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Overvalued TEs

Read the introduction to this series if you haven't yet.

Jacob Tamme - DEN ADP: 115 overall, TE 11 5 votes

Bruce Hammond - Tamme is listed with an ADP of TE11, and I'm sure the reason has to do with perceived chemistry with Peyton Manning. In 2010 when Dallas Clark was lost due to injury, Tamme filled the void with 67 catches, mostly in the last 10 games of the year. However this is not 2010, circumstances may not be the same, and it might not even be the same quality Peyton Manning after neck surgeries and a year off. Also, there are so many good tight ends these days that TE11 for a rather average guy like Tamme is too lofty for my taste. I'd view that sort of ranking as more of a ceiling than an expectation. Denver also added Dreessen who is a decent pass catching tight end. Wide receivers Decker and Caldwell should be solid possession guys (and Demaryius Thomas a potential star), and running backs Hillman and possibly Fannin should also be in the mix for good reception numbers. I'd lower expectations for Tamme's ranking into the later teens.

Dave Larkin - Jacob Tamme has been receiving some positive press lately in the wake of the Peyton Manning move. It is sensible enough to project that Tamme will be the primary target at the tight end position for Manning. After all, he has an existing relationship with Tamme, who produced 67 receptions in 2010 in Indianapolis. The fact remains, however, that Tamme is merely an average player. While he will be the target of check down style passes, I don't see him stretching the field. His hands are, at times, uncoordinated with his body, resulting in dropped passes. The Manning factor may be enough to make him a tight end worth stashing away, but in the end I believe the production will be too inconsistent and difficult to predict.

Marc Levin - I can see the argument in favor of Jacob Tamme at this spot. I just don't buy it. "Peyton Manning has always used his tight end," proponents will argue. Yes, and he had a top-notch talent named Dallas Clark at tight end and a top-notch pass blocking offensive line in front of him when he did it. Denver currently has neither. Do I believe Manning will drastically improve the 58 targets and 27 catches Denver tight ends had in 2011? Yes. But, counting on Manning creating a top-12 tight end on this particular team is a stretch. There are other tight ends drafted later with just as much, or more, upside -- namely Jared Cook, Jermaine Gresham, and Owen Daniels a round or two later.

Aaron Rudnicki - The Broncos signed Tamme to provide a security blanket for Peyton Manning in his new surroundings. While he will most likely make a very solid TE2, I think there are several players being drafted after him that have more upside at a lower cost.

Mark Wimer - Jacob Tamme has history with Peyton Manning, and he may prove to be the top tight end for the Broncos this year. However, there is a learning curve for all involved up there in Denver, and I'm not sure that Tamme is going to win the top job over Julius Thomas and Joel Dreesen. Until I get a clearer picture of how the depth chart at tight end is shaking out up in Denver, I'm not rolling the dice on Tamme at his current top-12 average draft position among tight ends.

Jermichael Finley - GB ADP: 68 overall, TE 7 3 votes

Jeff Pasquino - Finley has missed significant playing time in his young career and he has already admitted to "chemistry" issues with Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have lots of targets in the passing game and his issues with drops (he led the league in drop rate with 13 of 103 chances, about one of every eight targets) could frustrate many fantasy team owners counting on him to be their weekly starter. I think he does have Top 10 potential but his ADP leaves almost no room for upside against plenty of downside.

Jeff Tefertiller - Jermichael Finley has consistently underperformed during his brief NFL career. Finley has battled maturity issues and struggled with dropped passes. With the Packers having so many talented receivers, it will be difficult for the athletic tight end to live up to his TE6 draft status in the sixth round. Why not wait a few rounds and select Tony Gonzalez or Fred Davis? It would be different if Finley has enjoyed a solid season or two like those drafted rounds after Finley. Aaron Rodgers spreads the ball around enough that Finley will not see enough pass targets to warrant his ADP.

Mark Wimer - Finley dropped a lot of passes late in the year for Green Bay, and he seemed to lose Aaron Rodgers confidence/trust as a result of his poor hands during the run into the playoffs. The team gave him what amounts to a one-year, prove-it type of contract in the offseason - hardly a big vote of confidence. I'm passing on Finley in my fantasy drafts this year.

Martellus Bennett - NYG ADP: 197 overall, TE 19 2 votes

Steve Holloway - In Bennett's four years with the Cowboys, he averaged 21 receptions per year and with his one year free agent try-out, he suddenly jumps up to tight end #19. Say it ain't so! If he is the Giants' starting tight end, I suggest that will increase the value of all their wide receivers.

Jason Wood - Is it possible to rate a 19th ranked tight end overvalue? Yes, when that player is Martellus Bennett. He's been the definition of unrealized potential thus far in his career, and if reports from OTAs are any indication, he showed up to New York overweight and out of shape. How someone can show up to a new team, where they have a legitimate chance to earn a starting role, and lack the drive to be in shape is beyond me. But it's enough to assure i won't draft Bennett as my fantasy backup. You shouldn't either.

Fred Davis - WAS ADP: 86 overall, TE 8 2 votes

Steve Holloway - Fred Davis had a career year in 2011 with 59 catches for 796 yards, but scored only 3 TDs in 12 games as the primary receiving weapon for the Redskins. Davis missed the final four games, suspended for allegedly using marijuana. Chris Cooley should return this year and the team shifted Niles Paul, previously a WR to the TE position. They also added Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan at wide receiver so Davis will have several talented folks competing for his targets this year.

Maurile Tremblay - I expect the Redskins to throw more to their wide receivers this year, which will mean correspondingly fewer targets for Fred Davis. Unless and until the Redskins release Chris Cooley, I also worry about Cooley eating into Davis' targets.

Vernon Davis - SF ADP: 64 overall, TE 5 2 votes

Andy Hicks - Vernon Davis is one of the best tight ends in he game. He excels as a receiver, but also excels as a blocker and with the addition of Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and A.J Jenkins, he may have to do more of the latter. The run game will also be prominent, so his opportunities as a receiver should diminish. He will have excellent games however, but not often enough for those expecting elite numbers.

Marc Levin - The issue with drafting Davis at his current ADP is not whether he might be able to match his 2011 numbers. Instead, it is that there has been a "rising of the waters" at the position. He can be counted on for around 70 catches, a little less than 1,000 yards, and 7, maybe 8, touchdowns. However, that is not going to be enough to distinguish him from the tight ends drafted a few rounds later. And, unfortunately for those hoping to land Davis as their starting tight end , he is likely to be selected at the top of that tight end tier. If you can get similar production from a tight end selected two rounds later, Davis becomes an overvalued player.

Antonio Gates - SD ADP: 56 overall, TE 3 2 votes

Will Grant - In pure Points per Game comparisons, Gates wins out. He's a pure stud who could very easily finish as one of the top TE in the league. However, I don't think that he's going to give you enough overall points to justify taking him in the 5th round.

Mark Wimer - Antonio Gates is reportedly back to 100% healthy despite his chronic foot problems, but I'm not willing to expend a top pick to get a guy who has only managed to play (mostly part-time) in 23 of the last 32 games for San Diego. He's too risky for my taste at 32 years old.

Tony Gonzalez - ATL ADP: 98 overall, TE 10 2 votes

Ryan Hester - The only part of the Atlanta passing game that brings great value, in my opinion, is Julio Jones at a PPR league ADP of 30. Gonzalez had a nice year in 2011 -- particularly for an aging veteran -- but he's still an aging veteran. And I'd rather put my fantasy fate in the hands of younger players whose arrows are pointing in an upward direction. Gonzalez will be a nice, albeit unspectacular option at tight end. He almost always plays 16 games and hasn't had fewer than 76 catches in his three years with Atlanta. I'd rather take my chances in 2012 with Jacob Tamme (113) or Owen Daniels (118).

Jeff Pasquino - Tony Gonzalez is getting older and older faster and faster. Was he productive last year? Yes, but it was on well over 100 targets and Gonzalez has next to nothing after the catch any longer. It has been four years since Gonzalez was able to top 11 yard per receptions and the Falcons are more interested in getting the ball in the hands of Julio Jones and Roddy White. Gonzalez is going to slow down more and more, which means that he could be next to nonexistent in December this year, which will not help any fantasy teams come playoff time. Look for a better tight end value, either earlier in the draft or later for a guy with more upside.

Jared Cook - TEN ADP: 123 overall, TE 13 1 vote

Steve Holloway - Entering his fourth season, Cook caught a career high 49 passes for 759 yards and 3 TDs last season. The Titans have more receiving options this year though with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Damian Williams and rookie Kendall Wright. I can't see additional opportunities for Cook to improve his production.

Rob Gronkowski - NE ADP: 14 overall, TE 1 1 vote

David Yudkin - Gronkowski had a season for the ages last year and would have ranked as the #2 wide receiver after Calvin Johnson. But the chances Gronkowski can repeat that level of productivity is fairly remote for a lot of reasons. One, his ankle required surgery and he may not be 100% to start the season. Two, the Patriots added a lot of depth at the wide receiver position that should cut into Gronkowski's targets. Third, Tom Brady threw over 600 passes last season . . . far above his totals the previous nine years. Given that Gronkowski's ADP is currently 14th OVERALL, he would have to produce at close to the same level as last year to make it worth drafting him that early.

Brandon Pettigrew - DET ADP: 87 overall, TE 9 1 vote

Jeff Pasquino - Detroit had next to no running game last year once Jahvid Best was sidelined, so they turned to a short passing game to their tight end as a replacement for a ground attack. Matthew Stafford targeted Pettigrew a whopping 125 times, second most for any tight end last year - yet he was barely in the Top 12 in fantasy. Why? Under 10 yards per reception and just five touchdowns. Pettigrew is overrated, especially if the Lions get a ground game going this year.

Jason Witten - DAL ADP: 67 overall, TE 6 1 vote

Ryan Hester - Witten is coming off his worst statistical season since 2006 after notching just 79 receptions, 942 yards, and five touchdowns. Typically, when a nine-year veteran begins decline, it's difficult to turn around. Witten only received an average of 5.8 targets per game in the second half of 2011 -- a sharp decline from his 8.9 targets per game average in the first half. Witten will also continue to share the field with Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, who will be ideally be healthier than last season where they both missed games and played with some injuries. I'd rather roll the dice with later picks like Jermichael Finley (59) and Brandon Pettigrew (73).

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