Undervalued WRsRead the introduction to this series if you haven't yet.
|Pierre Garcon - WAS ADP: 75 overall, WR 29||4 votes|
Mike Brown - The Redskins didn't draft Robert Griffin III just to sell jerseys. They're going to build the offense around his strengths, and they are going to throw the football. Considering the lack of big names in the wide receiver stable, it stands to reason that Garcon is going to benefit the most from that aerial attack. That's not the only reason for his expected increase in stats, as Garcon is quite a talented wideout in his own right. But yes, what gets me most excited about his prospects is the opportunity he's got. With only Santana Moss, Leonard Hankerson, and the tight ends and running backs to contend with for receptions, Garcon's targets should come early and often. He looks to be one of the early favorites for leading the league in passing targets, and the offseason has brought nothing but good news for a guy who can be had in the middle rounds.
Heath Cummings - While I'm not sold that Robert Griffin III is going to be the second coming of Cam Newton, he will definitely be an upgrade over anyone Garcon had throwing him the ball in 2011. That, coupled with the fact that the Redskins should score a lot more than last year's Colts, and I think Garcon improves on 2011 enough to become a borderline WR1.
Bob Magaw - If you are a believer in Robert Griffin III, than Garcon holds intriguing upside. Overshadowed by Reggie Wayne in Indianapolis, he will be given every opportunity to justify his big contract (five years, $42.5 million). While he has been plagued by erratic hands at times, he has also interspersed flashes of tantalizing ability. While Griffin III looks like a transcendent talent and the real deal, the Redskins are in one of the strongest divisions in the league, and could be playing from behind and forced out of necessity into pass first mode often in expected difficult division tilts against the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys.
|Percy Harvin - MIN ADP: 44 overall, WR 15||4 votes|
Ryan Hester - In the second half of last season (when Christian Ponder was entrenched as the team's starter), Harvin was one of the most successful fantasy wide receivers in the NFL. The amount of touches Harvin gets also come in more than just the passing game. The team does a nice job of utilizing him in the run game and putting him positions that every touch could result in a big play. And for all the media attention that his recurring migraine headaches get, he has only missed three games in a three-year career. Call me crazy, but I gravitate toward young and explosive players. Harvin fits that bill.
Andy Hicks - Rushing stats count for a wide receiver, which is why Percy Harvin ranked as the 7th highest WR last year. With a lack of options across the board in Minnesota and a young QB at the helm, Harvin could easily do a repeat or perhaps even better if his touchdown numbers continue to rise. Harvin isn't your prototypical WR1, he offers more.
Jason Wood - Harvin doesn't get the respect he deserves, but you can use that to your advantage. Last year he finished as the 7th best receiver, yet is going several rounds later. That makes no sense. Christian Ponder will be better in his second year, Harvin remains the team's #1 option, and he's motivated by a desire for a new contract after 2012. With Adrian Peterson likely needing some extra rest early in the season, you can bet on Harvin running quite a bit (remember he had 50 rushes last year), and I could see him breaking the 1,000-yard receiving mark while also putting up 300-400 rushing yards.
|Brandon Lloyd - NE ADP: 52 overall, WR 19||4 votes|
Mike Brown - After all these years, Lloyd is finally in the right spot. He showed last season that he's still got a flair for the dramatic and acrobatic, providing several highlight-reel type catches. Unfortunately, Lloyd's output was not there on a consistent basis, largely due to playing with a couple of quarterbacks who had a lot of trouble putting the ball where it was supposed to be. There will be no such issues in Foxboro, and Lloyd gives the Pats yet another dynamic playmaker but with a little more consistency than they've gotten from that spot recently. He'll provide a consistent deep threat, and while the tight ends and Wes Welker are attracting all of the defensive attention, Lloyd will finally be seeing passes from a Hall of Famer. This combination could be lethal.
Jeff Haseley - The hype surrounding Lloyd is real. He is joined with OC Josh McDaniels again and more fireworks are expected. Add Tom Brady and the Patriots explosive offense to that equation and you've got a potential Top 10 wide receiver in Lloyd this year.
Matt Waldman - The Patriots wide receiver is one of those players that I've been bullish about since he joined the team and that confidence in him has grown to the point where I'm predicting at least 15 touchdowns from him. Do I have a case of confirmation bias because Lloyd and Tom Brady are having an excellent camp together? Sure, it's possible if I'm wrong about Lloyd's performance because the fact that he has looked great in camp has confirmed my belief that he can be the top receiver in the New England offense. My belief that Lloyd could be highly productive player in an offense that he knows like the back of his hand due to his relationship with Josh McDaniel has never wavered. I think many people prefer to look at what happened with Chad Johnson rather than the possibility of Lloyd performing at a level closer to Randy Moss in 2006. I think some people believe that somehow Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, and Aaron Hernandez have too much to offer as players for Lloyd to thrive as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver. However, there is already past history that Wes Welker has less production in McDaniels' offense. I think Gronkowski and Hernandez's production could have been a product of talent meeting necessity. This team lacked a viable outside threat capable of getting deep or making plays in the red zone. Lloyd is among the best wide receivers in the league in these two areas, which means I think if you give Lloyd Deion Branch's 51 catches, 702 yards, and 5 touchdowns; Chad Johnson's 15 catches 276 yards, and 1 touchdown; and transfer five yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game from Welker's, Gronkowski's, and Hernandez's totals last year, Lloyd will have 1218 yards and 12 touchdowns. While I'm predicting 15-17 scores, the lower total I just projected puts him in the top-five last year. Considering that Johnson is no longer with the game and Branch is on the roster bubble, I think taking away a total of five yards per Welker, Gronkowski, and Hernandez per game is reasonable.
|Sidney Rice - SEA ADP: 123 overall, WR 45||3 votes|
Steve Holloway - Any value consideration for Sidney Rice must be driven by his talents and abilities being greater than his injury potential. Out of his five seasons in the NFL, he has only played 16 games once. In that season, he finished as WR8 catching 83 passes for 1,312 yards and 8 TDs. The past two years he has missed more time than he has played, but when you consider that potential value that he provides at his current ADP of WR45, I have to take the plunge. I particularly like drafting him as my fourth wide receiver, as his likely outcome will be as either a plug and play every week guy or one that is left at the end of your bench.
Chris Smith - Rice was a top-ten fantasy receiver in 2009 before suffering back-to-back injury plagued seasons. When healthy, he has good size, quickness and ability and with the potential upgrade at quarterback in Matt Flynn, Expect Rice to put up a decent season this year and certainly out perform his current draft position.
|Reggie Wayne - IND ADP: 77 overall, WR 30||3 votes|
Aaron Rudnicki - Wayne posted 75 receptions and nearly 1000 yards last year despite some of the worst QB play in the league. Based on what we saw from Cam Newton and Steve Smith last year, it seems way too premature to write off Wayne and this passing attack. He's not quite over the hill and should be the main focal point of the offense in Indianapolis. I expect a bounceback season and top-20 numbers from him.
Jason Wood - You would think Reggie Wayne was a 38-year old vet facing steep decline. He caught 75 yards for 960 yards and four touchdowns last year with a gaggle of horrible quarterbacks under center. He opted to re-sign this year and provide a steady influence on an otherwise young offensive unit. With Austin Collie suffering another concussion, and Pierre Garcon leaving for the Redskins, Wayne is all but guaranteed to be Andrew Luck's top target -- and Wayne should be among the top 10 in targets league wide.
|Titus Young - DET ADP: 101 overall, WR 37||3 votes|
Ryan Hester - In 2011, Detroit threw four more passes than the team that threw the second-most (New Orleans) and 54 more than the team that threw the third-most (New England). Calvin Johnson often can't be stopped even when he's double-teamed, and after last season's monster numbers, Johnson should command even more attention. Opposite Johnson, Nate Burleson had a sneaky-good -- albeit inconsistent -- seasons with 73 catches, 757 yards, and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, in limited action, Young hauled in six touchdowns. Last season, Burleson received 57% of the 194 targets that went to this pair. This season, with Young maturing and Burleson aging, I expect Young to get at least two-thirds of those targets this season. And he'll do a lot with them. It's clear whose arrow is pointing in the right direction.
Matt Waldman - Young has the open field skill that is almost as electric as DeSean Jackson, but with more power. The Lions wide receiver demonstrated some early rapport with Matthew Stafford during his rookie year and this offseason the former Boise State receiver has been dominant in practices. If Calvin Johnson does what 's considered normal for him, Titus Young will see a lot of open field to operate and that's going to make him a receiver capable of 900-1100 yards and 7-9 touchdowns. I think he's a far safer bet than Santonio Holmes, Greg Little, Darrius Heyward Bey, Malcom Floyd, Denarius Moore, Robert Meachem, and even Kenny Britt. That's seven players that are currently leaving the board before him.
|Justin Blackmon - JAX ADP: 98 overall, WR 35||2 votes|
Marc Levin - The WR43 in 2011 was Deion Branch, who scored 100 standard fantasy points and 151 in PPR leagues. Not since 2005 has there been no rookie WR who reached at least 100 standard fantasy points (Reggie Brown had 81.6 in 2005 as the leading rookie WR that year). In 8 of the past 10 years, multiple rookies eclipse that number. Since 2002, the top fantasy rookie WR has averaged 144 fantasy points every year, with that number trending upwards in recent years (4 of the top-10, 8 of the top-20, and 23 of the top-50 rookie WR performances of the last 10 years occurred in years 2009-2011). Owners can debate the situation Blackmon enters as much as they want, but based on the trends, he has a good probability to finish well above WR43 numbers.
|Antonio Brown - PIT ADP: 65 overall, WR 25||2 votes|
Ryan Hester - At the conclusion of the 2011 season, Brown -- not Mike Wallace -- was the apple of Ben Roethlisberger's eye. Brown's route-running for a second-year player was phenomenal. Brown is also in OTAs building rapport with Roethlisberger as they both learn Todd Haley's new offense while Wallace is at home unhappy about his contract situation. Brown's weakness last season was getting open in the red zone (which resulted in just two touchdowns). Entering his third year, he should progress in that area. He's also explosive enough on catch-and-run plays two score more than twice from outside the 20 alone. Expect the TDs to come back to the "mean" in an upward fashion for Brown. Most 1,100-yard WRs have more than two receiving scores.
|Marques Colston - NO ADP: 47 overall, WR 16||2 votes|
Steve Holloway - Colston averaged over 9 targets per game last year for the Saints, who allowed Robert Meachem to leave via free agency. Although Drew Brees is known to spread the ball around, Colston and Jimmy Graham will be his primary targets this season. With significant player losses on the defensive side and an entirely new defensive system, the offense will again be asked to carry the team. Colston has averaged 1,080 yards per season over the last three and increased his yardage last year, even while missing two games. He should be slightly more productive this year and finished as #10 wide receiver last year.
|A.J. Green - CIN ADP: 25 overall, WR 6||2 votes|
Jason Wood - Green was amazing last year, and there's no reason he can't take the next step forward. I believe what my eyes are telling me, and they say Green is right alongside Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson as the most physically gifted, complete receivers in the league. As long as Andy Dalton doesn't regress much, Green should take the final step into the elite tier at his position.
|Darrius Heyward-Bey - OAK ADP: 103 overall, WR 38||2 votes|
Aaron Rudnicki - The Raiders passing attack should be in better hands than it's been for awhile thanks to the presence of Carson Palmer and Heyward-Bey looks like the player most likely to benefit. After being written off as a bust too early by quite a few observers, he finished 2011 strong and is a clear breakout candidate for 2012. Denarius Moore was expected to emerge as the primary target but he has been sidelined by hamstring injuries and that should leave even more targets for Heyward-Bey when the season starts.
|Brandon Marshall - CHI ADP: 30 overall, WR 9||2 votes|
Jason Wood - Remember two things. One, offensive coordinator Mike Tice invented the "Randy Ratio." Two, Brandon Marshall exceeded 100 receptions in each of his two seasons with Jay Cutler. Marshall needs only stay healthy to be a PPR beast this year, and push for Top 5 value.
|Robert Meachem - SD ADP: 87 overall, WR 31||2 votes|
Mark Wimer - I like Meachem as a third fantasy wide receiver on your roster right now, with possible #1 fantasy wide receiver potential. The broken ankle Vincent Brown recently suffered solidifies Meachem as the clear-cut #1 in San Diego for the start of regular season - I think he'll justify that spot on the depth chart and produce solid fantasy numbers for his owners. He's got lots of value as the 32nd wide receiver off the board.
|Randy Moss - SF ADP: 121 overall, WR 44||2 votes|
Jeff Pasquino - Randy Moss is back - but is he better than ever? That's the question. I think that Moss will come to play this year as he is on a title contender in San Francisco. Did he have issues in the past? Absolutely - but until I see otherwise I will give one of the best wide receivers ever in the NFL the benefit of the doubt. I expect him to start for the 49ers and put up WR3 fantasy level stats in 2012.
|Torrey Smith - BAL ADP: 71 overall, WR 28||2 votes|
Mark Wimer - Torrey Smith had a fine rookie campaign, and in my opinion he is set to take over as the top receiver for Joe Flacco during the coming campaign. He's got plenty of room to improve his game, and he's already a dangerous deep threat - I expect a breakout year from Smith that should vault him into the top ten among wide receivers. Smith should do much better than his current #28 ADP indicates - don't be scared off by his minor ankle injury, he'd be playing if this were regular season.
|Nate Washington - TEN ADP: 108 overall, WR 40||2 votes|
Mark Wimer - Kenny Britt is ailing and has missed OTAs and likely will miss all of training camp (and then start season on suspension thanks to his DUI on Fort Campbell, KY, July 20), while youngster Kendall Wright is working to get up to speed at the NFL level. Washington played well whether Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker was throwing the football, and posted the first 1,000+ yards-receiving campaign of his career last season (121 targets for 74/1,023/7 receiving). Washington should maintain a high level of production in his current situation and should exceed his current ADP by a lot - he's a great value right now.
|Miles Austin - DAL ADP: 62 overall, WR 23||1 vote|
|Anquan Boldin - BAL ADP: 97 overall, WR 34||1 vote|
|Dwayne Bowe - KC ADP: 55 overall, WR 20||1 vote|
|Kenny Britt - TEN ADP: 95 overall, WR 32||1 vote|
|Michael Crabtree - SF ADP: 112 overall, WR 41||1 vote|
|Victor Cruz - NYG ADP: 32 overall, WR 10||1 vote|
|Eric Decker - DEN ADP: 68 overall, WR 27||1 vote|
|DeSean Jackson - PHI ADP: 64 overall, WR 24||1 vote|
|Vincent Jackson - TB ADP: 61 overall, WR 22||1 vote|
|Steve Johnson - BUF ADP: 67 overall, WR 26||1 vote|
|Greg Little - CLE ADP: 119 overall, WR 43||1 vote|
|Jeremy Maclin - PHI ADP: 60 overall, WR 21||1 vote|
|Lance Moore - NO ADP: 115 overall, WR 42||1 vote|
|Jordy Nelson - GB ADP: 34 overall, WR 12||1 vote|
|Hakeem Nicks - NYG ADP: 33 overall, WR 11||1 vote|
|Demaryius Thomas - DEN ADP: 51 overall, WR 18||1 vote|
|Mike Wallace - PIT ADP: 48 overall, WR 17||1 vote|
|Mike Williams - TB ADP: 138 overall, WR 47||1 vote|