There is something about the eight- or ten-team leagues that make them a lot of fun. The size makes them much different than the standard 12-teamers. Just like with the larger leagues, it is a losing proposition to use standard draft strategies. An entirely different strategy is required to make the most of the draft. This article will specifically look at 10-team leagues using non-PPR scoring. We will examine strategies especially designed for the smaller leagues in order to best attack the draft and get the most from the roster. This will help you form a new strategy for your small-sized league.
Down to basics, what are the differences I should know about the small leagues?
Since there are no scarcity issues, everything is about the studs. The whole draft is focused on how to draft enough elite players to win. It is only through the studs that an owner can gain an edge over his leaguemates. The top two or three players at each position outscore the rest by tremendous amounts.
Knowing how to best attack the quarterback position is one of the biggest keys to small leagues? Is it necessary to select a passer early in the draft like in the bigger leagues?
The running back position is one where the drop-off in expected production comes earlier in 2012 than in years gone by. How can I take advantage of this phenomena?
With only fifty wide receivers rostered, on average, how do we gain an edge?
Is there is a valid reason to take a kicker or team defense early?
How do I best address these questions above?
Since we need studs in order to gain advantages, how best do I go about drafting these players? The top players at every position give their owners a huge edge. The best way to get these studs is to be proactive in your draft. When the value stagnates at one position, look for studs at another. In the table below, we can see how a top wideout has a similar value to a large group of backs. So, why not gain an edge at receiver and select a similar rusher next round? It pays to be proactive and look for talent plateaus and drop-offs. Look for studs. A top kicker or defense might be a great pick earlier than you would think, especially if they give you a two or three points per game edge each week.
In smaller (eight or ten teams) leagues which start only one passer, there is no reason to address the position before the fifth round unless you get a stud at an outstanding value. There will be great fantasy quarterbacks available. In smaller leagues, owners want to wait on quarterback (because there are so many good options) which makes the good passers drop further. So, wait on quarterback and try to find studs at other positions.
We will look a little later at how weighted the values are slanted toward the backs. The ball carriers have a huge VBD value edge over the other positions so it is best to lock up as many top rushers as possible. The expected fantasy production for these players at the position has definite tiers. But, even the lesser fantasy starters are worth more than most all quarterbacks and every tight end.
Unless going after a bona fide stud (Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, or Julio Jones), it is best to wait on the wide receiver position until ten or fifteen are off the board. There is very little difference in expected production so you might as well stock up on the position (running back) where you gain an advantage.
There are at least ten good kickers and team defenses so every team can have a good option. You should employ one of two strategies for the kicker position. Either take a stud earlier than you would think, or wait until ten are gone. The stud gives you an extra few points a game so it is a viable strategy. For the team defense position, it is best to play matchups with a smaller league. There will be plenty of good options available on the waiver wire each week from which to choose. Many times, it is better to have a mediocre defense with a great matchup than a good defense with a mediocre matchup.
When we look at the VBD (Value Based Drafting) application, we quickly realize how valued the running backs are when compared to the other positions. The VBD accounts for positional scarcity and available options at other positions using the Footballguys.com projections. It is amazing that only one quarterback and zero wide receivers were valued in the first rounds. If we look at just the first two rounds of a ten-team draft (in terms of VBD), three quarterbacks and one wide receiver are worth a pick. Further, even with the strong showing by the elite tight ends (Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski) last year, they are not valued as Top 20 players. The league variables used were ten teams, sixteen roster spots, non-PPR scoring, and starting requirements of 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 3 wide receivers, 1 tight end, 1 flex, 1 kicker, and 1 team defense. The depth at the quarterback and wide receiver positions means that a fantasy owner can afford to wait on those positions while stocking up on rushers.
It is obvious looking at the table below that smaller leagues dictate a strong nucleus of running backs.
Rank |
Pos |
PosRank |
Player |
Team/Bye |
Points |
VBD |
ADP |
1 |
RB |
1 |
Arian Foster |
Hou/8 |
267 |
166 |
1.01 |
2 |
RB |
2 |
Ray Rice |
Bal/8 |
256 |
155 |
1.02 |
3 |
RB |
3 |
LeSean McCoy |
Phi/7 |
232 |
131 |
1.04 |
4 |
RB |
4 |
Chris Johnson |
Ten/11 |
201 |
100 |
1.06 |
5 |
RB |
5 |
Matt Forte |
Chi/6 |
198 |
97 |
2.01 |
6 |
RB |
6 |
Darren McFadden |
Oak/5 |
197 |
96 |
1.09 |
7 |
QB |
1 |
Aaron Rodgers |
GB/10 |
391 |
91 |
1.03 |
8 |
RB |
7 |
DeMarco Murray |
Dal/5 |
192 |
91 |
2.05 |
9 |
RB |
8 |
Jamaal Charles |
KC/7 |
186 |
85 |
2.09 |
10 |
RB |
9 |
Trent Richardson |
Cle/10 |
185 |
84 |
2.04 |
11 |
RB |
10 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
Jac/6 |
184 |
83 |
1.08 |
12 |
RB |
11 |
Ahmad Bradshaw |
NYG/11 |
183 |
82 |
4.04 |
13 |
RB |
12 |
Doug Martin |
TB/5 |
177 |
76 |
5.03 |
14 |
WR |
1 |
Calvin Johnson |
Det/5 |
210 |
76 |
1.05 |
15 |
RB |
13 |
Steven Jackson |
StL/9 |
176 |
75 |
3.04 |
16 |
RB |
14 |
Fred Jackson |
Buf/8 |
172 |
71 |
4.01 |
17 |
RB |
15 |
Marshawn Lynch |
Sea/11 |
170 |
69 |
3.07 |
18 |
RB |
16 |
Ryan Mathews |
SD/7 |
169 |
68 |
3.03 |
19 |
RB |
17 |
Michael Turner |
Atl/7 |
164 |
63 |
4.05 |
20 |
RB |
18 |
Frank Gore |
SF/9 |
161 |
60 |
4.08 |
21 |
RB |
19 |
Adrian Peterson |
Min/11 |
161 |
60 |
3.01 |
22 |
QB |
2 |
Tom Brady |
NE/9 |
357 |
58 |
1.07 |
23 |
QB |
3 |
Drew Brees |
NO/6 |
355 |
55 |
1.10 |
24 |
RB |
20 |
Reggie Bush |
Mia/7 |
155 |
54 |
6.01 |
25 |
RB |
21 |
Willis McGahee |
Den/7 |
155 |
54 |
7.08 |
26 |
TE |
1 |
Jimmy Graham |
NO/6 |
168 |
51 |
2.03 |
27 |
TE |
2 |
Rob Gronkowski |
NE/9 |
167 |
50 |
2.06 |
28 |
RB |
22 |
Shonn Greene |
NYJ/9 |
150 |
49 |
6.07 |
29 |
RB |
23 |
Darren Sproles |
NO/6 |
149 |
48 |
4.06 |
30 |
RB |
24 |
Donald Brown |
Ind/4 |
147 |
46 |
9.05 |
31 |
RB |
25 |
BenJarvus Green-Ellis |
Cin/8 |
145 |
44 |
6.10 |
32 |
QB |
4 |
Cam Newton |
Car/6 |
343 |
44 |
2.08 |
33 |
RB |
26 |
Isaac Redman |
Pit/4 |
143 |
42 |
7.05 |
34 |
WR |
2 |
Julio Jones |
Atl/7 |
172 |
38 |
3.09 |
35 |
WR |
3 |
Larry Fitzgerald |
Ari/10 |
172 |
37 |
2.02 |
36 |
QB |
5 |
Matthew Stafford |
Det/5 |
333 |
34 |
2.07 |
37 |
RB |
27 |
Mark Ingram |
NO/6 |
132 |
31 |
9.09 |
38 |
WR |
4 |
Andre Johnson |
Hou/8 |
164 |
29 |
2.10 |
39 |
WR |
5 |
Greg Jennings |
GB/10 |
161 |
27 |
3.02 |
40 |
WR |
6 |
Roddy White |
Atl/7 |
161 |
27 |
3.05 |
41 |
WR |
7 |
A.J. Green |
Cin/8 |
161 |
27 |
3.08 |
42 |
RB |
28 |
Stevan Ridley |
NE/9 |
127 |
26 |
8.05 |
43 |
RB |
29 |
DeAngelo Williams |
Car/6 |
125 |
25 |
9.08 |
44 |
RB |
30 |
Jonathan Stewart |
Car/6 |
123 |
22 |
8.03 |
45 |
WR |
8 |
Dez Bryant |
Dal/5 |
154 |
20 |
5.02 |
46 |
WR |
9 |
Percy Harvin |
Min/11 |
154 |
20 |
5.06 |
47 |
RB |
31 |
Roy Helu |
Was/10 |
119 |
18 |
7.09 |
48 |
WR |
10 |
Mike Wallace |
Pit/4 |
152 |
18 |
4.10 |
49 |
RB |
32 |
C.J. Spiller |
Buf/8 |
118 |
17 |
8.06 |
50 |
WR |
11 |
Victor Cruz |
NYG/11 |
151 |
17 |
3.10 |
The table above represents the Top 50 players in terms of VBD. There are a few things that jump out. As we discussed, the value of studs is immense. Notice the VBD values for the three top players in comparison to the rest of the players, even very good players. Who would have thought that these players would hold values equaling two others, who are still worth first round picks? Also, as we progress to the 50th overall player, the wide receivers are just starting to gain ground on the running backs, and we will see this trend continue.
Rank |
Pos |
PosRank |
Player |
Team/Bye |
Points |
VBD |
ADP |
51 |
WR |
12 |
Hakeem Nicks |
NYG/11 |
151 |
17 |
4.03 |
52 |
WR |
13 |
Steve Smith |
Car/6 |
150 |
16 |
5.01 |
53 |
RB |
33 |
Chris Wells |
Ari/10 |
116 |
15 |
8.01 |
54 |
WR |
14 |
Demaryius Thomas |
Den/7 |
149 |
15 |
5.07 |
55 |
QB |
6 |
Michael Vick |
Phi/7 |
312 |
13 |
4.09 |
56 |
WR |
15 |
Brandon Marshall |
Chi/6 |
147 |
12 |
4.02 |
57 |
WR |
16 |
Jordy Nelson |
GB/10 |
147 |
12 |
4.07 |
58 |
RB |
34 |
Peyton Hillis |
KC/7 |
113 |
12 |
8.08 |
59 |
TE |
3 |
Antonio Gates |
SD/7 |
128 |
11 |
5.10 |
60 |
WR |
17 |
Vincent Jackson |
TB/5 |
145 |
10 |
6.04 |
61 |
TE |
4 |
Aaron Hernandez |
NE/9 |
127 |
10 |
6.03 |
62 |
WR |
18 |
DeSean Jackson |
Phi/7 |
144 |
10 |
7.04 |
63 |
RB |
35 |
Michael Bush |
Chi/6 |
110 |
9 |
10.08 |
64 |
WR |
19 |
Denarius Moore |
Oak/5 |
142 |
8 |
9.10 |
65 |
WR |
20 |
Miles Austin |
Dal/5 |
142 |
8 |
5.05 |
66 |
WR |
21 |
Marques Colston |
NO/6 |
141 |
7 |
5.04 |
67 |
RB |
36 |
Ryan Williams |
Ari/10 |
108 |
7 |
12.01 |
68 |
WR |
22 |
Steve Johnson |
Buf/8 |
139 |
5 |
7.02 |
69 |
QB |
7 |
Eli Manning |
NYG/11 |
304 |
5 |
5.09 |
70 |
PK |
1 |
Stephen Gostkowski |
NE/9 |
136 |
5 |
14.08 |
71 |
WR |
23 |
Antonio Brown |
Pit/4 |
139 |
4 |
7.07 |
72 |
QB |
8 |
Philip Rivers |
SD/7 |
302 |
3 |
6.06 |
73 |
DEF |
1 |
San Francisco |
SF/9 |
149 |
2 |
10.01 |
74 |
RB |
37 |
Cedric Benson |
FA |
102 |
1 |
22.09 |
75 |
RB |
38 |
Pierre Thomas |
NO/6 |
101 |
0 |
14.02 |
76 |
WR |
24 |
Dwayne Bowe |
KC/7 |
134 |
0 |
6.05 |
77 |
WR |
25 |
Wes Welker |
NE/9 |
134 |
0 |
3.06 |
78 |
RB |
39 |
Kevin Smith |
Det/5 |
101 |
0 |
12.05 |
79 |
DEF |
2 |
Philadelphia |
Phi/7 |
147 |
0 |
12.03 |
80 |
WR |
26 |
Torrey Smith |
Bal/8 |
134 |
0 |
8.04 |
81 |
QB |
9 |
Matt Ryan |
Atl/7 |
299 |
0 |
7.10 |
82 |
PK |
2 |
Mason Crosby |
GB/10 |
130 |
0 |
15.07 |
83 |
QB |
10 |
Tony Romo |
Dal/5 |
299 |
0 |
5.08 |
84 |
DEF |
3 |
Baltimore |
Bal/8 |
146 |
-1 |
12.10 |
85 |
WR |
27 |
Jeremy Maclin |
Phi/7 |
133 |
-1 |
6.02 |
86 |
TE |
5 |
Vernon Davis |
SF/9 |
116 |
-1 |
7.01 |
87 |
TE |
6 |
Jason Witten |
Dal/5 |
116 |
-1 |
7.03 |
88 |
PK |
3 |
David Akers |
SF/9 |
128 |
-2 |
16.04 |
89 |
DEF |
4 |
Chicago |
Chi/6 |
144 |
-2 |
13.02 |
90 |
RB |
40 |
James Starks |
GB/10 |
98 |
-3 |
9.04 |
91 |
WR |
28 |
Brandon Lloyd |
NE/9 |
131 |
-4 |
6.08 |
92 |
WR |
29 |
Eric Decker |
Den/7 |
130 |
-4 |
8.02 |
93 |
PK |
4 |
Randy Bullock |
Hou/8 |
125 |
-4 |
25.10 |
94 |
PK |
5 |
Garrett Hartley |
NO/6 |
125 |
-4 |
18.08 |
95 |
TE |
7 |
Jermichael Finley |
GB/10 |
113 |
-4 |
7.06 |
96 |
PK |
6 |
Nate Kaeding |
SD/7 |
125 |
-5 |
20.10 |
97 |
DEF |
5 |
New York Jets |
NYJ/9 |
141 |
-5 |
16.01 |
98 |
PK |
7 |
Jason Hanson |
Det/5 |
124 |
-5 |
20.04 |
99 |
DEF |
6 |
Pittsburgh |
Pit/4 |
141 |
-5 |
12.07 |
100 |
DEF |
7 |
New England |
NE/9 |
140 |
-5 |
17.06 |
When looking at the VBD spots from player 51 through 100, the wide receivers start catching up, the value at quarterback and tight end is still apparent. As discussed above, having studs is the only way to gain an advantage. For this reason, an owner who loads up on running backs early on can still get studs at the other positions through the first ten rounds. This is why the kickers are actually a decent play when the value running back and wideout plateaus.
Every league is different but this article should help you form a winning strategy in smaller leagues.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to tefertiller@footballguys.com. Also, I am on Twitter so feel free to ask me questions there.

