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Undervalued WRs

Read the introduction to this series if you haven't yet.

Randy Moss - SF ADP: 128 overall, WR 48 5 votes

Mike Brown - Some people have whiskey. Others have gambling. I have Randy Moss. I don't care how long it's been, or how bad he looked, or how uninspired he appeared. As long as he is in uniform on a football field, I will always remember what he is capable of. We haven't heard stories about money troubles, so the only reason I can see why he'd return to play is hunger. And a hungry Randy Moss can still do damage if he wants to.

Andy Hicks - This should be relatively simple. Either Randy Moss returns to being a successful wide receiver or he flames out. Given his past excellence and his performances when with a new team, given an offseason, and Moss is capable of paying massive returns for his current draft price. Just be aware that the floor is no return at all.

Jeff Pasquino - Randy Moss is back - but is he better than ever? That's the question. I think that Moss will come to play this year as he is on a title contender in San Francisco. Did he have issues in the past? Absolutely - but until I see otherwise I will give one of the best wide receivers ever in the NFL the benefit of the doubt. I expect him to start for the 49ers and put up WR3 fantasy level stats in 2012.

Matt Waldman - Okay, I'll bite. We all know the risks with a player who, "plays when he wants to play." But as the 128th player off the board, this is a player you can afford to "pick because you want to pick." The 49ers staff says Moss has been like a player-coach in meetings and his teammates say that in practice he looks like the same great receiver they're used to watching when he was with the Vikings and Patriots. Alex Smith may never ascend to the level of Tom Brady, but if Kyle Orton can help Brandon Lloyd become a Pro Bowl receiver, it lessens my doubts that Smith will be a huge problem with Moss. Of course, there's no disputing that sometime during the season Moss could have some bad sushi at the 49ers training table, throw a fit like a pop star diva, and refuse to run a route at more than three-quarter speed for a four-game stretch. That's the risk with Moss. Yet, at this point in the draft I'd rather pick a player that I know has elite physical and conceptual skill for the game but history of attitude problems than a more limited talent without a real shot to do much than perform as a solid flex play.

Jason Wood - Most will scoff. Let them. Randy Moss has a ton to prove, is running and cutting like a man possessed, and has a clear path to a starting role for a contender. The 49ers will be in most games, which will keep Moss focused. Let's be clear, Moss could be a huge bust but at his current ADP, I can't imagine a higher upside option at the same point in the draft.

Demaryius Thomas - DEN ADP: 50 overall, WR 21 5 votes

Jeff Haseley - I honestly can see Demaryius Thomas being a Top 5 WR this year and the reason is mostly because of Peyton Manning. If Thomas can be a legit WR threat with Tim Tebow at QB, imagine what he can bring to the table with Peyton Manning. He could be the WR we are all talking about by week six. If only you knew before the season started. Well, this is your wake up call.

Bob Magaw - Thomas was a raw prospect coming out of the medieval Georgia Tech passing attack, and did little to quite dissenters in an injury filled rookie campaign. He unexpectedly burst onto the NFL scene in his second season after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon in the off-season, and despite having to work with the passing challenged Tim Tebow. Thomas has everything you could look for in a breakout WR prospect... size, strength, speed, quickness, hops, hands, athleticism and spectacular RAC ability (witness the overtime game winner in the playoffs against the Steelers). On the bonus plan, he has fortuitously become Peyton Manning's primary receiving weapon.

Chris Smith - One thing we know very well about Peyton Manning is he makes all the skilled players around him better. It appears Manning is throwing the ball well and even a 70% Manning is better than 80% of the quarterbacks in the NFL. I believe the player who will most benefit from a quarterback with legitimate passing skills is the youngster Thomas who is talented and athletic. He is training hard this off season and is ready to become a fantasy star with a real quarterback throwing him the ball.

Maurile Tremblay - Demaryius Thomas is going to love having Peyton Manning as his quarterback. In his final seven games last year (including the playoffs), Thomas averaged more than 100 yards per contest. He has terrific hands and big-play ability, and should be a borderline fantasy WR1 this season.

David Yudkin - Thomas came back from injury last year and became a force down the stretch for the Broncos. From Week 13 on, Thomas compiled 106 receiving yards per game (including the playoffs). Expanded over a 16-game schedule, that works out to a tidy 80-1703-8. That was with Tim Tebow under center, and now Thomas will benefit by having Peyton Manning throwing him the football.

Percy Harvin - MIN ADP: 42 overall, WR 15 4 votes

Heath Cummings - I'm assuming people are simply not factoring in Harvin's threat in the running game when projecting his 2012 stats. With Adrian Peterson's health questionable, Harvin is the Vikings offense, and he's done nothing but produce since Christian Ponder took over at quarterback. Ponder started 10 games in 2011 and Harvin averaged 13.7 fantasy ppg. Projected over a full season, that would have made him the #2 ranked wide receiver.

Bruce Hammond - Harvin's ADP of WR15 in PPR looks low to me. He's a dynamic player who was generating monster stats over the second half of 2011, even surpassing Calvin Johnson from Week 8 forward. (It's true! 195-192 in PPR.) It will take Adrian Peterson some time to return to form after his ACL injury late in 2011, and Harvin's rushing stats will continue to be a big plus. Also, the other projected starting wide receiver, Jerome Simpson, will miss the first three games to suspension. Harvin should be top-10, maybe top-5, this year.

Andy Hicks - Rushing stats count for a wide receiver, which is why Percy Harvin ranked as the 7th highest WR last year. With a lack of options across the board in Minnesota and a young QB at the helm, Harvin could easily do a repeat or perhaps even better if his touchdown numbers continue to rise. Harvin isn't your prototypical WR1, he offers more.

Aaron Rudnicki - If you look at the way Harvin finished the 2011 season, you see a player who can be a top-10 receiver this year. Once Adrian Peterson was injured, Harvin took over as the focal point on offense and he was regularly posting 20+ points each week. With Peterson's recovery from a bad knee injury still ongoing, Harvin should once again get an opportunity to carry this team. He is a unique weapon who can contribute via the running game, as a Wes Welker-type receiver, or even in the return game. The migraine issue has held him out of some games, but otherwise he has been pretty durable. I like him at this draft spot and quite a bit higher in PPR leagues.

Julio Jones - ATL ADP: 38 overall, WR 13 4 votes

Heath Cummings - I think this year is a perfect storm for Jones where defenses still focus on Roddy White as the #1 option, but it's Jones that actually becomes Matt Ryan's favorite target. Jones has game breaking speed and is a threat to score anywhere on the field, but he also showed last year that he can succeed on the shorter routes.

Steve Holloway - Julio Jones is an athletic wide receiver with excellent run after the catch skills. He scored 8 TDs a year ago, the same number as Roddy White on almost half the targets. With Gonzalez being 36 years old this season, Jones should garner some of his targets, especially in the red zone. The Falcons will have two of the most productive wide receivers this year and Jones should top White's yardage and TD production.

Chris Smith - Jones is a special receiver that is on the path to greatness. He had a wonderful rookie campaign, finishing as the 17th best fantasy receiver despite missing three games. He has exceptional size and speed and is protected within the offense thanks to having fellow superstar Roddy White and veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez to force defenses to play honest and not roll over to him. Add to that a quarterback in Matt Ryan who is entering his prime and I expect a top-five fantasy season for Jones in 2012.

Jason Wood - When the team's leading receiver comes out and says he's taking a back seat to the younger star, you listen. Roddy White has gone on record saying he expects to see less targets this year as the Falcons offense continues to evolve. Lip service or not, Jones delivered a rookie season that argues strongly in favor of a breakout second season. Jones is physically imposing, and you could see the light switch turn on as the 2011 season wore on. He could easily push for 1,200 yards and 8-10 TDs this year, and has the rare ability to either get over the top of opposing defensive backs or out leap them in a crowd.

Greg Little - CLE ADP: 121 overall, WR 46 4 votes

Mike Brown - I may have been a year early on Little. I had thought he would break out big-time a year ago and become the clear go-to guy for Cleveland in the passing game. Well, he wasn't terrible but he also wasn't start-worthy in many leagues. The offseason news on Little has been overwhelmingly positive, and he's the kind of player who has the potential to turn a good fantasy draft into a championship one by providing WR1 value for a WR3 price tag.

Bruce Hammond - Greg Little has an ADP of WR46. Look for Little to easily surpass his ADP and be a top-30 (perhaps top-20) receiver in 2012. Despite struggling with drops and the usual rookie growing pains, Little still managed 61 catches last year. You may recall that he sat out his entire Senior season of college and had little in the way of NFL pre-season due to the strike, so all things considered I think he did just fine as a rookie. Little has an Anquan Boldin-like skill set and should be targeted heavily as the team's clear WR1. I expect a real breakout from him in his second season, now with the threat of a running game in Trent Richardson to keeps defenses honest.

Dave Larkin - Greg Little had barely recovered from an ACL tear that robbed him of his senior year in college when he was thrown in at the deep end with Cleveland. With no proper offseason conditioning and an abbreviated training camp which was equivalent to learning a new language in a week, Little can be forgiven for struggling with drops at times. Despite all these obstacles, he posted 61 receptions and scored 2 touchdowns on a struggling Browns offense. Little can be a dynamic run-after-the-catch player like Brandon Marshall if his new quarterback can deliver him the football accurately and trust him. If Little can hone his game and eliminate mental errors, he can far outperform his ADP.

Jeff Tefertiller - Greg Little had to be the happiest guy in Cleveland when the Browns selected Brandon Weeden in April's NFL Draft. Weeden has a cannon of an arm. Little suffered through his rookie season with the noodle-armed Colt McCoy throwing passes. Now with Weeden under center, opposing defenses have to defend the entire field. Cleveland did not address the wide receiver position in free agency or in the first few rounds of the draft which showed the organization's faith in Little. He is not drafted until the eleventh round and can easily be startable in fantasy leagues most weeks as the Browns throw to stay in games.

Robert Meachem - SD ADP: 83 overall, WR 32 4 votes

Mike Brown - With Vincent Jackson now in Tampa, the Chargers needed to make a move to add a number one receiver. In the past, they have gotten by relying a little more heavily on TE Antonio Gates or miscasting Malcom Floyd as the top threat. Enter Meachem, who has shown numerous flashes of big-time ability in his career but just hasn't been able to put it all together for whatever reason. In San Diego, he'll be given every opportunity to beat out Vincent Brown and the aforementioned Floyd for the top spot, and if he lands it, he'd almost have to TRY to not live up to his ADP. The number one receiver for San Diego is typically an extremely valuable player.

Will Grant - This is as much of a 'someone has to catch the ball' pick as anything else. Phillip Rivers is going to have another 4000 + yard passing season, and Meachem is currently the #1 receiver on the team. He's got solid potential to outperform a 7th round pick.

Ryan Hester - There aren't many who would say that Meachem is an upgrade over the departed Vincent Jackson. But in this system, it's not nearly the drop-off that one might think. Meachem's strengths are getting down the field on vertical routes. The combination of Norv Turner's offense and Philip Rivers' ability to press the ball down the field makes this a nice fit. Like Jackson, Meachem is also heralded as an above-average blocker -- further decreasing the drop-off from old to new.

Marc Levin - While it is true that Meachem did not finish either 2010 or 2011 as a fantasy relevant WR, he enters 2012 in a much different situation. Instead of being the third or fourth -- at best -- option for Drew Brees in New Orleans, he is the presumptive #1 WR threat for Philip Rivers in San Diego. Instead of seeing 55 targets (his career target average), he will likely see 100-125. That alone should propel him into a better finish than WR32 in PPR leagues.

Torrey Smith - BAL ADP: 78 overall, WR 29 4 votes

Will Grant - Torrey Smith had a solid rookie campaign. He'll come into his sophomore year looking to improve on his 50 reception, 840 yard, 7 TD performance from last year. He ultimately beat Anquan Boldin in total fantasy points for the season and I think he has room to improve. He's going to be a solid WR2 this season, and he's excellent value at 78 overall.

Ryan Hester - Between my player comments, rankings, and this space, I feel that I've written so much about Smith that I'm doomed to jinx him. But I simply can't get past the flashes of brilliance he showed last year, the fact that his arrow is pointing up as a young receiver entering his second year, the aging receiver across from him who is on the decline but can still occupy defenses on short-to-intermediate routes, and that his most elite skill aligns perfectly with that of his quarterback. Joe Flacco can drop it in the proverbial bucket deep down the field, and Smith can get himself deep down the field. The sky is the limit for Smith this season.

Jeff Pasquino - The Ravens may have finally found their deep threat in Torrey Smith, who came on strong down the stretch to finish in the Top 25 wide receivers last year. Smith will start opposite of Anquan Boldin, a veteran who is much better on shorter routes and working as a possession receiver. Smith has great prospects for this year and years to come with the big arm of Joe Flacco in Baltimore. Look for lots of targets, especially long throws, for Smith and a strong second season.

Mark Wimer - Torrey Smith had a fine rookie campaign, and in my opinion he is set to take over as the top receiver for Joe Flacco during the coming campaign. He's got plenty of room to improve his game, and he's already a dangerous deep threat - I expect a breakout year from Smith that should vault him into the top ten among wide receivers. Smith should do much better than his current #29 ADP indicates.

Mike Williams - TB ADP: 109 overall, WR 42 4 votes

Jeff Haseley - Williams is definitely capable of getting in the end zone. He had 11 TDs in his rookie year, but dropped down to 3 TDs in year two, mostly because defenses paid him much closer attention. With Vincent Jackson now with Tampa Bay, Williams will move to the WR2 and will face a lot of single coverage, which will definitely help him be more productive. He will learn a lot from Jackson and feed off his intensity. I can completely see a rebound year from him as a result.

Bob Magaw - Like fellow soph Josh Freeman, Williams fell victim to the same general funk that tarnished a sensational rookie campaign. Will his career unfold like Michael Clayton 2.0 (after a phenomenal rookie season, the once promising former Buc inexplicably but inexorably spiraled down into mediocrity and obscurity, never to recapture his initial spark)? Parallel to hope for Freeman, a better supporting cast and surrounding talent could be a rising tide that lifts all boats in Tampa Bay. Williams won't see double teams opposite Vincent Jackson, and could benefit from a more competent ground game. His 11 receiving TDs in 2010 weren't just a Bucs rookie mark, but a franchise record.

Chris Smith - Williams came out of the gates flying as a rookie in 2010, finishing as the 11th best fantasy receiver. However last season himself and the entire Buccaneers offense came out flat and nothing came together for them. He dropped way down the charts and with the addition of veteran Vincent Jackson; many believe he will continue to put up mediocre stats. I believe the addition of Jackson is going to help Williams this year. Defenses will now likely roll over to contain Jackson and Williams is a beast to contain in single coverage with his size. I expect him to post serviceable stats in 2012 and finish in the 20-25 range at the position.

Mark Wimer - Josh Freeman got a fine receiving threat when Vincent Jackson rolled into town, but Jackson won't help just Freeman look good this year. Mike Williams should benefit from less attention and looser coverage during 2012, which means he'll be a solid third wide receiver for his fantasy owners - Williams should outperform his #42 ADP by a wide margin.

Michael Crabtree - SF ADP: 104 overall, WR 40 3 votes

Jeff Haseley - The presence of Randy Moss could result in Michael Crabtree having a breakout year. I envision the 49ers offense taking a big step forward this year, particularly their passing game. Crabtree has the talent and skills to be a great WR in the league, but the 49ers have been more of a rushing offense in his tenure with the team. If Moss is a threat, like I think he will be, Crabtree and Vernon Davis will be big winners.

Steve Holloway - A season ago, Crabtree was the leading receiver for the 49ers with 73 catches, 880 yards and 4 TDs. No other wide receiver had more than 20 catches. The additions of Mario Manningham and Randy Moss should open up space for Crabtree to play the possession receiver role. Although his targets will not increase, he should have a similar number of receptions and possibly additional red zone targets as the 49er offense improves overall. Crabtree finished as #28 wide receiver a year ago.

Bob Magaw - Crabtree hasn't fulfilled his formidable potential as a former top ten overall selection. Between an ill-advised rookie holdout, multiple foot injuries (since healed) and last years labor issues, this will be the first time in his career that he will get to work on timing and rapport with incumbent QB Alex Smith over a full off-season and training camp. The 49ers added more talented supporting cast receivers to Crabtree and freakishly athletic TE Vernon Davis, in former Giant WR Mario Manningham and first round rookie WR A.J. Jenkins (if free agent Randy Moss has anything left it would be gravy). He lacks breakaway speed, but has the short area quickness, strong hands and basketball player's knack for positioning (recruited by Bobby Knight) to be an elite possession WR.

Eric Decker - DEN ADP: 74 overall, WR 28 3 votes

Jeff Haseley - Not only am I a big fan of Demaryius Thomas this year, but Eric Decker could also be in store for a big year of his own. He is developing a great rapport both on the field and off it with Peyton Manning. We have seen in the past with the Colts that Manning can produce two legit fantasy WRs. Decker could be a Top 20 WR that can provide consistent numbers week in and week out.

Aaron Rudnicki - The Broncos passing game is going to get a huge upgrade this year given the change at quarterback and in the overall offensive system. As long as Peyton can stay upright and perform like he has always done in the past, the starting receivers should both make good targets. As the better route-runner, Decker should quickly become a favorite target for Manning. He started to break out in 2011 with a pocket passer like Kyle Orton under center, and should do even better in 2012.

Matt Waldman - Decker was the No. 7 fantasy receiver after five weeks of the 2011 season. Then Kyle Orton was replaced with Tim Tebow, the passing game went back into the 1940s, and Decker's talents rotted on the vine. Now that Peyton Manning is the Broncos quarterback, there's great promise for Decker to have a career-year in Denver. Among the receivers on the Broncos depth chart, Decker runs the best routes and has the best hands. He's skilled at adjusting to the football and making plays where he'll have to deal with contact to maintain possession of the ball while in the act of making the catch. In contrast to Tebow, who did his best work in the passing game with plays where he had a receiver earning strong separation, Manning is a precision passer and thrives on well-time, pinpoint throws in tighter coverage. Decker has shown thus far that he's better at this aspect of the passing game than Demaryius Thomas, who thrived more as an athlete than a technician. While I expect Thomas to have a good fantasy season with Manning at the helm, it has already been noted repeatedly this spring and summer that Decker and Manning have a strong rapport and it's Decker that Manning has praised. I expect a Top-15 fantasy receiver year for Decker.

Brandon Lloyd - NE ADP: 66 overall, WR 27 3 votes

Mike Brown - What Randy Moss and Chad Ochocinco were unable to do, Brandon Lloyd looks poised to accomplish. I know what you're thinking...if a Hall of Famer and All Pro were unable to provide the consistent deep threat for Tom Brady over the last few years, why in the heck would Brandon Lloyd? And the reason is, Lloyd isn't coming with baggage. He's in the right spot for a player of his abilities, and he showed last season that he's still got a flair for the dramatic and acrobatic. He provided several highlight-reel type catches, but he unfortunately played with a couple of quarterbacks who had a lot of trouble putting the ball where it was supposed to be. There will be no such issues in Foxboro, and Lloyd gives the Pats yet another dynamic playmaker but with a little more consistency than they've gotten from that spot recently.

Dave Larkin - Brandon Lloyd's courtship with New England was always going to result in a contract. Lloyd is a well-rounded receiver whose talents have been largely forgotten in St. Louis and Denver before that. With Tom Brady directing the show, Lloyd could have his most productive season yet. The argument against Lloyd having a WR2 or higher quality season is the distribution of targets in New England; surely Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker will gobble up the majority of the targets? It is a fair argument, though perhaps one that is almost too easy. If Brady sees a defense in Cover-1 or Cover-3, he will give Lloyd a signal and within five seconds, the Patriots will have a 25-yard gain. In short, Brady will make use of the weapons at his disposal; Brandon Lloyd will be a prominent one.

Matt Waldman - I almost get angry when I see Brandon Lloyd as the 66th player going off draft boards according to current ADP. Two years ago Lloyd was a No.1 fantasy starter at the receiver position with Kyle Orton throwing him the football. Kyle Orton! Doesn't anyone remember that? I guess not, but with apologies to Larry Fitzgerald, I'm here to remind you that Lloyd has the best combination of hands and skill at adjusting to the football in the game and he's now catching passes from Tom Brady, one of the better deep ball throwers in the game in a Josh McDaniels offensive system where he was a star. Apparently what's not to like is finding opportunities to become a full-blown fantasy stud when Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez are also in the starting lineup. Brady had over 5200 yards passing in 2011 and 3800 of those came from this trio. Let's remember that Chad Ochocinco barely saw the field, much less meaningful targets and Deion Branch was only modestly effective, at best. As a deep threat, Matt Slater was about as scary to defenders as a hand puppet. While I don't expect Lloyd to earn the 1400 yards of the remaining 5200 that Brady could conceivably earn again in 2012, I don't expect the trio of Welker, Gronkowski, and Hernandez to reach their 2011 totals, either. What I do expect is for Lloyd to reach 1000-1100 yards and earn double-digit touchdowns with spectacular plays in the vertical passing game and the red zone. If there's a player that can play the Randy Moss role with Brady from 2007 it's Lloyd. He's one of the best values in this draft.

Antonio Brown - PIT ADP: 65 overall, WR 26 2 votes

Ryan Hester - At the conclusion of the 2011 season, Brown -- not Mike Wallace -- was the apple of Ben Roethlisberger's eye. Brown's route-running for a second-year player was phenomenal. Brown is also in OTAs building rapport with Roethlisberger as they both learn Todd Haley's new offense while Wallace is at home unhappy about his contract situation. Brown's weakness last season was getting open in the red zone (which resulted in just two touchdowns). Entering his third year, he should progress in that area. He's also explosive enough on catch-and-run plays two score more than twice from outside the 20 alone. Expect the TDs to come back to the "mean" in an upward fashion for Brown. Most 1,100-yard WRs have more than two receiving scores.

David Yudkin - Brown ranked as the 24th best wide receiver in 2011 and now is getting drafted 26th at his position. As defenses migrated coverage more toward Mike Wallace, Brown saw his targets and productivity go up. With Rashard Mendenhall's health still a concern and perhaps a less effective running game, Brown should see his numbers improve, especially with Hines Ward retiring and his 65 targets now up for grabs.

Vincent Brown - SD ADP: 147 overall, WR 51 2 votes

Andy Hicks - Malcom Floyd is injury prone, Robert Meachem has never really been a big factor with the Saints and Antonio Gates has seen better days. Vincent Brown will be in his 2nd year and is developing very well. With his current draft price and the likelihood of one of the other guys coming up short, Brown offers great potential for a small price.

Matt Waldman - The Chargers parted ways with Vincent Jackson and added former Saint Robert Meachem in the offseason. Meachem played with one of the three best quarterbacks in the NFL and could not elevate his game to full-time starter status. I'm not sure how Norv Turner's system and Philip Rivers is going to make it different, but that's another story. What I do know is that Vincent Brown has excellent hands, skill at adjusting to the football in the air, and good route skills. He may not have elite speed, but he has enough skill to do quality work in the vertical game. However, what he'll do best is run intermediate routes and develop into a first-tier possession receiver with big-play upside. That's the kind of player that Rivers hasn't had since an aging Keenan McCardell was on the squad during Rivers' first year as a starter. I'm not as sold on Brown as my other value plays at the position, but that's only because the other players have demonstrated in the NFL what they're capable of and the offensive systems are more conducive for extended opportunities. Brown might have to gradually earn his place as a fantasy starter in 2012, but based on his production in OTAs and the dearth of reliable skill on the Chargers depth chart beyond Malcolm Floyd, I'll take my chances.

Austin Collie - IND ADP: 173 overall, WR 59 2 votes

Matt Waldman - Collie, like most of the Colts passing game, struggled in 2011 with Curtis Painter and Kerry Collins at the helm of a simple offense that required the defensive diagnostic skills, savvy, and precision of Peyton Manning to elevate it to a points machine. Andrew Luck is just that sort of quarterback take Indianapolis' passing game off life support and even as a rookie, I believe we'll see strong signs of good health in 2012. Speaking of health, Collie did not suffer a concussion last year, so concerns about his future should lesson somewhat. In terms of skill, Collie is among the best receivers in the league with his initial burst off the line and he has some of the best hands in the NFL. Paired with a quarterback like Andrew Luck, who is deadly accurate and precise, Collie should have an opportunity to reach 800-1100 yards and approach double-digit touchdowns because of his skill after the catch. He's the 173rd player off the board according to current ADP. I think its safe to expect to take that "1" off the "173" and that's the value he could have with just a solid season.

David Yudkin - I realize it is hard to ignore last year's debacle in Indianapolis and Collie's mercurial health. But in his last 16 games playing with Peyton Manning, Collie produced 88-1065-12. That type of production is hard to ignore. Who knows how well Andrew Luck will do, but it's safe to think that it will be better than whomever the Colts rolled out on to the field in 2011.

Marques Colston - NO ADP: 44 overall, WR 17 2 votes

Andy Hicks - There is a lot to be concerned about with the New Orleans Saints this year, but while Drew Brees is under center, Marques Colston will be a very productive player. One of the most consistent receivers over the last 6 years he can be relied upon to fall into that bottom WR1, top WR2 area of receivers. The departure of Robert Meachem just opens up the opportunity for more targets and Colston should once again be a solid option after the elite guys are gone.

Steve Holloway - Colston averaged over 9 targets per game last year for the Saints, who allowed Robert Meachem to leave via free agency. Although Drew Brees is known to spread the ball around, Colston and Jimmy Graham will be his leading receivers this season and with the several losses on the defensive side, the offense will again be asked to carry the team. Colston has averaged 1,080 yards per season over the last three and increased his yardage last year, even while missing two games. He should be slightly more productive this year and finished as #10 wide receiver last year.

Pierre Garcon - WAS ADP: 82 overall, WR 31 2 votes

Heath Cummings - While I'm not sold that Robert Griffin III is going to be the second coming of Cam Newton, he will definitely be an upgrade over anyone Garcon had throwing him the ball in 2011. That, coupled with the fact that the Redskins should score a lot more than last year's Colts, and I think Garcon improves on 2011 enough to become a borderline WR1.

Bob Magaw - If you are a believer in Robert Griffin III, than Garcon holds intriguing upside. Overshadowed by Reggie Wayne in Indianapolis, he will be given every opportunity to justify his big contract (five years, $42.5 million). While he has been plagued by erratic hands at times, he has also interspersed flashes of tantalizing ability. While Griffin III looks like a transcendent talent and the real deal, the Redskins are in one of the strongest divisions in the league, and could be playing from behind and forced out of necessity into pass first mode often in expected difficult division tilts against the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys.

Alshon Jeffery - CHI ADP: 170 overall, WR 57 2 votes

Jeff Haseley - The Bears will do their best to get the ball to Brandon Marshall in 2012, however defenses understand that as well. Chicago isn't exactly loaded at Wide Receiver, which opens the door for Alshon Jeffery to be a big contributor on offense from day one. I don't believe the Devin Hester hype, and even if he does see increased snaps, they will mostly be out of the slot. Jeffery will, in all likelihood, occupy the split end opposite Marshall and will see plenty of single coverage, which he has shown he can exploit. Jay Cutler has had success with another rookie WR opposite Marshall before - Eddie Royal, who caught 90 balls. Jeffery could have a big rookie year. I'm buying, especially at 170th overall.

Steve Holloway - Jeffery is a very talented rookie wide receiver for the Bears and gets the opportunity to play opposite Brandon Marshall. His low ADP is based on the perception that he can be lazy. He has a great opportunity as possibly the second option for Jay Cutler. Recent wide receiver performances by fellow Southeastern Conference rookies Julio Jones and A.J. Green bolster my confidence in Jeffery's chances to be productive immediately with the Bears.

Steve Johnson - BUF ADP: 58 overall, WR 24 2 votes

Jeff Tefertiller - Steve Johnson finished as WR16 last season but is not drafted this year until the end of the fifth round. The situation in Buffalo should only improve off last year, setting Johnson up for improvement. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will only get better with a full offseason working with coach Chan Gailey. Johnson is the Bills' only receiving threat and will see 125+ pass targets again in 2012. To illustrate Johnson's sleeper value, he has two consecutive seasons with at least 75 receptions, 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns ... yet is not drafted commensurate to his numbers.

Mark Wimer - Steve Johnson plays for an offense on the rise (Buffalo) with an improving, young quarterback who loves to throw him the football. I'd be shocked to see him below the top 15 at his position by year's end.

Brandon Marshall - CHI ADP: 33 overall, WR 11 2 votes

Jeff Tefertiller - Brandon Marshall finished as WR11 last year even with Chad Henne and Matt Moore throwing him the ball. The trade to Chicago will do wonders for the mercurial Marshall. He is now re-united with quarterback Jay Cutler. Let's remember Marshall caught at least 100 passes per season when the two played together in Denver. With an ADP of 33, the talented wide receiver is a steal late in the third round. He will see 150, or more, pass targets once again this year.

Jason Wood - Remember two things. One, offensive coordinator Mike Tice invented the "Randy Ratio." Two, Brandon Marshall exceeded 100 receptions in each of his two seasons with Jay Cutler. Marshall needs only stay healthy to be a PPR beast this year, and push for Top 5 value.

Nate Washington - TEN ADP: 130 overall, WR 49 2 votes

Mark Wimer - Kenny Britt is ailing and is missing organized team activities (again), while youngster Kendall Wright is working to get up to speed at the NFL level. Washington played well whether Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker was throwing the football, and posted the first 1,000+ yards-receiving campaign of his career last season (121 targets for 74/1,023/7 receiving). Washington should maintain a high level of production in his current situation and should exceed his current ADP by a lot - he's a great value right now.

David Yudkin - Washington is getting drafted as the 49th wide receiver off the board, yet his rankings the past three seasons have been 43, 41, and 16. He ranked as the 12th best receiver in the second half of the season last year. Kenny Britt's status is still up in the air, and the other receiving options are still young and inexperienced. Washington looks like a great bet to out produce his draft spot.

Reggie Wayne - IND ADP: 81 overall, WR 30 2 votes

Steve Holloway - Prior to last season, Wayne had finished among the top ten wide receivers in four of the previous five years. Last year, with very poor quarterback play, Wayne still led the team in receptions with 75 and yards with 960. This year he will be catching passes from Andrew Luck and without Pierre Garcon around. Wayne will again lead the team in receptions and should easily rebound to over 1,000 yards receiving.

Maurile Tremblay - I expect Wayne to bounce back with improved quarterback play this season. He has been a top ten fantasy WR in five out of seven seasons leading up to his disappointing No. 29 finish last season. Wayne still runs excellent routes and has reliable hands, and the rookie QB Andrew Luck will probably lock onto his number one target this season. A return to the top ten is not likely, but Wayne could easily return to fantasy WR2 territory, which represents solid value compared to his average draft position.

Miles Austin - DAL ADP: 45 overall, WR 18 1 vote

Bob Magaw - Austin's lackluster, injury-marred 2012 season mirrored, and was partly responsible for a disappointing year for the Cowboys in which they failed to make the playoffs. Like the sales profession, the NFL is an eminently "what have you done for me lately" business, and fantasy football's collective memory is notoriously short. It is easy to forget that, when at his best, Austin is one of the most complete WRs in the league, can beat opposing secondaries in a variety of ways, and is extremely dangerous in the open field once he has the ball in his hands. QB Tony Romo is still in his prime, and capable of threading the needle through the franchise's self-described closing window of opportunity.

Justin Blackmon - JAX ADP: 97 overall, WR 37 1 vote

Marc Levin - The WR37 in 2011 scored 107 fantasy points (a bit more in PPR leagues). Not since 2005 has a rookie WR failed to reach at least 107 fantasy points (Reggie Brown had 81.6), and, in most of the past ten years, multiple rookies eclipse that number. Since 2002, the top rookie WR has averaged 144 fantasy points, with that number trending upwards in more recent years (4 of the top-10, 8 of the top-20, and 23 of the top-50 rookie WR performances of the last 10 years occurred in years 2009-2011). Owners can debate the situation Blackmon enters as much as they want, but Blackmon is likely to finish as a worthwhile fantasy start this year, which means he is a value pick at WR37.

Kenny Britt - TEN ADP: 55 overall, WR 22 1 vote

Steve Holloway - In the Titans first two games last season, Britt had 14 catches for 271 yards and 3 TDs, averaging 19.3 ypc. In 2010, he scored 9 TDs on only 42 receptions. His athleticism is near the top at his position and his low current ADP of WR 22 is based both on his recent arthroscopic knee surgery and skepticism because of off-field concerns. He offers exceptional "up-side" at reasonable cost.

Dez Bryant - DAL ADP: 41 overall, WR 14 1 vote

Ryan Hester - While his conditioning has come into question and his position as the team's best returner puts him at extra risk for injuries, Bryant is a player whose physical gifts alone allow him to take over games. The conditioning can be worked on throughout training camp, and the injuries are difficult to predict. I like having as many physical freaks as possible on my fantasy squad, and Bryant fits that bill.

Victor Cruz - NYG ADP: 36 overall, WR 12 1 vote

Mark Wimer - The recent injury to Hakeem Nicks opens the door for Cruz to become Eli Manning's favorite target. Cruz is already an explosive, exciting player - if he can convert more of his targets into receptions during 2012, he could easily challenge for a top-three finish at his position this year.

Malcom Floyd - SD ADP: 102 overall, WR 39 1 vote

Aaron Rudnicki - The loss of Vincent Jackson in free agency leaves a huge hole in the Chargers offense, and Floyd has already proven that he can produce when given an opportunity. Although he has issues staying healthy, Floyd has generally been productive when he's on the field so you can start him with confidence. He finished 2011 very strong with 4 touchdowns in his last 5 games and figures to be one of the primary targets for Philip Rivers this year.

A.J. Green - CIN ADP: 29 overall, WR 8 1 vote

Heath Cummings - A.J. Green is my second favorite receiver in dynasty formats behind Calvin Johnson. He struggled a little early in the year with concentration, but he is one of the few receivers you can just throw it up to, when everyone knows you're going to, and he still comes down with the ball. Defensive backs do not have a chance against him in jump ball situations. I'd be thrilled to land Green in the second round as my WR1.

Darrius Heyward-Bey - OAK ADP: 107 overall, WR 41 1 vote

Chris Smith - Heyward-Bey was a monster 'bust' his first two NFL with only 35 total receptions and 2 total touchdowns. Last year however with veteran Carson Palmer at the helm, Heyward-Bey began to find himself. He has all the attributes of a good NFL receiver and while never likely to live up to his 7th overall draft pick status, he has good chemistry with Palmer and certainly will be better than a late 8th round pick. He will have his first 1000-yard receiving season in 2012 and while most are looking at 2nd-year player Denarius Moore to be the breakout player, I believe they have the wrong receiver. Heyward-Bey caught 64 of 113 attempts while Moore caught just 33 passes in 76 attempts.

Stephen Hill - NYJ ADP: 182 overall, WR 65 1 vote

Jeff Pasquino - One of the toughest wide receivers to gauge before the draft, now it is even tougher with Hill landing with the Jets. The Jets have already earmarked him for a starting job opposite of Santonio Holmes, and I think that they could use him at least as much if not more than Holmes in order to determine if he will be their top wide receiver as soon as next season. Hill has deep ball hands and speed and will get several long touchdowns this year.

Santonio Holmes - NYJ ADP: 91 overall, WR 34 1 vote

Aaron Rudnicki - I may be one of the only people to vote for him this year, but I think Holmes is too talented to go through another horrible season. Despite his limited yardage numbers while playing in a run-first offense, he has managed to put up some respectable touchdown totals with 14 in 28 games as a Jet. I think Mark Sanchez will respond well to the push from Tim Tebow and this passing game will surprise people. Given the price it takes to draft him, he should have little trouble outperforming his current ADP.

DeSean Jackson - PHI ADP: 61 overall, WR 25 1 vote

Jason Wood - Jackson would love to forget the 2011 season ever happened. And so would his fantasy owners. But the good news is Jackson is happy, under contract, and by all accounts focused. Don't be myopic and forget what Jackson did in 2009 and 2010. He won't catch 90+ receptions, but he's one of the few players that can finish as a top 12 fantasy receiver even if he only catches 60 balls. Jeremy Maclin is the more complete receiver, but Jackson will do enough to comfortably finish as a top 20 receiver, with upside well beyond that.

Greg Jennings - GB ADP: 23 overall, WR 5 1 vote

Maurile Tremblay - People are underestimating how good Jennings' 2011 season was, and overestimating the extent to which Jordy Nelson will steal targets from him in 2012. Jennings missed the last three-and-a-half games last year, but after his last full game in week 13, he was the No. 5 fantasy WR in the league (following his No. 4 finish the previous year). He also led Nelson in targets at that point, 95 to 62. Jennings is a solid fantasy WR1.

Jeremy Maclin - PHI ADP: 57 overall, WR 23 1 vote

Jeff Pasquino - The Eagles have a high-powered passing game, and Jeremy Maclin is often overshadowed by the mercurial DeSean Jackson. Maclin is the steady performer, racking up more catches and yards on a consistent basis for Philadelphia. Jackson is the home run hitter who doesn't always connect every week, making Maclin the safer fantasy WR2. Maclin started slowly last year due to health issues but came on strong, and most reports have him ready and excelling already before training camp. He represents big upside as the most likely top target in a high powered Philadelphia offense this year.

Lance Moore - NO ADP: 101 overall, WR 38 1 vote

Jeff Pasquino - With Robert Meachem gone to San Diego, Lance Moore has a great chance to step up and get even more of a workload in New Orleans. After Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham, Moore could be the third highest targeted Saint, which is no small matter when it comes to Drew Brees and the New Orleans passing attack. The Saints love to throw the ball and Brees is the most accurate and prolific passer in the NFL -- and possibly of all time. Moore has huge upside and comes very cheaply later in fantasy drafts this year.

Jordy Nelson - GB ADP: 32 overall, WR 10 1 vote

Heath Cummings - Nelson finished second amongst all receivers in fantasy points last season and he's right in the middle of the prime of his career. He surpassed Greg Jennings last season, and while their ADP suggests that will revert back in 2012, I don't agree. What his ADP does tell me is you could take him just about any time in the third round, but he won't be there if you're in my league.

Brian Quick - STL ADP: 152 overall, WR 52 1 vote

Bruce Hammond - It's always risky looking for good production from a rookie wide receiver, but with an ADP of 152 (WR52) I think Quick could far exceed those expectations. He may be one of the best kept secrets of the 2012 draft, but won't be for long. The Rams fully expect him to be their WR1 from the get go and there will be a lot of Brandon Marshall comparisons made (the productive Brandon, not the wacky Brandon). This is the big possession receiver Sam Bradford has needed, and I expect him to be targeted early and often.

Sidney Rice - SEA ADP: 94 overall, WR 36 1 vote

Chris Smith - Rice was a top-ten fantasy receiver in 2009 before suffering back-to-back injury plagued seasons. When healthy, he has good size, quickness and ability and with the potential upgrade at quarterback in Matt Flynn, Expect Rice to put up a decent season this year and certainly out perform his current draft position.

Jerome Simpson - MIN ADP: 198 overall, WR 68 1 vote

David Yudkin - Maybe it's the flip Simpson made at the end of the year into the end zone, but he should be in line to score better than the 68th best receiver this year. Yes, he's suspended to begin the season, but he should still be lining up as an NFL starter for 13 games this year. By comparison, last year's 68th ranked receiver posted 32-484-2. He produced more than half of that in the final two games of 2010.

Steve Smith - CAR ADP: 43 overall, WR 16 1 vote

Jason Wood - Steve Smith remains, far and away, the best receiver on the Panthers roster. Cam Newton threw for 4,000 yards AS A ROOKIE. Newton's growth curve is off the charts, and his rapport with Smith is evident. I don't see why Smith would struggle to deliver high end fantasy WR1 value this year, and be one of the more consistent performers given how often he'll be targeted.

Mike Wallace - PIT ADP: 30 overall, WR 9 1 vote

Marc Levin - Wallace came off a top-5 finish in 2010 to put up a top-10 finish in a down year for his quarterback, who was playing on one foot for several games. A healthy Ben Roethlisberger should mean improvement for Wallace in 2012. The only way a late third round, WR9, I a value pick is if he ends up top-5. Exactly. I would take Wallace above all WRs except the top-4 of Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Roddy White.

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