Overvalued WRsRead the introduction to this series if you haven't yet.
|Kenny Britt - TEN ADP: 55 overall, WR 22||7 votes|
Andy Hicks - Kenny Britt looked like he was in for a WR1 season last year before injury struck. Given his penchant for off field mischief, his recovery from injury and his reputation for not giving a 100% and I would be wary of drafting him as my WR2. He offers magnificent upside should it all come together, but his downside is terrifying. If you have safer options with your first 4 picks, then by all means have take him, but take extra depth just in case.
Marc Levin - Britt tore his ACL in late September of 2011. He recently had a second procedure on that same knee. His coach mentioned he is likely to sit out some preseason games in hopes of saving him for the regular season. None of these pieces of evidence comfort me that Britt will be back to full strength prior to one year after his surgery. There is a battle for the starting quarterback spot and Britt will lose his opportunity to develop chemistry with the winning quarterback. Oh, and the team drafted a first round wide receiver who will provide competition for looks. Taking Britt in the 5th round as a WR2 when there are better options on the board is too risky a move to be justified.
Jeff Pasquino - Kenny Britt is so promising and so frustrating all at once. He came blazing last year until a Week 3 knee injury cost him the rest of the year. He had surgery back in October but still is not at full strength after ACL and MCL reconstruction. With the Titans adding Kendall Wright at wide receiver and having Nate Washington perform very well as the WR1 last year, Tennessee can afford to be patient with Britt and let him slowly get himself ready for the season. That sounds good for Britt long term, but that can limit his upside (and hint at a strong downside) for 2012. I would not count on him as a fantasy starter for my redraft teams this year.
Matt Waldman - Sure, he's talented, but he just had a second surgery on his knee after mini camp. He's supposed to be ready for training camp, but two surgeries on the same knee are a concern for me. There's enough talent at receiver in the middle and late rounds this year that I don't see the investment in Britt as the smartest risk in 2012. Count me out until I hear he looks great and without swelling or mobility issues.
Mark Wimer - Kenny Britt had surgery May 16, 2012 to relieve swelling in his surgically reconstructed right knee (repaired after week three of the 2011 season). The continuing issues with the injured knee and the arrival of Kendall Wright via the NFL Draft have knocked Britt all the way off my wide receiver board - he's WAY too expensive at 22nd wide receiver off the board.
Jason Wood - You would think Kenny Britt was a proven fantasy star getting a slight discount because of last year's injury. But that would be revisionist history. Yes, he caught nine touchdowns in 12 games in 2010. But he also had just 42 receptions and 775 yards. Last year he missed the preseason with a hamstring injury, looked GREAT for two games, and then tore up his MCL and ACL. As if that weren't bad enough, Britt had to undergo a second knee procedure in May and will probably miss much of training camp. This is not a guy that profiles as someone I want in my lineup each and every week -- yet his ADP places him in that tier. Thanks but no thanks.
|Dez Bryant - DAL ADP: 41 overall, WR 14||4 votes|
Jeff Tefertiller - While he's uber-talented, let someone else spend the fourth round pick on Dez Bryant. Anyone spending this high of pick is betting that Bryant will finally put it all together. Why not draft safer players like Percy Harvin or Steve Smith, both of whom are coming off big years? Further, Bryant's teammate Miles Austin has a great chance to outproduce him once again. Bryant gets the publicity but Austin has earned the trust of quarterback Tony Romo. The young receiver is still very immature on and off the field. His talent just makes Bryant a tease for fantasy owners.
Mark Wimer - Dez Bryant shares the limelight in Dallas with Miles Austin - they are 1A and 1B to Tony Romo. Both are excellent receivers, but I think that they'll both demand enough targets that neither will post top-tier fantasy numbers. Bryant looks overvalued at 14th wide receiver selected.
David Yudkin - Bryant is getting picked as the 14th receiver off the board, but he's only ranked as 27th best scoring fantasy wide out over the past two seasons. Some of that may be due to injuries to Tony Romo, but Bryant may not have improved as much as his fantasy owners are giving him credit for.
|Vincent Jackson - TB ADP: 46 overall, WR 19||4 votes|
Jeff Pasquino - Vincent Jackson is a volatile choice to be a WR1 in 2012. Switching quarterbacks, organizations and conferences is a risky proposition. Jackson certainly has the talent to remain a top performer, but there are too many things that have to go just right to make him worth as high of a pick that he will cost in most fantasy drafts this season. Expect a year of adjustment that will likely keep him out of the Top 10.
Chris Smith - In terms of just football the acquisition of Vincent Jackson to a young receiving core in Tampa Bay is a major victory for the Buccaneers. His presence will help elevate the offensive attack this season and he will put up solid numbers. However with young receivers such as Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn on the team and the addition of talented rookie running back Doug Martin capable of catching passes from backfield, I believe the passes will be spread a little thin for Jackson to justify a fourth-round draft pick.
Jeff Tefertiller - History has not been kind to high profile receivers changing teams. Yes, there are some outliers, but the odds are not in the favor of Vincent Jackson repeating the numbers he had in San Diego. He gets a step down in quarterback play from Philip Rivers to Josh Freeman and goes to a young team without much offensive consistency. The situation is not set up for Jackson to live up to his fourth round value. He will make some big plays, but not in a consistent manner. The new Tampa Bay coaches will want to assert the running game. This is a shaky situation to invest such a high pick.
|Hakeem Nicks - NYG ADP: 28 overall, WR 7||4 votes|
Aaron Rudnicki - There is little doubt that Nicks would be worthy of this ADP if he was completely healthy, but he recently underwent foot surgery that could keep him out up until the end of the preseason. If there is any type of setback during his recovery process, then there is an even greater chance he could miss the opener or more. He's shown that he can be effective playing through injuries already, but in the early 3rd round I'd probably prefer to go with a safer player.
Maurile Tremblay - There's a lot to like about Hakeem Nicks, but his average draft position is too high for my tastes. Nicks is a strong receiver with excellent hands, but Victor Cruz has more big-play potential and I think he could get a larger share of the targets this season.
Jason Wood - Nicks has the talent and opportunity to be the #1 receiver in fantasy. He's that good. But a broken foot and requisite surgery make it unlikely Nicks will be ready for the start of the season. If you're going to draft a player in the first round or two, you need to be reasonably confident he's going to give you a full season -- and Nicks seems unlikely to do that. On a per game basis, he should be a top 10 receiver, but he's a bit too risky to draft without a round or two discount to factor in the possibility of the foot healing slowly.
|Roddy White - ATL ADP: 22 overall, WR 4||4 votes|
Bruce Hammond - Roddy White has an ADP of WR4 and had 115 and 100 catches the last two seasons. While he'll still be solid in 2012, I believe 2011 will prove to be the last truly elite statistical year for White. He said very recently the Falcons will not be emphasizing him as much going forward. "We switched some things up. We are doing the things [offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter] likes to do. He's a smart guy, and he knows what we do best." This makes sense to me, and I was already expecting less production from White before those comments. Now beginning to get a bit past his prime (age 31 in November) and with Julio Jones an elite talent entering his second year, a changing of the guard to some degree is reasonable.
Bob Henry - No disrespect meant toward Roddy White, because he's a fantastic receiver, but I expect his role to change a bit in 2012 as the Falcons begin to open up their offense even more and funnel some of those targets that previously went to Roddy over to Julio Jones. He'll still be a rock solid WR2 for fantasy owners, but drafting him at this current ADP might lead owners into a frustrating spot if he can't or doesn't deliver the numbers he has over the past couple of seasons.
Jason Wood - Roddy White has quietly been one of the league's best and most consistent receivers over the last five years, and has back-to-back 100 reception seasons. But White has spoken openly about the importance of more offensive balance, and the emergence of Julio Jones lends credence to the notion White will see fewer targets in 2012 and beyond. To be clear, White will still catch 80+ receptions, but that can be the difference between earning his top 5 ADP and falling a bit short of his fantasy managers' hopes.
|Greg Jennings - GB ADP: 23 overall, WR 5||3 votes|
Jeff Haseley - I like Greg Jennings, simply due to his place on one of the best offenses in the league. However he is not the uncontested WR1 on his team. Jordy Nelson completely outperformed Jennings from a fantasy standpoint last year, outscoring him by 6 TDs and nearly 300 receiving yards in three more games. Jennings can still produce, but he is not a lock to be the best WR on his team any given week, which is a red flag for me when choosing my WR1.
Ryan Hester - Jennings is the most accomplished WR on one of the league's best passing offenses. However, what makes that offense so prolific is the multitude of weapons at Aaron Rodgers' disposal. In fact, Jennings wasn't even the top fantasy WR on his own team last season (Jordy Nelson was). While he will put up nice numbers simply by showing up healthy enough to play, I don't see him as a top-8 option simply because there's so much bread to butter in Green Bay. Jennings and Nelson put up massive numbers last season because Rodgers did and tight end Jermichael Finley didn't. Rodgers regressing or Finley improving would put a dent in Jennings' and Nelson's potential. I'd rather wait for Julio Jones (30) or Brandon Marshall (33). They don't have the pro of being in the Green Bay pass attack, but they are more prominently featured in their respective offenses.
|Wes Welker - NE ADP: 24 overall, WR 6||3 votes|
Ryan Hester - Welker's position in this space would be even more warranted in non-PPR leagues, but even here, he still belongs. I'm not claiming that Welker won't end the season as a #1 fantasy WR in 12-team leagues, but I am saying that I don't view him as a top-6 option. Welker's strengths are short-to-intermediate routes, which also happen to be the strengths of two other incredible pass-catchers on New England's offense (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez). Those two are younger than Welker, and their respective "arrows" are pointing up. Add Brandon Lloyd -- someone who will command many more targets than Chad Ochocinco did -- into the mix, and Welker's very high target numbers should decrease. I like him as a producer -- just not at this price. Some guys I'd take instead of Welker that are being drafted behind him are: Julio Jones (30), Brandon Marshall (33), Dez Bryant (37).
Dave Larkin - My feelings on Wes Welker's prospects for this season are tempered by the presence of Brandon Lloyd, a new toy for Tom Brady to play with in this offense. New England has something very special brewing with their two tight ends, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski as well. The presence of Lloyd, Gronkowski and Hernandez mean that Welker's targets will inevitably decrease. Last season he produced his best season as a pro, finishing as the No. 3 wide receiver according to Footballguys scoring; a repeat of such numbers is not likely. The pint-sized receiver is a little overvalued in my opinion.
|Justin Blackmon - JAX ADP: 97 overall, WR 37||2 votes|
Maurile Tremblay - A rookie wide receiver with Blaine Gabbert throwing to him? No thanks. I expect the Jaguars to be one of the few teams in the league to run more than they pass. And when they do pass, I see Laurent Robinson rather than Justin Blackmon as the most frequently targeted wide receiver. Blackmon is a tremendous talent, but he's in a horrendous situation.
|Victor Cruz - NYG ADP: 36 overall, WR 12||2 votes|
Dave Larkin - As well as running in touchdowns off tipped passes and salsa dancing when he reaches pay dirt, Victor Cruz has shown the entire football world that he has arrived and he is here to stay. After switching between the slot and the outside in 2011, this season should see Cruz revert to a slot-heavy role where he can fully utilise his quickness and speed out of his breaks. Cruz's talent is phenomenal, but it is worth remembering that some of his biggest plays were his long touchdowns, including a 99-yarder, a 72-yarder and a 74-yarder. If he remains in the slot for the majority of his snaps, these opportunities may not present themselves as often. Do not misinterpret my words here: I still think Cruz will be the de facto second option in this offense after Hakeem Nicks, but hoping for 1,500 or more yards may be stretching it a little bit.
|Eric Decker - DEN ADP: 74 overall, WR 28||2 votes|
Jeff Pasquino - Eric Decker will be the starter opposite of Demaryius Thomas and -- more importantly -- have a much better quarterback this year in Peyton Manning. Now for the downside. Decker has not looked good so far with Manning in OTAs and he will likely be no higher than the third target for Manning after Thomas and tight end Jacob Tamme. Decker's value is mostly tied to Manning and the upside that could present, but there is no guarantee of Manning's health or Decker getting on the same page right off the bat. I like Decker in general but he does not deserve to be a Top 30 fantasy selection. I do not see enough upside at that ADP and would only consider him in the WR4 (37+ range).
|A.J. Green - CIN ADP: 29 overall, WR 8||2 votes|
Mark Wimer - A.J. Green has to face the Steelers (first in the NFL last year, averaging 171.9 net passing yards allowed per game), Browns' (second, 184.9), and Ravens' (fourth, 196.2) pass defense in six of the coming 16 games. He's working with a developing young quarterback, Andy Dalton, who enters his second season - there isn't a long track record of production here, folks. When I spend a pick on a top-10 wide receiver, I look for more than one solid season to justify the expense.
|Brandon Lloyd - NE ADP: 66 overall, WR 27||2 votes|
Chris Smith - I believe Lloyd will have a positive season with the New England Patriots this year. He has become a very good receiver in the NFL and will likely be a starting receiver. However Wes Welker will get his 110+ receptions, the dual-headed monster at tight end will still be the focal point and I believe the Patriots will be more balanced in 2012, with perhaps 80 fewer passing attempts. There will likely be 100 or fewer targets for Lloyd if he fits into what the Patriots are doing and that is just not enough looks to justify a 6th round selection in my opinion. He will also be competing for touches with veterans Deion Branch and Jabar Gaffney who are capable when used.
|Robert Meachem - SD ADP: 83 overall, WR 32||2 votes|
Aaron Rudnicki - For such a highly drafted player, I always felt that Meachem was a disappointment in New Orleans. Despite playing in one of the league's most potent passing attacks, he hasn't topped 45 catches or 722 yards in a single season yet. The situation in San Diego may not be too dissimilar from the one he just left. There are enough other weapons around like Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd to limit his targets, and I think Meachem is likely being drafted a couple rounds ahead of where he should.
|Sidney Rice - SEA ADP: 94 overall, WR 36||2 votes|
Jason Wood - Rice is as brittle as rice paper. He has talent, and Matt Flynn will be the best quarterback he's played with since Brett Favre. But I can't get past the 15 games played in the last two seasons.
|Steve Smith - CAR ADP: 43 overall, WR 16||2 votes|
Bruce Hammond - Smith has an ADP of WR16, and while he had an outstanding 2011 season with nearly 1,400 yards receiving, I'm not expecting a similar performance in 2012. Maybe he continues to defy Father Time at age 33, but the odds get stronger that the fall off is coming. I don't want to be the guy investing a WR16 pick in him, not with Brandon LaFell beginning to emerge, David Gettis back from injury (out all of 2011), and Cam Newton more secure in his ability to see the whole field. Smith will no longer be the only show in town and his stats will suffer for it.
|Miles Austin - DAL ADP: 45 overall, WR 18||1 vote|
|Anquan Boldin - BAL ADP: 93 overall, WR 35||1 vote|
|Dwayne Bowe - KC ADP: 49 overall, WR 20||1 vote|
|Antonio Brown - PIT ADP: 65 overall, WR 26||1 vote|
|Marques Colston - NO ADP: 44 overall, WR 17||1 vote|
|Larry Fitzgerald - ARI ADP: 12 overall, WR 2||1 vote|
|Pierre Garcon - WAS ADP: 82 overall, WR 31||1 vote|
|Percy Harvin - MIN ADP: 42 overall, WR 15||1 vote|
|Santonio Holmes - NYJ ADP: 91 overall, WR 34||1 vote|
|Andre Johnson - HOU ADP: 16 overall, WR 3||1 vote|
|Julio Jones - ATL ADP: 38 overall, WR 13||1 vote|
|Brandon Marshall - CHI ADP: 33 overall, WR 11||1 vote|
|Jordy Nelson - GB ADP: 32 overall, WR 10||1 vote|
|Laurent Robinson - JAX ADP: 118 overall, WR 44||1 vote|
|Mike Wallace - PIT ADP: 30 overall, WR 9||1 vote|
|Titus Young - DET ADP: 110 overall, WR 43||1 vote|