Introduction • QB: [under] [over]  • RB: [under] [over]  • WR: [under] [over]  • TE: [under] [over]

Overvalued QBs

Read the introduction to this series if you haven't yet.

Tony Romo - DAL ADP: 59 overall, QB 11 7 votes

Sigmund Bloom - Romo has produced elite quarterback numbers for decent stretches of his career. He has also been out or hurt almost annually and put up a goose egg in the championship last year with little to no warning. The interior of the Cowboys offensive line is one big question mark, just like the health of Romo's tight end and one of his ubertalented receivers. Let someone else take him when the second tier quarterbacks start going off of the board.

Heath Cummings - The preseason couldn't have gone worse for Romo. Miles Austin and Jason Witten have already been ruled out until at least Week 1, Dez Bryant will be taking at least a few days off with tendinitis in his knee, and the offensive line has looked patchwork at best. I love Romo's talent but I hate what has happened to his supporting cast.

Jeff Haseley - I am staying away from Romo in drafts this year. I have a feeling that things aren't going to go as planned for him. The Cowboys have been hit by injuries already and the season hasn't even begun yet. The offensive line, from what I have seen this year, has caused him to throw early and not allow him to get into any sort of rhythm. I would rather have Matt Ryan, Eli Manning and even Philip Rivers ahead of him at this time.

Ryan Hester - Romo actually garnered a vote from me in the Value Plays section when we did this exercise the first time. Much has changed since then, obviously. His offensive line looks putrid, Miles Austin has a hamstring injury, Dez Bryant is suffering though patella tendonitis in his knee, Jason Witten ruptured his spleen (and it's unknown how much time he'll miss), and last year's safety blanket -- Laurent Robinson -- parlayed his great season into a free agent contract with Jacksonville. If you can get past all that, go ahead and grab Romo as the seventh QB off the board. I'll wait a little bit on Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, or Peyton Manning instead.

Aaron Rudnicki - Last year, Romo finished as the #7 ranked QB but he was helped by a relatively healthy supporting cast and a surprising year from Laurent Robinson. Robinson signed with the Jaguars and there doesn't appear to be any clear options in place to replace his production as the #3 WR. A bigger concern, however, is the health of the top targets in Dallas. Jason Witten could miss significant time with a spleen injury, Miles Austin is dealing with a hamstring injury, and Dez Bryant recently had a scary incident with his knee. The Cowboys running game also looks to be in great hands with DeMarco Murray and the defense should be significantly improved with an upgraded secondary. All of those factors should result in fewer passes, yards, and touchdowns for Romo this year.

Mark Wimer - Romo is a great quarterback, but his receiving corps is disintegrating around him. Miles Austin has (another) nagging hamstring injury - sore hamstrings cost him six games last season. Dez Bryant has been diagnosed with patellar tendinitis in his knee. Jason Witten took a hard shot to his spleen and will likely miss 6-8 weeks (and that's a best case scenario - if surgery is called for he'll miss most if not all of the season). Romo will likely have a slow start to the season due to the turmoil at wide receiver and tight end, and if none of the stars gets back to 100% healthy Romo could be hampered throughout 2012.

Jason Wood - This feels strange. Usually I'm the guy defending Tony Romo and explaining that his lack of playoff success is hardly a condemnation of his skills. To be clear, Romo remains one of the most SKILLED passers in the league. Unfortunately, this year I'm worried about his supporting cast. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin have missed preseason time with injuries. There is no viable third receiver on the roster. And Jason Witten has a spleen concern. Add to that a makeshift interior offensive line, and I just don't feel comfortable drafting Romo as my starter when there are players like Matt Ryan and Eli Manning coming off the board at the same point.

Robert Griffin III - WAS ADP: 79 overall, QB 12 5 votes

Andy Hicks - Those expecting Cam Newton part 2, need to relax a little bit. He plays for Washington and expectations are always going to be higher there than in Carolina. Robert Griffin is unproven at this level and to achieve his current ADP he needs to achieve what less than a handful of QBs have done in history, be a fantasy starter in their rookie season. If you are considering Griffin this high, lower your expectations and don't let hype guide you.

Marc Levin - I honestly don't have a problem with folks seeing upside potential with this pick to start a QBBC. My issue is with how high he is going and who is on the board when he is drafted. While football is a young man's game, quarterback is one position where fantasy owners should draft experience over youth. With established veterans like Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman, and Matt Schaub being drafted a round or more after Griffin, the depth of this year's QB2 class is clear. I would take one of those more reliable options for my QBBC and use my 7th round pick to shore up a different position.

Jeff Pasquino - Robert Griffin enters the NFL with a lot of promise and hype, but he cannot solve all of the issues with Washington and that offense. Griffin will start Week 1, but the Redskins have limited options in the passing game at wide receiver. Pierre Garcon is not a true NFL WR1 (he is much better with a stronger wide receiver on the other side of him), and Washington is sorting through two younger players (Josh Morgan, Leonard Hankerson) and an old veteran (Santana Moss) for their other starter at wideout. Fred Davis is solid, but he also has some off the field issues that could reoccur at any time. With no strong ground game either, that is a lot of burden on a first year rookie that will face Dallas, Philadelphia and the Giants twice each this year.

Chris Smith - If we are talking dynasty league and not redraft fantasy football then Griffin III would be hugely undervalued with an ADP of 82. He has a live arm, is a leader and moves around the pocket like Michael Vick. However Cam Newton's phenomenal 2011 rookie performance has the world seeing rookie QB production through Newton-colored glasses. Griffin should not be the 12th quarterback taken in fantasy football this season. He has a learning curve ahead of him.

Mark Wimer - Robert Griffin III was brought in to help remake the Redskins' offense, and he appears to have the tools needed to make that happen - in the long term. However, he's still a rookie quarterback and more rookies struggle in their first season than become the 'next' Cam Newton. Griffin's current ADP of 13 - on the cusp of quarterback-one-level production - is an overly enthusiastic valuation, and nothing I've seen from him so far in preseason has changed my opinion -5/8 for 49 yards, zero TDs and zero interceptions passing at Chicago wasn't disastrous, but it wasn't exciting, either.

Peyton Manning - DEN ADP: 58 overall, QB 10 5 votes

Sigmund Bloom - Peyton is getting by on reputation right now. There will be rust to knock off, arm strength to regain, and chemistry to build with a new set of receivers. Manning's projected numbers also have to accommodate a head coach who likes to run. The payoff of a selection of Peyton is unknown, but it is hard to picture him reproducing the kind of success he had in Indianapolis this year.

Mike Brown - He's one of the best the game has ever seen, but count me out on spending a pick to make a guy my number one quarterback after four neck surgeries in recent years. Not to mention, his numbers were already starting to regress a bit before the surgeries. Now that he's throwing to Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, we're supposed to assume he's going to go back to being amongst the elite?

Jeff Haseley - Take this with a grain of salt, but I am a little concerned with Manning. It may just be him being on a different team, different offense, but I've seen him miss some throws in camp/preseason that he made pre-injury. I still think he'll figure it out - the guy is such a competitor, but there is some cause for concern in my opinion.

Jeff Pasquino - Manning has looked good so far in Denver, but it is very early and you cannot look entirely at the future Hall of Fame quarterback with rose colored glasses. Manning is not only one bad hit away from permanent retirement -- there is also no Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark or Marvin Harrison on the Broncos roster. Sure Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Jacob Tamme show promise, but both wide receivers have only known Manning for a few months. It takes years for Manning and his favored targets to really know what each other is thinking and be perfectly in tune in the passing game. Manning is a strong backup (QB13+) for fantasy this year but I think it is risky to rely on him as your starter every week.

Aaron Rudnicki - Even though we'll still likely see flashes of the old gunslinger, this isn't going to be the same Peyton Manning we're used to watching from his time in Indianapolis. There are concerns about the health of his neck and strength of his arm, plus the Broncos coaches will likely try to rely more on the running game than the Colts ever did. At this price, I'd pass on Peyton and try to grab a QB like Roethlisberger or Cutler a round or two later.

Michael Vick - PHI ADP: 42 overall, QB 7 5 votes

Heath Cummings - I'm just not sure how anyone can project a full season worth of stats for Vick at this point. He's vowed to play it safer in 2012, and that doesn't exactly get me excited for a very productive fantasy season. I still think Vick can be a useful QB1, I just don't think he's one you need to grab very early. Either he plays with reckless abandon and risks yet another injury, or he's a league average pocket passer. Either way, he probably won't end up on my team this season.

Steve Holloway - Vick finished as the #11 quarterback a year ago even as his completion percentage dropped back under 60% from a career high of 62.6% in 2010. His interceptions also more than doubled last year and his rushing TDs fell from 9 to 1. He again missed three games last season and has not played 16 games since his return to the NFL after his prison term. For a quarterback that depends so heavily on his scrambling ability and his rushing production, why is this not discounted for his advanced age? He will be 32 this year and that is a death knell for running backs. He has already been injured twice in the pre-season so you also have that continuing concern with Vick. It will be very surprising for him to run well enough to match his recent rushing production.

Marc Levin - When Michael Vick plays, he can single-handedly win your fantasy week. Unfortunately, he is a high injury risk. In fact, he has played in 16 games in only one season. He does not produce great passing numbers, so, he must run to provide decent fantasy value. If he runs, his injury risk increases. It's a catch-22. He has already suffered a couple of minor injuries in the preseason. To spend a high pick on my quarterback, and then to not be able to rely on him every week, is simply too rich for my blood.

Matt Waldman - The Monday night performance against the Patriots was just one more game where I've seen Vick try to make a heroic play in the face of danger when he should have been more cautious with his body. Vick routinely exposes his body to oncoming pass rushers because of his extreme confidence in his arm strength from awkward throwing positions, and his terrific mobility. He actually creates more dangerous situations for himself because he's willing to wait until the last moment to deliver the football. He has never changed this tendency and while it sometimes generates thrilling plays, it also gets him hurt. I cannot justify taking Vick for his upside when I think Tony Romo, Eli Manning, and Matt Ryan have equal to better skill talent to deliver the ball and take fewer outrageous chances with their bodies.

Jason Wood - Michael Vick is being drafted in his own tier as a 4th rounder in 12-team leagues, and that's simply too much risk given his injury history. Vick was forced out of back-to-back preseason games with hand and rib injuries, and the Eagles seem to have a massive question mark at left tackle as neither King Dunlap nor Demetress Bell can come close to matching what Jason Peters brought as a blocker. Vick will be amazing when he's on the field, but you're going to have to draft your backup QB very early -- which runs counter to the value that can be had at other positions (particularly wide receiver) at a similar point in your draft.

Cam Newton - CAR ADP: 17 overall, QB 5 4 votes

Andy Hicks - Cam Newton was a rookie phenomenon - 4000 passing yards, 21 passing TDs and 14 rushing TDs. You seriously cannot use this as a baseline for 2012. Before I invest such a high pick in Newton, I want to see how he copes after opposing defenses have had a whole year to work on neutralizing his abilities and then see how he deals with high expectations in his 2nd full season as a starter. We only have to look at recent history with players like Michael Vick and Vince Young, who had phenomenal early success only to falter the next year. It doesn't always work out.

Steve Holloway - Keller's number of targets and receptions have increased in each of his four years in the NFL with the Jets. He has finished as the #9 tight end each of the last two seasons and suddenly has an ADP of TE 17. This decreased ADP is all about the Jets' quarterback situation with both Sanchez and Tebow playing poorly in the pre-season games. I believe that eventually the quarterback play will improve and Keller will be the most often targeted Jet receiver.

Jeff Pasquino - Cam Newton is going as a Top 5 quarterback, but I think most of this is due to the ridiculous amount of rushing touchdowns he posted last year (14 scores). I do not think that will be a repeat performance this year as Carolina added Mike Tolbert from San Diego as a free agent, who is going to be more of a lead back and fullback for the Panthers. Jonathan Stewart should get more chances again this year as this is likely to be his final year in Carolina so the Panthers will work him hard to get their money's worth and also to increase their chances of a good compensatory draft pick once he leaves as a free agent. Newton and the Carolina passing game is not strong enough to support Newton as a Top 5 quarterback and frankly there are much better and cheaper options later in the draft.

Chris Smith - I like Cam Newton obviously but having to take him in the late second round to secure his services is just too much. It is extremely unlikely that his rushing touchdowns approach last year's high total and sometimes the sophomore jinx will result in some frustrations as player's try to elevate to the next level. Can Newton once again be a fantasy force and justify the high ADP for his services this year? Of course he can but I'd rather pick up a Matt Ryan rounds later as I see their potential for fantasy points very similar in 2012.

Andy Dalton - CIN ADP: 133 overall, QB 19 2 votes

Sigmund Bloom - An 11th round ADP makes it hard for him to be too overvalued, but Dalton should not be going ahead of Luck, Locker, and Fitzpatrick. Dalton has limited upside on a week-to-week basis and will likely not be much better than the top waiver wire option at quarterback when your starter is on bye. He also won't offer the scoring potential of some quarterbacks that will be available for trade in your league if your starters misses significant time. I would rather go without a backup than spend an 11th-15th on Dalton instead of any RB/WR flier.

Jason Wood - I don't dislike Andy Dalton. In many ways, his rookie numbers (3,398 yards and 20 TDs) were a dream outcome for Bengals fans. He led them to the playoffs as a rookie, and fantasy owners ended up with the 15th ranked fantasy passer for almost no cost. Yet, I wouldn't draft him this year at his ADP. To my mind, Dalton is limited physically and is a prime candidate to regress this year. Plus, he's not mobile. If I'm going to target a young passer as my fantasy QB2, I would prefer someone with mobility like Jake Locker or Russell Wilson. Either way, Dalton is rarely going to be a advantage against your opponents quarterback, and I think it's smarter to draft a higher upside, higher risk prospect later in the draft.

Tom Brady - NE ADP: 5 overall, QB 2 1 vote

Heath Cummings - I know we've entered a new era and there are rules to protect quarterbacks who are extending their careers, but the twilight of Tom Brady's career is approaching nonetheless. The past two seasons of Brady have done nothing to suggest a decline, but I still think you're playing a little bit of quarterback roulette anytime you draft a one who is 35 years old in the first round. I'd be glad to take him at the end of the second or later.

Drew Brees - NO ADP: 8 overall, QB 3 1 vote

Mike Brown - No matter what we hear about how well they played with Payton out last year, I'm of the believe that not having Sean Payton will likely disrupt the offense at least a little bit. Otherwise if there was literally no difference, then that's kind of a slap in the face to Payton in my opinion. But even more than that is the fact of simple regression. Brees set career highs in just about everything a year ago. Fantasy owners will be drafting with those stats fresh in mind. After never throwing for more than 34 touchdowns, he suddenly hit 46. All the while, he was obliterating Dan Marino's yardage mark and completing over 71% of his pass attempts. None of those are likely to happen again, and I don't think the regression has been factored into his price enough. If he drops back to typical career norms, you'll have spent a high second round pick on stats that will probably be there a few rounds later from Matt Ryan or Michael Vick.

Jay Cutler - CHI ADP: 82 overall, QB 14 1 vote

Mark Wimer - Jay Cutler has an awful offensive line in front of him. Even though the team brought in Brandon Marshall to help elevate the passing game, Cutler will still be feeling a lot of pressure in Chicago this season - too much pressure to consistently deliver the production fantasy owners expect from their starters.

Philip Rivers - SD ADP: 56 overall, QB 9 1 vote

Ryan Hester - Rivers is going off the board, on average, as the 10th quarterback. Rivers is safe. If healthy, he'll finish as somewhere between QB9 and QB12. But if I'm the 10th person in my league to draft a QB, my plan is to "go for gold" and take a chance on someone who could emerge in a big way. We know who Rivers is at this point. His weapons, already mediocre at best, have been diminished by injuries to Ryan Mathews and -- moreso -- Vincent Brown. I'd rather take a chance that Peyton Manning returns to at least 90% of his pre-injury form or that Robert Griffin III can use the Cam Newton Formula of supplementing QB10 passing numbers with elite rushing skills that put him somewhere in the QB7 range. I'd even give Jay Cutler a chance to outperform Rivers because of his reunion with Brandon Marshall and the ongoing emergence of rookie Alshon Jeffrey.

Matt Ryan - ATL ADP: 45 overall, QB 8 1 vote

Andy Hicks - Few players have seen their ADP rise as rapidly in August as Matt Ryan. He now becomes a scary proposition in every draft and I have seen him taken in the first or 2nd round of some drafts. Sure the Falcons offense may look good, but drafting him around the likes of Brees, Brady and Rodgers is insanity. He needs to throw for 40 TDs to match a draft slot like that and he offers no rushing threat, throws a good amount of picks and is 0-3 in the playoffs. That last fact gives me concern about his ability to be an elite QB.

Matthew Stafford - DET ADP: 14 overall, QB 4 1 vote

Chris Smith - Stafford had a spectacular season last year; in many other years would have been the MVP of the league. However with an ADP of 25 this year, that is a lot to commit for a player who has some injury risk and who may have just enjoyed his high water mark season. Without question, Stafford can duplicate the amazing run he had last year but I still have him in a tier with Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Tony Romo, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers for possible fantasy production and I can draft some of those guys rounds later. I will let somebody else pick up Stafford in the late second, early third round in 2012.

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