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Overvalued WRs

Read the introduction to this series if you haven't yet.

Kenny Britt - TEN ADP: 55 overall, WR 22 7 votes

Jeff Haseley - Britt's second surgery to relieve swelling in his knee is cause for me to be concerned about selecting him as a starting WR in my lineup. When healthy, he is an elite WR in the league and deserves to be drafted as one. However, until that's the case, I am staying away.

Andy Hicks - Kenny Britt looked like he was in for a WR1 season last year before injury struck. Given his penchant for off field mischief, his recovery from injury and his reputation for not giving a 100% and I would be wary of drafting him as my WR2. He offers magnificent upside should it all come together, but his downside is terrifying. If you have safer options with your first 4 picks, then by all means have take him, but take extra depth just in case.

Marc Levin - Britt tore his ACL in late September of 2011. He recently had a second procedure on that same knee. His coach mentioned he is likely to sit out some preseason games in hopes of saving him for the regular season. None of these pieces of evidence comfort me that Britt will be back to full strength prior to one year after his surgery. There is a battle for the starting quarterback spot and Britt will lose his opportunity to develop chemistry with the winning quarterback. Oh, and the team drafted a first round wide receiver who will provide competition for looks. Taking Britt in the 5th round as a WR2 when there are better options on the board is too risky a move to be justified.

Jeff Pasquino - Kenny Britt is so promising and so frustrating all at once. He came blazing last year until a Week 3 knee injury cost him the rest of the year. He had surgery back in October but still is not at full strength after ACL and MCL reconstruction. With the Titans adding Kendall Wright at wide receiver and having Nate Washington perform very well as the WR1 last year, Tennessee can afford to be patient with Britt and let him slowly get himself ready for the season. That sounds good for Britt long term, but that can limit his upside (and hint at a strong downside) for 2012. I would not count on him as a fantasy starter for my redraft teams this year.

Matt Waldman - Sure, he's talented, but he just had a second surgery on his knee after mini camp. He's supposed to be ready for training camp, but two surgeries on the same knee are a concern for me. There's enough talent at receiver in the middle and late rounds this year that I don't see the investment in Britt as the smartest risk in 2012. Count me out until I hear he looks great and without swelling or mobility issues.

Mark Wimer - Kenny Britt had surgery May 16, 2012 to relieve swelling in his surgically reconstructed right knee (repaired after week three of the 2011 season). The continuing issues with the injured knee and the arrival of Kendall Wright via the NFL Draft have knocked Britt all the way off my wide receiver board - he's WAY too expensive at 22nd wide receiver off the board.

Jason Wood - You would think Kenny Britt was a proven fantasy star getting a slight discount because of last year's injury. But that would be revisionist history. Yes, he caught nine touchdowns in 12 games in 2010. But he also had just 42 receptions and 775 yards. Last year he missed the preseason with a hamstring injury, looked GREAT for two games, and then tore up his MCL and ACL. As if that weren't bad enough, Britt had to undergo a second knee procedure in May and will probably miss much of training camp. This is not a guy that profiles as someone I want in my lineup each and every week -- yet his ADP places him in that tier. Thanks but no thanks.

Dez Bryant - DAL ADP: 41 overall, WR 14 4 votes

Jeff Haseley - Dez Bryant reminds me of Terrell Owens without the heart. His lack of work ethic compared to the league's best at his position will keep him from becoming one of the best WRs in the league. Talent will only get him so far. Until he figures that out, I just don't see him emerging as an elite WR.

Jeff Tefertiller - While he's uber-talented, let someone else spend the fourth round pick on Dez Bryant. Anyone spending this high of pick is betting that Bryant will finally put it all together. Why not draft safer players like Percy Harvin or Steve Smith, both of whom are coming off big years? Further, Bryant's teammate Miles Austin has a great chance to outproduce him once again. Bryant gets the publicity but Austin has earned the trust of quarterback Tony Romo. The young receiver is still very immature on and off the field. His talent just makes Bryant a tease for fantasy owners.

Mark Wimer - Dez Bryant shares the limelight in Dallas with Miles Austin - they are 1A and 1B to Tony Romo. Both are excellent receivers, but I think that they'll both demand enough targets that neither will post top-tier fantasy numbers. Bryant looks overvalued at 14th wide receiver selected.

David Yudkin - Bryant is getting picked as the 14th receiver off the board, but he's only ranked as 27th best scoring fantasy wide out over the past two seasons. Some of that may be due to injuries to Tony Romo, but Bryant may not have improved as much as his fantasy owners are giving him credit for.

Vincent Jackson - TB ADP: 46 overall, WR 19 4 votes

Andy Hicks - There is little doubt that the Buccaneers got the best free agent receiver available, but what are they getting? Jackson is rapidly approaching 30, moves to a side that is starting from scratch, has a QB that needs to bounce back from a terrible 2nd season and have other good receiving options available. Jackson has the ability to live up to his draft slot, and more, but it might take him a season for it all to come together. High price free agent receivers often don't work out and I'd urge caution in this instance.

Jeff Pasquino - Vincent Jackson is a volatile choice to be a WR1 in 2012. Switching quarterbacks, organizations and conferences is a risky proposition. Jackson certainly has the talent to remain a top performer, but there are too many things that have to go just right to make him worth as high of a pick that he will cost in most fantasy drafts this season. Expect a year of adjustment that will likely keep him out of the Top 10.

Chris Smith - In terms of just football the acquisition of Vincent Jackson to a young receiving core in Tampa Bay is a major victory for the Buccaneers. His presence will help elevate the offensive attack this season and he will put up solid numbers. However with young receivers such as Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn on the team and the addition of talented rookie running back Doug Martin capable of catching passes from backfield, I believe the passes will be spread a little thin for Jackson to justify a fourth-round draft pick.

Jeff Tefertiller - History has not been kind to high profile receivers changing teams. Yes, there are some outliers, but the odds are not in the favor of Vincent Jackson repeating the numbers he had in San Diego. He gets a step down in quarterback play from Philip Rivers to Josh Freeman and goes to a young team without much offensive consistency. The situation is not set up for Jackson to live up to his fourth round value. He will make some big plays, but not in a consistent manner. The new Tampa Bay coaches will want to assert the running game. This is a shaky situation to invest such a high pick.

Hakeem Nicks - NYG ADP: 28 overall, WR 7 4 votes

Mike Brown - This one might be sort of a cop-out, because it's unlikely that Nicks' broken foot has been factored much into his average draft position. And this may very well change as we get closer to Week 1 and Nicks might actually end up presenting a value if he falls too far down the list. But at this moment, if I'm drafting I'm not going near him at pick #28.

Aaron Rudnicki - There is little doubt that Nicks would be worthy of this ADP if he was completely healthy, but he recently underwent foot surgery that could keep him out up until the end of the preseason. If there is any type of setback during his recovery process, then there is an even greater chance he could miss the opener or more. He's shown that he can be effective playing through injuries already, but in the early 3rd round I'd probably prefer to go with a safer player.

Maurile Tremblay - There's a lot to like about Hakeem Nicks, but his average draft position is too high for my tastes. Nicks is a strong receiver with excellent hands, but Victor Cruz has more big-play potential and I think he could get a larger share of the targets this season.

Jason Wood - Nicks has the talent and opportunity to be the #1 receiver in fantasy. He's that good. But a broken foot and requisite surgery make it unlikely Nicks will be ready for the start of the season. If you're going to draft a player in the first round or two, you need to be reasonably confident he's going to give you a full season -- and Nicks seems unlikely to do that. On a per game basis, he should be a top 10 receiver, but he's a bit too risky to draft without a round or two discount to factor in the possibility of the foot healing slowly.

Roddy White - ATL ADP: 22 overall, WR 4 4 votes

Mike Brown - If it wasn't obvious to those watching a year ago, the thought at least crossed your mind. And that thought is that Julio Jones may already be a more explosive receiver than White. Heading into year two, Jones looks poised to become the go-to guy in the offense and render White as the clear second banana. It's not so much that White is dropping off (he had arguably his second-best statistical season a year ago), it's just that I believe so much in Jones.

Bruce Hammond - Roddy White has an ADP of WR4 and had 115 and 100 catches the last two seasons. While he'll still be solid in 2012, I believe 2011 will prove to be the last truly elite statistical year for White. He said very recently the Falcons will not be emphasizing him as much going forward. "We switched some things up. We are doing the things [offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter] likes to do. He's a smart guy, and he knows what we do best." This makes sense to me, and I was already expecting less production from White before those comments. Now beginning to get a bit past his prime (age 31 in November) and with Julio Jones an elite talent entering his second year, a changing of the guard to some degree is reasonable.

Bob Henry - No disrespect meant toward Roddy White, because he's a fantastic receiver, but I expect his role to change a bit in 2012 as the Falcons begin to open up their offense even more and funnel some of those targets that previously went to Roddy over to Julio Jones. He'll still be a rock solid WR2 for fantasy owners, but drafting him at this current ADP might lead owners into a frustrating spot if he can't or doesn't deliver the numbers he has over the past couple of seasons.

Jason Wood - Roddy White has quietly been one of the league's best and most consistent receivers over the last five years, and has back-to-back 100 reception seasons. But White has spoken openly about the importance of more offensive balance, and the emergence of Julio Jones lends credence to the notion White will see fewer targets in 2012 and beyond. To be clear, White will still catch 80+ receptions, but that can be the difference between earning his top 5 ADP and falling a bit short of his fantasy managers' hopes.

Greg Jennings - GB ADP: 23 overall, WR 5 3 votes

Heath Cummings - No matter how good the Packers offense is, I have a hard time taking the second most productive receiver on his own team in the second round. A lot of where you take Jennings depends on whether you think he can retake his position as Aaron Rodgers' top target; I do not.

Jeff Haseley - I like Greg Jennings, simply due to his place on one of the best offenses in the league. However he is not the uncontested WR1 on his team. Jordy Nelson completely outperformed Jennings from a fantasy standpoint last year, outscoring him by 6 TDs and nearly 300 receiving yards in three more games. Jennings can still produce, but he is not a lock to be the best WR on his team any given week, which is a red flag for me when choosing my WR1.

Ryan Hester - Jennings is the most accomplished WR on one of the league's best passing offenses. However, what makes that offense so prolific is the multitude of weapons at Aaron Rodgers' disposal. In fact, Jennings wasn't even the top fantasy WR on his own team last season (Jordy Nelson was). While he will put up nice numbers simply by showing up healthy enough to play, I don't see him as a top-8 option simply because there's so much bread to butter in Green Bay. Jennings and Nelson put up massive numbers last season because Rodgers did and tight end Jermichael Finley didn't. Rodgers regressing or Finley improving would put a dent in Jennings' and Nelson's potential. I'd rather wait for Julio Jones (30) or Brandon Marshall (33). They don't have the pro of being in the Green Bay pass attack, but they are more prominently featured in their respective offenses.

Wes Welker - NE ADP: 24 overall, WR 6 3 votes

Bob Henry - It's easy to sit back and plug in Welker for another 100+ receptions and assume that he'll continue to be a top 5 fantasy receiver, but I'm approaching Welker with more caution this year. With Brandon Lloyd in the fold, the Patriots finally have a legitimate deep threat to open up the middle of the field and allow Brady to attack defenses differently. Not only will Lloyd command some of those targets that previously went to Welker, but the Patriots backfield could see more targets after catching a paltry 37 combined passes in 2011. Welker's a safe pick, for sure, but in non-PPR leagues, I wouldn't draft him any higher than at the bottom of the WR1s, and certainly not near the top 5 or 6 off the board.

Ryan Hester - Welker's position in this space would be even more warranted in non-PPR leagues, but even here, he still belongs. I'm not claiming that Welker won't end the season as a #1 fantasy WR in 12-team leagues, but I am saying that I don't view him as a top-6 option. Welker's strengths are short-to-intermediate routes, which also happen to be the strengths of two other incredible pass-catchers on New England's offense (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez). Those two are younger than Welker, and their respective "arrows" are pointing up. Add Brandon Lloyd -- someone who will command many more targets than Chad Ochocinco did -- into the mix, and Welker's very high target numbers should decrease. I like him as a producer -- just not at this price. Some guys I'd take instead of Welker that are being drafted behind him are: Julio Jones (30), Brandon Marshall (33), Dez Bryant (37).

Dave Larkin - My feelings on Wes Welker's prospects for this season are tempered by the presence of Brandon Lloyd, a new toy for Tom Brady to play with in this offense. New England has something very special brewing with their two tight ends, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski as well. The presence of Lloyd, Gronkowski and Hernandez mean that Welker's targets will inevitably decrease. Last season he produced his best season as a pro, finishing as the No. 3 wide receiver according to Footballguys scoring; a repeat of such numbers is not likely. The pint-sized receiver is a little overvalued in my opinion.

Justin Blackmon - JAX ADP: 97 overall, WR 37 2 votes

Aaron Rudnicki - I'm a fan of Blackmon the player but hate the situation he landed in on draft day. Blaine Gabbert still has a ways to go before he develops into an average NFL quarterback, so it would be expecting a lot for him to turn a rookie receiver into a fantasy starter right out of the gate. The recent arrest for drunk driving also isn't going to do him any favors with his new team or with the commissioner's office.

Maurile Tremblay - A rookie wide receiver with Blaine Gabbert throwing to him? No thanks. I expect the Jaguars to be one of the few teams in the league to run more than they pass. And when they do pass, I see Laurent Robinson rather than Justin Blackmon as the most frequently targeted wide receiver. Blackmon is a tremendous talent, but he's in a horrendous situation.

Victor Cruz - NYG ADP: 36 overall, WR 12 2 votes

Andy Hicks - Last year was absolutely wonderful for those who managed to grab Victor Cruz. When a player comes out of nowhere and has a such a high ADP in their next seasn, I'm just a little bit wary. Cruz could come out and repeat, but if he is going to be my WR1/2 I need more to go on than one potential fluke season. Putting him back a round or 2 would make him worth the risk, but right now that seems unlikely to happen.

Dave Larkin - As well as running in touchdowns off tipped passes and salsa dancing when he reaches pay dirt, Victor Cruz has shown the entire football world that he has arrived and he is here to stay. After switching between the slot and the outside in 2011, this season should see Cruz revert to a slot-heavy role where he can fully utilise his quickness and speed out of his breaks. Cruz's talent is phenomenal, but it is worth remembering that some of his biggest plays were his long touchdowns, including a 99-yarder, a 72-yarder and a 74-yarder. If he remains in the slot for the majority of his snaps, these opportunities may not present themselves as often. Do not misinterpret my words here: I still think Cruz will be the de facto second option in this offense after Hakeem Nicks, but hoping for 1,500 or more yards may be stretching it a little bit.

Eric Decker - DEN ADP: 74 overall, WR 28 2 votes

Marc Levin - Man, the Peyton Manning coattails are enormous. No matter how reasonable it might be to think Manning will make the Denver Bronco receivers better, Decker is the WR2 on the team. He is being drafted ahead of the presumptive first options for Indianapolis (Reggie Wayne), Washington (Pierre Garcon), San Diego (Robert Meachem), Oakland (Denarius Moore), New York Jets (Santonio Holmes), and both of the top Baltimore receivers. The presence of Peyton Manning is not enough to get me to pay that high a price for an unproven WR2 on a run-first team.

Jeff Pasquino - Eric Decker will be the starter opposite of Demaryius Thomas and -- more importantly -- have a much better quarterback this year in Peyton Manning. Now for the downside. Decker has not looked good so far with Manning in OTAs and he will likely be no higher than the third target for Manning after Thomas and tight end Jacob Tamme. Decker's value is mostly tied to Manning and the upside that could present, but there is no guarantee of Manning's health or Decker getting on the same page right off the bat. I like Decker in general but he does not deserve to be a Top 30 fantasy selection. I do not see enough upside at that ADP and would only consider him in the WR4 (37+ range).

A.J. Green - CIN ADP: 29 overall, WR 8 2 votes

Marc Levin - Green had the 4th best rookie wide receiver seasons in the last ten years (the 15th best rookie WR season ever). In such a great season, he finished as the fantasy WR14 in 2011. Owners drafting him as the WR8 are hoping for improvement rather than a sophomore slump. That is fine, but drafting based on hope can burn owners looking for value. In the last ten years, most wide receivers with at least 100 fantasy points in their rookie year scored fewer fantasy points in year two. There are, of course, exceptions. But we make value predictions based on the rule. Therefore, if Green is more likely to score fewer points than last year, then a higher fantasy draft position than his 2011 WR14 finish equates to an overvaluation. This s especially true when proven players like Mike Wallace and Brandon Marshall have later average draft positions.

Mark Wimer - A.J. Green has to face the Steelers (first in the NFL last year, averaging 171.9 net passing yards allowed per game), Browns' (second, 184.9), and Ravens' (fourth, 196.2) pass defense in six of the coming 16 games. He's working with a developing young quarterback, Andy Dalton, who enters his second season - there isn't a long track record of production here, folks. When I spend a pick on a top-10 wide receiver, I look for more than one solid season to justify the expense.

Brandon Lloyd - NE ADP: 66 overall, WR 27 2 votes

Steve Holloway - The Patriots three leading receivers last season caught 291 passes and all return. Lloyd is supposed to revitalize the Patriots' ability to pass deep, but just having Lloyd as the down-field threat may allow Wes Welker, Ron Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to have even more room to work the middle of the field. I believe that Lloyd will increase the effectiveness of the Patriots' passing game, but will have difficulty catching the 51 passes that Deion Branch caught a year ago, especially with Branch remaining involved.

Chris Smith - I believe Lloyd will have a positive season with the New England Patriots this year. He has become a very good receiver in the NFL and will likely be a starting receiver. However Wes Welker will get his 110+ receptions, the dual-headed monster at tight end will still be the focal point and I believe the Patriots will be more balanced in 2012, with perhaps 80 fewer passing attempts. There will likely be 100 or fewer targets for Lloyd if he fits into what the Patriots are doing and that is just not enough looks to justify a 6th round selection in my opinion. He will also be competing for touches with veterans Deion Branch and Jabar Gaffney who are capable when used.

Robert Meachem - SD ADP: 83 overall, WR 32 2 votes

Steve Holloway - Meachem disappointed in his four years with the Saints after being drafted in the first round in 2008. He never caught more than 45 passes and averaged only 4 targets per game in the NFL's most prolific passing offense. The Chargers seem to have several #2 wide receivers for this season and I suspect that Meachem will be the least likely one of those to provide consistent production.

Aaron Rudnicki - For such a highly drafted player, I always felt that Meachem was a disappointment in New Orleans. Despite playing in one of the league's most potent passing attacks, he hasn't topped 45 catches or 722 yards in a single season yet. The situation in San Diego may not be too dissimilar from the one he just left. There are enough other weapons around like Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd to limit his targets, and I think Meachem is likely being drafted a couple rounds ahead of where he should.

Sidney Rice - SEA ADP: 94 overall, WR 36 2 votes

Maurile Tremblay - Most people are expecting Rice to be the Seahawks' clear top receiver, but I see very little separation between Sidney Rice and Doug Baldwin. With Mike Williams, Ben Obomanu and Golden Tate also competing for looks, I don't view Sidney Rice as anything better than a fantasy WR4.

Jason Wood - Rice is as brittle as rice paper. He has talent, and Matt Flynn will be the best quarterback he's played with since Brett Favre. But I can't get past the 15 games played in the last two seasons.

Steve Smith - CAR ADP: 43 overall, WR 16 2 votes

Heath Cummings - Smith had a phenomenal year in 2011, and looked like he could do that forever. He can't. For one thing, I think Cam Newton regresses a little in 2012; defenses have had a full offseason to figure out how to slow him down and they will. Smith has had an amazing career, proving doubters wrong for much of it, but I view last season as his last gasp of greatness, not a trend you should bet on.

Bruce Hammond - Smith has an ADP of WR16, and while he had an outstanding 2011 season with nearly 1,400 yards receiving, I'm not expecting a similar performance in 2012. Maybe he continues to defy Father Time at age 33, but the odds get stronger that the fall off is coming. I don't want to be the guy investing a WR16 pick in him, not with Brandon LaFell beginning to emerge, David Gettis back from injury (out all of 2011), and Cam Newton more secure in his ability to see the whole field. Smith will no longer be the only show in town and his stats will suffer for it.

Miles Austin - DAL ADP: 45 overall, WR 18 1 vote

Heath Cummings - I feel like Austin has built a career off one pretty amazing season. In 2009 Austin put up 1,300 yards and 11 TDs, but he hass never come close to those numbers again. He's going to be the third option for Tony Romo behind Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, and I just don't see him producing as a WR1. I probably won't draft Austin this year, but if I do it'll be because he slipped into the late 6th or 7th round.

Anquan Boldin - BAL ADP: 93 overall, WR 35 1 vote

Bob Henry - In the last three years, Boldin's skills have slowly eroded to the point where he no longer has that explosiveness he has as a young receiver on the Cardinals, nor does he separate enough for Joe Flacco to throw the ball into tight spots with confidence when he has other emerging weapons to attack defenses. Boldin's production has seen him fall from WR23 to WR25 to WR37 in that span. With an ADP of WR35, I think his price is just too rich for me to bite. Again, for me it's about perceived value, and I think his draft stock is already hitting his fantasy ceiling and there is nothing but downside if you take him that early.

Dwayne Bowe - KC ADP: 49 overall, WR 20 1 vote

Maurile Tremblay - Will the Chiefs put their offense in the hands of Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe, or Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis? I believe the Chiefs will be among the most run-heavy teams in the league this season. Bowe will still have a few big games, but the second half of the 2011 season was not promising. After the week six bye, Bowe did not have a single 100-yard game, and scored only one touchdown in the final 11 games.

Antonio Brown - PIT ADP: 65 overall, WR 26 1 vote

Bruce Hammond - At an ADP of WR26 I think Antonio Brown is overvalued. I think the Steelers will pass less this year now that offensive coordinator Bruce Arians is gone and Ben Roesthlisberger has to learn Todd Haley's system, and there will be greater emphasis on old time "Steeler football" which means running the ball and playing defense. Tight end Heath Miller will be more involved, as will Emmanuel Sanders who was dinged up much of last year, Jerricho Cotchery has been added, and Mike Wallace will get his contract situation settled and remain the WR1. There simply will not be enough balls to go around for Brown to meet WR26 expectations in my opinion.

Marques Colston - NO ADP: 44 overall, WR 17 1 vote

Mark Wimer - Marques Colston is a fine player, but at 29 he's now got six seasons of NFL pounding recorded in his frame. He's only played a full 16 games twice in his career, and the last time he managed that trick was in 2009. He'll see a steady diet of targets and receptions from Drew Brees, but with the coaching staff upset by the suspension of Sean Payton I see a regression coming in New Orleans, which the aging Colston's numbers will reflect this year.

Larry Fitzgerald - ARI ADP: 12 overall, WR 2 1 vote

David Yudkin - Fitzgerald played much better with John Skelton at quarterback than he did with Kevin Kolb. Granted, the sample size is small, but he averaged 13.9 fantasy points (0 PPR) with Skelton compared to 9.7 fantasy points with Kolb. Considering his ADP is that of a first round fantasy pick and second receiver off the board, that should be enough of a risk to think he won't earn back his draft position.

Pierre Garcon - WAS ADP: 82 overall, WR 31 1 vote

Jeff Pasquino - Garcon signed on to be the number one wide receiver in Washington, but this just screams "Alvin Harper" all over again. Garcon is a second wide receiver who does not beat top coverage, yet he will face it nearly every week in the NFC East. Garcon will struggle as the top target for the Redskins and those expecting a big first year in Washington will be sorely disappointed.

Percy Harvin - MIN ADP: 42 overall, WR 15 1 vote

Jeff Pasquino - Harvin is the top wide receiver in Minnesota, but the Vikings really do not have much else besides him anyway. Harvin will face double coverages all year long until another wideout emerges in Minnesota. Harvin is a good receiver and can put up solid numbers, but with issues all over the Minnesota offense (Adrian Peterson injury, young quarterback, questionable WR2) it might be very difficult for him to be more than a fantasy WR3 in 2012.

Santonio Holmes - NYJ ADP: 91 overall, WR 34 1 vote

Steve Holloway - In Holmes' four years with the Steelers, he averaged 16.3 ypc and caught 58.6% of his targets. Those same stats for his two years with the Jets have dropped to 13.6 ypc and 53.2%. The combination of his Jets' production, when combined with his recent poor attitude and inability to get along with Mark Sanchez increases concern about his role on the team. Last year he finished ranked as the 33rd wide receiver even whole he caught a career high 8 TDs.

Andre Johnson - HOU ADP: 16 overall, WR 3 1 vote

Heath Cummings - For a 31-year-old receiver that has only finished in the top 8 of fantasy wide receivers twice in his career, a lot of people sure are banking on him doing it again. Johnson is still a physical specimen, no doubt, but the Texans have become a run first team with a dominant defense. He may show flashes of his former self but his time as a truly elite fantasy producer has passed.

Julio Jones - ATL ADP: 38 overall, WR 13 1 vote

Mark Wimer - Julio Jones made some impressive plays last year (102 targets for 54/959/8 receiving), but he's still second fiddle to a receiver (Roddy White) who has averaged 184 targets and 108 catches over the past two seasons. With a premier tight end like Tony Gonzalez also in this mix, I don't see a path for Jones to get much beyond 1,000 yards receiving again this season - I think he's overinflated at 13th wide receiver off the board.

Brandon Marshall - CHI ADP: 33 overall, WR 11 1 vote

Andy Hicks - Brandon Marshall once again is off to a new environment. His talent is obvious for all to see and he is one of the most imposing receivers in the game, but can you trust him to be happy and productive? A 3rd round pick is a high price for a Chicago receiver, despite Jay Cutler being under center. Given Marshall's off field incidents and his seemingly fragile psyche, I would let someone else take the shot unless he dropped just a little bit further in drafts.

Jordy Nelson - GB ADP: 32 overall, WR 10 1 vote

Ryan Hester - It feels a little odd having both starting wide receivers on one of the league's most prolific air attacks, but it's because of that air attack that Nelson and Greg Jennings are in such high demand. Word from Packers' camp is that Nelson will be used in the slot more to exploit certain matchups, which may help increase his receptions total (68 in 2011) and maintain his yardage (1,263). His 15 touchdowns, though, seem to be very unsustainable from a player who had just two in each of his first three seasons. Nelson is being drafted as the #12 fantasy WR, but I'd rather wait for either Dallas receiver (Dez Bryant has an ADP of 37 while Miles Austin's in 38) or Steve Smith (39). Marques Colston (PPR ADP 40): Colston's appearance here is strictly team-related. Drew Brees' contract situation is currently making him unhappy. Even if Brees makes it to all of training camp as interim head coach Joe Vitt has suggested, there's still the huge item of Sean Payton's season-long suspension to overcome. I have tempered expectations for the entire New Orleans offense. Instead of Colston, I'd look for Percy Harvin (43), Demaryius Thomas (47), or even Dwayne Bowe (50).

Laurent Robinson - JAX ADP: 118 overall, WR 44 1 vote

Mike Brown - Hey look, the Jaguars signed Alvin Harper. Ok not quite, but the story of the Dallas receiver who parlays a big statistical season into a big payday from a Florida team seems too similar to be just a coincidence. Robinson has long had the ability to be a player and finally enjoyed some success a year ago. But I'm of the strong belief that it was his position on the team and system he was in that was far more critical to his success than him suddenly finding his game. On a run-first Jacksonville team led by a wildly inconsistent quarterback and an explosive rookie receiver lining up across from him, Robinson won't have nearly the opportunity to put up big games as he did a year ago.

Mike Wallace - PIT ADP: 30 overall, WR 9 1 vote

Chris Smith - Mike Wallace is an interesting player heading into this season. I love his talent and his chemistry with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger but currently, Wallace is in a contract situation that is beginning to show signs of getting ugly. The Steelers have two strong, young talented receivers in Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Saunders already on the roster and will be due contract increases of their own soon. At this time I am hesitant to rank Wallace mid-third round due to this uncertainty.

Titus Young - DET ADP: 110 overall, WR 43 1 vote

Steve Holloway - Young had a respectable rookie season catching 48 passes for 607 yards and 6 TDs. He ranked #4 on the Lions in targets though with 96 behind Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew and Nate Burleson and the team added Ryan Broyles in the draft. He only ranked 46th a year ago and in addition to having competition from Broyles, he punched teammate Louis Delmas, starting free safety earlier this off-season and might have some challenges healing team relationships.

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