Welcome back to Footballguys.com's annual installment of the Defensive Team By Committee article. Believe it or not, this is the 10th straight year I've been lucky enough to publish this column. I've received a lot of great feedback over the years which has helped make this such a successful series.

We all know that fantasy defenses are inconsistent from year to year, so predicting which defenses and special teams (D/STs) will do well is difficult. The San Francisco 49ers ended up with the #1 defense last season despite going undrafted in many leagues. When you get to the end of your fantasy drafts, most of us have to choose among a large group of defenses based on little more than gut. The goal of this article is to give you great production out of one of the spots in your lineup while saving your most important draft picks for the rest of your fantasy roster.

We spend countless hours analyzing team offenses, and relatively few thinking about team defenses. But an average defense against a bad offense will do just as well as a great defense against an average offense. The key to the DTBC system is to find two teams available late in your draft, whose combined schedule features predominantly weak offenses. Since you start your defense based on matchups, and your D/ST will usually oppose a weak offense, your D/ST position will score lots of fantasy points. At least, that's the plan.

When picking a D/ST committee, you should look for four factors:

A very easy combined schedule

Two teams with late average draft positions (ADPs)

Big play ability - think pass rushers and defensive backs with good hands

Reason to expect improvement in 2012

Last year, Jeff Pasquino and I advocated selecting the Detroit Lions and the Tennessee Titans as your fantasy defenses. We suggested alternating them in certain weeks, focusing on which offenses Footballguys figured (at the time) would present the best matchups. As it turned out, had you followed that exact advice given in August, you would have had the #2 ranked fantasy defense in terms of fantasy points production. That result is not achieved thanks to 20/20 vision, i.e., selecting the defense that scored the most points each week; it's calculated by adding up the numbers recorded each week based on the August projection. And getting that #2 defense was accomplished by selecting two defenses that, on average, were not drafted among the top ten defenses in fantasy leagues. As you can imagine, a lot of people who followed the DTBC advice last year were happy fantasy footballers. I'm going to do my best to accomplish the same results this year.

The first step in creating the DTBC system is to grade the offenses. I've used the Footballguys.com projections to rank the offenses, scoring them the following way: (0.3 x Points scored) + (0.03 x Total Yards) - (2 x Turnovers). Each team's projection is shown in the first column in the table, along with their projected rank, and how they ranked under the scoring system in 2011. Don't think I've forgotten about those leagues with heavy sack bonuses: we'll absolutely keep pass rushers in mind when we select our DTBC.

The Dolphins, without Brandon Marshall and with perhaps a rookie at quarterback, become one of the more attractive fantasy options for your fantasy defense to face. The Rams, Jaguars and Browns, bottom five offenses last year, still project as among the worst offenses in the league. You may have slightly different views on the ordering of the teams above, but for the most part, I think we would agree that the teams at the bottom of the chart are the ones you want your fantasy defense facing.

After grading the offenses, I went through the NFL schedule and assigned the corresponding projection for each opponent that every team played. When a team's D/ST is on the road, an additional three points are added to the opposing team's offensive grade; when the D/ST is at home, three points are subtracted from the opposition. For example, when the Cardinals host the Seahawks in Week 1, Arizona's D/ST receives 262 points; when the Cardinals travel to Seattle in Week 14, the Cardinals' D/ST matchup is worth 268 points, since playing on the road is worse for fantasy defenses. Obviously, you want your committee to have the lowest possible number of combined points. Bye weeks are valued at 500 points to avoid combining D/STs that share the same bye week. After doing this for every game in every week, we can now rank each team's schedule and pair up the defenses to form the best possible committee. One note: I'm ranking the committees through sixteen weeks, as most fantasy leagues don't play in Week 17. However, things lined up slightly differently this year...

2012 Defensive Team by Committee

Buffalo Bills (ADP: D/ST 12)

DE Mario Williams, DE Mark Anderson/Chris Kelsay, DT Marcell Dareus, DT Kyle Williams

SLB Kirk Morrison, WLB Nick Barnett, MLB Kelvin Sheppard/Bryan Scott

CB Terrence McGee, Stephon Gilmore, Aaron Williams

S: Jarius Byrd (FS), George Wilson (SS)

Buffalo is moving to a 4-3 scheme under new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt. The Bills are building a formidable defense similar to what the Lions have done on the other side of Lake Erie. Two years ago, Kyle Williams was one of the most dominant defensive players in the league, a devastating interior lineman who lacked a competent supporting cast. Last year, Buffalo spent the third pick in the draft on Marcell Dareus, who proved immediately that he could be an impact player at the next level. This off-season, Buffalo addressed the outside of the line, adding megastar Mario Williams and veteran Mark Anderson, who had 10 sacks in New England a year ago. Along with the Giants and Lions, Buffalo will field arguably the most talented and devastating front four in the league in 2012. Chris Kelsay is moving back to defensive end this season, and should team with Anderson to provide a strong presence opposite Mario Williams. And while Shawne Merriman can't be counted on for much, if he makes it to the opening day roster, he presents excellent upside as a situational pass rusher as part of a potentially dominant Buffalo line.

The linebacker corps may be the defense's Achilles heel, although Nick Barnett is still an above-average player. Kelvin Sheppard had an impressive rookie season, as the third rounder out of LSU had an immediate impact in Buffalo in 2011; Bryan Scott will likely be the inside linebacker in nickel packages. Kirk Morrison and Arthur Moats will battle for the other outside linebacker spot.

The secondary got a boost when the Bills drafted South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore with the tenth pick in the draft. Playing opposite Terrence McGee, Gilmore is an exciting prospect who will likely start as a rookie. Along with Aaron Williams, Buffalo is as deep at cornerback as they've been in years. Jairus Byrd and George Wilson form one of the game's best safety tandems; Byrd in particular should flourish with the improvements at cornerback and on the defensive line, and may again challenge for the league lead in interceptions as he did as a rookie in 2009. Justin Rogers and C.J. Spiller provide a spark in the return game, and only increase the value of the Bills defense if your league awards special teams touchdowns to your fantasy defense.

Which defense should you pair with the Bills? Because of how excited I am about the prospect of Buffalo's defense, along with their relatively low draft position and easy schedule, this year's DTBC is more like “Buffalo and the most compatible D/ST that falls to your slot.” Buffalo has only four weeks where you would be concerned and conceivably want to start another defense: the two matchups against the Patriots, the bye week, and when the Bills travel to Houston. The rest of their games are against the Dolphins and Jets, the Browns and Chiefs, the NFC West, and the remainder of the AFC South.

Miami, for example, lines up nicely with Buffalo, and you likely claim them off of waivers in most leagues. The Dolphins play Arizona and Tennessee the weeks the Bills face New England, and the Jets and Colts when Buffalo has a bye and travels to Houston.

If they're still around by your last or second to last pick, the Chargers are an even better option. San Diego faces the Chiefs, Browns, Chiefs and Bucs during those weeks. That's the most attractive schedule during Weeks 4, 8, 9 and 10, the only weeks of the season where Buffalo's D/ST has an opponent rating of over 290 points. Detroit, Tennessee, Miami, Seattle and Oakland had the five easiest schedules after the Chargers.

In any event, pair up the Bills with one of those teams, and you should be in good shape. Here's the combined schedule if you go with Buffalo and San Diego (currently an ADP of D/ST 18):

Week 1: @New York Jets (285)

Week 2: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (253)

Week 3: @Cleveland Browns (220)

Week 4: @Kansas City Chiefs (259) --- [San Diego]

Week 5: @San Francisco 49ers (286)

Week 6: @Arizona Cardinals (259)

Week 7: vs. Tennessee Titans (258)

Week 8: @Cleveland Browns (220) --- [San Diego]

Week 9: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (253) --- [San Diego]

Week 10: @Tampa Bay Buccaneers (259) --- [San Diego]

Week 11: vs. Miami Dolphins (232)

Week 12: @Indianapolis Colts (254)

Week 13: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (225)

Week 14: vs. St. Louis Rams (230)

Week 15: vs. Seattle Seahawks (262)

Week 16: @Miami Dolphins (238)

If your league plays its championship game in week 17, the Bills host the Jets that week, which could be another nice matchup for Buffalo. In any event, this combined schedule gives you three games against the Chiefs, two games against the Dolphins and two games against the Browns, along with four games against the quarterback-challenged NFC West. Along with matchups against Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Tampa Bay, there are many attractive weeks for your fantasy defense.

Grabbing Just One?

In some leagues, it's just too costly to spend two rosters spots on defenses. In larger leagues, it may not be feasible to grab two defenses that you like. If you're only drafting one defense, it still pays to know the ability level of its opponents. The full list is presented below: Note that both the bye week (which was considered a 500 point week earlier in the article) and Week 17 have been removed. The Bills remain an excellent option for you to grab, but any AFC East team could be valuable in most leagues.

All of the Combos

Finally, here are all 496 combinations, presented in the table below.

If you've still got any questions after all that, please e-mail me at stuart@footballguys.com.