Trent Richardson enters the NFL as the most-hyped rookie prospect since Adrian Peterson. There are few questions surrounding Richardson's skill set: he is a tough, in-between-the-tackles runner, skilled as a receiver, and can be an explosive, big-play runner. Every rookie has question marks, but should you also shy away from drafting Richardson in redraft leagues because he plays for the Browns? Make no mistake, Cleveland's offense has been horrible the past four years. Consider:
Each of the past four seasons, the Browns have ranked in the bottom four in both yards and points, ranking 31st, 32nd, 29th and 29th in yards and 30th, 29th, 31st and 30th in points from 2008 to 2011, respectively. So should we be hesitant on Richardson because of the anemic offense he'll be joining? I don't think so, for four reasons.
1) I looked at the 41 running backs drafted with a top-20 pick since 1990 and noted the quality of the offense they were joining. I ranked the offenses in reverse order, i.e., ranking last in a category is assigned a rank of 1, ranking second to last is a rank of 2, etc. The table below shows each running back, the year he was drafted, the team he joined, his team's rank (from the bottom) in both yards and points scored the prior season, the average of the team's rank in yards and points, the draft pick used on the player, and where he ranked among fantasy running backs his rookie season.
Running Back |
Year |
Team |
Team's Rank Prior Year |
Pick |
FtsyRk |
||
Yards |
Points |
Avg |
|||||
James Stewart |
1995 |
JAX |
expansion team |
19 |
43 |
||
Cedric Benson |
2005 |
CHI |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
89 |
Emmitt Smith |
1990 |
DAL |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
17 |
9 |
Warrick Dunn |
1997 |
TAM |
3 |
1 |
2 |
12 |
12 |
Leonard Russell |
1991 |
NWE |
3 |
1 |
2 |
14 |
24 |
Thomas Jones |
2000 |
ARI |
3 |
2 |
2.5 |
7 |
41 |
Trent Richardson |
2012 |
CLE |
4 |
3 |
3.5 |
-- |
-- |
C.J. Spiller |
2010 |
BUF |
3 |
5 |
4 |
9 |
61 |
William Green |
2002 |
CLE |
1 |
7 |
4 |
16 |
30 |
Tyrone Wheatley |
1995 |
NYG |
1 |
7 |
4 |
17 |
67 |
Ronnie Brown |
2005 |
MIA |
4 |
5 |
4.5 |
2 |
23 |
Marshall Faulk |
1994 |
IND |
7 |
2 |
4.5 |
2 |
3 |
Jonathan Stewart |
2008 |
CAR |
4 |
6 |
5 |
13 |
27 |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
2001 |
SDG |
4 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
Tim Biakabutuka |
1996 |
CAR |
5 |
5 |
5 |
8 |
92 |
Steve Broussard |
1990 |
ATL |
5 |
7 |
6 |
20 |
42 |
Marshawn Lynch |
2007 |
BUF |
3 |
10 |
6.5 |
12 |
14 |
Ricky Williams |
1999 |
NOR |
3 |
10 |
6.5 |
5 |
28 |
Reggie Bush |
2006 |
NOR |
13 |
2 |
7.5 |
2 |
10 |
Blair Thomas |
1990 |
NYJ |
12 |
3 |
7.5 |
2 |
39 |
Adrian Peterson |
2007 |
MIN |
10 |
7 |
8.5 |
7 |
5 |
Curtis Enis |
1998 |
CHI |
14 |
3 |
8.5 |
5 |
60 |
Ki-Jana Carter |
1995 |
CIN |
11 |
6 |
8.5 |
1 |
-- |
Garrison Hearst |
1993 |
PHO |
12 |
5 |
8.5 |
3 |
81 |
Darren McFadden |
2008 |
OAK |
8 |
10 |
9 |
4 |
42 |
Napoleon Kaufman |
1995 |
OAK |
10 |
10 |
10 |
18 |
56 |
Cadillac Williams |
2005 |
TAM |
11 |
10 |
10.5 |
5 |
20 |
Tommy Vardell |
1992 |
CLE |
10 |
13 |
11.5 |
9 |
68 |
Eddie George |
1996 |
HOU |
8 |
16 |
12 |
14 |
9 |
Lawrence Phillips |
1996 |
STL |
16 |
9 |
12.5 |
6 |
39 |
T.J. Duckett |
2002 |
ATL |
17 |
9 |
13 |
18 |
43 |
Jamal Lewis |
2000 |
BAL |
8 |
18 |
13 |
5 |
17 |
Ron Dayne |
2000 |
NYG |
15 |
12 |
13.5 |
11 |
34 |
Shaun Alexander |
2000 |
SEA |
9 |
20 |
14.5 |
19 |
59 |
Edgerrin James |
1999 |
IND |
19 |
12 |
15.5 |
4 |
2 |
Jerome Bettis |
1993 |
RAM |
16 |
17 |
16.5 |
10 |
3 |
Robert Edwards |
1998 |
NWE |
16 |
23 |
19.5 |
18 |
9 |
Darrell Thompson |
1990 |
GNB |
23 |
21 |
22 |
19 |
90 |
Tony Smith |
1992 |
ATL |
21 |
24 |
22.5 |
19 |
73 |
Knowshon Moreno |
2009 |
DEN |
31 |
17 |
24 |
12 |
17 |
Ryan Mathews |
2010 |
SDG |
23 |
29 |
26 |
12 |
30 |
Fred Taylor |
1998 |
JAX |
24 |
28 |
26 |
9 |
4 |
Emmitt Smith joined the 1-15 Cowboys who were hopeless on offense, yet he was a top-10 fantasy running back as a rookie. Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson joined bad offenses but were fantasy superstars out of the gate. Of course, those players are three of the best running backs in league history. Is it fair to compare them to Richardson?
Perhaps not, but in general, there was no noticeable correlation between a running back's fantasy production and the quality of offense he went to as a rookie. When Cedric Benson joined the Bears, Chicago had ranked last in both points and yards. Benson's rookie season, a Bears running back ended up as a top-10 fantasy producer. Of course that player was Thomas Jones, and not Benson, but the point remains that a horrible offense in one year doesn't prevent strong fantasy production by a running back the next season.
2) There's no guarantee that the Browns offense will again struggle. Assuming Brandon Weeden starts at quarterback, Cleveland's offense will look significantly different in 2012 than it did in 2011. Richardson is a good receiver, which means he'll be able to produce even if the Browns are forced to pass later in games. Since Richardson is a three-down back, the downside of playing for a bad offense is minimized. Cleveland has a strong offensive line, and with good quarterback play, could be a surprise team in 2012.
3) Just two years ago, on a horrible Browns offense, Peyton Hillis was the No. 2 fantasy running back. Hillis, like Richardson, is a powerful running back with soft hands, and he was able to catch 61 passes and score 13 touchdowns that season. Fantasy owners won't care if the Browns rank in the Bottom 5 in passing yards, passing touchdowns, total yards and points if the offense revolves around the running back. That's exactly the situation that helped Hillis in his monster 2010 season.
4) Last year, Maurice Jones-Drew finished as a top-four running back in every major scoring system despite playing for an offense bound to be worse than the 2012 Browns. Last year, Jacksonville ranked last in total yards, last in passing yards, last in passing yards per attempt, last in passing first downs and last in total first downs. But Jones-Drew was a fantasy star because he's an elite talent and the offense revolved around him. He led the league in rushing attempts and averaged 4.7 yards per carry, while catching 43 passes. On a better offense he would have scored more often, but Jones-Drew was good enough to be a fantasy stud.
If you believe in Richardson's talents, don't let the lack of a quality supporting cast downgrade Richardson on your draft board too much. Chances are, the rest of your league will do more than enough to let you get him for value. Monitor his average draft position closely, but don't be afraid to reach for Richardson: he is one of the few players you can expect to get 300+ touches.
As always, feel free to provide comments or suggestions to stuart@footballguys.com.

