these kinds of targets that where not required of him in New Orleans. I think the running game, Malcom Floyd, and Antonio Gates relegate Meachem to No.4 in the pecking order, at best.

Jeff Pasquino - Kenny Britt is so promising and so frustrating all at once. He came blazing last year until a Week 3 knee injury cost him the rest of the year. He had surgery back in October but still is not at full strength after ACL and MCL reconstruction. With the Titans adding Kendall Wright at wide receiver and having Nate Washington perform very well as the WR1 last year, Tennessee can afford to be patient with Britt and let him slowly get himself ready for the season. That sounds good for Britt long term, but that can limit his upside (and hint at a strong downside) for 2012. I would not count on him as a fantasy starter for my redraft teams this year.

Mark Wimer - Kenny Britt had surgery May 16, 2012 to relieve swelling in his surgically reconstructed right knee (repaired after week three of the 2011 season). But since then even larger issues have surfaced due to his latest arrest (A DUI on Fort Campbell, KY, July 20). Britt hasn't practiced in training camp due to the sore knee, and he's almost certain to get a lengthy suspension from Roger Goodell - Britt only avoided a suspension last year because his 2011 arrests occured during the lockout when he wasn't technically under Goodell's authority. I expect a minimum of four weeks of suspension, and it could well be more than that, depending on how much the prior arrests weigh on Goodell's scales.

Jason Wood - I've never understood the Kenny Britt obsession. Sure, on a per game basis he's tantalized fantasy owners in 2010 and 2011. But what good are per game number when he missed more time than he plays? In three seasons, he's started just 16 games, and has missed the entire preseason. Does anyone really think Britt is in shape? What part of his demeanor or personality would lead you to that conclusion? Add to that an alarming number of off-the-field arrests and incidents, and this is the kind of knucklehead I happily let someone else take a chance on.

Andy Hicks - There is little doubt that the Buccaneers got the best free agent receiver available, but what are they getting? Jackson is rapidly approaching 30, moves to a side that is starting from scratch, especially on the coaching front. He has a QB that needs to bounce back from a terrible 2nd season and there are other good receiving options available. Jackson has the ability to live up to his draft slot, and more, but it might take him more than half a year for it all to come together. High price free agent receivers often don't work out and I'd urge caution in this instance.

Jeff Pasquino - Vincent Jackson is a volatile choice to be a WR1 in 2012. Switching quarterbacks, organizations and conferences is a risky proposition. Jackson certainly has the talent to remain a top performer, but there are too many things that have to go just right to make him worth as high of a pick that he will cost in most fantasy drafts this season. Expect a year of adjustment that will likely keep him out of the Top 10.

Chris Smith - In terms of just football the acquisition of Vincent Jackson to a young receiving core in Tampa Bay is a major victory for the Buccaneers. His presence will help elevate the offensive attack this season and he will put up solid numbers. However young receiver Mike Williams is a gifted young receiver who can cut into Jackson's production and the addition of talented rookie running back Doug Martin capable of catching passes from backfield, I believe the passes will be spread a little thin for Jackson to justify a fourth-round draft pick. He will have a transitional period this year as he gets used to a new offense and quarterback. I would rather have several players going behind him in fantasy drafts.

Mike Brown - Going into drafts last year, Welker was nowhere near a top-5 wide receiver. His talent level is not anywhere near the level of the other players at the top of the wide receiver chart; he just happens to be a perfect match for the New England offense and has uncanny chemistry with Tom Brady. That sounds like a knock on Welker, but it's the truth. When you look at his year-by-year numbers, the biggest outlier by FAR is 2012. If you want to bet on that now being the new norm for him, you've got bigger stones than I do. And the bigger problem is, there are only so many footballs to go around. Brandon Lloyd is now with the team, and he is going to take a large chunk of the targets. Aaron Hernandez appears improved over last season, and could do likewise. It's hard to sit there and say that Welker could do exactly what he did a year ago and still lose 20% of his fantasy production, but that could very easily happen simply because of all the mouths to feed.

Ryan Hester - Welker's position in this space would be even more warranted in non-PPR leagues, but even here, he still belongs. I'm not claiming that Welker won't end the season as a #1 fantasy WR in 12-team leagues, but I am saying that I don't view him as the top-three option at which he's being drafted. Welker's strengths are short-to-intermediate routes, which also happen to be the strengths of two other incredible pass-catchers on New England's offense (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez). Those two are younger than Welker, and their respective "arrows" are pointing up. Add Brandon Lloyd -- someone who will command many more targets than Chad Ochocinco did -- into the mix, and Welker's very high target numbers should decrease. I like him as a producer -- just not at this price.

Chris Smith - I love Wes Welker and would love to have him on my fantasy squads. He is almost a lock to catch close to 100 passes and 1100 receiving yards. However he has a ton of competition for touches this season in New England with Brandon Lloyd, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez all going to get their share of targets. No way can I justify an ADP of mid-second round for Wes Welker in 2012 unless you get three points per reception in your league.

Jeff Haseley - Larry Fitzgerald may be one of the best wide receivers in the league, but he doesn't have a legit quarterback to throw the ball to him. I expect John Skelton to be the opening day starter and he is the best option for Fitzgerald, however is he a 25+ TD passer? Elite wide receivers aren't at that level simply based on their talent - they need a very capable and productive quarterback to help get them there. Even, Fitzgerald. I'll pass at 12th overall. Give me Julio Jones at that spot.

Jason Wood - Based purely on skill, Larry Fitzgerald is as talented as anyone outside of Calvin Johnson. He's a perennial All Pro caliber player, who would put up dominant numbers on most rosters. Unfortunately, I can't draft him in the late first or early second round given his abysmal quarterback situation. Kevin Kolb has looked like a deer in the headlights, and now it seems John Skelton will get the starting job. Skelton has a strong arm, but that's about it. He would struggle to be the #3 quarterback on many rosters -- and I think his lack of accuracy is going to SLIGHTLY cap Fitzgerald's upside. I think Fitzgerald can be a top 10 receiver with just about anyone throwing him the ball, but I don't see him finishing at or near the top of his position.

Marc Levin - Green had the 4th best rookie wide receiver seasons in the last ten years (the 15th best rookie WR season ever). In such a great season, he finished as the fantasy WR14 in 2011. Owners drafting him as the WR8 are hoping for improvement rather than a sophomore slump. That is fine, but drafting based on hope can burn owners looking for value. In the last ten years, most wide receivers with at least 100 fantasy points in their rookie year scored fewer fantasy points in year two. There are, of course, exceptions. But we make value predictions based on the rule. Therefore, if Green is more likely to score fewer points than last year, then a higher fantasy draft position than his 2011 WR14 finish equates to an overvaluation. This s especially true when proven players like Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, and Steve Smith have later average draft positions.

Mark Wimer - A.J. Green has to face the Steelers (first in the NFL last year, averaging 171.9 net passing yards allowed per game), Browns' (second, 184.9), and Ravens' (fourth, 196.2) pass defense in six of the coming 16 games. He's working with a developing young quarterback, Andy Dalton, who enters his second season - there isn't a long track record of production here, folks. When I spend a pick on a top-10 wide receiver, I look for more than one solid season to justify the expense. I'm avoiding Green at his current #7 ADP.

Sigmund Bloom - Everything eminating from the Jets offense has the scent of a Staten Island garbage dump. Holmes has been hurt, and unable to get in sync with the horrendous passing game, which might not be a bad thing in reality. Still, the idea of numbers being generated by a hookup between Holmes and either Jets quarterback is a laughable one, at least around the same time that you can get ascendant options like Greg Little and Titus Young.

Marc Levin - How could the primary wide receiver on an NFL team, who is available in the 9th round outside the top-36 WRs be an overvalued pick? When you are imploding the way Santonio Holmes is imploding. His mouth this offseason has been legendary, but lots of wide receivers act the fool off-field and are fantasy stars on-field. In fantasy terms, Holmes has not finished above WR30 since he came to the Jets, and that was when he had proven players like Braylon Edwards and Plaxico Burress to take some of the secondary's attention. He has had an injured off-season (currently he is unable to practice due to a rib injury), a rookie slated to start opposite him, and a lack of solid quarterback play whether Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow is at the helm.

Heath Cummings - For a 31 year old receiver that has only finished in the top 8 of fantasy wide receivers twice in his career, a lot of people sure are banking on him doing it again. Johnson is still a physical specimen, no doubt, but the Texans have become a run first team with a dominant defense. He may show flashes of his former self but his time as a truly elite fantasy producer has passed.

Ryan Hester - While Johnson has had seasons in which he has displayed elite skills, I'm not totally sure why he has been anointed as top-three fantasy receiver in 2012. Johnson has never had more than nine touchdowns in any season, and he's clearly in the proverbial "autumn" of his career. His injury history is troubling as well -- not just the number of ailments but the types. I'm no Dr. Jene Bramel, but it seems like hamstring and other soft tissue injuries are more repeatable and always nagging. Taking off the doctor hat (that I admittedly don't wear well), let's go back on the field. Houston is a running team now. They're not the shootout-happy squad they were in Johnson's heyday. Those teams struggled and weren't playoff contenders likely to be salting away leads throughout the season. This team will be. I'd rather roll the dice on a young gun like A.J. Green or an elite size-speed-skills combo guy like Brandon Marshall.

Steve Holloway - The Patriots three leading receivers last season caught 291 passes and they all return. The anticipation is that Lloyd will revitalize the Patriots' ability to pass deep. However, just having Lloyd as a down-field threat will allow Wes Welker, Ron Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to have even more room to work the middle of the field. I believe that Lloyd will increase the overall effectiveness of the Patriots' passing game, but will not improve significantly on the 51 passes that Deion Branch caught a year ago, especially if Branch and Jabar Gaffney also make the team and are given a few targets also.

Chris Smith - I believe Lloyd will have a positive season with the New England Patriots this year. He has become a very good receiver in the NFL and will likely be a starting receiver. However Wes Welker will get his 110+ receptions, the dual-headed monster at tight end will still be the focal point and I believe the Patriots will be more balanced in 2012, with perhaps 80 fewer passing attempts. There will likely be 100 or fewer targets for Lloyd if he fits into what the Patriots are doing and that is just not enough looks to justify a 6th round selection in my opinion. He will also be competing for touches with veterans Deion Branch and Jabar Gaffney who are capable when used.

Jeff Haseley - I have been on the Thomas bandwagon since Peyton Manning came into town, but it's looking more and more like Eric Decker is Manning's receiver of choice. Word out of Denver is that Thomas is struggling to grasp the offense and that he has not developed a good "on the field" rapport with Manning. We know from past experiences that Manning gravitates to those who work hard and work well with him. I would not be surprised if Decker outperforms Thomas this year as a result.

Andy Hicks - There is no doubting the talent of Demaryius Thomas, but what can we expect with Peyton Manning in town. One of the weaknesses in Thomas' game is his route running and Manning needs to trust his receivers to run routes precisely. There are many other options Manning can turn to, if he still has the arm strength, should Thomas prove unreliable and there is a large element of boom/bust with this pick.

Heath Cummings - I feel like Austin has built a career off one pretty amazing season. In 2009 Austin put up 1300 yards and 11 TDs, but he has never come close to those numbers again. His chronic hamstring issues have flared up again and the Cowboys have said he'll be ready week one at the earliest. There are at least ten receivers being drafted after Austin that I would take before him.

Mark Wimer - Dez Bryant shares the limelight in Dallas with Miles Austin - they are 1A and 1B to Tony Romo. Both are excellent receivers, but I think that they'll both demand enough targets that neither will post top-tier fantasy numbers. Bryant looks overvalued at 14th wide receiver selected, especially with his patellar tendinitis issue (knee tendinitis). Also, I think he's a high-risk guy likely for suspension due to off-field misdemeanors or felonies - slapping around your own mother doesn't get you high marks in my book.

Mark Wimer - Marques Colston is a fine player, but at 29 he's now got six seasons of NFL pounding recorded in his frame. He's only played a full 16 games twice in his career, and the last time he managed that trick was in 2009. He'll see a steady diet of targets and receptions from Drew Brees, but with the coaching staff upset by the suspension of Sean Payton I see a regression coming in New Orleans, which the aging Colston's numbers will reflect this year.

Andy Hicks - Last year was absolutely wonderful for those who managed to grab Victor Cruz as a free agent or late in deep drafts. When a player comes out of nowhere and has such a high ADP in their next season, I'm just a little bit wary. Cruz could come out and repeat, but if he is going to be my WR1/2 I need more to go on than one potential fluke season. Putting him back a round or 2 would make him worth the risk, but right now that seems unlikely to happen.

Marc Levin - Man, the Peyton Manning coattails are enormous. No matter how reasonable it might be to think Manning will make the Denver Bronco receivers better, Decker is the WR2 on the team. He is being drafted ahead of the presumptive first options for Indianapolis (Reggie Wayne), Washington (Pierre Garcon), San Diego (Robert Meachem), and Oakland (Denarius Moore). He is being drafted four rounds ahead of Titus Young and Lance Moore, who are the second wide receivers on established prolific offenses in Detroit and New Orleans. I will admit the reports from Broncos camp are cause for optimism about stability in the team's passing game. But, the Broncos are a defense-minded, ball control team. The presence of Peyton Manning is not enough for me to believe Decker's targets will warrant his cost on draft day.

Jeff Pasquino - Garcon signed on to be the number one wide receiver in Washington, but this just screams "Alvin Harper" all over again. Garcon is a second wide receiver who does not beat top coverage, yet he will face it nearly every week in the NFC East. Garcon will struggle as the top target for the Redskins and those expecting a big first year in Washington will be sorely disappointed.

Jeff Pasquino - Harvin is the top wide receiver in Minnesota, but the Vikings really do not have much else besides him anyway. Harvin will face double coverages all year long until another wideout emerges in Minnesota. Harvin is a good receiver and can put up solid numbers, but with issues all over the Minnesota offense (Adrian Peterson injury, young quarterback, questionable WR2) it might be very difficult for him to be more than a fantasy WR2 in 2012.

Aaron Rudnicki - Jones is certainly a very talented player who finished his rookie season strong last year, but I just don't see him putting up top-5 numbers over the entire year. Roddy White is still the better receiver and he should get most of the targets in Atlanta, plus Tony Gonzalez will get his share of looks in the red zone. Jones is primarily a deep threat who will probably have some huge games and some big gains, but he loses some value in PPR leagues. I think owners taking him this high are setting themselves up for disappointment, and there are a handful of players I'd rather take at this spot.

Andy Hicks - Brandon Marshall once again changes teams. His talent is obvious for all to see and he is one of the most imposing receivers in the game, but can you trust him to be happy and productive? A 3rd round pick is a high price for a Chicago receiver, despite Jay Cutler being under center. Given Marshall's off field incidents and his seemingly fragile psyche, I would let someone else take the shot unless he dropped just a little bit further in drafts.

Jeff Haseley - I am a fan of Moore, when he plays and he's healthy, but he just can't stay on the field. Oakland has capable receivers waiting in the wings to take his role, including rookies Juron Criner and Rod Streater. If Moore gets squeezed out of snaps and therefore targets, it would not surprise me.

Jason Wood - I'm proud of myself. Usually I'm the guy taking the formerly-great-now-old receivers late as sleepers: Terrell Owens, Chad Johnson, Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward, Isaac Bruce and, yes, Randy Moss. Theoretically Moss could be great this year. But he's been out of football since 2010, and is playing on an offense that's conservative at its best. I think Moss will help the 49ers win games, but I don't see him getting enough targets to matter to fantasy owners.

Mike Brown - Hey look, the Jaguars signed Alvin Harper. Ok not quite, but the story of the Dallas receiver who parlays a big statistical season into a big payday from a Florida team seems too similar to be just a coincidence. Robinson has long had the ability to be a player and finally enjoyed some success a year ago. But I'm of the strong belief that it was his position on the team and system he was in that was far more critical to his success than him suddenly finding his game. On a run-first Jacksonville team led by a wildly inconsistent quarterback and an explosive rookie receiver lining up across from him, Robinson won't have nearly the opportunity to put up big games as he did a year ago.

Heath Cummings - Smith had a phenomenal year in 2011, and looked like he could do that forever. He can't. For one thing, I think Cam Newton regresses a little in 2012; defenses have had a full offseason to figure out how to slow him down and they will. Smith has had an amazing career, proving doubters wrong for much of it, but I view last season as his last gasp of greatness, not a trend you should bet on.

Steve Holloway - A year ago Nate Washington finished as WR16 catching 74 passes for 1,023 yards and 7 TDs. In his six previous seasons, he never caught more than 47 passes and averaged catching 32. It really was a combination of factors at work, mostly the lack of receiver talent for the Titans after Kenny Britt went down for the year in the third game. This year, they are switching to second year quarterback Jake Locker and will have some offensive growing pains, particularly in the passing game. They will have Britt back for most of the year and have added rookie Kendall Wright. I expect that Washington might have had a career year a season ago.

Steve Holloway - Young had a respectable rookie season catching 48 passes for 607 yards and 6 TDs. He only ranked #4 on the Lions in targets though with 96 behind Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew and Nate Burleson. This yearthe team added Ryan Broyles to the corps to potentially further deplete the target pool. Young only ranked 46th a year ago. Most think that the Lions should pass less this year as they led the NFL in passing attempts a year ago. If they can establish a hint of a running attack, that reduction would be more likely. Young should remain as the fourth option in the passing game.