For the seventh year in a row, I'm going to write about a good starting point for your quarterback projections/rankings. My Rearview QB article analyzes the production of every quarterback from the prior season after adjusting his performance for partial games played and strength of schedule. If you're a first time reader, here's my argument in a nutshell: using last year's regular end-of-year data is the lazy man's method. When analyzing a quarterback, many look at a passer's total fantasy points or fantasy points per game average from the prior season and then tweak the numbers based on offseason changes and personal preferences. But a more accurate starting point for your projections is a normalized version of last year's stats.

First, prognosticators should use adjusted games (and not total games) to give a more precise picture of how often the quarterback played. Second, you should adjust for strength of schedule, because a quarterback who faced a really hard schedule should get a boost relative to those who played easy opponents most weeks.

Let me be clear on something: this should be merely the starting point for your QB projections. If you think a particular player carries significant injury risk, or is going to face a hard schedule again, feel free to downgrade him after making these adjustments. (And it should go without saying that if you think a quarterback will improve or decline - or his supporting case will improve or decline - you must factor that in as well.) But those are all subjective questions that everyone answers differently; this analysis is meant to be objective. The point isn't to ignore whether a quarterback is injury prone or projects to have a really hard or easy schedule in 2012; the point is to delay that analysis. First we see how the player performed on the field last year, controlling for strength of schedule and missed time; then you factor in whatever variables you like when projecting the 2012 season. The important thing to consider is that ignoring partial games and strength of schedule is a surefire way to misjudge a player's actual ability level. There's a big difference between a quarterback who produced 300 fantasy points against an easy schedule while playing every game than a quarterback with 300 FPs against the league's toughest schedule while missing 3.6 games.

Adjusted games are calculated by taking each quarterback's pass plus rush attempts in a game and dividing them by all of the team's passing and rushing attempts by all quarterbacks in that game. Below is a list of how each quarterback ranked in fantasy points per adjusted game, with a minimum of four adjusted games. The scoring system used is 5 point per passing/rushing TD, 1 point per 20 yards passing, -2 per INT, 1 point for every 10 yards rushing and 6 points for every rushing TD. The league average QB scored 19.45 FP/G in 2011.

Looking at partial games helps to isolate performance versus playing time. Aaron Rodgers finished second in fantasy points, but he was a full 2.5 FP/AdjG ahead of Drew Brees. Michael Vick missed some time, but he was very good when healthy. He's a risk to stay on the field, but not to produce.

Mark Sanchez actually ranked as the 10th best fantasy quarterback last season, but his new teammate was more productive on a per-adjusted game basis. Carson Palmer and Matt Schaub both played in 10 games last season, and may not be on the radar of your average fantasy player. Both look like high upside QB2 options in 2012.

But before digging too deep into the analysis, we need to take a look at each quarterback's strength of schedule. A positive number indicates a hard schedule.

The AFC North had it tough last year, with Dalton, Flacco and Roethlisberger having some of the hardest fantasy schedules in 2011. They played the NFC West, and as a result, John Skelton, Tarvaris Jackson and Alex Smith also had schedules that were at least 1.0 FP/G harder than average. On the other hand, quarterbacks in the AFC West and NFC North – whose teams also played each other – had some of the easiest schedules. Stafford and Rodgers were able to put up great numbers in at least small part thanks to easy schedules, while it appears that players like Cassel, Ponder and Orton would have looked even worse with an average schedule in 2011. Note that these strength of schedule ratings are themselves adjusted, so Rodgers' schedule doesn't look easy because the defenses he played allowed a lot of fantasy points to opposing QBs -- and the reason those defenses have bad numbers is because they played Rodgers and Stafford. Rather, the adjustments to the defenses and the quarterbacks are both iterated hundreds of times until the results converge, eliminating this issue.

The table below shows how each quarterback ranked in Adjusted Fantasy Points per Adjusted Game:

The Big 3 of Rodgers, Brady and Brees unsurprisingly top this list. And while Brees was slightly better than Brady last year, the addition of Brandon Lloyd in New England and the losses of Sean Payton and Robert Meachem in New Orleans can explain why Brady is being drafted ahead of Brees in 2012.

The next mini-tier, according to average draft position data, consists of just Matt Stafford and Cam Newton. I'm not sure either appeal to me at their price – a late second round pick – but Stafford in particular seems overrated. His numbers last season were built on a mind-boggling 663 pass attempts last season, and he's likely to see that number drop by at least 10% in 2012. Even when he led the league in pass attempts in 2011, he was still far behind Rodgers, Brady and Brees as a fantasy player.

Another reason not to reach on Stafford? Vick and Romo don't project as significantly worse, and can be had three full rounds later. Vick in particular is an enticing option. He averaged more AdjFP/AdjG in 2010 than Rodgers averaged in 2011. And while he regressed somewhat last year, he was still an excellent passer. The big reason his fantasy value sank was that his rushing touchdowns dropped from 9 to 1, and I'd expect that number to settle on middle ground this year. There's obvious injury risk, but he has the most upside of any quarterback outside of the Big 3 and can be had several rounds later.

If Vick's injury history scares you, Matt Ryan appears to be the best value among the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks. If your choice is Eli Manning at the end of the fourth or Matt Ryan at the end of the sixth, Ryan looks to be a much better value to me.

Jay Cutler, at least based on the numbers above, appears to be overrated. I understand the addition of Brandon Marshall, but Cutler was not much of a fantasy factor last year. He had an extremely easy schedule, and three of his best four games came against bottom-five defenses. Matt Schaub looks to have more upside and a higher floor for roughly the same price. Schaub seemed overrated to me last year as QB8, but as QB14, he's a much better option.

Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco could be value plays if their schedule lightens up. Both are improving quarterbacks who faced extremely difficult schedules last year, but ranked higher in AdjFP/AdjG than their ADP is for this season.

Team Defenses

Which defenses were the toughest for opposing quarterbacks in 2011? The two stingiest defenses for opposing quarterbacks both have Rex Ryan ties. Minnesota had the worst fantasy defense based on the raw numbers, but the Vikings had a brutal schedule. After adjusting for the strength of the opposing quarterbacks, the Patriots fall to #32.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.